OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[wbrocks67]

If Josh Mandel is doing performance art then what is JD Vance doing? He's doing the same thing. It's clear Vance believes nothing he says.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They need to poll this state we need this seat the R gerrymandering in WI is horrendous we need OH in order to pick up 51/52 seats pending the Runoff in GA, I knew Rs were gonna make it hard for D's to beat Johnson

[Pollster]

Am increasingly hearing rumblings that Matt Dolan is increasing his polling numbers very aggressively. Nobody outright predicting a win yet, but many predicting last-minute attention and a "Never Trumper" media circus.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Am increasingly hearing rumblings that Matt Dolan is increasing his polling numbers very aggressively. Nobody outright predicting a win yet, but many predicting last-minute attention and a "Never Trumper" media circus.

He won't win. His ceiling is low because he's viewed as the "anti-Trump candidate". There's no way undecideds are going his way.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

If Josh Mandel is doing performance art then what is JD Vance doing? He's doing the same thing. It's clear Vance believes nothing he says.

How exactly is it clear..? Vance's shift in views coincided with his conversion to Catholicism.. abundantly clear he he had a legitimate change in world view.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Am increasingly hearing rumblings that Matt Dolan is increasing his polling numbers very aggressively. Nobody outright predicting a win yet, but many predicting last-minute attention and a "Never Trumper" media circus.

He is increasing his poll numbers (from recent independent and internal data such as Fox and Fabrizio)... from a single digit base. Dolan will receive around 15%, and we'll be wondering what all the hype was about.. 

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Josh Mandel is doing performance art then what is JD Vance doing? He's doing the same thing. It's clear Vance believes nothing he says.

How exactly is it clear..? Vance's shift in views coincided with his conversion to Catholicism.. abundantly clear he he had a legitimate change in world view.

That is true. Even people who were friends or close to him (many of which are extremely critical of him now) say he was genuinely radicalized during the Trump presidency.

[Pollster]

A pollster friend of mine is currently running a rolling tracker (basically means a daily poll of ~200 respondents per day, with the most recent 3 days making up the traditional "full sample" done by pollsters to catch in-the-moment movement in fluid races) of the GOP primary for one of the main Democratic super PAC's and says that Vance and Mandel have plateaued at roughly 20-25% of the vote each, Dolan is increasing by about 1% per day, Gibbons crashing, Timken plateauing at about 10%, and undecided understandably dropping steadily as well. Appears that most undecided are opting for Dolan, though he claims "reason to believe" they will more likely break for Vance. Says the trajectory, if it holds, points to a Vance win with Dolan narrowly topping Mandel for second.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't know why they won't poll the GE the primary is this Tuesday so I hope they hurry up so I can go back to donating to Ryan, I refuse to donate until they show us more polls even to Barnes they won't poll that race either, I won't donate to him until there is a poll

I wish them the best luck but I won't donate to them until there's darn poll, GA is important but it's not the only race

The polling industry is silly polling NY Gov and GA

[BuckeyeNut]

A pollster friend of mine is currently running a rolling tracker (basically means a daily poll of ~200 respondents per day, with the most recent 3 days making up the traditional "full sample" done by pollsters to catch in-the-moment movement in fluid races) of the GOP primary for one of the main Democratic super PAC's and says that Vance and Mandel have plateaued at roughly 20-25% of the vote each, Dolan is increasing by about 1% per day, Gibbons crashing, Timken plateauing at about 10%, and undecided understandably dropping steadily as well. Appears that most undecided are opting for Dolan, though he claims "reason to believe" they will more likely break for Vance. Says the trajectory, if it holds, points to a Vance win with Dolan narrowly topping Mandel for second.

That's interesting. I had the sense Timken's supporters were going to Dolan without anyone else "sane" to support, while Mandel cannibalized Gibbons and the vast majority of undecided voters broke for Vance.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Dolan is probably the choice of strong DeWine backers.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Given Cleveland's decline and the WWC particuarly in white rural areas becoming a solid GOP block, do you guys think Dems actually even have the votes to win statewide in Ohio at this point barring extreme circumstances?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Given Cleveland's decline and the WWC particuarly in white rural areas becoming a solid GOP block, do you guys think Dems actually even have the votes to win statewide in Ohio at this point barring extreme circumstances?

We need a poll and they won't give it but Frank was down in WWC IA 45/42 if there is such a Decline in WWC Franken would be down 10


It's not all about WWC Sherrod Brown won because there is a significant Arab and BLK population combine that with White females D's get 55/60% that equates to ,50% we need a GE poll

[xavier110]

A pollster friend of mine is currently running a rolling tracker (basically means a daily poll of ~200 respondents per day, with the most recent 3 days making up the traditional "full sample" done by pollsters to catch in-the-moment movement in fluid races) of the GOP primary for one of the main Democratic super PAC's and says that Vance and Mandel have plateaued at roughly 20-25% of the vote each, Dolan is increasing by about 1% per day, Gibbons crashing, Timken plateauing at about 10%, and undecided understandably dropping steadily as well. Appears that most undecided are opting for Dolan, though he claims "reason to believe" they will more likely break for Vance. Says the trajectory, if it holds, points to a Vance win with Dolan narrowly topping Mandel for second.

Dolan doing well would be nice. I’d vote for him if I were in Ohio. I wish my AZ GOP primary options, should I choose to vote there (and I probably will to stop Kari Lake, plus there are few contested D primary races for me), included a semi-reasonable option like him.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

imo Dolan has a real chance to win this and is likely coming in at least 2nd.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course he's gonna say this, Biden is at 42% in the polls but we still have to vote and nothing is over until the Final tally

But, where is Garland, the Insurrectionists commission is ongoing and still no Prosecution

[ElectionsGuy]

[ ] Matt Dolan
[ ] Mike Gibbons
[ ] Josh Mandel
[ ] Neil Patel
[ ] Mark Pukita
[ ] Jane Timken
[ ] J.D. Vance

• Write-in: J.P. J.D. Mandel

[Ferguson97]

[ ] Matt Dolan
[ ] Mike Gibbons
[ ] Josh Mandel
[ ] Neil Patel
[ ] Mark Pukita
[ ] Jane Timken
[ ] J.D. Vance

• Write-in: J.P. J.D. Mandel
  

Dumb question, what is the legal mechanism if a non-existent person won a write-in election?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[ ] Matt Dolan
[ ] Mike Gibbons
[ ] Josh Mandel
[ ] Neil Patel
[ ] Mark Pukita
[ ] Jane Timken
[ ] J.D. Vance

• Write-in: J.P. J.D. Mandel
  

Dumb question, what is the legal mechanism if a non-existent person won a write-in election?

Why are you so worried about an R primary, just like Solid he has an R NUT MAP AND ALL THE INC D GOVS HAVE GOOD APPROVALS THE QUESTION is JOHNSON AND HE ONLY WON BY 200K voted

Gas prices are going down and Ryan can win in a wave insurance Environment he is our 52nd seat after WI/PA should GA go to a Runoff

I told you about those approval 45%, Biden Approvals is close to 50% with high D Turnout

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Franken is down only 3 pts to Grassley and he is an incumbent, Ryan can beat Tea Party Vance whom isn t Rob Portman

[BuckeyeNut]

[ ] Matt Dolan
[ ] Mike Gibbons
[ ] Josh Mandel
[ ] Neil Patel
[ ] Mark Pukita
[ ] Jane Timken
[ ] J.D. Vance

• Write-in: J.P. J.D. Mandel
  

Dumb question, what is the legal mechanism if a non-existent person won a write-in election?

Nothing.

You can, in theory, write in whoever you want. However, valid write-in candidates still have to qualify for the ballot in Ohio and most other states. A fictional person cannot do that.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

[ ] Matt Dolan
[ ] Mike Gibbons
[ ] Josh Mandel
[ ] Neil Patel
[ ] Mark Pukita
[ ] Jane Timken
[ ] J.D. Vance

• Write-in: J.P. J.D. Mandel
  

Dumb question, what is the legal mechanism if a non-existent person won a write-in election?

Nothing.

You can, in theory, write in whoever you want. However, valid write-in candidates still have to qualify for the ballot in Ohio and most other states. A fictional person cannot do that.

What if Dolan Changes his legal name to “J.P. Mandel’ before Election Day.
 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JDMandelforOhio/status/1520931017149853696

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

lol apparently the Mandel camp has been spreading a rumor that Peter Thiel paid Trump to endorse Vance

[ibagli]

[ ] Matt Dolan
[ ] Mike Gibbons
[ ] Josh Mandel
[ ] Neil Patel
[ ] Mark Pukita
[ ] Jane Timken
[ ] J.D. Vance

• Write-in: J.P. J.D. Mandel
  

Dumb question, what is the legal mechanism if a non-existent person won a write-in election?

Nothing.

You can, in theory, write in whoever you want. However, valid write-in candidates still have to qualify for the ballot in Ohio and most other states. A fictional person cannot do that.

Ohio doesn't even print the write-in line on the ballot when there's no registered write-in candidate, so it's not possible to write anyone in for this race.