Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

I have previously posted various articles regarding the Partisan Movement and activities within Russia on multiple occasions.

This Newsweek story does not require a paywall, but breaks down some of the various political-military formations involved in Anti-Kremlin militant activism.

Tons more info on the original links, but it is becoming increasingly clear that Russian Anti-War Militants appear to be becoming increasingly active as of of the links shut down when it comes to legitimate protest, and now the next step is to active resistance.

Naturally the obvious question is what might Russia look like if the regime falls at some point, but it is already clear that repression of alternative voices might start to look increasingly shaky, especially with the Russian "Milbloggers" effectively exposing the fact that the "Emperor Has No Clothes".

*** NO PAYWALL REQUIRED- LINK AT BOTTOM OF POST ***

While relatively little is known about these rebel outfits complicit in activities considered terroristic by Moscow, Newsweek spoke with experts who have done extensive research into the groups and representatives of the militias themselves to provide new insights into the aims and tactics of four key insurgent organizations as well as their potential links to foreign governments such as Ukraine.

Webber noted that beyond their shared opposition to Putin and his policies, the groups are widely diverse ideologically, ranging from far-left anarcho-communists to ultra-right neo-fascists. Their tactics are similarly diverse, with some focusing on dismantling railroads while others claim raids from Ukraine into Russia and the killing of prominent supporters of the war effort.

Announced in August 2022 and led by known far-right ideologue Denis Nikitin, the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) made international headlines last month when it claimed a cross-border raid in two villages of the western Russian province of Bryansk that official Russian reports say killed two civilians and injured two others. Using a sophisticated social media presence, the RVC published videos from within Russian territory to back up its claims of responsibility.

The National Republican Army (NRA) also rose to prominence in August 2022 after exiled Russian parliamentarian Ilya Ponomarev claimed the group was behind the assassination of pro-war Russian journalist Darya Dugina, daughter of right-wing philosopher Alexander Dugin, outside of Moscow. Ponomarev claimed to have direct ties to the group, and said the NRA was additionally behind a series of arsons against military sites prior to Dugina's slaying.

The founding of the far-left Combat Organization of Anarcho-Communists (commonly known by its Russian acronym, BOAK) actually preceded the war in Ukraine, with its official blog in existence since at least September 2020, while affiliated channels date back to 2018 and other evidence of the group has been seen as far back as 2016.

Out of the four major groups claiming attacks within Russia, the least is known about the one that calls itself Black Bridge.

Like the RVC and NRA, Black Bridge first garnered significant attention in August 2022 by calling for action to disrupt the internationally unrecognized referendums held by Russia to annex the Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. But its first major operation is believed to be an apparent attack last month on a Rostov-on-Don FSB office that reportedly killed four people and injured five others.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/meet-the-russian-rebel-groups-waging-war-from-within-putin-s-own-borders/ar-AA19OetP?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=56e31adf3c8d4c4f80bfcb24bf1306a2&ei=43

[Logical]

It's real...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1646622737580933121

Non zero chance we get to see Leopard 1 and T-55 duke it out in a few months. The irony is that this is 2023 not 1973...

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I have previously posted various articles regarding the Partisan Movement and activities within Russia on multiple occasions.

This Newsweek story does not require a paywall, but breaks down some of the various political-military formations involved in Anti-Kremlin militant activism.

Tons more info on the original links, but it is becoming increasingly clear that Russian Anti-War Militants appear to be becoming increasingly active as of of the links shut down when it comes to legitimate protest, and now the next step is to active resistance.

Naturally the obvious question is what might Russia look like if the regime falls at some point, but it is already clear that repression of alternative voices might start to look increasingly shaky, especially with the Russian "Milbloggers" effectively exposing the fact that the "Emperor Has No Clothes".

*** NO PAYWALL REQUIRED- LINK AT BOTTOM OF POST ***

While relatively little is known about these rebel outfits complicit in activities considered terroristic by Moscow, Newsweek spoke with experts who have done extensive research into the groups and representatives of the militias themselves to provide new insights into the aims and tactics of four key insurgent organizations as well as their potential links to foreign governments such as Ukraine.

Webber noted that beyond their shared opposition to Putin and his policies, the groups are widely diverse ideologically, ranging from far-left anarcho-communists to ultra-right neo-fascists. Their tactics are similarly diverse, with some focusing on dismantling railroads while others claim raids from Ukraine into Russia and the killing of prominent supporters of the war effort.

Announced in August 2022 and led by known far-right ideologue Denis Nikitin, the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) made international headlines last month when it claimed a cross-border raid in two villages of the western Russian province of Bryansk that official Russian reports say killed two civilians and injured two others. Using a sophisticated social media presence, the RVC published videos from within Russian territory to back up its claims of responsibility.

The National Republican Army (NRA) also rose to prominence in August 2022 after exiled Russian parliamentarian Ilya Ponomarev claimed the group was behind the assassination of pro-war Russian journalist Darya Dugina, daughter of right-wing philosopher Alexander Dugin, outside of Moscow. Ponomarev claimed to have direct ties to the group, and said the NRA was additionally behind a series of arsons against military sites prior to Dugina's slaying.

The founding of the far-left Combat Organization of Anarcho-Communists (commonly known by its Russian acronym, BOAK) actually preceded the war in Ukraine, with its official blog in existence since at least September 2020, while affiliated channels date back to 2018 and other evidence of the group has been seen as far back as 2016.

Out of the four major groups claiming attacks within Russia, the least is known about the one that calls itself Black Bridge.

Like the RVC and NRA, Black Bridge first garnered significant attention in August 2022 by calling for action to disrupt the internationally unrecognized referendums held by Russia to annex the Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. But its first major operation is believed to be an apparent attack last month on a Rostov-on-Don FSB office that reportedly killed four people and injured five others.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/meet-the-russian-rebel-groups-waging-war-from-within-putin-s-own-borders/ar-AA19OetP?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=56e31adf3c8d4c4f80bfcb24bf1306a2&ei=43

I just don’t understand what the ideological differences are between the Black Hundreds rebels and the same Black Hundred government with its Black Hundred oprichnina represented by the Girkinites, Barkashovites, Limonovites, the Federal Protective Service "Wagner", the FSB-GRU-SVR and myriads of Black Hundreds propagandists in the person of that Dugin, or Prokhanov, or Kvachkov with Kalashnikov, and so on. The combination of ultra-left populism with ultra-right hatred on social and national grounds is the same idea that unites them.

Very suspicious rebels. I hope they do not turn out to be the same scarecrow that the Russian special services built in the early 2000s to discredit the Chechen rebels.

[Storr]

Everything is fine:

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1646618597492391936?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1646746101070934016?s=20

[CumbrianLefty]

Woody was declaring Bakhmut "effectively" taken by Russia several weeks ago.

I mean, if 80% of the city, bar some ruined suburbs, is in Russian hands, it effectively is.

Though it must be said pretty much the entire town is "ruined", not just the parts that Ukraine still controls. Pictures from there confirm it has been fairly comprehensively Mariupol'ed.

[jaichind]

Non zero chance we get to see Leopard 1 and T-55 duke it out in a few months. The irony is that this is 2023 not 1973...

Tanks usually do not fight against other tanks.  Tanks usually are up against infantry or anti-tank units.  This is why it is not that meaningful to compare tanks.  Besides the level of tank crew training as well as control of the air is just as if not more decisive than the tank itself in terms of battle outcome.  All in all, having a tank is better than no tank, however old.

[Torie]

Russia moment:

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1646326136085815297?s=20

It's very fortunate, but I don't think that would have been WW3 even if the missile launched properly and successfully downed the aircraft. There were similar incidents during the Cold War, some of which included deliberate shootdowns and multiple casualties.

The Soviets literally downed a South Korean civilian airliner with 269 people on board.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007

And Reagan went on TV to characterize the Soviet Union as an evil empire as a result. I remember watching that as if it were yesterday.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/oivshina/status/1646901036009807873?s=20

https://twitter.com/oivshina/status/1646902696207605761?s=20

https://twitter.com/oivshina/status/1646905459679408132?s=20

https://twitter.com/oivshina/status/1646906947273207809?s=20

[Storr]

On the topic of casualties:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1646902536362704896?s=20

[It’s so Joever]

Carlson genuinely should be arrested for sedition.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1646746101070934016?s=20

It is true that a picture speaks a thousand words.

[Hindsight was 2020]

On the topic of casualties:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1646902536362704896?s=20

I know Tucker has stupid fans but how exactly does he explain that Ukraine is suffering 7 dead to 1 Russian but they managed to pushed Russia out of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson and Russia after a year of fighting is stuck in the Donbas?

[Stranger in a strange land]

On the topic of casualties:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1646902536362704896?s=20

I know Tucker has stupid fans but how exactly does he explain that Ukraine is suffering 7 dead to 1 Russian but they managed to pushed Russia out of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson and Russia after a year of fighting is stuck in the Donbas?

He can't: none of this is possible or remotely believable unless your sources are Russian State Media or English-speaking pro-Russian social media accounts.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

You can be outraged at Carlson, but he has every right to push the envelope against the US military while the very same military continues to fund the overseas broadcasting of his show. There's plenty of MSM shows they don't do this for, but their fear of backlash is such that they won't pull his. If they're not going to take his criticisms seriously, why should he?

[American2020]

Since the beginning of the war of Ukraine, there's been a very sharp campaign to attack NATO and defend Putin's action.

Right-wing: Tucker Carlson and so many Trumpers and MAGA's
Left-wing: many tankies

https://twitter.com/wallacemick/status/1646798229063753728

https://twitter.com/ILoveFunnyCats_/status/1646823699914399744

[Cassius]

Nobody knows what the real casualties are in Ukraine. High, on both sides, is a good guess. Anything else, especially when expressed in terms of ratios, is pure speculation. An accurate casualty ratio is something that we’ll probably have to wait until the third generation of historians are publishing their books on this conflict in the 2080s.

[HillGoose]

if these COMMIES like tucker carlson and ppl on twitter who havent touched grass in years probably LOVE KGB PUTIN and HATE AMERICA so much they should MOVE TO RUSSIA and see how they like it there !

we do not need ppl spreading russki and red chinese disinfo in the FREE WORLD ! they can go live in the axis of evil where they clearly want to be !

[lfromnj]

Nobody knows what the real casualties are in Ukraine. High, on both sides, is a good guess. Anything else, especially when expressed in terms of ratios, is pure speculation. An accurate casualty ratio is something that we’ll probably have to wait until the third generation of historians are publishing their books on this conflict in the 2080s.

Finally a real reason to live.

[NOVA Green]

So was planning on posting this AM, but according to the "Discord Leaks" looks like elite Russian Military spetsnaz units have been pretty much destroyed since Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine 2.0.

The war in Ukraine has gutted Russia’s clandestine spetsnaz forces, and it will take Moscow years to rebuild them, according to classified U.S. assessments obtained by The Washington Post.

The finding, which has not been previously reported, is among a cache of sensitive materials leaked online through the messaging platform Discord. U.S. officials attributed their assessments to Russian commanders’ overreliance on the specialized units, which have been put to use as part of front-line infantry formations. Those formations, like the Ukrainians, have suffered massive numbers of dead and wounded.

Typically, spetsnaz personnel are assigned the sorts of stealthy, high-risk missions — including an apparent order to capture Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky — for which they receive some of the Russian military’s most advanced training. But when Moscow launched its full-scale invasion last year, senior commanders eager to seize momentum and skeptical of their conventional fighters’ prowess deviated from the norm, ordering elite forces into direct combat, according to U.S. intelligence findings and independent analysts who have closely followed spetsnaz deployments.

The hollowing of these units appears to be evident in satellite imagery featured among the leaked materials. Before-and-after photos — showing a base used by the 22nd Separate Spetsnaz Brigade in southern Russia, according to the document — reveal that “all but one of five Russian Separate Spetsnaz Brigades that returned from combat operations in Ukraine in late summer 2022 suffered significant losses.”

The slide includes two overhead images, one taken in November 2021, months before the invasion began, and another captured a year later. The former shows a bustling motor pool teeming with vehicles; the latter reveals what U.S. officials concluded is a state of extreme depletion months after the brigade’s return home with fewer than half of the Tigr tactical vehicles it had before the deployment. The 22nd and two other spetsnaz brigades suffered an estimated 90 to 95 percent attrition rate, the assessments say.

The documents do not say how many spetsnaz troops are estimated to have been killed or wounded in Ukraine, but the materials, citing intelligence intercepts, assess that one unit alone — the 346th — “lost nearly the entire brigade with only 125 personnel active out of 900 deployed.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/14/leaked-documents-russian-spetsnaz/

[Red Velvet]

if these COMMIES like tucker carlson and ppl on twitter who havent touched grass in years probably LOVE KGB PUTIN and HATE AMERICA so much they should MOVE TO RUSSIA and see how they like it there !

we do not need ppl spreading russki and red chinese disinfo in the FREE WORLD ! they can go live in the axis of evil where they clearly want to be !

Freedom and democracy are a property of people, it belongs to them, it’s not something owned by any State.

No one around the world outside your borders and even increasingly less people in the inside, buy the police-State narrative that USA has to or should control whatever goes on with the political systems from other countries. You can promote democracy but not enforce it, simply because it will not work or sustain itself if it isn’t collectively conquered by the people themselves.

That’s why you’re collapsing right now. You tried doing too much everywhere while ignoring the needs and well-being of your own people, who are not even given basic healthcare like people in every other place, while giving out Hundreds of Billions to one single foreign place just to get involved in a new war after leaving the Middle East.

Trump was someone with a more offensive language and his isolationism might’ve been exaggerated, but he respected people and countries much more precisely because he didn’t act like he or his country were better or “more moral” than anyone like you hear from democratic leaders propaganda. He was honest about realist realpolitik and wanting to look out for his nation interests first instead of pushing this “spread freedom around” bullsh**t that no one really believes is true these days when we just look at US own recent track record lol

If the US under the democrats is much moral and superior than anyone outside your US/Europe comfort bubble, then you shouldn’t want to make deals and expect the alliance from these immoral non-white majority places you obviously find disgusting and willing to join “axis of evil”. In that case, if we all unite to economically isolate the US and drop the dollar, then it should be welcoming development from you that more “evil” places are getting distant from you so that you can reinforce your alignment with “good” European ones that never did anything wrong in the world.

I still defend cooperating with US under important social issues like pushing for environment protection; LGBT rights; promotion of democracy (which is not enforcement btw); but it’s evident that economically, it’s impossible to push for an alignment with someone delusional who thinks (more like, actively pretends) they’re better than everyone and more moral on literally everything. It just proves the point that just like the Dollar is being politically used to “punish” Russia, the same lack of respect can be easily applied into literally anyone else.

[Damocles]

Yeah well, if Ivan isn’t firmly b#%ch-slapped, shown his place, and put back in line now, he’ll go off rampaging throughout half of Europe and try to reassert imperial domination over tens of millions of Slavs, Caucasians, Central Asians, etc. that he had historically dominated.

The state propaganda regularly shown on RuZZian television channels is incredibly chauvinistic in nature, depicting RuZZians as some sort of eternally innocent and pure people, while in the same breath talking about how the Chechens *totally* had it coming in 1999, etc.

Did some posters in this thread learn nothing from the last time when authoritarian leaders proudly proclaimed the superiority of their country’s primary ethnic or racial group, and then claimed that additional living space for their people must be made at the expense of others?

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Freedom and democracy are a property of people, it belongs to them, it’s not something owned by any State.

No one around the world outside your borders and even increasingly less people in the inside, buy the police-State narrative that USA has to or should control whatever goes on with the political systems from other countries. You can promote democracy but not enforce it, simply because it will not work or sustain itself if it isn’t collectively conquered by the people themselves.

That’s why you’re collapsing right now. You tried doing too much everywhere while ignoring the needs and well-being of your own people, who are not even given basic healthcare like people in every other place, while giving out Hundreds of Billions to one single foreign place just to get involved in a new war after leaving the Middle East.

Trump was someone with a more offensive language and his isolationism might’ve been exaggerated, but he respected people and countries much more precisely because he didn’t act like he or his country were better or “more moral” than anyone like you hear from democratic leaders propaganda. He was honest about realist realpolitik and wanting to look out for his nation interests first instead of pushing this “spread freedom around” bullsh**t that no one really believes is true these days when we just look at US own recent track record lol

If the US under the democrats is much moral and superior than anyone outside your US/Europe comfort bubble, then you shouldn’t want to make deals and expect the alliance from these immoral non-white majority places you obviously find disgusting and willing to join “axis of evil”. In that case, if we all unite to economically isolate the US and drop the dollar, then it should be welcoming development from you that more “evil” places are getting distant from you so that you can reinforce your alignment with “good” European ones that never did anything wrong in the world.

I still defend cooperating with US under important social issues like pushing for environment protection; LGBT rights; promotion of democracy (which is not enforcement btw); but it’s evident that economically, it’s impossible to push for an alignment with someone delusional who thinks (more like, actively pretends) they’re better than everyone and more moral on literally everything. It just proves the point that just like the Dollar is being politically used to “punish” Russia, the same lack of respect can be easily applied into literally anyone else.

An excellent example of turning everything inside out propaganda. It deserves to be in the school books.

Per se you're saying something like, "You damned adequate people, get off with your promotion of adequacy! There are a lot of millions of people like Charles Manson, and we'll isolate you, we'll lock you up in a mental hospital, you damned adequate people, when we unite!"

Your speech could have been taken seriously before the Russian attack on Georgia, and certainly not to be taken seriously when the Russians carry out ISIS-style public executions and Putin's best friend talks about the corpses of foreign journalists in his garden.

[Red Velvet]

Per se you're saying something like, "You damned adequate people, get off with your promotion of adequacy! There are a lot of millions of people like Charles Manson, and we'll isolate you, we'll lock you up in a mental hospital, you damned adequate people, when we unite!"

Incorrect. I am saying that the moral standards applied by Western states are hypocritical and one-sided in order to benefit white-majority nations. And that’s why nations that don’t fit into that group should reject this moral narrative when it can and will be spun against them since they will never be in the club that claims to “own” democracy.

This commotion movement never gets track when it happens to them, so they should organize and question the entire system that is structured to facilitate their oppression through a narrative that always positions them as the “other” regardless of their actions.

No one wants to talk about ending the war, everyone’s solution is to propose more war and sending weapons instead because the goal is not really protecting lives or achieving peace, but guaranteeing a full Russian defeat (where even Crimea is returned) that they know very well that is not realistic. It’s like setting more fuel to the fire and being okay-ish with it because you’re not directly involved.

Thankfully there are emerging leaderships calling this out without accepting the hypocrisy of the western narrative that wants to validate/justify their economic (imperial) control of the world through moral argument that everyone knows is fake and opportunistic as they don’t apply those rules to themselves.

https://twitter.com/OliverStuenkel/status/1647209955185795072?cxt=HHwWgICxlcOuiN...

[jaichind]

I still find it funny how it took days to find the person behind the Pentagon paper leaks but months later there is still no official culprit for Nord Steam 2 sabotage.