Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

I've read most of Red Velvet's text blocks (you should seriously consider combining them into a book at this point) but I'm still unclear on:

1) Why Russia is part of the "Global South" when it was never colonized and was (and still is!!!) a colonizing country? Indeed, under the definition I think you're using, Ukraine has a better claim on being a Global South Country than Russia does, though IMHO neither is.

2) How it's striking against the corrupt, white supremacist world order in favor of the non-white majority world when Russia is majority-white and ethnic Russians are white people by any possible standard unless we're using weird 19th century racial science, which I don't think you are.

The logic seems to be built on Ukraine receiving almost all its support from the West (with some notable help from a few S America nations that give humanitarian idea, Japan and Pakistan) so they get some type of sins of the father/guilt by association stigma attached. To make it more simple it’s “condone Russian imperialism to own the West”

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1648374580677951522?s=20

[tweet snip]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1648646439197655040?s=20

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1648744338346606621

Seems that in addition to the Patriot batteries, Germany might have also delivered the 2nd IRIS-T air defense battery, but not sure if there was official confirmation of that yet.

[Storr]

Ukrainians defining their trench along/near the "Road of Life" to Bakhmut from a Russian infantry assault:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1648699459298115585?s=20

[oldtimer]

The Global North vs Global South divide evidenced by Ukraine and Western Double Standards after decades of not living up to the moral speech they defend they “represent” is the big story of this century. Multipolar World: We have one side pushing for it and the other trying to repress it in order to protect their unbalanced share of power. Ukraine just happened to be the catalyst for all this because it’s where it became evident that the compassion given to a white european country in danger is extremely different than what has always been given to non-white countries.

But, isn't Russia itself a white European country, which is using its non-white subjects, and its poor subjects, to wage war against another white European country? What makes one of them "global south" and the other "global north"?!

The reason why we're discussing this here is that Putin sees the mere existence of Ukraine as a threat to his own rule in the Kremlin, and so he takes the sons of ethnic minorities, and poor Russians, to die for himself.

The British Empire, for all its faults, had a social expectation for the sons of the upper class to enlist in the military. That at least provided some restraint against purely "useless" wars, even when the empire itself was motivated by enriching the upper class.

Meanwhile, the sons of the Russian elite are still posting on Instagram about their exploits in London, Switzerland, and Miami. Their words are just that - words.

The same is true about the sons of the elites of Iran, China, Cuba, Venezuela, etc: they're all living the high life in countries that are denounced in their own official propaganda.

And since the “rules-based world order” doesn’t exist, or exists to be more in favor of people who look a certain way over others, we’re seeing people behave accordingly because it means we need to construct a completely new and more balanced world order. And the 1st path to this is necessarily weakening the dollar. The future is in the South and South-South collaboration..

It's always a good idea to look for other means of transactions. In reality, the rise of blockchains means it might be possible that, in the near future, there will be no reason why an Indian importer must make payments to an Argentinian exporter in a currency that neither of them truly need, and that it would be technically impossible for any third party to unilaterally obstruct them.

Having said that...

A means of storage of wealth is still necessary. It was gold and silver in the past, before fiat currency became the predominant means in the last century. The US Dollar emerged as global hegemon, in very large part because its capital markets are the most liquid. Is it unfair? Yes, because there are many countries with more stable political and institutional systems and which also have better opportunities for investment, which are neglected as a result of this hegemony.

But China is simply not an alternative, at all. The Renminbi is not freely convertible, which means it doesn't even meet the definition of a storage of wealth. Why isn't it convertible?

Look at these:

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1645878241217900546
https://twitter.com/abcampbell/status/1645719205763772416
According to official statistics, China's M2 money supply is equivalent to the money supply of the US, the Eurozone, and the UK combined, despite still having a much smaller economy than the US, and is still generating new money supply at a record pace while the money supply of the western economies is contracting. What does this mean?

It means that the Renminbi is massively overvalued, and that its true value without capital controls would be about 15-20 to the US Dollar instead of the 6.5-7.0 that it is now. Its current per capita GDP is roughly equivalent to that of Argentina or Costa Rica. At the hypothetical "true" exchange rate, it would be around the level of Guatemala or El Salvador. No one thinks these countries are up-and-coming superpowers.

In other words, for China to offer a credible reserve currency, it would have to make the Renminbi to become fully convertible, but doing so would cause it to collapse and trigger widespread domestic social unrest. That's why in recent years, even routine cross-border transactions have become a bureaucratic pain in the ass: it's hardly a sign of confidence in the future.

Is the current US Dollar hegemony unfair, because it sucks up investment that could otherwise go to other countries? Yes. But, I don't see a good future for China under the current situation, and the actions of its leadership indicate they don't, either.

It simply means what we all can see.

China is by far no1 in Industry, Trade, and Construction in the world, so it's logical for them
 to also have the largest money supply because of all the transactions.

By all appearances the Chinese economy probably overtook America around the late 2000's, even if no one wants to admit it.

You only have to look at the number and condition of their cities compared to America's.

[Storr]

Why Ukraine needs NATO membership:

As long as the current Russian government is in power, they will continue trying take over Ukraine. Pledges or even alliances won't dissuade Putin from trying a blitzkrieg regime change invasion again, once he rebuilds his military. But NATO Article 5 certainly would.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1648811204226195456?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1648763168984817698?s=20

[2952-0-0]

It simply means what we all can see.

China is by far no1 in Industry, Trade, and Construction in the world, so it's logical for them
 to also have the largest money supply because of all the transactions.

By all appearances the Chinese economy probably overtook America around the late 2000's, even if no one wants to admit it.

You only have to look at the number and condition of their cities compared to America's.

China's official numbers are bogus, and even the top leadership admit as such.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-wikileaks-idUSTRE6B527D20101206

A study of satellite imagery of night lights also provides hints at the scale of fudging of official economic numbers in all dictatorships. The more repressive a dictatorship, the greater the fudging of numbers. You'll see there are no countries where official economic numbers are fudged to be less than reality.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/09/29/a-study-of-lights-at-night-suggests-dictators-lie-about-economic-growth

As for construction, well, even the top leadership admit that overbuilding has become a systemic crisis. There are now enough empty homes to house the entire population of Germany, Italy, France, and the UK combined, all in a country where the population is declining. And that has been at the heart of what appears to be the boom: money is printed to fund construction projects which could never be occupied.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-property-bust-compounds-economic-pain-11674123815

Here are some real numbers, about the real incomes of real people:

https://twitter.com/alvinfoo/status/1411723958072659970?t=gXIidAfVBFFigBgyOqPl3g&s=09

China's median income is, being very generous, below $4000 per year. Less than 10% of the population have an income above $9200 per year, which even in the Chinese social consciousness, is considered the bare minimum for a new graduate. This means that China is, in reality, a desperately poor country for all but the top 5%. These fancy skyscrapers are of no relevance to the other 95%.

So, given all these facts (massive fudging of economic numbers, that much of the boom was a fictitious bubble, the eye-watering income inequality), the additional fact that China has been printing money at the fastest pace in human history doesn't bode well for its future. Appearances are deceiving.

Anyway, enough about this tangent.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

You are both right, but you look at it from different points of view. From the perspective of the Chinese government, per capita GDP and the well-being of citizens are completely irrelevant. This is the government that once starved to death up to 45 million of its citizens as a result of the idiotic sparrow extermination, that is, twice as many as the Japanese killed the Chinese in World War II, even considering the Nanjing Massacre, but still the Chinese government does not allow the thought  about its fault. What matters to the Chinese government is overall GDP, how many tanks and missiles they can produce, and China's GDP has always been colossal. Even in the Middle Ages, China's GDP was a quarter of the world's GDP.

[NOVA Green]

Discord leaks now reveal significant weaknesses in Canada's ability to meet its military commitment to NATO while simultaneously providing military support to Ukraine.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has told NATO officials privately that Canada will never meet the military alliance’s defense-spending target, according to a leaked secret Pentagon assessment obtained by The Washington Post. The document’s anonymous authors say Canada’s “widespread” military deficiencies are harming ties with security partners and allies.

The document, which has not been previously reported on, says “enduring” defense shortfalls led the Canadian Armed Forces to assess in February that it “could not conduct a major operation while simultaneously maintaining its NATO battle group leadership [in Latvia] and aid to Ukraine” — and that the situation was not “likely” to change without a shift in public opinion.

Since February 2022, Canada has provided Ukraine more than $1 billion of military aid, including armored vehicles, ammunition, a surface-to-air missile system that it sourced from the United States, and eight German-made Leopard II tanks that it transferred to Poland for delivery to Ukraine. The Canadian Armed Forces has trained more than 36,000 Ukrainian military and security personnel since 2015 and leads a NATO battle group in Latvia.

The document lists problems with what it categorizes as readiness, personnel, “political apathy” and procurement.

It says nearly all of Canada’s 78 Leopard II tanks “require extensive maintenance and lack spare parts.” In one unit, only nine of 40 are fully or partly operational. The assessment says the military lacks half the pilots it requires, and calls procurement decisions “politically motivated, constrained by limited staffing and not properly codified in budget items.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/19/canada-military-trudeau-leaked-documents/

[oldtimer]

It simply means what we all can see.

China is by far no1 in Industry, Trade, and Construction in the world, so it's logical for them
 to also have the largest money supply because of all the transactions.

By all appearances the Chinese economy probably overtook America around the late 2000's, even if no one wants to admit it.

You only have to look at the number and condition of their cities compared to America's.

China's official numbers are bogus, and even the top leadership admit as such.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-wikileaks-idUSTRE6B527D20101206

A study of satellite imagery of night lights also provides hints at the scale of fudging of official economic numbers in all dictatorships. The more repressive a dictatorship, the greater the fudging of numbers. You'll see there are no countries where official economic numbers are fudged to be less than reality.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/09/29/a-study-of-lights-at-night-suggests-dictators-lie-about-economic-growth

As for construction, well, even the top leadership admit that overbuilding has become a systemic crisis. There are now enough empty homes to house the entire population of Germany, Italy, France, and the UK combined, all in a country where the population is declining. And that has been at the heart of what appears to be the boom: money is printed to fund construction projects which could never be occupied.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-property-bust-compounds-economic-pain-11674123815

Here are some real numbers, about the real incomes of real people:

https://twitter.com/alvinfoo/status/1411723958072659970?t=gXIidAfVBFFigBgyOqPl3g&s=09

China's median income is, being very generous, below $4000 per year. Less than 10% of the population have an income above $9200 per year, which even in the Chinese social consciousness, is considered the bare minimum for a new graduate. This means that China is, in reality, a desperately poor country for all but the top 5%. These fancy skyscrapers are of no relevance to the other 95%.

So, given all these facts (massive fudging of economic numbers, that much of the boom was a fictitious bubble, the eye-watering income inequality), the additional fact that China has been printing money at the fastest pace in human history doesn't bode well for its future. Appearances are deceiving.

Anyway, enough about this tangent.

The chinese can't be falsifing the trade figures of the West, and it's western statistics that I rely upon.

[CanadianDemocrat]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1648763168984817698?s=20

The Russians can't be staying in Tokmak or Melitopol very long. Tokmak is a strategic rail hub between the Donbas and Crimea. Ukraine taking Tokmak would also help cut the land bridge to Crimea.

[2952-0-0]

You are both right, but you look at it from different points of view. From the perspective of the Chinese government, per capita GDP and the well-being of citizens are completely irrelevant. This is the government that once starved to death up to 45 million of its citizens as a result of the idiotic sparrow extermination, that is, twice as many as the Japanese killed the Chinese in World War II, even considering the Nanjing Massacre, but still the Chinese government does not allow the thought  about its fault.

This is not entirely true. What they fear the most is mass unemployment, and they will pull out all stops to prevent that. It's the most important pillar of weiwen, above even using violence to crush dissent. And that explains why Beijing has been printing money at the fastest rate in history to build homes that will never be occupied: to keep able-bodied men too busy to cause trouble.

Another facet is that the Party elite had made a deal with themselves: you stay loyal to us, and we'll give you the first opportunities to enrich yourselves. Therefore, there still needs to be some real increase in living standards, to provide the Party elite the incentive to remain loyal. For instance, the "second generation reds" were given control of the state-owned monopolies in the 1990s, just as they were preparing to be listed on the stock market. That created an incentive to actually raise the standard of living for the masses and build infrastructure: Jiang Zemin's son was given control of the telecom sector while he was General Secretary, and then oversaw the rapid rollout of the mobile phone network, before he got his payoff: the IPOs in Hong Kong and New York. A similar story can be told about Premier Li Peng: he was the one who pushed for sending in the tanks, and his family was rewarded with control over the electricity sector. All these create an incentive for the Party elite to grift, while actually building infrastructure in a way that benefited the masses.

Of course, the Party is ready to use violence to crush dissent. But, its leaders also understand they can't solely rely on violence to that end. Chinese history is replete with Emperors who increasingly have to turn to their army generals to crush rebellions, only for the army general to decide he wants to run things.

Standard of living also matters for another reason: Beijing could use access to 1.4 billion consumers for political leverage to foreign governments and multinationals. If the vast majority of the 1.4 billion simply can't afford these imported products, then political threats against these foreigners would lack credibility. Look at all these western multinationals which were targeted with boycott campaigns due to some slight over Taiwan or some other nonsense: most of them simply shrugged it off after a few months.

All this means that, because China's economy and society are much more complex than countries that depend on commodity revenues, then the CCP's social contract is much more complex than that of, say, the Arab princes, or of Putin. To some extent, it gives the average Chinese more freedom in his life than his Arab or Russian counterpart, but that's not because the CCP are nicer.

What matters to the Chinese government is overall GDP, how many tanks and missiles they can produce, and China's GDP has always been colossal. Even in the Middle Ages, China's GDP was a quarter of the world's GDP.

That doesn't quite capture the whole nuance, as well. Of course, they want a larger pie. But, who controls the pie is more important than its size. This is true under any political system, but even more so where political power is concentrated in a small minority. Winnie has been very open about this: that explains his crackdown on the tech bros. Yes, China's tech bros were jerks, but their real offense was hogging the attention of China's youth and entrepreneur class.

In addition, much of China's GDP has been tied up in unproductive investments, like all these apartments which will never be occupied. Overbuilding in the construction sector also meant overbuilding in the heavy industrial sector: steel, coal, cement, metal refinery, etc. This meant that the money printing press kept not just the real estate market on a sugar high, it also contributed to a supply glut in the heavy industrial sector, which Beijing has actively tried to reduce. Yes, this is the only government in history to actively and deliberately reduce its heavy industries. All this is complete idiocy from an economics standpoint, but it accomplishes the overarching political goal: keep potential troublemakers busy.

As for your point about the military: of course, they want a large military. But, they also know that too large a military is a threat to their power. Mao said that "the Party must always command the gun, and the gun must never command the Party". We all know that a bloated military-industrial complex can subvert democracies, and it could also undermine the leadership of a one-party state. There was also my previous point about how Chinese emperors were often threatened by their own generals. So, there are limits on how large that can go.

Anyway, my point remains: China's money supply is vastly larger than its real economy should justify, by a ratio of at least 2.6 (by official numbers, its GDP is 72% of the US, and has double the US money supply), and likely higher still (since if its real GDP is much smaller than its official numbers, then the ratio would be higher still). And it's still printing money at a pace faster than even the Fed at the height of the pandemic!

The chinese can't be falsifing the trade figures of the West, and it's western statistics that I rely upon.

You went on about how Chinese cities are full of modern buildings, and therefore China has the appearance of being already the wealthiest country in the world since the late 2000s, and that everyone is pretending otherwise, without citing any proof.

I then cite proof that China's official numbers - which still state that its GDP is lower than the US by a lot - are severely fudged, including a Wikileaks cable where a senior official even joked about it. I then cite proof that these modern buildings are just appearances - not a Potemkin village, but a sign of deep trouble in the Chinese financial sector. Then I cited real numbers issued by a Chinese state-affiliated think tank that 95% of Chinese have incomes that, by first-world standards, make them impoverished.

Here it is again:

https://twitter.com/ZichenWanghere/status/1269256786969874432

[Storr]

I'm not sure if this is the Russian propaganda version of a boomer moment or the finest example of:



https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1648896308445315074?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1648949370824577024?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

As for your point about the military: of course, they want a large military. But, they also know that too large a military is a threat to their power. Mao said that "the Party must always command the gun, and the gun must never command the Party". We all know that a bloated military-industrial complex can subvert democracies, and it could also undermine the leadership of a one-party state. There was also my previous point about how Chinese emperors were often threatened by their own generals. So, there are limits on how large that can go.

The difference between the China of the noble empires and the China of the National Communists is about the same as between Alderaan and the Death Star.

To reduce the discontent of the intellectuals, the Chinese emperors entrusted the intellectuals with grandiose scientific activities. The National Communists simply gave the intellectuals to the mobsters for lynching.

Medieval Chinese officials were subjected to eternal disgrace for the execution of the objectionable general Yue Fei. Mao dumped the marshal, who was an equal hero, and started a civil war against his own army just for fun, and he is still idolized.

I then cite proof that China's official numbers - which still state that its GDP is lower than the US by a lot - are severely fudged, including a Wikileaks cable where a senior official even joked about it. I then cite proof that these modern buildings are just appearances - not a Potemkin village, but a sign of deep trouble in the Chinese financial sector. Then I cited real numbers issued by a Chinese state-affiliated think tank that 95% of Chinese have incomes that, by first-world standards, make them impoverished.

One way or another, after Mao destroyed China, China will sooner or later return to its natural state, regardless of the current postscripts and poverty of citizens. Already, China is on a par with the United States in terms of GDP, and having finally healed the wounds inflicted by Mao, China will naturally become the country with the largest budget in the world. And I want to say that the military threat of China and its satellites must be taken as seriously as possible. No bravado and no closing of the eyes.

Do you remember what Mao said about nuclear war?

[Lord Halifax]

One way or another, after Mao destroyed China, China will sooner or later return to its natural state, regardless of the current postscripts and poverty of citizens. Already, China is on a par with the United States in terms of GDP, and having finally healed the wounds inflicted by Mao, China will naturally become the country with the largest budget in the world.

there is nothing natural about it, India already has a bigger population and the difference will increase since China is facing a gradual demographic collapse. Eventually the Indian economy will surpass the Chinese.

the US could also prevent China from ever overtaking it simply by increasing immigration levels.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/04/17/could-the-u-s-be-the-worlds-most-populous-country-in-2100/

[jaichind]

https://www.welt.de/geschichte/zweiter-weltkrieg/plus244884038/Ukraine-Krieg-Was-der-Vergleich-mit-Kursk-1943-lehrt.html

Germany's Welt seems to compare the upcoming Ukraine offensive to the Kursh offensive in 1943

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1648959189543157760

[CumbrianLefty]

Lots of rumours that the long touted big Ukrainian offensive has either started or will very soon.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Lots of rumours that the long touted big Ukrainian offensive has either started or will very soon.

They mostly seem to just be rumors as the areas Ukraine have attacked recently that sparked this rumbling have a probing attack quality to them

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Lots of rumours that the long touted big Ukrainian offensive has either started or will very soon.

Heard this for months prior to the late August offensive in Kherson (historically, the biggest example is D-Day, anticipated for years before it happened). This sort of hype is used as a tool to obscure an offensive's real zero hour and any false starts.

[2952-0-0]

The difference between the China of the noble empires and the China of the National Communists is about the same as between Alderaan and the Death Star.

To reduce the discontent of the intellectuals, the Chinese emperors entrusted the intellectuals with grandiose scientific activities. The National Communists simply gave the intellectuals to the mobsters for lynching.

Medieval Chinese officials were subjected to eternal disgrace for the execution of the objectionable general Yue Fei. Mao dumped the marshal, who was an equal hero, and started a civil war against his own army just for fun, and he is still idolized.

But doesn't that prove my point, about how Chinese rulers have all felt threatened by their own generals, and need to cut them down to maintain their own power?

One way or another, after Mao destroyed China, China will sooner or later return to its natural state, regardless of the current postscripts and poverty of citizens. Already, China is on a par with the United States in terms of GDP, and having finally healed the wounds inflicted by Mao, China will naturally become the country with the largest budget in the world. And I want to say that the military threat of China and its satellites must be taken as seriously as possible. No bravado and no closing of the eyes.

Do you remember what Mao said about nuclear war?

If the CCP really healed the wounds inflicted by Mao, it would not have elected Xi as its leader, and would not have allowed him to consolidate power, let alone allow a personality cult.

In addition, the Qing Dynasty had as much as a third of the world's GDP - even more than the US today - when it was being picked apart by the European imperial powers. It failed, because its leadership were disinterested in enacting the political reforms needed to compete with the Europeans, because - as in Japan - these reforms meant upsetting the power structure at home. Hence, even after its defeat at the hands of the Europeans, the Qing Dynasty spent vast sums modernizing its army and navy, and hired the best instructors from Prussia and Britain. But, because there were no accompanying political reforms, this vast and modern military fell apart at the hands of the much smaller Japanese in 1895. It was plagued by corruption, supply line challenges, lack of interest at home, and factional rivalries - everything that went wrong with Russia in Ukraine.

And that defeat plunged the Qing Dynasty - still the world's second largest economy even during its final decade - into an existential crisis that it didn't recover from. The Dynasty was put out of its misery in 1912 by General Yuan Shikai, who commanded the "New Army", proving that even its half-hearted attempts of modernization led to its feared loss of political power. General Yuan then went on to strangle China's nascent constitutional democratic republic in its crib, before himself dying as the "Emperor" of a shattered ruin.

The Republic that followed it, and the CCP that rules today, are both haunted by that legacy. It's also very telling that comparisons between the CCP and the Qing Dynasty are quickly censored. The lesson here is that raw GDP, or even the size of the military, is not a substitute for political structures. It's even more true, when the current leadership in Beijing openly states they don't even consider the economy as their top priority. It's internal security that matters more than anything else. GDP, standard of living, military strength are all subordinate to that.

Does this mean there won't be a war? No. Putin started his war in Ukraine because he didn't want to fall from a window, after all. But that has to be put into perspective.

As for your comment about Mao and nuclear war, well, all the CCP elite have their children in enemy western countries. It's as relevant as Vladimir Solovyov's outbursts about nuking London, where his son works as a model.

[Storr]

Lots of rumours that the long touted big Ukrainian offensive has either started or will very soon.

They mostly seem to just be rumors as the areas Ukraine have attacked recently that sparked this rumbling have a probing attack quality to them

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1648959140163715072?s=20

[Woody]

Imagine if this escalates to Russia supplying Hamas.

https://twitter.com/301military/status/1649105384169144344