COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BA.2 will be the next wave in April-May-June.

No one cares.

Democrats will be hurt electorally if they use BA.2 as justification to reimpose restrictions or mandates.

I'm already seeing some covid fear porn ratcheting back up with "spring break fears" and stuff like this. And inevitably, some pollsters will show Americans want restrictions back.

But Democrats' behavior will tell the real story. It's clear they know the real numbers, because this rush to lift restrictions didn't come with any public polls showing their policies were unpopular, but they did it anyway in a very coordinated way.

I've seen it as well. The media certainly doesn't want to let this go.

The division-generating press is the real opponent of the American people's welfare re:Covid at this point. We can only overcome this by working together across party lines and telling them "no cigar".

[emailking]

I don't think they should "let it go" as there is a non-trivial chance the virus could mutate and surge again. Obviously some balance will be needed. But the news is almost 100% Ukraine for 3 weeks now, so I'm not sure what you guys are seeing.

[Pres Mike]

Anyone cares that both the capitol building and white house are opening up again?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

For the first time since July 15, America's 7-day average of new cases is below 30,000 - at 29,792.

[emailking]

I think that's the first calendar day without a new post in this thread. A good sign I guess!

[Hammy]

I think that's the first calendar day without a new post in this thread. A good sign I guess!

Big question though, would this be the case were it not for Ukraine.

[Torie]

Krugman writes an interesting piece about China's failed covid policy (inferior vaccine, ignoring old people, etc), exacerbated by an autocratic government. He also says that most have missed this story because they are distracted by Ukraine, but he did not because he has disciplined himself to limit his attention to Ukraine down to 13 hours a day. What a mensch he is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/17/opinion/china-russia-xi-jin-ping.html

[Torie]

And that booster shots half life appears to have been shorter than hoped, although it is unclear about the degree of waning efficacy against severe disease. In any event it appears that a second booster will become available for those 65 and older very soon, and now Moderna is pushing to make it available to all adults.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/18/world/covid-19-mandates-cases-vaccine#second-booster-covid-moderna

[DINGO Joe]

After the avg age of those dying from Covid dropped substantially last year, it did swing back to older people in Jan/Feb, not as old as pre-vaccine but older than the Delta wave deaths.  Probably were more breakthrough deaths of the vaxxed or at least the unboosted than in prior months.  Deaths still trending more towards white people but not as dramatically as the Delta wave months at the end of 2021.

[compucomp]

Krugman writes an interesting piece about China's failed covid policy (inferior vaccine, ignoring old people, etc), exacerbated by an autocratic government. He also says that most have missed this story because they are distracted by Ukraine, but he did not because he has disciplined himself to limit his attention to Ukraine down to 13 hours a day. What a mensch he is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/17/opinion/china-russia-xi-jin-ping.html

COVID Deaths in China: 4,636
COVID Deaths in USA: 968,663 (per NYT tracker)

If you say China is undercounting their deaths, fine, multiply it by 10, or even 100, it's still a far superior result to the USA, particularly since China's population is roughly 4x USA. You can call me a shill or whatever but numbers don't lie and they are still staring you in the face.

[Torie]

Krugman writes an interesting piece about China's failed covid policy (inferior vaccine, ignoring old people, etc), exacerbated by an autocratic government. He also says that most have missed this story because they are distracted by Ukraine, but he did not because he has disciplined himself to limit his attention to Ukraine down to 13 hours a day. What a mensch he is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/17/opinion/china-russia-xi-jin-ping.html

COVID Deaths in China: 4,636
COVID Deaths in USA: 968,663 (per NYT tracker)

If you say China is undercounting their deaths, fine, multiply it by 10, or even 100, it's still a far superior result to the USA, particularly since China's population is roughly 4x USA. You can call me a shill or whatever but numbers don't lie and they are still staring you in the face.

I am a mere conduit and have no personal knowledge or expertise about any of this. But Krugman's rap is that while China due to its autocracy and the obedience of its citizens (I touch on the obedience thing elsewhere and actually used your screen name to boot), has done well in containing the contagion, because it has inferior vaccines, and because containing the contagion cannot keep the genie in the bottle forever, it is all coming home to roost now, and China will start to catch up some with the morbidity level reached elsewhere.

In any event, if you think Krugman is fill of sh*t, take it up with him, not me. Thanks.

[Aurelius]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/briefing/covid-risks-poll-americans.html

Increasingly clear that a large majority of the "very liberal" are completely out of touch with reality on covid. It's essentially a domestic fifth column that opposes all that is good in life, everything that makes life worth living.

Sane policymaking would studiously ignore them. It's high time that all remaining masking, capacity, and vaccination restrictions be removed, even in "high risk" environments and especially in schools.

Those who disagree have the right to stay locked up at home. They do not have the right to continue to impose their overbearing safetyism on the rest of us. And no, I have no patience for coddling the unvaccinated either. They can reap what they sowed.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/briefing/covid-risks-poll-americans.html

Increasingly clear that a large majority of the "very liberal" are completely out of touch with reality on covid. It's essentially a domestic fifth column that opposes all that is good in life, everything that makes life worth living.

Sane policymaking would studiously ignore them. It's high time that all remaining masking, capacity, and vaccination restrictions be removed, even in "high risk" environments and especially in schools.

Those who disagree have the right to stay locked up at home. They do not have the right to continue to impose their overbearing safetyism on the rest of us. And no, I have no patience for coddling the unvaccinated either. They can reap what they sowed.

I've noticed that the media has taken to hyping up the BA.2 variant now, and in general has been paying more attention to the pandemic now, since the Ukrainian war seems to have "calmed down" into some kind of stalemate, compared to its early stages. I'm not sure if I come across as a conspiracy theorist, but I've long been of the belief that the media has no real desire for the pandemic to end, or for normalcy to return, and sees coverage of it as an easy way to boost their ratings.

[emailking]

I just don't know where you're seeing this. I only know about BA.2 because of this thread.

[Calthrina950]

I just don't know where you're seeing this. I only know about BA.2 because of this thread.

I overheard a segment on ABC News where they were talking to Dr. Fauci about the BA.2 variant and he was expressing his concerns about a resurgence in cases. Specifically, Fauci said that we "might" have to return to precautions, such as mask-wearing and the like, although he is hopeful that won't be the case and did say that we are in a better situation now than previously.

[Calthrina950]

At long last, will Joe Biden rid us of this ridiculous man and his dictates?

Biden is not going to do it, and I'm pretty sure you know why. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump or DeSantis, if they regain the Presidency for Republicans in 2024, try to move against Fauci. But he has some protection due to the limitations on the President's appointment power (i.e. "inferior officers" and "for cause" removal provisions). I have said before that Fauci should have retired long ago. He's closing in on 38 years as the Director of the Center for Infectious Diseases.

[jamestroll]

Before we all get into arguments about the BA2 variant,

I want to make it very clear that I do not care about it.

Thank you

[Aurelius]

I just don't know where you're seeing this. I only know about BA.2 because of this thread.

My parents were talking about it last night. They were pretty worried about it. I think they watched a fearmongering TV segment about it.

[emailking]

At long last, will Joe Biden rid us of this ridiculous man and his dictates?

There's nothing wrong with what Fauci said. If you don't want a mandate, then what he said should be very encouraging to you.

[emailking]

I just don't know where you're seeing this. I only know about BA.2 because of this thread.

My parents were talking about it last night. They were pretty worried about it. I think they watched a fearmongering TV segment about it.

I guess some outlets are reporting on BA.2. On MSNBC and CNN I haven't seen anything on Covid, beyond a passing mention, in weeks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Like emailking, I have yet to hear of BA.2 anywhere except this forum and fearmongerers on Twitter.

Anyway:

Vox has a great video up analyzing what caused conservatives to turn against the Covid vaccine. It notes that anti-vax sentiment previously was not very partisan and mostly just limited to fringe cranks on both sides, and that Democrats and Republicans get the flu shot annual at almost exactly the same rate. The theory the creator of the video determined is that Trump tried to downplay Covid for political purposes and state that it wasn't very serious. This was parroted by right-wing hack media outlets like Fox News that have become the only such outlets Republicans trust, and thus the mindset became "if this isn't such a big deal, why are they pushing this vaccine on us?" and thus even though Fox initially tried to promote the vaccine, the anti-vax theories from the cranks who were reading QAnon blogs and Alex Jones-type stuff managed to reach mainstream conservatism and develop critical mass, and eventually Fox heeled (at least publicly, it still has vaccine mandates for its own employees.) Another factor I think missed is the vaccine wasn't available to the general public until well after Trump was out of office and banned on Twitter, meaning he had no way to promote it as his accomplishment (which initially was the message of the Republicans and Fox), thus drowning the main right-wing voice in favor of the vaccine.

It all makes sense but I have a theory that the inverse also occurred with a certain set of liberals (profiled in this NY Times piece) who as noted per polls results in strange numbers like under 45 age Democrats being more concerned and afraid of Covid than Democrats over 65, even if those senior Democrats identify as "liberal" (as opposed to "very liberal" which is more common amongst under 45s)...the reaction to the right-wing propaganda was to actually overplay Covid and today a lot are still buying that reaction even if the new skepticism against Covid restrictions is often from fellow liberal Democrats. This also explains the rather bizarre Arthur Chu camp of the belief of "The Covid vaccine was a mistake, we should've just forced everyone in lockdown and social distancing until it went away...also you should wear a mask for the rest of your life", I actually noted this here, we now have a pretty stark split amongst even the left on this, the group that stands out in that poll is basically the online woke crowd I mentioned in that poll, even while most liberals seem to now just take the position of "take the vaccine and then return your life to normal" which is now the overwhelming position here.

The good news is I don't think these people have any real influence in the real world, as evidenced by all 50 states repealing mask mandates and also basically all cities and everywhere except a few colleges and mass transit (and I doubt even that mandate lasts until November) and virtually no restrictions on mass gatherings aside from the private businesses that still enforce vaccine mandates. And that's very unlikely to change. Even the fearmongering over BA.2 is a bit contradictory, for example if BA.2 now makes about a quarter of all Covid cases in the US (as I've seen some claim), yet Covid cases in the US continue to plummet...then it would stand to reason that BA.2 is in fact not some superbug that can evade all immunity from vaccines or previous infection and will surge cases again.

[Pericles]

I just don't know where you're seeing this. I only know about BA.2 because of this thread.

I overheard a segment on ABC News where they were talking to Dr. Fauci about the BA.2 variant and he was expressing his concerns about a resurgence in cases. Specifically, Fauci said that we "might" have to return to precautions, such as mask-wearing and the like, although he is hopeful that won't be the case and did say that we are in a better situation now than previously.

He was not saying that about BA2, he just said that the situation might change and it was a basic statement that they should be flexible. If a new variant turns up, they shouldn't have to respond to it in the same way as Omicron but decide what the best response is at the time.

[Calthrina950]

I just don't know where you're seeing this. I only know about BA.2 because of this thread.

I overheard a segment on ABC News where they were talking to Dr. Fauci about the BA.2 variant and he was expressing his concerns about a resurgence in cases. Specifically, Fauci said that we "might" have to return to precautions, such as mask-wearing and the like, although he is hopeful that won't be the case and did say that we are in a better situation now than previously.

He was not saying that about BA2, he just said that the situation might change and it was a basic statement that they should be flexible. If a new variant turns up, they shouldn't have to respond to it in the same way as Omicron but decide what the best response is at the time.

I'll remind you that the mask mandates were reimposed last year in response to the Delta variant, not to Omicron, and were maintained in many jurisdictions in this country until relatively recently. Fauci made reference to masks as a potential "mitigation" measure, and his words certainly seemed to imply that some level of restrictions could return. I think you underestimate where many Americans stand on this at this point, and the desire to move past the past two years.

[Pericles]

I just don't know where you're seeing this. I only know about BA.2 because of this thread.

I overheard a segment on ABC News where they were talking to Dr. Fauci about the BA.2 variant and he was expressing his concerns about a resurgence in cases. Specifically, Fauci said that we "might" have to return to precautions, such as mask-wearing and the like, although he is hopeful that won't be the case and did say that we are in a better situation now than previously.

He was not saying that about BA2, he just said that the situation might change and it was a basic statement that they should be flexible. If a new variant turns up, they shouldn't have to respond to it in the same way as Omicron but decide what the best response is at the time.

I'll remind you that the mask mandates were reimposed last year in response to the Delta variant, not to Omicron, and were maintained in many jurisdictions in this country until relatively recently. Fauci made reference to masks as a potential "mitigation" measure, and his words certainly seemed to imply that some level of restrictions could return. I think you underestimate where many Americans stand on this at this point, and the desire to move past the past two years.

Yeah, I'm saying they ditched them because Omicron was mild. The example of Delta does show how the virus became more dangerous and so they brought masks back then. If they have to act, they have to act and can't be held back by the decision they made about Omicron. It seems unlikely they will need to reverse and let's hope Covid just keeps becoming milder.

[It’s so Joever]

At long last, will Joe Biden rid us of this ridiculous man and his dictates?

There's nothing wrong with what Fauci said. If you don't want a mandate, then what he said should be very encouraging to you.

The only encouragement that I have heard from Fauci recently was the implication that he is near retirement.

"You can go ahead and continue to tiptoe towards normality, which is what we're doing, but at the same time, be aware that you may have to reverse." Absolutely not.

This is not about mandates. It hasn't been for a long time. The people who talk like this are a threat to our way of life. We will spend the next few years recovering from the economic and social harm that this period has wrought, and it is essential that we not allow safetyism and its acolytes to damage us further.

So…you’re upset over people telling the truth. Sounds about right.