COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[jamestroll]

Two years ago WHO declared Covid a pandemic...

I am proud I have been skeptical and fighting against Covid measures since that time!

So you're the one responsible for the million deaths in the US?

I can not be held responsible for that. And many deaths were not entirely related to covid.

It's more likely that Covid deaths were undercounted because not every death would have been tested for Covid and excess deaths were a bit higher. Anyway, the US failed because it didn't stop enough people getting infected before they could get vaccinated and protected, and then failed to get enough of their population vaccinated. The next pandemic, hopefully a century away but plausibly sooner, the government needs to step up more and people themselves also need to be more responsible.

Well.. if  a pandemic happened in 100 years, I would assume the technology will be available to do all the mitigation measures and lock people up in their homes that the online left has demanded over the past two years.

[emailking]

Former President Barack Obama tests positive for Covid-19

Former President Barack Obama announced Sunday that he has tested positive for Covid-19.

"I've had a scratchy throat for a couple days, but am feeling fine otherwise," he said on his official Twitter account. Obama also said that his wife, former first lady Michelle Obama, has tested negative.

"Michelle and I are grateful to be vaccinated and boosted," the former President said. "It's a reminder to get vaccinated if you haven't already, even as cases go down."

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/13/politics/barack-obama-covid-positive/index.html

This is not as "alarming" news as it might have been a few years ago. People have gotten numb to the stories about prominent celebrities and political figures "testing positive" with the virus. The vast majority of Americans have probably had the virus at this point or been exposed to it.

Agree about Obama. Not sure it's the vast majority though.

[Frodo]

We're not quite out of the woods -it's clear the pandemic isn't over just yet:

US public health remains far from normal with COVID-19 death rates more than 10 times the level expected in a bad flu year, experts say

The US's COVID-19 mortality rates are about 10 times higher than had been recorded during previous outbreaks of a major respiratory disease, experts said, which indicated that the country had some distance to go before it returned to a normal level of public health.

The current number of deaths still exceeds what would typically be expected in a "bad" flu season, said a report by a group of the world's top scientists, public-health doctors, and policy experts published on Monday. In that scenario, hospitals would fill, worker shortages would emerge, and more than 50,000 Americans would lose their lives in a year.

The group said that to reach "the next normal," the US should aim for an average mortality of less than 0.5 deaths per million Americans per day, or 165 deaths per day — fewer or the same as in a "bad" season of the flu and respiratory syncytial virus. RSV is a common respiratory virus that usually causes mild, coldlike symptoms.

"Unfortunately, the United States has yet to arrive at the next normal," the report said. It added that almost 1 million Americans had died from COVID-19 over the past two years.

"Going into March 2022, the country is currently experiencing about 5 deaths per million people per day from COVID-19. That is about 10-fold higher than was normal for major respiratory diseases prior to the COVID-19 pandemic," the report said.

Though the death rate is back down to where it was before the Omicron surge began.  

[Pericles]

The way to do it would be to get the vaccination rate up. However, that would have to be done by forcing people to protect themselves when they clearly don't want it, so I understand why that might not be a viable option. I feel like the booster rollout has been neglected, from the CDC data it seems like only a third of 12+ have been boosted. That's quite different from other countries, in the UK it's 2/3rds and 60% in New Zealand (in those examples, only 18+ are eligible but out of fairness I'm using 12+). The vibe I've been getting is that it hasn't been promoted that heavily.

[Calthrina950]

Former President Barack Obama tests positive for Covid-19

Former President Barack Obama announced Sunday that he has tested positive for Covid-19.

"I've had a scratchy throat for a couple days, but am feeling fine otherwise," he said on his official Twitter account. Obama also said that his wife, former first lady Michelle Obama, has tested negative.

"Michelle and I are grateful to be vaccinated and boosted," the former President said. "It's a reminder to get vaccinated if you haven't already, even as cases go down."

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/13/politics/barack-obama-covid-positive/index.html

This is not as "alarming" news as it might have been a few years ago. People have gotten numb to the stories about prominent celebrities and political figures "testing positive" with the virus. The vast majority of Americans have probably had the virus at this point or been exposed to it.

Agree about Obama. Not sure it's the vast majority though.

You have to keep in mind that the official statistics do not capture all of those who have ever contracted the virus. Many people never got tested for it or were asymptomatic, and didn't even know that they had it. In my home state of Colorado, there was a report not too long ago that over 80% of Coloradoans have immunity to the Omicron variant.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

You have to keep in mind that the official statistics do not capture all of those who have ever contracted the virus. Many people never got tested for it or were asymptomatic, and didn't even know that they had it. In my home state of Colorado, there was a report not too long ago that over 80% of Coloradoans have immunity to the Omicron variant.

It's sort of like how I had COVID in January, but it was never reported to health authorities. I just knew I had it, and stayed home for 5 days.

[LabourJersey]

The way to do it would be to get the vaccination rate up. However, that would have to be done by forcing people to protect themselves when they clearly don't want it, so I understand why that might not be a viable option. I feel like the booster rollout has been neglected, from the CDC data it seems like only a third of 12+ have been boosted. That's quite different from other countries, in the UK it's 2/3rds and 60% in New Zealand (in those examples, only 18+ are eligible but out of fairness I'm using 12+). The vibe I've been getting is that it hasn't been promoted that heavily.

One thing I'm guessing is a factor is that there is a belief among quite a few people that if you got the virus then you don't need a booster shot for some time.

I know some people who were scheduled to get a booster in December, but got COVID beforehand. There's a belief that the immunity from the virus is better than a simple booster, so some people just won't get it for some months (or never)

[Lief 🗽]

Never forget that the pro-pandemic left is furious that we are not doing this.
https://twitter.com/alecmacgillis/status/1503789699978117124?s=21

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

You have to keep in mind that the official statistics do not capture all of those who have ever contracted the virus. Many people never got tested for it or were asymptomatic, and didn't even know that they had it. In my home state of Colorado, there was a report not too long ago that over 80% of Coloradoans have immunity to the Omicron variant.

It's sort of like how I had COVID in January, but it was never reported to health authorities. I just knew I had it, and stayed home for 5 days.

I had it in March 2020, about a week before the lockdowns. Testing capacity was nil, treatment options were nil, and hospitals were a location of serious spread. I rode it out at home and luckily didn't deteriorate, but my case was definitely never counted.

[Pericles]

The way to do it would be to get the vaccination rate up. However, that would have to be done by forcing people to protect themselves when they clearly don't want it, so I understand why that might not be a viable option. I feel like the booster rollout has been neglected, from the CDC data it seems like only a third of 12+ have been boosted. That's quite different from other countries, in the UK it's 2/3rds and 60% in New Zealand (in those examples, only 18+ are eligible but out of fairness I'm using 12+). The vibe I've been getting is that it hasn't been promoted that heavily.

One thing I'm guessing is a factor is that there is a belief among quite a few people that if you got the virus then you don't need a booster shot for some time.

I know some people who were scheduled to get a booster in December, but got COVID beforehand. There's a belief that the immunity from the virus is better than a simple booster, so some people just won't get it for some months (or never)

The UK and most developed countries had lots of cases at the same time though.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/AmandaMarcotte/status/1503870082535112710

[Beet]

BA.2 will be the next wave in April-May-June.

[Person Man]

Never forget that the pro-pandemic left is furious that we are not doing this.
https://twitter.com/alecmacgillis/status/1503789699978117124?s=21

Wouldn't it be better to do nothing than this?

[Horus]

BA.2 will be the next wave in April-May-June.

No one cares.

[Calthrina950]

BA.2 will be the next wave in April-May-June.

No one cares.

Democrats will be hurt electorally if they use BA.2 as justification to reimpose restrictions or mandates.

[emailking]

Doubtful that happens unless this ends up being significantly worse than what we've already experienced.

[ElectionsGuy]

BA.2 will be the next wave in April-May-June.

No one cares.

Democrats will be hurt electorally if they use BA.2 as justification to reimpose restrictions or mandates.

I'm already seeing some covid fear porn ratcheting back up with "spring break fears" and stuff like this. And inevitably, some pollsters will show Americans want restrictions back.

But Democrats' behavior will tell the real story. It's clear they know the real numbers, because this rush to lift restrictions didn't come with any public polls showing their policies were unpopular, but they did it anyway in a very coordinated way.

[LabourJersey]

BA.2 will be the next wave in April-May-June.

I don't see that generating a wave given the fact that it's both closely related to Omicron and also not more dangerous.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

BA.2 will be the next wave in April-May-June.

No one cares.

Democrats will be hurt electorally if they use BA.2 as justification to reimpose restrictions or mandates.

I'm skeptical about BA2 in being a major wave in the US.  Even in Europe, some countries (like Sweden and Spain) are still in freefall.  Countries that had a higher peak of Omicron seem to be somewhat protected from going back up.  The US has so much natural immunity and so many people had Omicron in the last few months (I'd guess 70-80% of the US has been infected since Christmas, many of whom have no clue they were).  I could see a small ripple to the low case numbers, but I don't think we're going to shoot up again like we have a couple times.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The places being hit hardest by BA2 seem to be the ones who kept a tighter lid on Omicron through restrictions. Every successive variant seems to be just a little better at getting past defenses - but unless the damage they do starts reversing course, it won't be enough to cause total chaos. And a place that was heavily hit by Omicron like US/UK is likely to see only a minor effect due to how few reinfections there will be.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The places being hit hardest by BA2 seem to be the ones who kept a tighter lid on Omicron through restrictions. Every successive variant seems to be just a little better at getting past defenses - but unless the damage they do starts reversing course, it won't be enough to cause total chaos. And a place that was heavily hit by Omicron like US/UK is likely to see only a minor effect due to how few reinfections there will be.

It looks like the uptick in the U.K. is already tapering off a tiny, tiny bit.

[Dr. MB]

The places being hit hardest by BA2 seem to be the ones who kept a tighter lid on Omicron through restrictions. Every successive variant seems to be just a little better at getting past defenses - but unless the damage they do starts reversing course, it won't be enough to cause total chaos. And a place that was heavily hit by Omicron like US/UK is likely to see only a minor effect due to how few reinfections there will be.

It looks like the uptick in the U.K. is already tapering off a tiny, tiny bit.

Also the UK always had a bit different trend line compared to here. Look:



Their Delta peak flattened it all out and cases didn't decrease much at all until Omicron hit.

vs. USA



We did actually have a bigger dip with Delta and the Omicron fall was a lot sharper.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Tennessee releases data weekly, and our week-over-week percentage decline was 52% this week versus 41% last week.  If cases were about to soar, I would expect that number to be coming down, not going up. 

Now, if we have two more weeks of cutting the cases in half each week, we'd be talking about like 115-120 cases per day statewide, which is well below even our minimum from the "virtual elimination" period last summer.  I'm skeptical that it's going to go that low, but we're already approaching early summer 2021 numbers.

[President Johnson]

Seems like this hasn't been posted yet: Doug Emhoff tested positive. However, Biden and Kamala were tested negative.

https://twitter.com/SecondGentleman/status/1503880657797357575

[Calthrina950]

BA.2 will be the next wave in April-May-June.

No one cares.

Democrats will be hurt electorally if they use BA.2 as justification to reimpose restrictions or mandates.

I'm already seeing some covid fear porn ratcheting back up with "spring break fears" and stuff like this. And inevitably, some pollsters will show Americans want restrictions back.

But Democrats' behavior will tell the real story. It's clear they know the real numbers, because this rush to lift restrictions didn't come with any public polls showing their policies were unpopular, but they did it anyway in a very coordinated way.

I've seen it as well. The media certainly doesn't want to let this go.