COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[LabourJersey]

BA.2 will be the next wave in April-May-June.

I don't see that generating a wave given the fact that it's both closely related to Omicron and also not more dangerous.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

BA.2 will be the next wave in April-May-June.

No one cares.

Democrats will be hurt electorally if they use BA.2 as justification to reimpose restrictions or mandates.

I'm skeptical about BA2 in being a major wave in the US.  Even in Europe, some countries (like Sweden and Spain) are still in freefall.  Countries that had a higher peak of Omicron seem to be somewhat protected from going back up.  The US has so much natural immunity and so many people had Omicron in the last few months (I'd guess 70-80% of the US has been infected since Christmas, many of whom have no clue they were).  I could see a small ripple to the low case numbers, but I don't think we're going to shoot up again like we have a couple times.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The places being hit hardest by BA2 seem to be the ones who kept a tighter lid on Omicron through restrictions. Every successive variant seems to be just a little better at getting past defenses - but unless the damage they do starts reversing course, it won't be enough to cause total chaos. And a place that was heavily hit by Omicron like US/UK is likely to see only a minor effect due to how few reinfections there will be.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The places being hit hardest by BA2 seem to be the ones who kept a tighter lid on Omicron through restrictions. Every successive variant seems to be just a little better at getting past defenses - but unless the damage they do starts reversing course, it won't be enough to cause total chaos. And a place that was heavily hit by Omicron like US/UK is likely to see only a minor effect due to how few reinfections there will be.

It looks like the uptick in the U.K. is already tapering off a tiny, tiny bit.

[Dr. MB]

The places being hit hardest by BA2 seem to be the ones who kept a tighter lid on Omicron through restrictions. Every successive variant seems to be just a little better at getting past defenses - but unless the damage they do starts reversing course, it won't be enough to cause total chaos. And a place that was heavily hit by Omicron like US/UK is likely to see only a minor effect due to how few reinfections there will be.

It looks like the uptick in the U.K. is already tapering off a tiny, tiny bit.

Also the UK always had a bit different trend line compared to here. Look:



Their Delta peak flattened it all out and cases didn't decrease much at all until Omicron hit.

vs. USA



We did actually have a bigger dip with Delta and the Omicron fall was a lot sharper.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Tennessee releases data weekly, and our week-over-week percentage decline was 52% this week versus 41% last week.  If cases were about to soar, I would expect that number to be coming down, not going up. 

Now, if we have two more weeks of cutting the cases in half each week, we'd be talking about like 115-120 cases per day statewide, which is well below even our minimum from the "virtual elimination" period last summer.  I'm skeptical that it's going to go that low, but we're already approaching early summer 2021 numbers.

[President Johnson]

Seems like this hasn't been posted yet: Doug Emhoff tested positive. However, Biden and Kamala were tested negative.

https://twitter.com/SecondGentleman/status/1503880657797357575

[Calthrina950]

BA.2 will be the next wave in April-May-June.

No one cares.

Democrats will be hurt electorally if they use BA.2 as justification to reimpose restrictions or mandates.

I'm already seeing some covid fear porn ratcheting back up with "spring break fears" and stuff like this. And inevitably, some pollsters will show Americans want restrictions back.

But Democrats' behavior will tell the real story. It's clear they know the real numbers, because this rush to lift restrictions didn't come with any public polls showing their policies were unpopular, but they did it anyway in a very coordinated way.

I've seen it as well. The media certainly doesn't want to let this go.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

BA.2 will be the next wave in April-May-June.

No one cares.

Democrats will be hurt electorally if they use BA.2 as justification to reimpose restrictions or mandates.

I'm already seeing some covid fear porn ratcheting back up with "spring break fears" and stuff like this. And inevitably, some pollsters will show Americans want restrictions back.

But Democrats' behavior will tell the real story. It's clear they know the real numbers, because this rush to lift restrictions didn't come with any public polls showing their policies were unpopular, but they did it anyway in a very coordinated way.

I've seen it as well. The media certainly doesn't want to let this go.

The division-generating press is the real opponent of the American people's welfare re:Covid at this point. We can only overcome this by working together across party lines and telling them "no cigar".

[emailking]

I don't think they should "let it go" as there is a non-trivial chance the virus could mutate and surge again. Obviously some balance will be needed. But the news is almost 100% Ukraine for 3 weeks now, so I'm not sure what you guys are seeing.

[Joe Biden 2028]

Anyone cares that both the capitol building and white house are opening up again?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

For the first time since July 15, America's 7-day average of new cases is below 30,000 - at 29,792.

[emailking]

I think that's the first calendar day without a new post in this thread. A good sign I guess!

[Hammy]

I think that's the first calendar day without a new post in this thread. A good sign I guess!

Big question though, would this be the case were it not for Ukraine.

[Torie]

Krugman writes an interesting piece about China's failed covid policy (inferior vaccine, ignoring old people, etc), exacerbated by an autocratic government. He also says that most have missed this story because they are distracted by Ukraine, but he did not because he has disciplined himself to limit his attention to Ukraine down to 13 hours a day. What a mensch he is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/17/opinion/china-russia-xi-jin-ping.html

[Torie]

And that booster shots half life appears to have been shorter than hoped, although it is unclear about the degree of waning efficacy against severe disease. In any event it appears that a second booster will become available for those 65 and older very soon, and now Moderna is pushing to make it available to all adults.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/18/world/covid-19-mandates-cases-vaccine#second-booster-covid-moderna

[DINGO Joe]

After the avg age of those dying from Covid dropped substantially last year, it did swing back to older people in Jan/Feb, not as old as pre-vaccine but older than the Delta wave deaths.  Probably were more breakthrough deaths of the vaxxed or at least the unboosted than in prior months.  Deaths still trending more towards white people but not as dramatically as the Delta wave months at the end of 2021.

[compucomp]

Krugman writes an interesting piece about China's failed covid policy (inferior vaccine, ignoring old people, etc), exacerbated by an autocratic government. He also says that most have missed this story because they are distracted by Ukraine, but he did not because he has disciplined himself to limit his attention to Ukraine down to 13 hours a day. What a mensch he is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/17/opinion/china-russia-xi-jin-ping.html

COVID Deaths in China: 4,636
COVID Deaths in USA: 968,663 (per NYT tracker)

If you say China is undercounting their deaths, fine, multiply it by 10, or even 100, it's still a far superior result to the USA, particularly since China's population is roughly 4x USA. You can call me a shill or whatever but numbers don't lie and they are still staring you in the face.

[Torie]

Krugman writes an interesting piece about China's failed covid policy (inferior vaccine, ignoring old people, etc), exacerbated by an autocratic government. He also says that most have missed this story because they are distracted by Ukraine, but he did not because he has disciplined himself to limit his attention to Ukraine down to 13 hours a day. What a mensch he is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/17/opinion/china-russia-xi-jin-ping.html

COVID Deaths in China: 4,636
COVID Deaths in USA: 968,663 (per NYT tracker)

If you say China is undercounting their deaths, fine, multiply it by 10, or even 100, it's still a far superior result to the USA, particularly since China's population is roughly 4x USA. You can call me a shill or whatever but numbers don't lie and they are still staring you in the face.

I am a mere conduit and have no personal knowledge or expertise about any of this. But Krugman's rap is that while China due to its autocracy and the obedience of its citizens (I touch on the obedience thing elsewhere and actually used your screen name to boot), has done well in containing the contagion, because it has inferior vaccines, and because containing the contagion cannot keep the genie in the bottle forever, it is all coming home to roost now, and China will start to catch up some with the morbidity level reached elsewhere.

In any event, if you think Krugman is fill of sh*t, take it up with him, not me. Thanks.

[Aurelius]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/briefing/covid-risks-poll-americans.html

Increasingly clear that a large majority of the "very liberal" are completely out of touch with reality on covid. It's essentially a domestic fifth column that opposes all that is good in life, everything that makes life worth living.

Sane policymaking would studiously ignore them. It's high time that all remaining masking, capacity, and vaccination restrictions be removed, even in "high risk" environments and especially in schools.

Those who disagree have the right to stay locked up at home. They do not have the right to continue to impose their overbearing safetyism on the rest of us. And no, I have no patience for coddling the unvaccinated either. They can reap what they sowed.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/briefing/covid-risks-poll-americans.html

Increasingly clear that a large majority of the "very liberal" are completely out of touch with reality on covid. It's essentially a domestic fifth column that opposes all that is good in life, everything that makes life worth living.

Sane policymaking would studiously ignore them. It's high time that all remaining masking, capacity, and vaccination restrictions be removed, even in "high risk" environments and especially in schools.

Those who disagree have the right to stay locked up at home. They do not have the right to continue to impose their overbearing safetyism on the rest of us. And no, I have no patience for coddling the unvaccinated either. They can reap what they sowed.

I've noticed that the media has taken to hyping up the BA.2 variant now, and in general has been paying more attention to the pandemic now, since the Ukrainian war seems to have "calmed down" into some kind of stalemate, compared to its early stages. I'm not sure if I come across as a conspiracy theorist, but I've long been of the belief that the media has no real desire for the pandemic to end, or for normalcy to return, and sees coverage of it as an easy way to boost their ratings.

[emailking]

I just don't know where you're seeing this. I only know about BA.2 because of this thread.

[Calthrina950]

I just don't know where you're seeing this. I only know about BA.2 because of this thread.

I overheard a segment on ABC News where they were talking to Dr. Fauci about the BA.2 variant and he was expressing his concerns about a resurgence in cases. Specifically, Fauci said that we "might" have to return to precautions, such as mask-wearing and the like, although he is hopeful that won't be the case and did say that we are in a better situation now than previously.

[Calthrina950]

At long last, will Joe Biden rid us of this ridiculous man and his dictates?

Biden is not going to do it, and I'm pretty sure you know why. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump or DeSantis, if they regain the Presidency for Republicans in 2024, try to move against Fauci. But he has some protection due to the limitations on the President's appointment power (i.e. "inferior officers" and "for cause" removal provisions). I have said before that Fauci should have retired long ago. He's closing in on 38 years as the Director of the Center for Infectious Diseases.

[Raccoon]

Before we all get into arguments about the BA2 variant,

I want to make it very clear that I do not care about it.

Thank you