COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Bandit3 the Worker]

When do you guys think the TSA mandate will expire?

April 18. Everyone wants it gone.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Probably April 18th, coupled with an ending of the requirement for Americans to get tested before returning to the US.  The CEOs of every airline sent Biden a letter demanding both (the latter reduces demand for international travel due to the uncertainty it would cause).

It wouldn't totally stun me if it is canceled before April 18th, but I'll say that it is announced before then but not allowed to go into effect until 4/18.

[Raccoon]

https://www.popdust.com/online-leftist-language-2650803862.html

Much of covid-discourse online had this problem.

[Hammy]

My county has logged no new cases since March 14.

[MasterJedi]

Can’t find it anymore but something from the NYT about 52% of Americans say they have had COVID. 57% of Republicans, 38% of Democrats.

[Dr. MB]

When do you guys think the TSA mandate will expire?

April 18. Everyone wants it gone.

Everyone wants the TSA gone too while we’re at it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

When do you guys think the TSA mandate will expire?

April 18. Everyone wants it gone.

Everyone wants the TSA gone too while we’re at it.

This I can agree with; we would be much better off with about 90% less airport security.

[Asta]

Masks aren’t even that effective to begin with unless you’re already sick. The virus is mild now and transmission is relatively low (although likely to oscillate over the next several months) anyway. Masking is mostly a false sense of security at this point yet a few people here and in other places I know online continue to do it because they’ve become germaphobes thanks to the Democrats fear mongering (even if it was justified pre-vaccine) of the virus. They should be allowed to do it yes but I should also be allowed to think it’s dumb.

I mentioned above that there is one coworker at my job who stopped wearing a mask this week, after having held out for a month. He told me that he was waiting to get his booster shot, and now that he has it, he's done. At least he had a relatively good reason. But I had another coworker who went maskless for a few days, after having held out, because she said that the mask was uncomfortable.

But she went right back to masking after that, and I don't know when she is going to stop. And there is yet another coworker-an older lady-who is still masking up, but with a cloth mask that she doesn't even fit on properly. There is one more coworker who is still wearing an N95 mask, although none of the other people in her department are still masking up. Everyone has their preferences, but I don't always understand them.

Among the people in my area that still wear masks even outside, a big number of them tends to be East Asian immigrants who still maintain culturally considerate and collective behavior they brought over from their native land where wearing masks during cold/flu season in pre-covid era was already prevalent. I understand this thread has been inundated with obsessive level as to why the pandemic is not ending, but this behavior is not limited to the US.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01057-z

"....... in a survey in Germany among >650 respondents, we find that the majority plans to use face masks in certain situations even after the end of the pandemic. We observe that this willingness is strongly related to the perception that there is something to be learned from East Asians’ handling of pandemics, even when controlling for perceived protection by wearing masks. Given strong empirical evidence that face masks help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases and given the considerable estimated health and economic costs of such diseases even pre-Corona, this would be a very positive side effect of the current crisis."

Why some choose to wear masks is not related to Biden, Fauci or government's fearmongering, as you can see the remnant behavior exists in countries like Germany too.
Certain events can and will change mindsets for the long term. It's the same reason why considerable number of employers have made remote work viable even after the economy has mostly opened up: less need to come to office so frequently when productivity and lifestyle balance can be achieved without having as much contact and commute-related stress.

Even though I mostly avoid wearing masks, I perfectly understand why some continue to wear them. In epidemiology, there are rarely such things as absolutes and guarantees. We should respect that culture, risk aversion and lingering effects of trauma affect everyone differently.

[Horus]

Masks aren’t even that effective to begin with unless you’re already sick. The virus is mild now and transmission is relatively low (although likely to oscillate over the next several months) anyway. Masking is mostly a false sense of security at this point yet a few people here and in other places I know online continue to do it because they’ve become germaphobes thanks to the Democrats fear mongering (even if it was justified pre-vaccine) of the virus. They should be allowed to do it yes but I should also be allowed to think it’s dumb.

I mentioned above that there is one coworker at my job who stopped wearing a mask this week, after having held out for a month. He told me that he was waiting to get his booster shot, and now that he has it, he's done. At least he had a relatively good reason. But I had another coworker who went maskless for a few days, after having held out, because she said that the mask was uncomfortable.

But she went right back to masking after that, and I don't know when she is going to stop. And there is yet another coworker-an older lady-who is still masking up, but with a cloth mask that she doesn't even fit on properly. There is one more coworker who is still wearing an N95 mask, although none of the other people in her department are still masking up. Everyone has their preferences, but I don't always understand them.

Among the people in my area that still wear masks even outside, a big number of them tends to be East Asian immigrants who still maintain culturally considerate and collective neurotic and anti social behavior they brought over from their native land where wearing masks during cold/flu season in pre-covid era was already prevalent. I understand this thread has been inundated with obsessive level as to why the pandemic is not ending, but this behavior is not limited to the US.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01057-z

"....... in a survey in Germany among >650 respondents, we find that the majority plans to use face masks in certain situations even after the end of the pandemic. We observe that this willingness is strongly related to the perception that there is something to be learned from East Asians’ handling of pandemics, even when controlling for perceived protection by wearing masks. Given strong empirical evidence that face masks help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases and given the considerable estimated health and economic costs of such diseases even pre-Corona, this would be a very positive side effect of the current crisis."

Why some choose to wear masks is not related to Biden, Fauci or government's fearmongering, as you can see the remnant behavior exists in countries like Germany too.
Certain events can and will change mindsets for the long term. It's the same reason why considerable number of employers have made remote work viable even after the economy has mostly opened up: less need to come to office so frequently when productivity and lifestyle balance can be achieved without having as much contact and commute-related stress.

Even though I mostly avoid wearing masks, I perfectly understand why some continue to wear them. In epidemiology, there are rarely such things as absolutes and guarantees. We should respect that culture, risk aversion and lingering effects of trauma affect everyone differently.

Ftfy

[Asta]

Masks aren’t even that effective to begin with unless you’re already sick. The virus is mild now and transmission is relatively low (although likely to oscillate over the next several months) anyway. Masking is mostly a false sense of security at this point yet a few people here and in other places I know online continue to do it because they’ve become germaphobes thanks to the Democrats fear mongering (even if it was justified pre-vaccine) of the virus. They should be allowed to do it yes but I should also be allowed to think it’s dumb.

I mentioned above that there is one coworker at my job who stopped wearing a mask this week, after having held out for a month. He told me that he was waiting to get his booster shot, and now that he has it, he's done. At least he had a relatively good reason. But I had another coworker who went maskless for a few days, after having held out, because she said that the mask was uncomfortable.

But she went right back to masking after that, and I don't know when she is going to stop. And there is yet another coworker-an older lady-who is still masking up, but with a cloth mask that she doesn't even fit on properly. There is one more coworker who is still wearing an N95 mask, although none of the other people in her department are still masking up. Everyone has their preferences, but I don't always understand them.

Among the people in my area that still wear masks even outside, a big number of them tends to be East Asian immigrants who still maintain culturally considerate and collective neurotic and anti social behavior they brought over from their native land where wearing masks during cold/flu season in pre-covid era was already prevalent. I understand this thread has been inundated with obsessive level as to why the pandemic is not ending, but this behavior is not limited to the US.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01057-z

"....... in a survey in Germany among >650 respondents, we find that the majority plans to use face masks in certain situations even after the end of the pandemic. We observe that this willingness is strongly related to the perception that there is something to be learned from East Asians’ handling of pandemics, even when controlling for perceived protection by wearing masks. Given strong empirical evidence that face masks help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases and given the considerable estimated health and economic costs of such diseases even pre-Corona, this would be a very positive side effect of the current crisis."

Why some choose to wear masks is not related to Biden, Fauci or government's fearmongering, as you can see the remnant behavior exists in countries like Germany too.
Certain events can and will change mindsets for the long term. It's the same reason why considerable number of employers have made remote work viable even after the economy has mostly opened up: less need to come to office so frequently when productivity and lifestyle balance can be achieved without having as much contact and commute-related stress.

Even though I mostly avoid wearing masks, I perfectly understand why some continue to wear them. In epidemiology, there are rarely such things as absolutes and guarantees. We should respect that culture, risk aversion and lingering effects of trauma affect everyone differently.

Ftfy

This is speculation at best. If their behavior is as you posit, then they should have extremely high anxiety medication and antidepressant usage rates, but they don't.

[Horus]

Masks aren’t even that effective to begin with unless you’re already sick. The virus is mild now and transmission is relatively low (although likely to oscillate over the next several months) anyway. Masking is mostly a false sense of security at this point yet a few people here and in other places I know online continue to do it because they’ve become germaphobes thanks to the Democrats fear mongering (even if it was justified pre-vaccine) of the virus. They should be allowed to do it yes but I should also be allowed to think it’s dumb.

I mentioned above that there is one coworker at my job who stopped wearing a mask this week, after having held out for a month. He told me that he was waiting to get his booster shot, and now that he has it, he's done. At least he had a relatively good reason. But I had another coworker who went maskless for a few days, after having held out, because she said that the mask was uncomfortable.

But she went right back to masking after that, and I don't know when she is going to stop. And there is yet another coworker-an older lady-who is still masking up, but with a cloth mask that she doesn't even fit on properly. There is one more coworker who is still wearing an N95 mask, although none of the other people in her department are still masking up. Everyone has their preferences, but I don't always understand them.

Among the people in my area that still wear masks even outside, a big number of them tends to be East Asian immigrants who still maintain culturally considerate and collective neurotic and anti social behavior they brought over from their native land where wearing masks during cold/flu season in pre-covid era was already prevalent. I understand this thread has been inundated with obsessive level as to why the pandemic is not ending, but this behavior is not limited to the US.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01057-z

"....... in a survey in Germany among >650 respondents, we find that the majority plans to use face masks in certain situations even after the end of the pandemic. We observe that this willingness is strongly related to the perception that there is something to be learned from East Asians’ handling of pandemics, even when controlling for perceived protection by wearing masks. Given strong empirical evidence that face masks help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases and given the considerable estimated health and economic costs of such diseases even pre-Corona, this would be a very positive side effect of the current crisis."

Why some choose to wear masks is not related to Biden, Fauci or government's fearmongering, as you can see the remnant behavior exists in countries like Germany too.
Certain events can and will change mindsets for the long term. It's the same reason why considerable number of employers have made remote work viable even after the economy has mostly opened up: less need to come to office so frequently when productivity and lifestyle balance can be achieved without having as much contact and commute-related stress.

Even though I mostly avoid wearing masks, I perfectly understand why some continue to wear them. In epidemiology, there are rarely such things as absolutes and guarantees. We should respect that culture, risk aversion and lingering effects of trauma affect everyone differently.

Ftfy

This is speculation at best. If their behavior is as you posit, then they should have extremely high anxiety medication and antidepressant usage rates, but they don't.

I would bet everything I own that eternal maskers in the United States and other Western countries have much higher rates of anxiety and depression than John Q Public, and I say that as someone taking antidepressants.

[Asta]

Masks aren’t even that effective to begin with unless you’re already sick. The virus is mild now and transmission is relatively low (although likely to oscillate over the next several months) anyway. Masking is mostly a false sense of security at this point yet a few people here and in other places I know online continue to do it because they’ve become germaphobes thanks to the Democrats fear mongering (even if it was justified pre-vaccine) of the virus. They should be allowed to do it yes but I should also be allowed to think it’s dumb.

I mentioned above that there is one coworker at my job who stopped wearing a mask this week, after having held out for a month. He told me that he was waiting to get his booster shot, and now that he has it, he's done. At least he had a relatively good reason. But I had another coworker who went maskless for a few days, after having held out, because she said that the mask was uncomfortable.

But she went right back to masking after that, and I don't know when she is going to stop. And there is yet another coworker-an older lady-who is still masking up, but with a cloth mask that she doesn't even fit on properly. There is one more coworker who is still wearing an N95 mask, although none of the other people in her department are still masking up. Everyone has their preferences, but I don't always understand them.

Among the people in my area that still wear masks even outside, a big number of them tends to be East Asian immigrants who still maintain culturally considerate and collective neurotic and anti social behavior they brought over from their native land where wearing masks during cold/flu season in pre-covid era was already prevalent. I understand this thread has been inundated with obsessive level as to why the pandemic is not ending, but this behavior is not limited to the US.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01057-z

"....... in a survey in Germany among >650 respondents, we find that the majority plans to use face masks in certain situations even after the end of the pandemic. We observe that this willingness is strongly related to the perception that there is something to be learned from East Asians’ handling of pandemics, even when controlling for perceived protection by wearing masks. Given strong empirical evidence that face masks help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases and given the considerable estimated health and economic costs of such diseases even pre-Corona, this would be a very positive side effect of the current crisis."

Why some choose to wear masks is not related to Biden, Fauci or government's fearmongering, as you can see the remnant behavior exists in countries like Germany too.
Certain events can and will change mindsets for the long term. It's the same reason why considerable number of employers have made remote work viable even after the economy has mostly opened up: less need to come to office so frequently when productivity and lifestyle balance can be achieved without having as much contact and commute-related stress.

Even though I mostly avoid wearing masks, I perfectly understand why some continue to wear them. In epidemiology, there are rarely such things as absolutes and guarantees. We should respect that culture, risk aversion and lingering effects of trauma affect everyone differently.

Ftfy

This is speculation at best. If their behavior is as you posit, then they should have extremely high anxiety medication and antidepressant usage rates, but they don't.

I would bet everything I own that eternal maskers in the United States and other Western countries have much higher rates of anxiety and depression than John Q Public, and I say that as someone taking antidepressants.

I was talking about East Asian immigrants in my sentence. If you're broadly speaking of all eternal maskers in the West only, I don't challenge your claim.

In China, oddly enough, properly adhering to masks guideline seems to be inversely correlated with anxiety though I admit this can have a different effect in the West.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8695308/

[emailking]

Everybody has some neurotic quirks. It's not a big deal.

[Torie]

A second booster has just been authorized for everyone 50 and over if it has been more than 4 months since your first booster.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/29/world/covid-19-mandates-cases-vaccine

[Calthrina950]

Masks aren’t even that effective to begin with unless you’re already sick. The virus is mild now and transmission is relatively low (although likely to oscillate over the next several months) anyway. Masking is mostly a false sense of security at this point yet a few people here and in other places I know online continue to do it because they’ve become germaphobes thanks to the Democrats fear mongering (even if it was justified pre-vaccine) of the virus. They should be allowed to do it yes but I should also be allowed to think it’s dumb.

I mentioned above that there is one coworker at my job who stopped wearing a mask this week, after having held out for a month. He told me that he was waiting to get his booster shot, and now that he has it, he's done. At least he had a relatively good reason. But I had another coworker who went maskless for a few days, after having held out, because she said that the mask was uncomfortable.

But she went right back to masking after that, and I don't know when she is going to stop. And there is yet another coworker-an older lady-who is still masking up, but with a cloth mask that she doesn't even fit on properly. There is one more coworker who is still wearing an N95 mask, although none of the other people in her department are still masking up. Everyone has their preferences, but I don't always understand them.

Among the people in my area that still wear masks even outside, a big number of them tends to be East Asian immigrants who still maintain culturally considerate and collective behavior they brought over from their native land where wearing masks during cold/flu season in pre-covid era was already prevalent. I understand this thread has been inundated with obsessive level as to why the pandemic is not ending, but this behavior is not limited to the US.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01057-z

"....... in a survey in Germany among >650 respondents, we find that the majority plans to use face masks in certain situations even after the end of the pandemic. We observe that this willingness is strongly related to the perception that there is something to be learned from East Asians’ handling of pandemics, even when controlling for perceived protection by wearing masks. Given strong empirical evidence that face masks help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases and given the considerable estimated health and economic costs of such diseases even pre-Corona, this would be a very positive side effect of the current crisis."

Why some choose to wear masks is not related to Biden, Fauci or government's fearmongering, as you can see the remnant behavior exists in countries like Germany too.
Certain events can and will change mindsets for the long term. It's the same reason why considerable number of employers have made remote work viable even after the economy has mostly opened up: less need to come to office so frequently when productivity and lifestyle balance can be achieved without having as much contact and commute-related stress.

Even though I mostly avoid wearing masks, I perfectly understand why some continue to wear them. In epidemiology, there are rarely such things as absolutes and guarantees. We should respect that culture, risk aversion and lingering effects of trauma affect everyone differently.

Well, I'm aware of the custom in Asia of widespread mask-wearing in public, which has been present there for decades. And I've said before myself that many people are going to wear masks seasonally or in perpetuity going forward. I'm not sure if this is as positive a development as you seem to believe it is, but it's one that is certainly going to linger. I've also noticed that older people are more likely to mask up than younger people, perhaps because they have underlying conditions or other concerns.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

For all the fear-mongering about the BA2 variant, cases have continued to (albeit slowly) decline, down 10% in the last week nationally.  They have ticked up a bit in some places that have less natural immunity and got hit less hard by the first Omicron wave, but I don't see anything to suggest that we're heading for another massive spike.

I could see it being like last spring's "April wave", where cases plateaued/slightly rose nationally due to increases in a couple places, while continuing to slowly fall in the South.

[Frodo]

Coronavirus deaths in the U.S. fall to their lowest point since the summer.

Fewer than 800 coronavirus deaths are being reported each day in the United States, the lowest daily average since before the Omicron variant took hold late last fall. The last time the rate was this low was in mid-August, according to a New York Times database.

Trends in deaths lag behind cases and hospitalizations by weeks because of the time it takes for people to become seriously ill, and the time needed to complete and file death records.

The seven-day average of new cases has also dropped significantly from the height of the Omicron surge. Though the decrease has slowed in recent days, the average has hovered this past week around 30,000 cases per day, a level last seen in July. Coronavirus hospitalizations plummeted in the last two weeks by about 36 percent, to about 18,000 per day. Intensive care unit hospitalizations have fallen too — by about 43 percent — to under 3,000.

There is always a 'but'...

But as cases increased in parts of Europe, scientists and health officials have already been warning of another rise in U.S. cases and, with it, the first major test of the country’s strategy of living with the virus while limiting its impact. Top U.S. health officials reiterated concerns last week about the impact of stalled Covid-19 response aid amid the spread of BA.2, a highly transmissible Omicron subvariant accounting for about 35 percent of new U.S. cases, as of Monday, and a form of the virus similar to what swept through the nation this winter.

[LabourJersey]

Coronavirus deaths in the U.S. fall to their lowest point since the summer.

Fewer than 800 coronavirus deaths are being reported each day in the United States, the lowest daily average since before the Omicron variant took hold late last fall. The last time the rate was this low was in mid-August, according to a New York Times database.

Trends in deaths lag behind cases and hospitalizations by weeks because of the time it takes for people to become seriously ill, and the time needed to complete and file death records.

The seven-day average of new cases has also dropped significantly from the height of the Omicron surge. Though the decrease has slowed in recent days, the average has hovered this past week around 30,000 cases per day, a level last seen in July. Coronavirus hospitalizations plummeted in the last two weeks by about 36 percent, to about 18,000 per day. Intensive care unit hospitalizations have fallen too — by about 43 percent — to under 3,000.

There is always a 'but'...

But as cases increased in parts of Europe, scientists and health officials have already been warning of another rise in U.S. cases and, with it, the first major test of the country’s strategy of living with the virus while limiting its impact. Top U.S. health officials reiterated concerns last week about the impact of stalled Covid-19 response aid amid the spread of BA.2, a highly transmissible Omicron subvariant accounting for about 35 percent of new U.S. cases, as of Monday, and a form of the virus similar to what swept through the nation this winter.

one thing I still don't understand: what is the difference between a variant of a virus and a "subvariant"? It it's sufficiently close enough to the original that it can't be classified as a distinct virus, does that mean anyone who already caught the original BA virus would be immune?

[emailking]

Biden got his 2nd booster today. Great! I hope they extend to under 50 soon so I can get one. I've decided I'll try to do it on a Friday and tough it out. I don't want Omicron or BA.2.

LabourJersey, I was kind of wondering that too lol.

[Lief 🗽]

Thank you Mr. President!
https://twitter.com/potus/status/1509259692878540804?s=21

[Mr. Illini]

With the FDA authorization, it seems that we are on our way to an annual Covid vaccination with a Spring booster for the vulnerable, just as we have with the flu.

This is very positive as most of the country is no longer waiting by the phone for news of the next booster approval. Normalizing the vaccination as an annual ritual is the best way forward.

[Joe Biden 2028]

With the FDA authorization, it seems that we are on our way to an annual Covid vaccination with a Spring booster for the vulnerable, just as we have with the flu.

This is very positive as most of the country is no longer waiting by the phone for news of the next booster approval. Normalizing the vaccination as an annual ritual is the best way forward.

I'm sorry, what? I guarantee you most Americans do not know/care about booster approval. Waiting by their phones for notifications is a little silly tbh

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I thought I'd visualize the NY Times data in terms of cases relative to the current national average of 8 cases/100K people.  The dark green states have case rates akin to the national rate during the period in June 2021 when we all thought it was over.



Dark Red: 12+ cases/100K (150%+ of national average)
Light Red: 9-11 cases/100K
Neutral: 8 cases/100K (national average)
Light Green: 5-7 cases/100K
Dark Green: </=4 cases/100K (50% of national average)

The biggest trends that stick out are the relatively high cases in the Northeast and the extremely low cases in the Deep South.  Kentucky really sticks out as an outlier, but their map shows that it's almost all in the eastern part of the state for some reason.  Generally speaking, cases are rising in the Northeast and falling elsewhere.

Louisiana and South Dakota have the lowest rates (at 2/100K), and Alaska has the highest rate (at 28/100K).

[Mr. Illini]

With the FDA authorization, it seems that we are on our way to an annual Covid vaccination with a Spring booster for the vulnerable, just as we have with the flu.

This is very positive as most of the country is no longer waiting by the phone for news of the next booster approval. Normalizing the vaccination as an annual ritual is the best way forward.

I'm sorry, what? I guarantee you most Americans do not know/care about booster approval. Waiting by their phones for notifications is a little silly tbh

It’s just a phrase, and I said people are largely *not* paying close attention to it anymore.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I thought I'd visualize the NY Times data in terms of cases relative to the current national average of 8 cases/100K people.  The dark green states have case rates akin to the national rate during the period in June 2021 when we all thought it was over.



Dark Red: 12+ cases/100K (150%+ of national average)
Light Red: 9-11 cases/100K
Neutral: 8 cases/100K (national average)
Light Green: 5-7 cases/100K
Dark Green: </=4 cases/100K (50% of national average)

The biggest trends that stick out are the relatively high cases in the Northeast and the extremely low cases in the Deep South.  Kentucky really sticks out as an outlier, but their map shows that it's almost all in the eastern part of the state for some reason.  Generally speaking, cases are rising in the Northeast and falling elsewhere.

Louisiana and South Dakota have the lowest rates (at 2/100K), and Alaska has the highest rate (at 28/100K).

Eastern Kentucky is basically the last place in the country to be in the midst of the initial Omicron wave. The northeastern states are a the start of the wave of the newer variant.