NC GOV 2024 - Stein (D) vs Robinson (R)

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/davidmdrucker/status/1714584168900776234?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

I don't see it. Robinson has enough institutional support already I think he wins no matter what.

Agreed

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/davidmdrucker/status/1714584168900776234?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

This is like national Republicans trying to beat Trump. It's just not happening.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/davidmdrucker/status/1714584168900776234?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

I don't see it. Robinson has enough institutional support already I think he wins no matter what.

The general election too. North Carolina is still a red state.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/davidmdrucker/status/1714584168900776234?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

I don't see it. Robinson has enough institutional support already I think he wins no matter what.

The general election too. North Carolina is still a red state.

No. It’s a battleground state.

[You don't see any blue avatars now]

https://twitter.com/davidmdrucker/status/1714584168900776234?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

I don't see it. Robinson has enough institutional support already I think he wins no matter what.

The general election too. North Carolina is still a red state.

We literally won NC-GOV both of the most recent times. NC may be red at the federal level, but not at the state level.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/davidmdrucker/status/1714584168900776234?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

I don't see it. Robinson has enough institutional support already I think he wins no matter what.

The general election too. North Carolina is still a red state.

We literally won NC-GOV both of the most recent times. NC may be red at the federal level, but not at the state level.

It’s not a red state any more than PA a blue one.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Stein barely survived in 2020 even with incumbency advantage. Robinson won by a healthier 3.6% even after the controversial stuff came out. From what I've seen nothing new has come out since, do the Democrats just plan on using it again and hope it works this time? I mean I guess it could, since its more famous race. However, people writing Robinson off already are jumping the gun.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Stein barely survived in 2020 even with incumbency advantage. Robinson won by a healthier 3.6% even after the controversial stuff came out. From what I've seen nothing new has come out since, do the Democrats just plan on using it again and hope it works this time? I mean I guess it could, since its more famous race. However, people writing Robinson off already are jumping the gun.

The theory, which I believe has some weight, is that Robinson won cause the dem nominee campaigned poorly and also the fact no one really cares about a Lt. Gov election so no one paid attention, especially when you had a number of higher profile races going on (like the AG)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If Robinson actually wins next year, the federal government should find a way to mandate every North Carolinian to report to weekly IOP care.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/carolinajournal/status/1717258381071683868?s=46&t=-r8JGl...

[Bush did 311]

The problem with NC is that the cities aren't big enough.

Wake (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte), the largest 2 counties by far, are 1 million apiece, and the state has 10 million people, so that is only 20% of the population. NC has other cities of course, and when you add up the next 5 largest: Guilford (Greensboro), Forsyth (Winston-Salem), Durham (Durham), Cumberland (Fayetteville), and Buncombe (Asheville), that gets you to 4 million or 40%.

All of those cities are blue and yet they are outweighed by NC's huge rural population which is getting redder.

Pretty much the only chance NC dems have is to embiggen the major cities as much as possible until the percentage of the population in the top 7 counties is more than 50% of the state.

[Tekken_Guy]

The problem with NC is that the cities aren't big enough.

Wake (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte), the largest 2 counties by far, are 1 million apiece, and the state has 10 million people, so that is only 20% of the population. NC has other cities of course, and when you add up the next 5 largest: Guilford (Greensboro), Forsyth (Winston-Salem), Durham (Durham), Cumberland (Fayetteville), and Buncombe (Asheville), that gets you to 4 million or 40%.

All of those cities are blue and yet they are outweighed by NC's huge rural population which is getting redder.

Pretty much the only chance NC dems have is to embiggen the major cities as much as possible until the percentage of the population in the top 7 counties is more than 50% of the state.

The cities are only getting bluer too.

[Galeel]

Stein barely survived in 2020 even with incumbency advantage. Robinson won by a healthier 3.6% even after the controversial stuff came out. From what I've seen nothing new has come out since, do the Democrats just plan on using it again and hope it works this time? I mean I guess it could, since its more famous race. However, people writing Robinson off already are jumping the gun.

A governor race and a lt. governor race are totally different ballgames. Robinson is pretty much the Mastriano of NC when it comes to nuttiness and that's bound to hurt him.

[Spectator]

The problem with NC is that the cities aren't big enough.

Wake (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte), the largest 2 counties by far, are 1 million apiece, and the state has 10 million people, so that is only 20% of the population. NC has other cities of course, and when you add up the next 5 largest: Guilford (Greensboro), Forsyth (Winston-Salem), Durham (Durham), Cumberland (Fayetteville), and Buncombe (Asheville), that gets you to 4 million or 40%.

All of those cities are blue and yet they are outweighed by NC's huge rural population which is getting redder.

Pretty much the only chance NC dems have is to embiggen the major cities as much as possible until the percentage of the population in the top 7 counties is more than 50% of the state.

The other 60% still has decently populated places like New Hanover County, Pitt County, Watauga County, and Orange County. All were won by Biden. And Cabarrus County is swinging decidedly left with Union following by a slower extent.

It’s not that dramatic of a hill to climb for Dems, but they keep seeming to come up just short in every federal race.

[Bush did 311]

Flipping Union and Cabarras would be the same effect as making Mecklenburg bigger essentially. Those are the 8th and 9th largest counties and the only red ones in the top 10. New Hanover at 10th is a swing county. Wilmington is a college town and a nice coastal city but there are a lot of retirement communities on the coast as well. It's too early to say if it'll stay in the blue column.

It's not necessarily that Democrats are doing things super wrong it's that Republicans were extremely effective at seizing power when they were at their strongest, locking down a permanent majority that will last regardless of demographic trends through gerrymandering, and passing a barrage of bills that governed the state like it was a dark red state when they managed to get a governor in, and then shifting nearly all executive powers to the legislature when their governor lost reelection.

There is a certain type of lefty that is totally fine with living in a red state and being the political minority. But, the people that move to Austin or Nashville know what they're getting into and chose to do so. The people that moved here in the 90s, or who were born here, didn't necessarily sign up to be treated like unwelcome guests in their own home by a "tyranny of the minority". So, I think there have been issues with brain drain and people fleeing that have slowed the trend in the cities compared to the early 00s.

Ultimately for dems to do better they need to offer their voters here a coherent path to fix the gerrymandering and ways they would try to improve the material conditions of their voters once they got power.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Flipping Union and Cabarras would be the same effect as making Mecklenburg bigger essentially. Those are the 8th and 9th largest counties and the only red ones in the top 10. New Hanover at 10th is a swing county. Wilmington is a college town and a nice coastal city but there are a lot of retirement communities on the coast as well. It's too early to say if it'll stay in the blue column.

It's not necessarily that Democrats are doing things super wrong it's that Republicans were extremely effective at seizing power when they were at their strongest, locking down a permanent majority that will last regardless of demographic trends through gerrymandering, and passing a barrage of bills that governed the state like it was a dark red state when they managed to get a governor in, and then shifting nearly all executive powers to the legislature when their governor lost reelection.

There is a certain type of lefty that is totally fine with living in a red state and being the political minority. But, the people that move to Austin or Nashville know what they're getting into and chose to do so. The people that moved here in the 90s, or who were born here, didn't necessarily sign up to be treated like unwelcome guests in their own home by a "tyranny of the minority". So, I think there have been issues with brain drain and people fleeing that have slowed the trend in the cities compared to the early 00s.

Ultimately for dems to do better they need to offer their voters here a coherent path to fix the gerrymandering and ways they would try to improve the material conditions of their voters once they got power.

Coastal retirements communities are the bane of Carolina Democrats

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/audreyfahlberg/status/1733188495538114628?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

[SnowLabrador]

I don't think this will move the needle much in the primary. Tillis is basically persona non grata with the GOP base in North Carolina now, and I expect him to retire after two terms like Pat Toomey did. Unlike Toomey, he'll almost certainly be replaced by another Republican in 2026.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't think this will move the needle much in the primary. Tillis is basically persona non grata with the GOP base in North Carolina now, and I expect him to retire after two terms like Pat Toomey did. Unlike Toomey, he'll almost certainly be replaced by another Republican in 2026.

Depends on who's president. If it's Trump I expect the seat to flip.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think this will move the needle much in the primary. Tillis is basically persona non grata with the GOP base in North Carolina now, and I expect him to retire after two terms like Pat Toomey did. Unlike Toomey, he'll almost certainly be replaced by another Republican in 2026.

It won't be a Trump Prez

Depends on who's president. If it's Trump I expect the seat to flip.

[Bush did 311]

I don't think this will move the needle much in the primary. Tillis is basically persona non grata with the GOP base in North Carolina now, and I expect him to retire after two terms like Pat Toomey did. Unlike Toomey, he'll almost certainly be replaced by another Republican in 2026.

Cooper actually could win that. Depends who's president. NC still follows the oldschool pattern of voting 2-4 points redder in midterms compared to presidential years. Many states are the opposite of that now.

NC has resisted changing intraparty trends. I don't think the democrat or republican at the top of the ticket makes that much difference. It will be a straight partisan vote every time and better turnout wins. Changing platforms of the parties have little effect on the outcome for now. There is also little to no 3rd party influence here. Party loyalty is stronger. A very inelastic state.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RaleighReporter/status/1762874776350065079?s=20

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/RaleighReporter/status/1762874776350065079?s=20

Seems like Democrats have a major cash advantage most of the time in all critical races.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I think NC will split it's ticket again this year.

[Ferguson97]

Holocaust denier Mark Robinson has won the Republican nomination for Governor.