NC GOV 2024 - Stein (D) vs Robinson (R)

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I actually hope(d) Cheri Beasley would get another chance for higher office. She fought a good fight last year and would truly represent something new.

I’ve seen Beasley for AG being thrown around

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Why is everyone so sure Robinson will win the primary? Guy seems like a loose cannon.

That’s exactly why he’s probably going to win the primary. See Mastriano, Lake, Dixon, Cox, and so on

Republican primary voters are firmly marching hard right at nearly every opportunity.

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Why is everyone so sure Robinson will win the primary? Guy seems like a loose cannon.

That’s exactly why he’s probably going to win the primary. See Mastriano, Lake, Dixon, Cox, and so on

Republican primary voters are firmly marching hard right at nearly every opportunity.

To a point. Loomer was rejected and so was Kathy Barnette. Sure they both lacked Trump endorsements but who is to say Trump will be all in on Robinson? Robinson is a die hard social conservative who goes way beyond normal GOP rhetoric on LGBT issues and I'm not sure Trump would give him the time of day if his primary opponent were say, Dan Bishop or Greg Murphy.

Kathy Barnette is not a great example cause she lost to another (not as nutty) Republican. And Loomer exemplifies  the one exception to the rule, the nutty caucus cannot oust an incumbent.

Robinson could very well not run or loose the primary. But at this point Robinson is the favorite.

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Jewish Democrat whose first name begins with J in race = Titanium D

Tossup -> Tilt D

With that logic, Josh Gottheimer should try to succeed Phil Murphy in 2025.

We should also try to recruit Joe Foster in New Hampshire, Justin Alfond in Maine, Jamie Raskin in Maryland, John Yarmuth in Kentucky, Jake Auchincloss in Massachusetts, and Jacob Frey in Minnesota for future gubernatorial elections.

Call it the JPAC

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Mark Robinson on Gays and Transgenders: "It's filth.  And yes I called it filth."

He's also called for the end of separation of church and state in all public schools.

If filth wasn't enough, he also compared homosexuals to cow manure, maggots, and flies.

And then, of course, in the 80s, Robinson paid for an abortion for his then-girlfriend, later-wife.

[Wikipedia]

He's also come out against the teaching of history and science in elementary school.  [local news source]

Sweet Jesus, what a macadamia!

You’re preaching to the choir. Most North Carolina’s don’t know about him, but I can’t see a path to victory for him if Stein is smart and runs ads in this

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NC is a battleground

Love is a battlefield

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Republican Gun Foot

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I want the 2028 ticket to be Shapiro/Stein for maximum chaos and confusion

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Robinson is the Republican Fetterman but coherent.
Big dood = win

You are the first person I’ve heard to describe Robinson as coherent

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Y’all all are taking this man too seriously and giving him far too much credit

On Facebook he’s repeatedly called Michelle Obama a man, Hollywood satanic, black democrats slaves, and praised the confederate flag.

He’s also said Antifa wants to beat you, told women that “it’s not their body anymore” when they’re pregnant, and called gay people “devil worshiping child molestors”.

He is more right wing delusional than anyone republicans have nominated for any major state wide office yet

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Yeah ftr I wasn't arguing that Robinson was favored (far from it!)--just pushing back against folks running down his political skills, which are enough for him to have essentially won the Republican shadow primary.

That doesn’t take skill so much as being bat sh*t crazy. Which Robinson has in spades

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Anyone comparing him to Mastriano is a joke.
His recent ad is one of the best political ads this century. No talk of Trump or even any culture war issues. Just his inspirational background, a positive message and talk about how NC needs fixing. Interestingly criticism of NAFTA and he mentioned how he wants to get jobs back, so a populist message.
He's definitely one of the best public speakers out of politicians today, even if you disagree with him you have to acknowledge his ability to talk to people is unmatched.

https://twitter.com/NikkiBarnesFL/status/1650252653107064835

Will he do better or worse than Herschel with Black voters? Herschel got maybe 5% in the runoff.

I’d say maybe slightly better. I haven’t run the numbers but I’d assume NC has a larger rural black population, which tends to be more conservative (but also tends to not turnout as much) so who knows

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With Robinson being the nominee I’m going to say NC 2024 is more likely to go democrat then Virginia 2025

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Mark Robinson is like a modern day Marcus Garvey

Garvey envisioned a unified Africa as a one-party state, governed by himself, that would enact laws to ensure black racial purity. Although he never visited the continent, he was committed to the Back-to-Africa movement, arguing that part of the diaspora should migrate there. Garveyist ideas became increasingly popular and the UNIA grew in membership. However, his black separatist views—and his relationship with white racists like the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) in the interest of advancing their shared goal of racial separatism—caused a division between Garvey and other prominent African-American civil rights activists such as W. E. B. Du Bois who promoted racial integration.

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Change Research/Carolina Forward (left wing organization) has poll out today showing Robinson leading Stein by 3. In line with some other polls showing a tight race or Robinson leading -- PPP had Robinson up two in March and an R pollster had Stein and Robinson tied in January.

Confirms that this is sadly Tilt R. How many people in North Carolina are going to vote for Trump, but think Robinson is a bit too much?

Many, many of them. Trump is a nut, but Robinson is obscene. Trump doesn’t think Michelle Obama is a man or gay people should be eradicated

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What’s the Cheri Berry effect?

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This kind of has shades of PA-GOV in the sense that Mastriano was also polling not terribly in the very beginning when most of the general electorate did not know how crazy he was. Once they did though... we saw what happened. Obviously Stein won't win by 15, but I imagine Stein is a strong enough candidate to pull that Shapiro playbook and make sure the GE knows how batsh*t Robinson actually is. At this point, not a NC-ian, but I imagine most regular people are not aware of all the stuff he has said.

Agreed. I would expect Stein to win by a similar margin than Cooper did. Possibly close to the maximum in NC.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Stein outruns Cooper a few points. I could easily see Stein outrunning Cooper in places like Gaston, Union, Johnston, Alamance, maybe even Brunswick and Henderson. Similar to how Shapiro was able to get impressive numbers in places like York, Washington.

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This kind of has shades of PA-GOV in the sense that Mastriano was also polling not terribly in the very beginning when most of the general electorate did not know how crazy he was. Once they did though... we saw what happened. Obviously Stein won't win by 15, but I imagine Stein is a strong enough candidate to pull that Shapiro playbook and make sure the GE knows how batsh*t Robinson actually is. At this point, not a NC-ian, but I imagine most regular people are not aware of all the stuff he has said.

Agreed. I would expect Stein to win by a similar margin than Cooper did. Possibly close to the maximum in NC.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Stein outruns Cooper a few points. I could easily see Stein outrunning Cooper in places like Gaston, Union, Johnston, Alamance, maybe even Brunswick and Henderson. Similar to how Shapiro was able to get impressive numbers in places like York, Washington.

NC is a far less elastic state than PA though. Even the worst candidate would probably not fall below 45% of the vote.

You’re right. I’m not saying Stein would win with 60%, but 53-55% isn’t out of the question.

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https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1676612484570988547

The Republican nominee for governor everyone

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Random thing I noticed; the last two Attorneys General of NC became governors (Roy Cooper, Mike Easley)

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Well, Josh Stein officially has a primary. I still think Stein wins the nomination rather easily, but Morgan is a noteworthy challenger

https://twitter.com/judgemikemorgan/status/1701605870268985357?s=46&t=-r8JGl...

The use of the Law and Order font is unsubtle and has to be intentional.

DAMMIT i was going to make the same point!!!!

dun dun

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Stein barely survived in 2020 even with incumbency advantage. Robinson won by a healthier 3.6% even after the controversial stuff came out. From what I've seen nothing new has come out since, do the Democrats just plan on using it again and hope it works this time? I mean I guess it could, since its more famous race. However, people writing Robinson off already are jumping the gun.

The theory, which I believe has some weight, is that Robinson won cause the dem nominee campaigned poorly and also the fact no one really cares about a Lt. Gov election so no one paid attention, especially when you had a number of higher profile races going on (like the AG)

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Flipping Union and Cabarras would be the same effect as making Mecklenburg bigger essentially. Those are the 8th and 9th largest counties and the only red ones in the top 10. New Hanover at 10th is a swing county. Wilmington is a college town and a nice coastal city but there are a lot of retirement communities on the coast as well. It's too early to say if it'll stay in the blue column.

It's not necessarily that Democrats are doing things super wrong it's that Republicans were extremely effective at seizing power when they were at their strongest, locking down a permanent majority that will last regardless of demographic trends through gerrymandering, and passing a barrage of bills that governed the state like it was a dark red state when they managed to get a governor in, and then shifting nearly all executive powers to the legislature when their governor lost reelection.

There is a certain type of lefty that is totally fine with living in a red state and being the political minority. But, the people that move to Austin or Nashville know what they're getting into and chose to do so. The people that moved here in the 90s, or who were born here, didn't necessarily sign up to be treated like unwelcome guests in their own home by a "tyranny of the minority". So, I think there have been issues with brain drain and people fleeing that have slowed the trend in the cities compared to the early 00s.

Ultimately for dems to do better they need to offer their voters here a coherent path to fix the gerrymandering and ways they would try to improve the material conditions of their voters once they got power.

Coastal retirements communities are the bane of Carolina Democrats

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Did AIPAC campaign against the genuinely anti Semitic Mark Robinson?

Of course not, he's pro Israel.

He's also genuinely anti Semitic.

I don't even know if AIPAC has any interest in Gubernatorial races, as there are no foreign policy implications, but if they do Josh Stein is essentially the perfect candidate for them and Robinson is the easiest candidate for him to beat.

Fair point, but Robinson is so overtly anti Semitic that I would have expected AIPAC to say something.

AIPAC isn’t a Jewish lobbying group, they’re an Israeli lobbying group. In 2022 they burned money trying to oust Andy Levin, a Jewish congressman, in favor of Haley Stevens, a Protestant congressman, cause Levin had a record of criticizing Israel’s treatment of Gazans and Palestinians.

As others have said, unless the Governor of North Carolina can benefit Israel I’d be surprised if AIPAC spends any real money on this race.

There are genuine Jewish lobbying groups who I could see throwing money in, but not AIPAC.

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https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1765494719772033443?s=46&t=s9uZo2Tah6JOs...
A decade ago, this type of statement would've killed any campaign.

It still kills any campaign in a competitive race that isn’t Trump’s.

I have doubts. If you're a Democrat yes but a Republican no.

One word: Crudité