NC GOV 2024 - Stein (D) vs Robinson (R)

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1655959693137969153

Walker's a strong enough candidate to possibly beat Robinson in the primary (so is Folwell, for that matter).

This is definitely looking like a primary where a Trump endorsement could be decisive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since Presley is tied and I already know he will be Gov, Josh Stein and Joyce Craig are gonna be Gov

[Sol]

Walker's a strong enough candidate to possibly beat Robinson in the primary (so is Folwell, for that matter).

This is definitely looking like a primary where a Trump endorsement could be decisive.

Ehh, I don't know about that. Walker's 2022 primary performance was pretty low-energy. And the guy's basically 5 years out from getting drawn out of his seat; he doesn't have much to his name.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Change Research/Carolina Forward (left wing organization) has poll out today showing Robinson leading Stein by 3. In line with some other polls showing a tight race or Robinson leading -- PPP had Robinson up two in March and an R pollster had Stein and Robinson tied in January.

[Storr]

"In a CNN KFile review of his media appearances over the last five years, Robinson baselessly claimed that the Civil Rights Movement was a communist plot to “subvert capitalism” and used “to subvert free choice and where you go to school and things like that.”

“So many things were lost during the Civil Rights Movement. So many freedoms were lost during the Civil Rights Movement. They shouldn’t have been lost,”"

"Prior to his political career, Robinson frequently referred to the civil rights’ era as the “so-called Civil Rights Movement” and criticized the Greensboro lunch counter protests as a “ridiculous premise” designed to pull “the rug out from underneath capitalism and free choice and the free market.”"

"“The Civil Rights Movement destroyed hundreds of very well-run Black schools. They destroyed Black businesses across the nation. Once businesses became integrated right here in Greensboro, once Woolworth became integrated and the other cafeterias, white cafeterias became integrated, Black folks stopped going to the Black businesses. And they went out of business.”

“And they went out of business because we start [sic] giving our dollars to people who didn’t want them to begin with or want them on their terms. If we had not listened to those communists and had put our dollars in our pockets and built up our society, we could have drawn well-meaning Whites to our side and run Woolworth out of business instead of the other way around,” said Robinson."

So...he's saying we should have kept segregation???

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1656773755811643415?s=20

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Mark Robinson is like a modern day Marcus Garvey

Garvey envisioned a unified Africa as a one-party state, governed by himself, that would enact laws to ensure black racial purity. Although he never visited the continent, he was committed to the Back-to-Africa movement, arguing that part of the diaspora should migrate there. Garveyist ideas became increasingly popular and the UNIA grew in membership. However, his black separatist views—and his relationship with white racists like the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) in the interest of advancing their shared goal of racial separatism—caused a division between Garvey and other prominent African-American civil rights activists such as W. E. B. Du Bois who promoted racial integration.

[SnowLabrador]

Change Research/Carolina Forward (left wing organization) has poll out today showing Robinson leading Stein by 3. In line with some other polls showing a tight race or Robinson leading -- PPP had Robinson up two in March and an R pollster had Stein and Robinson tied in January.

Confirms that this is sadly Tilt R. How many people in North Carolina are going to vote for Trump, but think Robinson is a bit too much?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Change Research/Carolina Forward (left wing organization) has poll out today showing Robinson leading Stein by 3. In line with some other polls showing a tight race or Robinson leading -- PPP had Robinson up two in March and an R pollster had Stein and Robinson tied in January.

Confirms that this is sadly Tilt R. How many people in North Carolina are going to vote for Trump, but think Robinson is a bit too much?

Many, many of them. Trump is a nut, but Robinson is obscene. Trump doesn’t think Michelle Obama is a man or gay people should be eradicated

[Storr]

Change Research/Carolina Forward (left wing organization) has poll out today showing Robinson leading Stein by 3. In line with some other polls showing a tight race or Robinson leading -- PPP had Robinson up two in March and an R pollster had Stein and Robinson tied in January.

Confirms that this is sadly Tilt R. How many people in North Carolina are going to vote for Trump, but think Robinson is a bit too much?

In 2016 and 2020 there were enough Trump voters who voted for Cooper in the Governor's race to allow the latter to win. Not to mention both of those races were against not too controversial generic white Republicans, instead of someone with a history of saying absolutely insane stuff.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Eday is in 24 not 23 I am not worried until we get results from KY and MS Robinson has the same narrow 3 pt leads as Reeves and blks can make up 5 percentage pts

[Sol]

A majority of North Carolinians don't know who either Stein or Robinson is, and I suspect a good chunk of the people who know Robinson only know him as "he's the lieutenant governor, right?" I'm not too concerned about polling right now, especially since Carolina Forward has a vested interest in making sure the political class doesn't get too complacent about Robinson getting Mastriano'd.

[Sol]

NC row offices will also be up in 2024, here are some thoughts on them. An important note is that I don't know NCGOP politics very well, so I may be missing some stuff there.

NC Lt. Gov: Robinson isn't running for reelection, and the primary on both sides looks to be a bit of a clown car. Republicans have Sen. Burgin (who I would assume is the favorite?), Rep. Elmore, and then a bunch of randos, who assume this being a Republican primary also have a reasonable chance of Robinson-ing to the top.

On the Dem side, you have Sen. Hunt, daughter of Governor Hunt, who is the probable favorite of old guard NC Dem establishment, who talk about Hunt in the way that old Catholic grandmothers talk about JFK. There's also Rep. Raymond Smith, Sen. Ben Clark, and Sen. Sydney Batch, all of whom also have a decent shot imo. Batch represents newly Democratic areas of Southern Wake County and is seen as a rising star in the party; if the NC Democratic party had the same demographic makeup as the VA Democratic party she would be a heavy favorite. Smith used to rep Goldsboro and Clark used to represent the Sandhills. There are probably going to be some racial and geographic dynamics to this race, as there was in the 2020 primary, where Holley won the clown car by doing the best with rural Black voters; Smith or Clark seem the most likely to replicate that.

Attorney General: This seems likely to be a showdown between Jeff Jackson and Dan Bishop. This should be fairly interesting; two very ambitious sitting members of Congress duking it out for a row office because it's the de facto "next stop in line" for Governor candidates. I think Jackson maybe has a slight advantage; he's built a very strong following on social media and probably will inspire a reasonably high level of interest.

Secretary of State: Elaine Marshall will probably run again. She's basically an institution at this point; Republicans could dislodge her if 2024 is a good year for Republicans nationally or they get someone really good, but I think she's the likeliest Democrat to win a council of state election except maybe Josh Stein.

Auditor: Beth Wood may run again but if she does she would have to be a massive underdog, maybe even in the primary, on account of her hit and run. The only Republican announced against her yet is Charles Dingee.

Treasurer: Dale Folwell is running for Governor, which opens up an opportunity for Democrats since he's a fairly popular incumbent. Wesley Harris, a state representative, has announced so far and seems like a strong candidate. So far the only Republican is James Upchurch, who is a party-switcher from Guilford County and probably not very strong.

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Truitt appears to be running again. This could be an interesting race, in part because the right-wing of the GOP hates her for being insufficiently strident on their education/obscenity/CRT related obsessions (plus being hapless in the face of Dem-controlled North Carolina State Board of Education, which is why they're trying to reconfigure how all this works). No Democrats have announced yet but I assume they'll get someone decent, since NC Dems are obsessed with public education.

Commissioner of Agriculture: Troxler will win.

Commissioner of Labor: Dobson isn't running again, foiling the dreams of political scientists who wanted to see if the Cheri Berry effect was replicable. Jon Hardister and Ben Moss are both running on the GOP side so far; I assume Hardister is the favorite, since he's an NCGOP insider, but I don't know these things as well.

Commissioner of Insurance: Causey is probably the favorite; Wayne Goodwin might run again but I don't really know.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

What’s the Cheri Berry effect?

[Sol]

What’s the Cheri Berry effect?

Cherie Berry (I misspelled thanks to Cheri Beasley) is the former Republican Commissioner of Labor, who overperformed relative to what you might expect because her office decided to place photos of her in every elevator in the state.



Image by J. Collins. No changes made.

Since she left office in 2021, Dobson is the guy who's in every elevator now. He hasn't quite had the same meme-ifaction as Berry, whose ubiquity and amusing rhyming name earned her the nickname of "the Elevator Queen."

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What’s the Cheri Berry effect?

Cherie Berry (I misspelled thanks to Cheri Beasley) is the former Republican Commissioner of Labor, who overperformed relative to what you might expect because her office decided to place photos of her in every elevator in the state.



Image by J. Collins. No changes made.

Since she left office in 2021, Dobson is the guy who's in every elevator now. He hasn't quite had the same meme-ifaction as Berry, whose ubiquity and amusing rhyming name earned her the nickname of "the Elevator Queen."

Huh looked it up, someone even dressed up as her for Halloween*. Nikki Fried tried something similar in Florida and put her name on every gas station. Wonder how it would have gone for her if she had tried to run for election
*is there something more atlas than dressing up as random elected row-offices.

[Sol]

Huh looked it up, someone even dressed up as her for Halloween*. Nikki Fried tried something similar in Florida and put her name on every gas station. Wonder how it would have gone for her if she had tried to run for election
*is there something more atlas than dressing up as random elected row-offices.

The thing about the plaques with Cheri Berry's name on it is that they're hard to not notice; they're always above the control panels of the elevator at about eye level. If you're just standing in an elevator the labor commissioner's photo is really hard to miss, unlike a gas station where Nikki Fried is not going to be as visible unless her photo is required to be by the pumps or something.

Josh Dobson is the politician who I see most frequently, including prominent national figures.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

3 pts isn't that much difference it's different than blue states of course but 24 is different than any other Eday it's out Trump behind bars permanently

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Huh looked it up, someone even dressed up as her for Halloween*. Nikki Fried tried something similar in Florida and put her name on every gas station. Wonder how it would have gone for her if she had tried to run for election
*is there something more atlas than dressing up as random elected row-offices.

The thing about the plaques with Cheri Berry's name on it is that they're hard to not notice; they're always above the control panels of the elevator at about eye level. If you're just standing in an elevator the labor commissioner's photo is really hard to miss, unlike a gas station where Nikki Fried is not going to be as visible unless her photo is required to be by the pumps or something.

Josh Dobson is the politician who I see most frequently, including prominent national figures.

That's literally what she did, her name and photo was on every pump. I think the fact that she lost the primary does indicate that the effect is a bit limited.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1658636216965689344?ref_src=twsrc%5Ego...
The "unwaveringly" pro-choice turncoat Dem voted for it.

Obviously not a strict ban by relative means (of course more poor mothers will have to deliver nonviable pregnancies if they can't come to Virginia). Republicans have said they will push for further restrictions, of course.

[NewYorkExpress]

Mark Walker is offically in.

Former Republican Rep. Mark Walker launched a campaign for North Carolina governor Saturday, pitching himself as the best chance Republicans have to not squander an opportunity to flip a long sought after gubernatorial seat.

Walker’s announcement pits him against Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a MAGA-inspired former pastor who many in the state assume is the frontrunner to secure the Republican nomination.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1658636216965689344?ref_src=twsrc%5Ego...
The "unwaveringly" pro-choice turncoat Dem voted for it.

Obviously not a strict ban by relative means (of course more poor mothers will have to deliver nonviable pregnancies if they can't come to Virginia). Republicans have said they will push for further restrictions, of course.

I'm glad that Cooper at least attempted to veto it. Had he signed it into law he probably would give credence to the idea that anything above six weeks is "moderate." Hopefully North Carolina voters will finally wake the f*** up and start voting in ways that prevent right wingers from holding majorities in their legislatures and Supreme Court in the future. It might be a little late as of now, but going Democratic in 2024 for both Governor and President could be a good start.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1666165781715906562?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1666165781715906562?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

Ladies and gentleman, I give you Evangelical Trump!

[Grumpier Than Thou]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1666165781715906562?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

Holy sh*t this guy has to be a Democrat plant. There's no way.

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1666165781715906562?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

Tossup ——> Lean D.