NC GOV 2024 - Stein (D) vs Robinson (R)

[Sir Mohamed]

Calling for reparations from blacks and defending sex offenders/rapsists, I'm sure is a winning message.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Calling for reparations from blacks and defending sex offenders/rapsists, I'm sure is a winning message.

Yeah, I'm starting to think this might be more like PA-GOV than AZ-GOV.

[Not Me, Us]

Calling for reparations from blacks and defending sex offenders/rapsists, I'm sure is a winning message.

Yeah, I'm starting to think this might be more like PA-GOV than AZ-GOV.

This guy might actually be more batsh** than Mastriano. I didn't even know that was possible.

[President Johnson]

Calling for reparations from blacks and defending sex offenders/rapsists, I'm sure is a winning message.

Yeah, I'm starting to think this might be more like PA-GOV than AZ-GOV.

This guy might actually be more batsh** than Mastriano. I didn't even know that was possible.

That was my thought as well. He seems more obnoxious than Mastriano and Lake, which is already an extremely tall order. Let's hope North Carolina crystal clear rejects this moron.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1666165781715906562?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

Tossup ——> Lean D.

Stein has always had the advantage. Once people know how batsh**t Robinson is, the polls won’t look how they do now.

[CelestialAlchemy]

If Stein is smart, he'll hammer away at all the crazy stuff Robinson's said while presenting himself as a pragmatic or moderate choice.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/wsoctv/status/1667864329029316610?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The race is very close like MS and KY G between Stein and Robinson

[SnowLabrador]

Given that Trump is favored in North Carolina, it's likely a good move by Robinson to tie himself to the former President. The state's voters already elected Robinson to statewide office. The leopards are going to have a veritable feast.

[The Arizonan]

It is actually possible for Mark Robinson to win this race? He only won the lieutenant governor race because he flew under the radar.

Jewish Democrat whose first name begins with J in race = Titanium D

Tossup -> Tilt D

With that logic, Josh Gottheimer should try to succeed Phil Murphy in 2025.

We should also try to recruit Joe Foster in New Hampshire, Justin Alfond in Maine, Jamie Raskin in Maryland, John Yarmuth in Kentucky, Jake Auchincloss in Massachusetts, and Jacob Frey in Minnesota for future gubernatorial elections.

Call it the JPAC

We should also recruit Jason Kander in Missouri, John Wertheim in New Mexico, and Jonathan Rothschild in Arizona. And yes, I found these names using Wikipedia.

In the meantime, let’s try encouraging Josh Mandelbaum to run for governor of Iowa after he gets elected mayor of Des Moines.

[wbrocks67]

This kind of has shades of PA-GOV in the sense that Mastriano was also polling not terribly in the very beginning when most of the general electorate did not know how crazy he was. Once they did though... we saw what happened. Obviously Stein won't win by 15, but I imagine Stein is a strong enough candidate to pull that Shapiro playbook and make sure the GE knows how batsh*t Robinson actually is. At this point, not a NC-ian, but I imagine most regular people are not aware of all the stuff he has said.

[Sir Mohamed]

This kind of has shades of PA-GOV in the sense that Mastriano was also polling not terribly in the very beginning when most of the general electorate did not know how crazy he was. Once they did though... we saw what happened. Obviously Stein won't win by 15, but I imagine Stein is a strong enough candidate to pull that Shapiro playbook and make sure the GE knows how batsh*t Robinson actually is. At this point, not a NC-ian, but I imagine most regular people are not aware of all the stuff he has said.

Agreed. I would expect Stein to win by a similar margin than Cooper did. Possibly close to the maximum in NC.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This kind of has shades of PA-GOV in the sense that Mastriano was also polling not terribly in the very beginning when most of the general electorate did not know how crazy he was. Once they did though... we saw what happened. Obviously Stein won't win by 15, but I imagine Stein is a strong enough candidate to pull that Shapiro playbook and make sure the GE knows how batsh*t Robinson actually is. At this point, not a NC-ian, but I imagine most regular people are not aware of all the stuff he has said.

Agreed. I would expect Stein to win by a similar margin than Cooper did. Possibly close to the maximum in NC.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Stein outruns Cooper a few points. I could easily see Stein outrunning Cooper in places like Gaston, Union, Johnston, Alamance, maybe even Brunswick and Henderson. Similar to how Shapiro was able to get impressive numbers in places like York, Washington.

[Sir Mohamed]

This kind of has shades of PA-GOV in the sense that Mastriano was also polling not terribly in the very beginning when most of the general electorate did not know how crazy he was. Once they did though... we saw what happened. Obviously Stein won't win by 15, but I imagine Stein is a strong enough candidate to pull that Shapiro playbook and make sure the GE knows how batsh*t Robinson actually is. At this point, not a NC-ian, but I imagine most regular people are not aware of all the stuff he has said.

Agreed. I would expect Stein to win by a similar margin than Cooper did. Possibly close to the maximum in NC.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Stein outruns Cooper a few points. I could easily see Stein outrunning Cooper in places like Gaston, Union, Johnston, Alamance, maybe even Brunswick and Henderson. Similar to how Shapiro was able to get impressive numbers in places like York, Washington.

NC is a far less elastic state than PA though. Even the worst candidate would probably not fall below 45% of the vote.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This kind of has shades of PA-GOV in the sense that Mastriano was also polling not terribly in the very beginning when most of the general electorate did not know how crazy he was. Once they did though... we saw what happened. Obviously Stein won't win by 15, but I imagine Stein is a strong enough candidate to pull that Shapiro playbook and make sure the GE knows how batsh*t Robinson actually is. At this point, not a NC-ian, but I imagine most regular people are not aware of all the stuff he has said.

Agreed. I would expect Stein to win by a similar margin than Cooper did. Possibly close to the maximum in NC.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Stein outruns Cooper a few points. I could easily see Stein outrunning Cooper in places like Gaston, Union, Johnston, Alamance, maybe even Brunswick and Henderson. Similar to how Shapiro was able to get impressive numbers in places like York, Washington.

NC is a far less elastic state than PA though. Even the worst candidate would probably not fall below 45% of the vote.

You’re right. I’m not saying Stein would win with 60%, but 53-55% isn’t out of the question.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/maryfrancesmcg/status/1674387825813336064?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

[SevenEleven]

What’s the Cheri Berry effect?

Removes paralysis.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If we're still going with the Pennsylvania 2022 redux narrative, it should be noted that race featured a small swing to the right. I think we should expect the same thing by North Carolina standards is Stein wins. He isn't a popular incumbent like Cooper was, and that four point win for him in 2020 was basically a landslide for a Democrat in the state. I think it's overly optimistic to think that Stein replicates that margin. If Stein wins it likely won't be by more than two points. I wouldn't mind being wrong, but that's my impression so far.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1676612484570988547

[wbrocks67]

If we're still going with the Pennsylvania 2022 redux narrative, it should be noted that race featured a small swing to the right. I think we should expect the same thing by North Carolina standards is Stein wins. He isn't a popular incumbent like Cooper was, and that four point win for him in 2020 was basically a landslide for a Democrat in the state. I think it's overly optimistic to think that Stein replicates that margin. If Stein wins it likely won't be by more than two points. I wouldn't mind being wrong, but that's my impression so far.

Not sure why you would even bother comparing Shapiro's win to Wolf's considering the dynamics were completely different (blue wave year vs. red wave year) and the fact that Wolf was also an incumbent.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1676612484570988547

The Republican nominee for governor everyone

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1676612484570988547

The Republican nominee for governor everyone

When people tell you who they are...

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1676612484570988547

Watch how it still comes down to 51.1 Stein – 48.9 Robinson

[SnowLabrador]

This doesn't matter, electorally speaking.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/markrobinsonNC/status/1676668902955274244?s=20