NC GOV 2024 - Stein (D) vs Robinson (R)

[Spectator]

And Robinson is dominating the primary polls so far it seems, which is brutal for Republicans.

For all the crap that online lefties often get I'd argue that it's actually the online right-wing social media warriors who have benefited Democrats electorally than vice versa.

Any reason to think Robinson's support is primarily drawn from online stuff? I don't really see much about him there. Yeah, he became prominent for a video that went viral, but he's also the sitting lieutenant governor and none of the other candidates in these hypothetical polls seem particularly strong. Might be reasonable to assume that he would lead either way.

The kind of stuff your crazy conspiratorial Facebook far fighters are known for is the same stuff that Robinson spews

[Sir Mohamed]

I can see this race becoming like PA-Gov 2022. Probably not anywhere near the same margin; but to where Stein does considerably better than Biden, and wins somewhere around high single digits. Robinson is just as insane as Mastriano was.

It's possible, though I could foresee a scenario in which polls show Stein leading big just before at the end he barely squeaks by and wins an underwhelming 50-48%. NC is a very polarized state.

[Sol]

And Robinson is dominating the primary polls so far it seems, which is brutal for Republicans.

For all the crap that online lefties often get I'd argue that it's actually the online right-wing social media warriors who have benefited Democrats electorally than vice versa.

Any reason to think Robinson's support is primarily drawn from online stuff? I don't really see much about him there. Yeah, he became prominent for a video that went viral, but he's also the sitting lieutenant governor and none of the other candidates in these hypothetical polls seem particularly strong. Might be reasonable to assume that he would lead either way.

Yeah something that people outside NC are missing is that although Robinson is indeed quite inflammatory and extreme, he's absolutely the preferred candidate of the Republican establishment. They've been coordinating quite a bit with him; that's why he gave the State of the state response earlier this month, when normally it would have been someone in NCGA leadership.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I hope you are all correct that this could be a Pennsylvania 2022 redux, but I don't think Robinson should be counted out. North Carolina and Pennsylvania are very different states.

[Spectator]

I hope you are all correct that this could be a Pennsylvania 2022 redux, but I don't think Robinson should be counted out. North Carolina and Pennsylvania are very different states.

It is very polarized, but the D floor seems to be about 46% in presidential years (what the worst-performing statewide Democrat got in 2020). That is a solid enough floor for me to make me comfortable with predicting a Stein victory against Robinson, even if the margin may not necessarily be impressive at face value. Remember, Cooper’s 4.5% win in 2020 is basically a landslide in North Carolina.

I don’t think Trump will win North Carolina again in a rematch, but I’m much less confident in that prediction than I am a gubernatorial race between Stein and Robinson.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Dale Folwell (State Treasurer) announced for Governor today.

https://journalnow.com/news/local/dale-folwell-governor-mark-robinsonforsyth-county-republican-party-convention/article_7905d408-cb0d-11ed-84ba-27ed0846f91d.html

Separately, State Auditor Beth Wood (D) plead guilty today to a hit and run charge stemming from an accident in December in which she crashed into a parked car.

https://journalnow.com/news/state-and-regional/north-carolina-auditor-pleads-guilty-to-hit-and-run/article_3ded2efc-0285-5e4f-a058-b0b155383985.html#tracking-source=mp-in-article

[Sol]

I would actually be pretty concerned if Folwell were the nominee; he's widely respected across the state as a pretty effective treasurer.

Thankfully he's not likely to win against Robinson.

[Spectator]

Mastriano 2.0 set to announce tomorrow:

https://19thnews.org/2023/04/north-carolina-governors-race-2024-abortion-lgbtq-rights/

[President Johnson]

Mastriano 2.0 set to announce tomorrow:

https://19thnews.org/2023/04/north-carolina-governors-race-2024-abortion-lgbtq-rights/

Trump endorsement imminent, I guess? Not that he needs it, his nomination is assured. He's where the pulse of the base is.

[GALeftist]

This race is an easy Lean D, might move to Likely by the election.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I want the 2028 ticket to be Shapiro/Stein for maximum chaos and confusion

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I want the 2028 ticket to be Shapiro/Stein for maximum chaos and confusion

It's likely Harris and Wes Moore or Gilchrist depending on Gilchrist run for MI Gov due to Harris being Veep

Harris has been leading every primary poll to Newsom

[Suburbia]

This race is an easy Lean D, might move to Likely by the election.

Tilt D/Tossup

Robinson is no joke, the man can give a speech and he can rouse people. I am not a rightwinger, and I am roused by his oratory.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Robinson is the Republican Fetterman but coherent.
Big dood = win

[Duke of York]

Robinson is the Republican Fetterman but coherent.
Big dood = win

You therefore think he will be next governor?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Robinson is the Republican Fetterman but coherent.
Big dood = win

You are the first person I’ve heard to describe Robinson as coherent

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Robinson is the Republican Fetterman but coherent.
Big dood = win

He won in 2020 because the LT does absolutely nothing and no one cares about it. He has no where to hide now in a much more important race

[Pollster]

If the sitting attorney general who was elected alongside Cooper in two Presidential years during which Trump simultaneously won the state cannot beat this guy then the state party has far, far bigger problems to contend with.

[wbrocks67]

Robinson is the Republican Fetterman but coherent.
Big dood = win

lol what?

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Robinson is the Republican Fetterman but coherent.
Big dood = win

You are the first person I’ve heard to describe Robinson as coherent

This Is What People In North Carolina Actually Believe

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Anyone comparing him to Mastriano is a joke.
His recent ad is one of the best political ads this century. No talk of Trump or even any culture war issues. Just his inspirational background, a positive message and talk about how NC needs fixing. Interestingly criticism of NAFTA and he mentioned how he wants to get jobs back, so a populist message.
He's definitely one of the best public speakers out of politicians today, even if you disagree with him you have to acknowledge his ability to talk to people is unmatched.

[Sol]

It's not fair to describe Robinson as incoherent. If you're looking for a 2022 parallel, Robinson is Kari Lake, not Doug Mastriano -- highly extreme to the point of being too far from the state and filled with scandal, but fairly charismatic and a good public speaker. Robinson became the Lt. Governor nominee because he went viral in right-wing circles for his speech at the Greensboro City Council.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone comparing him to Mastriano is a joke.
His recent ad is one of the best political ads this century. No talk of Trump or even any culture war issues. Just his inspirational background, a positive message and talk about how NC needs fixing. Interestingly criticism of NAFTA and he mentioned how he wants to get jobs back, so a populist message.
He's definitely one of the best public speakers out of politicians today, even if you disagree with him you have to acknowledge his ability to talk to people is unmatched.

https://twitter.com/NikkiBarnesFL/status/1650252653107064835

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It's not fair to describe Robinson as incoherent. If you're looking for a 2022 parallel, Robinson is Kari Lake, not Doug Mastriano -- highly extreme to the point of being too far from the state and filled with scandal, but fairly charismatic and a good public speaker. Robinson became the Lt. Governor nominee because he went viral in right-wing circles for his speech at the Greensboro City Council.

This is a good comparison
Anyway, Robinson will get a lot closer than Mastriano but I just can't see him winning again, especially for a higher profile office

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It's not fair to describe Robinson as incoherent. If you're looking for a 2022 parallel, Robinson is Kari Lake, not Doug Mastriano -- highly extreme to the point of being too far from the state and filled with scandal, but fairly charismatic and a good public speaker. Robinson became the Lt. Governor nominee because he went viral in right-wing circles for his speech at the Greensboro City Council.

I think Kari Lake is a good comparison to Robinson, except Robinson isn't nearly as obsessed over the 2020 election. Also NC Is more conservative than AZ so I think he wins.