NC GOV 2024 - Stein (D) vs Robinson (R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not getting excited until we see some polls from KY, MS and LA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I won't make the same mistake as last time Donate a yr prior to Eday I donated to Tim Ryan not like yrs past but still, I didn't say I wasn't gonna donate with this document I am gonna wait for a poll, look what happened to Ryan and Bullock and Joe Kennedy and Strickland all 4 got huge fundraiser advantage early and lost Ryan was bragging about how much money he had over Vance until McConnell dumped all those millions and we know what Center Street Pac polls color they polls to get donations 55)33 Fetterman and Kelly

They haven't polled LA, MS and KY and Beshear is embroidery in scandal


They said on OH wait for a  MXDX poll otherwise it Leans R they were right, just like for Brown we gotta wait for polls, just like unless Marist or PPP has Ds down in WI, MI and PA leans D

That's why no polls from KY, MS or LA they Lean R until a poll comes out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beasley isn't running for anything

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beasley was too liberal for NC if Jeff Jackson ran he could of won the Ds left Ryan, Beasley and Demings hanging and went all in on Barnes like TMac donated heavily to Barnes he was a loser too

Why do you think Kunce, Presley and Bernhardt and Andy Beshear can buck the trend they are WC Ds

I am not sold on these Southern States going R because the RS running arent Ron DeSantis or Greg Abbott or Chris Sununu or Kemp or DeWine

Users are so predictable that these States are solid R if so why did Andy Beshear win in 2019 and the compiled map was wrong too just like KS Gov states go to their party trend but not ALL THE TIME because why it's urban Poverty blks and poor Latinos have to live off Walmart salaries in the S and N and poor whites that vote D

If we win OH, MT, WV and MO and Gallego win that's a Filibuster proof Trifecta and Reparations not tax the poor tax the wealthy , CA is giving reparations due to Athletes hockey, baseball and basketball players pay high property taxes, some users think for some reason high taxes hurt poor no we pay 15 percent our SSA taxes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's okay to say D's aren't favored but there is always a possibility of an upset if DeWine didn't win by 25 Ryan would have won but users discount D's chances in red states but RS can take Blue states is silly KS Gov 2018/22 and KY 2019

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Tossup not Lean D as we know already NC polls are always too D friendly like with Cunningham and Beasley

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stein will overperform Biden by 5 pts just like Cooper did in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt Stein regardless

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, this could easily be another PA Gov, in which candidate quality turns a swing state race into a landslide.

Landslide relative to the state though. I doubt it ends up being in double digits. A 52-46% wouldn't be out of question though and for sure some kind of landslide by NC standards. Especially if the race for POTUS is decided by a small margin in one way or the other.

It's a 538 Eday not a 303 map and we can win MS Gov not just KY Gov Presley is down only 4 with 6 percent blk

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC is a battleground

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SC is a battleground it has never gone first in a Prez primary and has 26 percent BLK, more blks come out in a Prez race than midterm, SC and NC were flirting with D's Joe Cunningham was down 60/40 until Eday he was down 49/41 at some pt in the campaign and some polls had it within 5

KS is a battleground if Kunce comes within 5 pts like Kander did due to proximity to Kansas City it will flip

The only states I can see staying R is IA, IN, FL and MO at Prez race what is a battleground state not defined by WASP because Dakotas and UT are safe R but by blks, we can win TX

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I want the 2028 ticket to be Shapiro/Stein for maximum chaos and confusion

It's likely Harris and Wes Moore or Gilchrist depending on Gilchrist run for MI Gov due to Harris being Veep

Harris has been leading every primary poll to Newsom

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since Presley is tied and I already know he will be Gov, Josh Stein and Joyce Craig are gonna be Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Eday is in 24 not 23 I am not worried until we get results from KY and MS Robinson has the same narrow 3 pt leads as Reeves and blks can make up 5 percentage pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

3 pts isn't that much difference it's different than blue states of course but 24 is different than any other Eday it's out Trump behind bars permanently

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The race is very close like MS and KY G between Stein and Robinson

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Robinson has a narrow advantage as Stuart Rothenberg NC, TX and FL are leaning R, last several polls had Trump and Robinson up 3 it's a 303 map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Endorse

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think this will move the needle much in the primary. Tillis is basically persona non grata with the GOP base in North Carolina now, and I expect him to retire after two terms like Pat Toomey did. Unlike Toomey, he'll almost certainly be replaced by another Republican in 2026.

It won't be a Trump Prez

Depends on who's president. If it's Trump I expect the seat to flip.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Robinson is up 2 points in a Cygnal Poll 40-38.

That's a LOT of undecided voters for both sides.  The right 3rd party candidate could have won this race.

The polls have been all over the place