NC GOV 2024 - Stein (D) vs Robinson (R)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It's not fair to describe Robinson as incoherent. If you're looking for a 2022 parallel, Robinson is Kari Lake, not Doug Mastriano -- highly extreme to the point of being too far from the state and filled with scandal, but fairly charismatic and a good public speaker. Robinson became the Lt. Governor nominee because he went viral in right-wing circles for his speech at the Greensboro City Council.

I think Kari Lake is a good comparison to Robinson, except Robinson isn't nearly as obsessed over the 2020 election. Also NC Is more conservative than AZ so I think he wins.

Robinson has enough other problems that Lake didn't have. For one he's more ideologically extreme than Lake on many issues. Republicans are much better off with Folwell

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It's not fair to describe Robinson as incoherent. If you're looking for a 2022 parallel, Robinson is Kari Lake, not Doug Mastriano -- highly extreme to the point of being too far from the state and filled with scandal, but fairly charismatic and a good public speaker. Robinson became the Lt. Governor nominee because he went viral in right-wing circles for his speech at the Greensboro City Council.

I think Kari Lake is a good comparison to Robinson, except Robinson isn't nearly as obsessed over the 2020 election. Also NC Is more conservative than AZ so I think he wins.

Robinson has enough other problems that Lake didn't have. For one he's more ideologically extreme than Lake on many issues. Republicans are much better off with Folwell

I think Robinson doesn't come off as extreme though. He's a likeable character and is good at speaking (he also has energy unlike Folwell).

[Sir Mohamed]

Anyone comparing him to Mastriano is a joke.
His recent ad is one of the best political ads this century. No talk of Trump or even any culture war issues. Just his inspirational background, a positive message and talk about how NC needs fixing. Interestingly criticism of NAFTA and he mentioned how he wants to get jobs back, so a populist message.
He's definitely one of the best public speakers out of politicians today, even if you disagree with him you have to acknowledge his ability to talk to people is unmatched.

https://twitter.com/NikkiBarnesFL/status/1650252653107064835

What? That's.... a take. I'm sure he'll perform well among AAs with that.

[Spectator]

It's not fair to describe Robinson as incoherent. If you're looking for a 2022 parallel, Robinson is Kari Lake, not Doug Mastriano -- highly extreme to the point of being too far from the state and filled with scandal, but fairly charismatic and a good public speaker. Robinson became the Lt. Governor nominee because he went viral in right-wing circles for his speech at the Greensboro City Council.

I think Kari Lake is a good comparison to Robinson, except Robinson isn't nearly as obsessed over the 2020 election. Also NC Is more conservative than AZ so I think he wins.

You know who else was a statewide elected official? Kris Kobach. He lost by 5 points in 2018 after winning his Secretary of State race in 2014 by 19 points.

Downballot statewide performance isn’t always translatable to Senate or gubernatorial races. Did anyone think Shapiro was going to win by 15 points in 2022 after winning the AG race in 2020 by only 4 points?

You’re correct that North Carolina isn’t Pennsylvania. That doesn’t mean that Robinson can afford defections in a state that will likely be a tossup at the presidential level. The margin might not be big, but I have a hard time seeing how Robinson wins.

I think Stein ends up winning by around 5-7 points. He probably drags Jeff Jackson across in the AG race as a result.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Y’all all are taking this man too seriously and giving him far too much credit

On Facebook he’s repeatedly called Michelle Obama a man, Hollywood satanic, black democrats slaves, and praised the confederate flag.

He’s also said Antifa wants to beat you, told women that “it’s not their body anymore” when they’re pregnant, and called gay people “devil worshiping child molestors”.

He is more right wing delusional than anyone republicans have nominated for any major state wide office yet

[Spectator]

Y’all all are taking this man too seriously and giving him far too much credit

On Facebook he’s repeatedly called Michelle Obama a man, Hollywood satanic, black democrats slaves, and praised the confederate flag.

He’s also said Antifa wants to beat you, told women that “it’s not their body anymore” when they’re pregnant, and called gay people “devil worshiping child molestors”.

He is more right wing delusional than anyone republicans have nominated for any major state wide office yet

Kari Lake he is not. She at least passed for attractive and was effective at driving the narrative. The narrative here will be solely on his outlandish comments that make Trump look sane by comparison.

[Sol]

Yeah ftr I wasn't arguing that Robinson was favored (far from it!)--just pushing back against folks running down his political skills, which are enough for him to have essentially won the Republican shadow primary.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Yeah ftr I wasn't arguing that Robinson was favored (far from it!)--just pushing back against folks running down his political skills, which are enough for him to have essentially won the Republican shadow primary.

That doesn’t take skill so much as being bat sh*t crazy. Which Robinson has in spades

[Horus]

Anyone comparing him to Mastriano is a joke.
His recent ad is one of the best political ads this century. No talk of Trump or even any culture war issues. Just his inspirational background, a positive message and talk about how NC needs fixing. Interestingly criticism of NAFTA and he mentioned how he wants to get jobs back, so a populist message.
He's definitely one of the best public speakers out of politicians today, even if you disagree with him you have to acknowledge his ability to talk to people is unmatched.

https://twitter.com/NikkiBarnesFL/status/1650252653107064835

Will he do better or worse than Herschel with Black voters? Herschel got maybe 5% in the runoff.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Anyone comparing him to Mastriano is a joke.
His recent ad is one of the best political ads this century. No talk of Trump or even any culture war issues. Just his inspirational background, a positive message and talk about how NC needs fixing. Interestingly criticism of NAFTA and he mentioned how he wants to get jobs back, so a populist message.
He's definitely one of the best public speakers out of politicians today, even if you disagree with him you have to acknowledge his ability to talk to people is unmatched.

https://twitter.com/NikkiBarnesFL/status/1650252653107064835

Will he do better or worse than Herschel with Black voters? Herschel got maybe 5% in the runoff.

I’d say maybe slightly better. I haven’t run the numbers but I’d assume NC has a larger rural black population, which tends to be more conservative (but also tends to not turnout as much) so who knows

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Robinson is much closer to Mastriano than Lake.  Even if he isn’t quite at Mastriano levels, he’s pretty d*** close

[President Johnson]

Robinson is much closer to Mastriano than Lake.  Even if he isn’t quite at Mastriano levels, he’s pretty d*** close

Yeah, he's absolutely obnoxious and has been for many years. Didn't he start his political career with promoting the absurd conspiracy Michelle Obama was actually a man? Black reparations for whites is one of the most pathetic and ridiculous proposals I've ever heard. How much of the black vote is he going to get this level of nonsense?

[Duke of York]

Anyone comparing him to Mastriano is a joke.
His recent ad is one of the best political ads this century. No talk of Trump or even any culture war issues. Just his inspirational background, a positive message and talk about how NC needs fixing. Interestingly criticism of NAFTA and he mentioned how he wants to get jobs back, so a populist message.
He's definitely one of the best public speakers out of politicians today, even if you disagree with him you have to acknowledge his ability to talk to people is unmatched.

https://twitter.com/NikkiBarnesFL/status/1650252653107064835

Wow. Im not sure how to even respond to this. truly one of the most insane things i've heard.

[Roll Roons]

Hmm: https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1653458051528048641

[Spectator]

I guess he’ll have his Congressional pension by then, so why not? It’d be weird to have a Congressman vs. Congressman race for state Attorney General, but I guess AG is arguably the best perch from which to launch a gubernatorial bid, and second best to launch a Senate bid (behind only governor).

I think Jeff Jackson would probably win that matchup if Stein is beating Robinson in the gubernatorial race.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Hmm: https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1653458051528048641

Strong support.

[Storr]

How insane do you have to be to use the Kent State Shootings as example of an appropriate use of force against protestors? [We already knew Robinson was a nutjob, but still.]

"“The shooting that happened at Kent State now, I don’t know how much you know about that shooting at Kent State, but people have got to understand it,” Robinson said on one podcast in 2018. “We have the constitutional right to peacefully assemble. Now peacefully assemble does not mean you could throw bricks at National Guardsmen, bust out windows and block traffic. Once you cross that line into violence and the disruption of public transportation and public services and start blocking the entrances of a federal building, you are no longer a protestor.”

“You are are now a criminal and you need to be dealt with like a criminal,”..."

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1654214338154995713?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

Robinson makes Mastriano look moderate. Unfortunately I'm less confident that North Carolina will reject him. It all depends on the top of the ticket...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

With Robinson being the nominee I’m going to say NC 2024 is more likely to go democrat then Virginia 2025

[TDAS04]

I predict NC will go D by 4% in the gubernatorial election, and by 1% at the presidential level.

[NewYorkExpress]

I predict NC will go D by 4% in the gubernatorial election, and by 1% at the presidential level.

I still think the Republican nominee will carry North Carolina, but unless Robinson actually loses the primary, I think I've seen enough to say Stein will probably win regardless.

[Galeel]

Robinson makes Mastriano look moderate. Unfortunately I'm less confident that North Carolina will reject him. It all depends on the top of the ticket...

They bucked the top of the ticket the last 2 times.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Robinson makes Mastriano look moderate. Unfortunately I'm less confident that North Carolina will reject him. It all depends on the top of the ticket...

They bucked the top of the ticket the last 2 times.

It's SnowLabrador. Trump could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and he would say the swing among the murderer demographic would carry him over the finish line.

[S019]

I'm going to say this is a Tossup and Stein wins by like 2 in the end.

[Sir Mohamed]

I predict NC will go D by 4% in the gubernatorial election, and by 1% at the presidential level.

I still think the Republican nominee will carry North Carolina, but unless Robinson actually loses the primary, I think I've seen enough to say Stein will probably win regardless.

I'd consider NC-prez a pure tossup, though a result in which Robinson is rejected by 4 pts. while Trump still wins NC by 1 pt. or less wouldn't be a huge surprise. So basically a repeat of 2020.