NC GOV 2024 - Stein (D) vs Robinson (R)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1615700196972716032
https://twitter.com/JoshStein_/status/1615698844892766208

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Endorsed! Governor Josh supremacy

[Pollster]

Run Jared Moskowitz and Jacky Rosen next cycle and we'll have a nice little Jewish Governors of swing states caucus going.

[Sir Mohamed]

Endorsed, I guess?

Is it just me or have candidates begun to announce so early just in recent cycles? I feel it's a bit premature.

[GALeftist]

Tilt D vs. Robinson I'd guess

[NewYorkExpress]

This one probably depends on who wins North Carolina at the Presidential level. Since I think that will be the Republican nominee, this is no better than a tossup for Democrats, though they did get their strongest candidate by a mile here.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tilt D vs. Robinson I'd guess

I sure hope so.

[Hope For A New Era]

Jewish Democrat whose first name begins with J in race = Titanium D

Tossup -> Tilt D

[Zedonathin2020]

Tossup. The Democrat (more than likely Stein) could however have a better chance of winning if Biden wins the state in the Presidential race, as I currently predict he will.

[TML]

This one probably depends on who wins North Carolina at the Presidential level. Since I think that will be the Republican nominee, this is no better than a tossup for Democrats, though they did get their strongest candidate by a mile here.

Trump's coattails weren't enough to carry Pat McCrory or Dan Forest over the finish line.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not getting excited until we see some polls from KY, MS and LA

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Endorsed, I guess?

Is it just me or have candidates begun to announce so early just in recent cycles? I feel it's a bit premature.

It has to be for fundraising reasons, or something.

[JMT]

Endorsed, I guess?

Is it just me or have candidates begun to announce so early just in recent cycles? I feel it's a bit premature.

It has to be for fundraising reasons, or something.

Yeah, I think fundraising plays a part in it. But I also think the early announcement is an attempt to clear the primary. He entered the race before anyone else and came in with a lot of endorsements, including from potential rivals (e.g., Jeff Jackson, Robert Reives etc.). I wouldn’t be surprised if Stein runs for the Democratic nomination unopposed (or with just nominal opposition).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I won't make the same mistake as last time Donate a yr prior to Eday I donated to Tim Ryan not like yrs past but still, I didn't say I wasn't gonna donate with this document I am gonna wait for a poll, look what happened to Ryan and Bullock and Joe Kennedy and Strickland all 4 got huge fundraiser advantage early and lost Ryan was bragging about how much money he had over Vance until McConnell dumped all those millions and we know what Center Street Pac polls color they polls to get donations 55)33 Fetterman and Kelly

They haven't polled LA, MS and KY and Beshear is embroidery in scandal


They said on OH wait for a  MXDX poll otherwise it Leans R they were right, just like for Brown we gotta wait for polls, just like unless Marist or PPP has Ds down in WI, MI and PA leans D

That's why no polls from KY, MS or LA they Lean R until a poll comes out

[Spectator]

Endorsed, I guess?

Is it just me or have candidates begun to announce so early just in recent cycles? I feel it's a bit premature.

It has to be for fundraising reasons, or something.

Yeah, I think fundraising plays a part in it. But I also think the early announcement is an attempt to clear the primary. He entered the race before anyone else and came in with a lot of endorsements, including from potential rivals (e.g., Jeff Jackson, Robert Reives etc.). I wouldn’t be surprised if Stein runs for the Democratic nomination unopposed (or with just nominal opposition).

Oh really, Jackson endorsed him? That was probably his most likely opponent. I wonder if that means Jackson has his eye on Attorney General when his seat is inevitably drawn out from under him.

[JMT]

Endorsed, I guess?

Is it just me or have candidates begun to announce so early just in recent cycles? I feel it's a bit premature.

It has to be for fundraising reasons, or something.

Yeah, I think fundraising plays a part in it. But I also think the early announcement is an attempt to clear the primary. He entered the race before anyone else and came in with a lot of endorsements, including from potential rivals (e.g., Jeff Jackson, Robert Reives etc.). I wouldn’t be surprised if Stein runs for the Democratic nomination unopposed (or with just nominal opposition).

Oh really, Jackson endorsed him? That was probably his most likely opponent. I wonder if that means Jackson has his eye on Attorney General when his seat is inevitably drawn out from under him.

Yup! Jackson and Wiley Nickel endorsed Stein per the article below. If Republicans dismantle his seat, my guess is Jackson goes for Attorney General. And maybe if Nickel’s seat is gone, Nickel could run for Lieutenant Governor?

https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/politics/josh-stein-north-carolina-governor-candidacy-election-2024/275-edfb5af2-1c9a-443e-80d1-7e9f959fff9b

[Spectator]

This one probably depends on who wins North Carolina at the Presidential level. Since I think that will be the Republican nominee, this is no better than a tossup for Democrats, though they did get their strongest candidate by a mile here.

Trump's coattails weren't enough to carry Pat McCrory or Dan Forest over the finish line.

Or Josh Stein's own opponents. Stein will probably do better than Biden, even if it's marginally, and that matters in a state like NC.

[The Arizonan]

Run Jared Moskowitz and Jacky Rosen next cycle and we'll have a nice little Jewish Governors of swing states caucus going.

I seriously doubt that Jacky Rosen is going to run for Governor of Nevada.

[MargieCat]

Endorsed, I guess?

Is it just me or have candidates begun to announce so early just in recent cycles? I feel it's a bit premature.

It has to be for fundraising reasons, or something.

Yeah, I think fundraising plays a part in it. But I also think the early announcement is an attempt to clear the primary. He entered the race before anyone else and came in with a lot of endorsements, including from potential rivals (e.g., Jeff Jackson, Robert Reives etc.). I wouldn’t be surprised if Stein runs for the Democratic nomination unopposed (or with just nominal opposition).

Oh really, Jackson endorsed him? That was probably his most likely opponent. I wonder if that means Jackson has his eye on Attorney General when his seat is inevitably drawn out from under him.

Yup! Jackson and Wiley Nickel endorsed Stein per the article below. If Republicans dismantle his seat, my guess is Jackson goes for Attorney General. And maybe if Nickel’s seat is gone, Nickel could run for Lieutenant Governor?

https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/politics/josh-stein-north-carolina-governor-candidacy-election-2024/275-edfb5af2-1c9a-443e-80d1-7e9f959fff9b

I wonder if Republicans in the legislature strategically leave Jackson's seat intact to try and prevent him from making a statewide run.

I'm not a gerrymandering expert but, but it seems like it would be a dummymander to try and only get one blue seat out of Mecklenberg.

There are other Democrats in the NC congressional delegation that would be easier to defeat in a statewide race.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tilt D.

[Spectator]

Endorsed, I guess?

Is it just me or have candidates begun to announce so early just in recent cycles? I feel it's a bit premature.

It has to be for fundraising reasons, or something.

Yeah, I think fundraising plays a part in it. But I also think the early announcement is an attempt to clear the primary. He entered the race before anyone else and came in with a lot of endorsements, including from potential rivals (e.g., Jeff Jackson, Robert Reives etc.). I wouldn’t be surprised if Stein runs for the Democratic nomination unopposed (or with just nominal opposition).

Oh really, Jackson endorsed him? That was probably his most likely opponent. I wonder if that means Jackson has his eye on Attorney General when his seat is inevitably drawn out from under him.

Yup! Jackson and Wiley Nickel endorsed Stein per the article below. If Republicans dismantle his seat, my guess is Jackson goes for Attorney General. And maybe if Nickel’s seat is gone, Nickel could run for Lieutenant Governor?

https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/politics/josh-stein-north-carolina-governor-candidacy-election-2024/275-edfb5af2-1c9a-443e-80d1-7e9f959fff9b

I wonder if Republicans in the legislature strategically leave Jackson's seat intact to try and prevent him from making a statewide run.

I'm not a gerrymandering expert but, but it seems like it would be a dummymander to try and only get one blue seat out of Mecklenberg.

There are other Democrats in the NC congressional delegation that would be easier to defeat in a statewide race.

I doubt it. Mecklenburg's remainders can be split up efficiently enough to leave Jackson without a winnable seat.

[President Johnson]

I actually hope(d) Cheri Beasley would get another chance for higher office. She fought a good fight last year and would truly represent something new.

[The Arizonan]

Jewish Democrat whose first name begins with J in race = Titanium D

Tossup -> Tilt D

Correct. There isn’t any guarantee that Josh Stein is going to win this election even under ideal conditions.

[Spectator]

I actually hope(d) Cheri Beasley would get another chance for higher office. She fought a good fight last year and would truly represent something new.

Why should that come at the expense of Josh Stein when he won his last two elections though?  Just food for thought. Is it because he's white?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Don't underestimate the willingness of NC to split tickets for Governor. Maybe not as much as PA last time, but it is significant enough that the normal GOP Prez win in NC these days, is not enough to ensure victory for Governor, especially if the opponent is Robinson.