2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th
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  2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th
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Author Topic: 2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th  (Read 33501 times)
CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #100 on: March 26, 2023, 10:24:56 AM »

How many are left in the ROC diplomatic camp now?
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jaichind
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« Reply #101 on: March 26, 2023, 02:32:51 PM »

How many are left in the ROC diplomatic camp now?

13

It did not have to be like this.  There was a de facto diplomatic truce between PRC and ROC from 2008-2016 based on the "92 Consensus" which was "we agree that there is One China but will agree to disagree on who that One China is".  This opened the way for the PRC to internally justify not going after states that recognized ROC on the premise that "those are minor states anyway and in a virtual sense the Taipei regime can represent China so we are indirectly represented in those minor states."
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jaichind
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« Reply #102 on: March 26, 2023, 05:20:43 PM »

Today former KMT Prez Ma starts his Mainland China trip and in two days DPP Prez Tsai will start her trip to the USA in the battle of dueling trips between Ma and Tsai.
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jaichind
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« Reply #103 on: March 27, 2023, 10:58:37 AM »

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-honduras-taiwan-diplomatic-ties-us-tensions-rcna76697

"Honduras forms diplomatic ties with China after breaking relations with Taiwan"

Despite days of USA lobbying on behalf of ROC Honduras drops ROC for PRC.

It seems PRC timed this to avoid having this take place while Ma is visiting the Mainland.  The original plan was to have this take place while DPP Prez Tsai is in the USA to embarrasses her but the duplication of Ma and Tsai trips made PRC shift the timing to before both trips.
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jaichind
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« Reply #104 on: March 27, 2023, 11:09:00 AM »

Number of diplomatic state that recognize ROC by Prez.

As of 2000 it was 29 and now it is down to 13

                          Gain         Loss            Total
DPP Prez Chen        3             9                23
KMT Prez Ma                          1*              22
DPP Prez Tsai                         9                13

* This is The Gambia which broke off relations with ROC on its own without PRC being involved.  As part of the de facto KMT Prez Ma PRC-ROC diplomatic truce the PRC refused to from formal relations with The Gambia which persist to this day.  The PRC position seems to be that The Gambia broke off relations with ROC during the 2008-2016 de facto diplomatic true era so they did not form formal relations with The Gambia even after DPP Prez Tsai took over which ended the de facto true.   So The Gambia today has neither relations with PRC nor ROC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #105 on: March 27, 2023, 11:12:40 AM »

I suspect Paraguay is next.  Brazil Prez Lula has plans to get PRC involved in a lot of Latin American infrastructure projects many of which involve road and rail in between Latin American countries.  One condition the PRC will have, will of course, that Paraguay  has to switch which I am sure Paraguay will switch.  Paraguay needs the infrastructure that the PRC will be able to build for them.
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jaichind
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« Reply #106 on: March 27, 2023, 11:24:04 AM »

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/foxconn-founder-gou-possible-taiwan-presidential-candidate-visit-us-2023-03-27/

"Foxconn founder Gou, possible Taiwan presidential candidate, to visit US"

Guo will visit USA.  It is clearly a bid to get USA support for his candidacy to help him to get the KMT nomination.  Guo's line will be "I am deep blue but I have good relations with USA and PRC.  I get things done and I can do deals for the betterment of ROC."
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jaichind
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« Reply #107 on: March 27, 2023, 07:05:40 PM »

Former KMT Prez Ma arrives in Mainland China.  At Ma's request, there will be no Ma-Xi meeting but in terms of security measures, the PRC is giving Ma head of state treatment.    BTW, while Ma is the first former ROC Prez to visit the Mainland since 1949 he is not the first ROC Prez to visit the Mainland since 1949.  This is because both DPP Prez Chen and DPP Prez Tsai visited the Mainland before they became ROC Prez.  With Ma's visit, KMT Prez Lee who passed away in 2020 will be the only ROC Prez that has never been to the Mainland as all ROC Prez before Lee was born on the Mainland.

Ma's visit is about duel narratives between the KMT and Tsai's "Two China" "New DPP".  Ma is visiting all the key Mainland locations related to the ROC before 1945.  Tsai's "Two China" "New DPP" defines ROC as a post-1945 entity with no roots on the Mainland.  Ma's visit is about an alternative narrative of ROC having its start in 1911 and that the current ROC has its roots on the Mainland and cannot be cut off from its roots.

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jaichind
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« Reply #108 on: March 29, 2023, 03:51:00 AM »

DPP Prez Tsai left for the USA as a transit point for her Latin America trip.  She will arrive in the USA privately because the USA does not recognize ROC.  It is clear she will meet Speaker McCarthy while she is in LA.  In theory, this will make PRC jump and perhaps would make proactive military moves.  But former KMT Prez Ma being in Mainland China and the need not to embarrass Ma would mean that in reality, the PRC will do nothing.  In many ways, Ma being in Mainland China is shielding DPP Prez from the clear blowback that would have come.  Within the DPP this is mixed news.  There are some factions (some aligned closely with DPP Prez candidate Lai) that feel that an escalation by PRC will help them in the 2024 elections while others (mostly aligned with DPP Prez Tsai) feel that escalation would hurt the DPP in 2024.
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jaichind
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« Reply #109 on: March 29, 2023, 04:29:37 PM »

On his trip to various locations on the Mainland, Ma, as per Chinese tradition, was asked to leave some calligraphy behind associated with his trip.  He is the first ROC politician visiting the Mainland that explicitly uses ROC.  Here is his calligraphy for Mainland Sun Yet Sen Memorial (we on ROC have one in Taipei).

Here he explicitly writes down the date 112 (112th year of ROC) along with 2023 (which is the way the dating methods PRC (the PRC are traitors in this respect to the classical Chinese tradition)).  Here his writing is "Fight for Peace, Revive Chinese civilization" which is a a play on Sun Yet Sen's last spoken words before his death.

The PRC is mostly letting him get away with as to not rock the boat for Ma and for the KMT in the 2024 election
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jaichind
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« Reply #110 on: March 29, 2023, 04:36:34 PM »

The security detail the PRC has sent to protect Ma is from the PRC central security detail group that has its primary mission of protecting Prez/Chairperson Xi and PM Li and a couple of other top dogs in the PRC government.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #111 on: March 29, 2023, 04:44:18 PM »

DPP Prez Tsai's arrival in LA was supposed to be accompanied by a USA State Department APAC press conference that will report on Tsai's visit (as a private citizen.)  It got canceled last minute.  I suspect this has to do with Biden wanting Yellen to visit PRC soon (to get the PRC to buy more treasures or at least not to sell them) and needing this move to show Xi some goodwill.  This is just a guess.  We will see what developed.  If I am right then everyone of political consequences that Tsai will meet in the USA will be from the GOP and none will be from the Democrats.  If so then I suspect my theory is correct and Biden is prioritizing the USA treasury market above everything else in the short run with respect to the PRC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #112 on: April 01, 2023, 07:05:25 AM »

The appearance of ROC flags in pro-Tsai crowds in the USA is symbolic of DPP Tsai's "New DPP" (my terminology) where post-2008 under Tsai DPP focuses on a "Two China" message to deflect concerns on the DPP Taiwan Independence position.  But just like "New Labor", "New DPP" is a palace faction, and the core DPP base never really accepted and only tolerated it for electoral expediency.  DPP Prez candidate Lai's position on "New DPP" would be a good test of how enduring the "New DPP" image is.
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jaichind
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« Reply #113 on: April 02, 2023, 11:26:55 PM »

It seems GOP Speaker McCarthy adheres to "One China" principle and supports "Taiwan is part of China"

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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #114 on: April 03, 2023, 01:08:47 AM »

It seems GOP Speaker McCarthy adheres to "One China" principle and supports "Taiwan is part of China"



Is it possible that we'll see something similar to KMT/DPP where the left circles the wagons around Taiwan while the right becomes more amenable to China?
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jaichind
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« Reply #115 on: April 03, 2023, 06:11:23 AM »

https://www.voanews.com/a/taiwanese-president-tsai-ing-wen-receives-hudson-institute-global-leadership-award/7030097.html

"Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen Receives Hudson Institute Global Leadership Award"

What is not mentioned is that Pompeo was expected to meet Tsai at the Hudson Institute.  But somehow Pompeo is a no-show.

Now there are rumors that McCarthy might not meet Tsai in LA.

It seems the USA is trying to downplay Tsai's visit across the board.  What is a surprise is that the GOP anti-PRC hawks seem to be cooperating with Biden.  Not sure why.  They have no reason to play ball with Biden.
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jaichind
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« Reply #116 on: April 03, 2023, 06:36:59 AM »

https://www.barrons.com/news/guatemala-president-says-taiwan-is-only-and-true-china-during-tsai-visit-f6dc9d09

"Guatemala President Says Taiwan Is 'Only And True China' During Tsai Visit"

Quote
Guatemalan President, Alejandro Giammattei, describes Taiwan as "the only true China"

It seems the Guatemalan President is Deep Blue.
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jaichind
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« Reply #117 on: April 03, 2023, 07:06:18 AM »

In every province former KMT Prez Ma visits he is entertained by the local CCP party secretary (who is the highest leader of any province under PRC control.)  The location Ma is entertained in each province is reserved for the head of the state stature.   In a couple of speeches, Ma publically announces that both Mainland and Taiwan are part of the ROC as per the ROC constitution.  Again, I think the CCP is not too pleased but seems to be eating it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #118 on: April 03, 2023, 07:09:55 AM »



Is it possible that we'll see something similar to KMT/DPP where the left circles the wagons around Taiwan while the right becomes more amenable to China?

I doubt it.  The GOP will double down on its anti-PRC line and will attack the Dems for wasting their time on Russia.  There is a clear elite bipartisan consensus on an anti-PRC line which is certain not to change anytime soon.

McCarthy's map most likely had USA State department guidance that on paper the USA accepts "One China" so it is best not to hand the PRC a talking point by not nominally adhering to it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #119 on: April 03, 2023, 08:02:15 AM »

One thing that is interesting about DPP Prez Tsai's visit to the USA is that the ROC head of the National Security Council 顧立雄 (Wellington Koo) who is an old DPP legal hand did not come with DPP Prez Tsai on her trip.  This is unprecedented as for a few decades now any foreign visit the ROC Prez makes he or she always brings with ROC head of the National Security Council along for the trip to help deal with any foreign crisis that might come up during the trip.

The reason for this seems clear.  There is always a risk that the PRC might take aggressive action during DPP Prez Tsai's trip and if the head of the National Security Council 顧立雄 (Wellington Koo) is with DPP Prez Tsai for this trip then it will fall to DPP VP Lai to handle the situation.  DPP Prez Tsai, it seems, does not want that to take place ergo she left 顧立雄 (Wellington Koo) behind to ensure that he (who is a hardcore Tsai faction member) is the one in charge and not DPP VP and Prez candidate Lai.  Even now there is at a deep level distribute between Tsai and Lai.
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jaichind
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« Reply #120 on: April 03, 2023, 07:12:03 PM »

In an interview TPP leader Ko indicated that the winner of the 2024 Prez election will have a vote share of lower than 40% which implies that the third place candidate will win at least 20%. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #121 on: April 05, 2023, 12:56:33 PM »

Guo throws his hat into the ring for the KMT draft nomination.  He indicated that he is very sorry for leaving the KMT after the 2020 KMT primary and that the defeat of the DPP is his top priority.  He took a long 90-degree bow for 10 seconds to show how sorry he is to the KMT for what he did in 2020.  He said that if Hou polls better than him in the KMT internal polls he will go all out to help Hou win in the general election.  This move significantly lowers any Gou-Ko alliance in 2024.
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jaichind
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« Reply #122 on: April 05, 2023, 03:46:12 PM »

McCarthy meets Tsai in a private meeting.   McCarthy's socks seem very out of place.
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jaichind
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« Reply #123 on: April 07, 2023, 04:13:44 AM »

Watching the Tsai-McCarthy press conference and watching Tsai give a statement it occurred to me that Tsai's English is worse than expected.   She spoke with a British accent (she attended LSE) which makes sense but overall she struggled to speak English fluently.

Tsai is a Hakka but the old joke about Tsai is her English is better than her Mandarin, her Mandarin is better than her Hoklo and her Hoklo is better than her Hakka when it really should be exactly the opposite.  Her Hoklo is questionable and usually, when she speaks Hoklo at DPP rallies it is painful to watch her struggle and then as quickly as possible switches to Mandarin.  There were rumors that as soon as she is meeting privately with her advisors she often speaks English.  Watching her remarks in English a couple of days ago I think these rumors are not true.  Her English is clearly worse than her Mandarin.
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jaichind
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« Reply #124 on: April 07, 2023, 02:22:57 PM »

Now the Tsai trip to the USA is over it is clear what took place.  Biden administration-PRC made a deal to make this trip very low-key at the expense of Tsai and McCarthy.  When Tsai was "transiting" through NYC, the NYC mayor and NY governor did not show up even though all other ROC Prez "transit" through NYC since the 1990s almost have one of them if not both show up. Tsai did not meet anyone from the Biden administration.  The  Tsai-McCarthy meeting was very low key and that seems to be mostly a Tsai decision.  The Biden administration must have put pressure on Tsai to keep that meeting low-key so
McCarthy cannot score any political points.

Given what the Biden administration has done I expect PRC soon to respond to USA's desires for a Biden-Xi call as well as a Yellen visit to PRC.  I am sure the purpose of such a Yellen trip will be to say to the PRC "I know you are selling treasuries, in the summer we will have a USA debt limit crisis in a political battle against the GOP, and we need you to stop selling during that period which could make the crisis worse"
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