2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Now the Tsai trip to the USA is over it is clear what took place.  Biden administration-PRC made a deal to make this trip very low-key at the expense of Tsai and McCarthy.  When Tsai was "transiting" through NYC, the NYC mayor and NY governor did not show up even though all other ROC Prez "transit" through NYC since the 1990s almost have one of them if not both show up. Tsai did not meet anyone from the Biden administration.  The  Tsai-McCarthy meeting was very low key and that seems to be mostly a Tsai decision.  The Biden administration must have put pressure on Tsai to keep that meeting low-key so
McCarthy cannot score any political points.

Given what the Biden administration has done I expect PRC soon to respond to USA's desires for a Biden-Xi call as well as a Yellen visit to PRC.  I am sure the purpose of such a Yellen trip will be to say to the PRC "I know you are selling treasuries, in the summer we will have a USA debt limit crisis in a political battle against the GOP, and we need you to stop selling during that period which could make the crisis worse"

Well, I wish Yellen the best of luck for her PRC trip.

[jaichind]

The rumor from the Guo camp is that they will adopt a "Trump-style" campaign to try to win the KMT draft nomination.  I assume what the Guo camp means is to try to run a non-conventional anti-establishment-style campaign.

[jaichind]

TPOF Prez Poll

TPOF is a renegade DPP outfit and tends to oversample youth vote which means it is likely to overestimate TPP and to some extent DPP support and underestimate KMT support

Lai's surge in March on the back of his being nominated recedes and the numbers look like what they were around Jan 2023

DPP Lai     33.4
KMT Hou   29.7
TPP Ko      22.6



By gender
                    Men         Women
DPP Lai         36               31
KMT Hou       26               33
TPP Ko          24              21

The Pan-Blue women's gender gap returns.  TPP Tsai closed the gap a lot not just because she is a woman but because her moderate position on the PRC-ROC relationship tends to play better with the more security-concerned women voters.  Lai being for Taiwan Independence means that this gender gap is back


By age
                  20-24        25-34       35-44       45-54       55-64        65+
DPP Lai         22               33          23            27            41           46
KMT Hou       31               20          31            36            32           29
TPP Ko          36               35          32            23            17            4.5

Lai is the candidate or the elderly.  Hou is a candidate of middle-aged and Ko is a candidate of youth.

Once Hou gets nominated he will have a surge to put him well ahead of Lai and then that surge will recede this poll most likely will have Hou and Lai neck to neck after that

[jaichind]

DPP maverick MLA 王世堅(Wang Shih-chien) wins "primary" against incumbent DPP MP 何志偉(Ho Chih-wei) for fairly safe DPP Taipei 2nd district.  Wang was a MP back in the 2000s ran here as the DPP candidate in 2008 and lost badly before going back to the Taipei City Council.  Wang was Deep green back in the 2000s and has reinvited himself as a light green.  He is now expected to win this seat in the general election against the KMT.

[jaichind]

It looks more and more likely that 2024 will be DPP Lai vs KMT Hou.  But going further out in the future, other than Chiang, it seems the next generation of talent are all women going by up-and-coming politicians that were prominent and promoted by the MSM this election cycle

What is clear is that after 2024 KMT Chu, KMT Hou, and DPP Lai will not run for any political office if they are not elected ROC Prez.  
 
As for the generation after that on the KMT side, it would have to be Taipei City MLA 徐巧芯 (Hsu Chiao-Hsin) (age 33).    She was already worked as a spokesperson for the KMT Ma administration and is a clear superstar on the KMT side.  She is expected to run for and win a MP spot in 2024.  I can see her running as the KMT Prez candidate in 2040.

Hsu just beat the long-time incumbent KMT MP in Taipei 7th (lean Blue district) 費鴻泰 (Fai Hung-tai) in the KMT "primary" (70% polling, 30% party member vote) and now seems poised to become a MP after 2024 elections.  So her path to KMT superstar status is intact but the road ahead is pretty long.

My guess is that if KMT Hou loses in 2024 the next KMT Prez most likely will be Chiang (most likely 2023).  But if KMT Hou wins in 2024 then the next KMT Prez will most likely be Hsu in 2040.

Hsu married in 2018 (to a KMT internet operative) but at age 33 has no children.  Now that she will become a MP I suspect she will also become childless.  This fits my rule that if you want to be a women politician in ROC (and other oriental political systems) you will be childless unless your husband or father is a prominent politician and you enter politics a good time after you have children to take over the political legacy of your husband or father.  If you have to fight your way up the political ladder you are likely to be single (not true for Hsu but true for many other top political women in ROC) and for sure childless.

[jaichind]

Within hours of winning her KMT primary Taipei 7th, Taipei City MLA 徐巧芯 (Hsu Chiao-Hsin) started her attack on her likely DPP opponent, fellow women Taipei City MLA 許淑華 (Hsu Shu-Hua) (who is the namesake of recently elected KMT County magistrate of 南投縣(Nantou County)).  徐巧芯 (Hsu Chiao-Hsin) accused 許淑華 (Hsu Shu-Hua) of being a no-show at many Taipei City mandatory assembly sessions and provided a bunch of pictures to prove her point saying that her likely DPP opponent was taking a salary of a MLA but AWOL at work.    It seems 徐巧芯 (Hsu Chiao-Hsin)  was expecting to win her primary and already has a bunch of dirt on her likely DPP opponent and started to use it right away.

[jaichind]

陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung), son of old DPP Prez Chen, and currently DPP MLA in Kaoshiung City, has his conviction with his wife of corruption confirmed and will serve 1 year in jail along with with his wife.
This case is associated with his parent's corruption when DPP Prez Chen was in office from 2000-2008.  Clearly, he will lose his MLA seat.  The good news for the DPP is the runner-up in his district who will become the new MLA is also a DPP candidate so the DPP will not lose a seat in the city council.

There are a lot of fun stories about 陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) which I will write about soon.

[jaichind]

陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung), age 44, is the son of DPP Prez Chen.    He was in college when his father was elected ROC Prez in 2000.  He was about to enter the military draft and was used in DPP ads in the 2000 campaign to show DPP Prez Chen's commitment to the ROC military (which was very hostile to the DPP at that time since all military officers have a KMT background).



In 2005 陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) got married to 黃睿靚 (Huang Jui Ching), a piano performer/teacher and TV broadcaster.


It seems during DPP Prez Chen's second term there were all sorts of corruption and money laundry that DPP Prez Chen got involved (for which he was convicted and jailed for.)  陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) and his wife also seems to have helped and just had their conviction upheld for which why 陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) is going to prison.

After 2008 when DPP Prez Chen left office and got in legal trouble 陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) left the DPP since he felt that new DPP Chairperson Tsai was lukewarm in backing his father in court and public opinion.  陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) decided to run in the 2010 Kaoshiung City Council election as a pro-DPP independent which is when all the fun began.

During the election campaign, various tabloids came out with stories that 陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) was a frequent visitor to an elite escort called "Nico."  

 

Of course, 陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) asked for it since by running for public office he put himself out there as a public figure.  陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) denied this allegation and sued the various tabloids for defamation.  He was fully supported by his wife 黃睿靚 (Huang Jui Ching) in public. During the trial which took place during the election campaign, it was proven in court through cell phone records that 陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) was indeed a user of the services of the elite escort "Nico."  The court ruling against 陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) took place a few days before the election.  陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung)  will go down in ROC history as the only person officially and legally designated as a "John".  After the trial, his wife 黃睿靚 (Huang Jui Ching) continues to insist that the result of the trial is bogus and she totally believes her husband's story.

The result of the election was a massive landslide victory for 陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) who ate up a bunch of DPP votes that it cost the DPP 1 or 2 other MLA slots.  

Why?  Simple.  For the socially conservative DPP base in the South, their views of this are that "What is the big deal about seeing an escort?  Did 陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) fulfill his husband and fatherly duties? If so then this is a nothing burger"   But what led to the landslide is many people voted not for 陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) but really voted for his wife 黃睿靚 (Huang Jui Ching).  Their view is "陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung)'s wife 黃睿靚 (Huang Jui Ching) is the true example of what a wife should do.  She knows the truth but she chooses to back her husband no matter what even in the face of clear physical evidence to the contrary."  This led to a massive sympathy wave for 陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung).

Of course, the story does not end here.  In 2011 there was a criminal trial for 陳致中(Chen Chih-Chung) for lying under oath during his defamation suit in 2010 which he lost and was convicted.  Due to this, he lost his seat on the Kaoshiung City Council.  Chen ran in 2012 as a pro-DPP independent in a safe DPP seat and split the DPP vote to throw the race to the KMT.  After the 2014 local elections, it was clear that the DPP was going to return to power in 2016 and Chen returned to the DPP.  He ran and won in 2018 and 2022 for his old Kaoshing City council seat.

Of course, now he will lose his seat again to go to jail for a year for the delayed confirmed conviction of corruption charges going back to 2006-2008 as a part of his father DPP Prez Chen's corruption cases.

[jaichind]

UDN reports that KMT will announce its 2024 Prez candidate around May 20th

[jaichind]

It seems DPP Prez Chen's daughter in law 黃睿靚 (Huang Jui Ching) will not be joining her husband in jail even though she was convicted of the same crime as her husband of aiding the corruption of DPP Prez Chen during the 2006-2008 period.  The reason the judge gave for suspending her sentence is "it is impossible for a daughter-in-law to say no to the mother-in-law when the mother-in-law insists she does something, even something illegal."  So the sentencing logic seems to be "it is reasonable for a son to say no to what his parents ask so he is accountable for his actions but it is not reasonable for a daughter-in-law to say no to her mother-in-law so she is not accountable for her actions."  I am all for clear and different gender roles in society and if necessary embedded in law as well but I find this logic difficult to accept.

BTW, it seems that former DPP Prez Chen's son-in-law who was also jailed for corruption associated with his parents-in-law is about to be released from prison.  So for former DPP Prez he has his son-in-law coming out of prison just in time for his son to enter prison.

[jaichind]

Ko indicates that he will run for Prez in 2024 as the TPP candidate.  Given TPP won more than 5% in the 2020 PR vote Ko will have ballot access without a signature campaign.  This mostly cuts off any chances of a Guo-Ko ticket.  Although Ko knows the chances of a TPP legislative majority are zero so he is hinting at a TPP-KMT coalition government after if he wins the election in 2024.

[jaichind]

ROC 2023 Q1 GDP came in at a -3.02% YoY.  That is on top of a 2023 Q4 GDP of -0.4%.  So ROC is now going into recession.   To some extent, this is a reversion to the mean since 2020 and 2021 the ROC greatly outperformed. 

Historically economic issues have not played a role in ROC elections. The 2001 and 2009 recessions came very early in the Prez term so they had little impact on the 2004 and 2012 re-elections.

These days ROC booms and busts are really about the tech/export sector.  The rest of the economy has been stagnating since the early 2000s.  So this recession will hit the top 5% and people working in the tech sector just like the 2020-2021 boom benefited them the most.  The electoral impact most likely will be limited but for sure this is not good news for DPP.

[jaichind]

Light Blue UDN poll shows Lai surge is over and that Guo is neck-to-neck with Hou in relative terms.
It also shows that Guo is more popular outside the KMT base than Hou who is more popular with KMT voters.

This is ironic since Hou is Light Blue and Guo is Deep Blue.  This shows that the electorate is more about party establishment vs non-establishment as opposed to ideology.  In the 2019 DPP primary Deep Green Lai was more popular outside the DPP base than Light Green Tsai who was more popular with the DPP base when it should be the other way around.  The same party establishment vs non-establishment was at play.

Overall very good poll for Guo.  Not a surprise since Light Blue UDN is mostly pro-Guo while Deep Blue Chinatimes is pro-Hou which again is an inversion.   Again that is about Chinatimes billionaire owner 蔡衍明(Tsai Eng-meng)'s rivalry with fellow billionaire Guo.

Who do you want to see defeated in 2024
DPP    34
KMT    13
TPP     14

3-way
KMT Hou    29
DPP Lai      27
TPP Ko       23

KMT Guo    29
DPP Lai      27
TPP Ko       22

2-way
KMT Hou    42
DPP Lai      35

KMT Guo    44
DPP Lai      33



The same poll on issues is positive for KMT

Are you for non-nuclear 2025 plans
Yes           33   (DPP position)
No            44   (KMT position)

Which party's position on cross-strait (PRC-ROC) issues
DPP         27
KMT         26
TPP           8

Chances of cross-strait (PRC-ROC) war in the next 10 years
High        34  (DPP position) (USA position)
Not High  47  (KMT position)

[jaichind]

Lai got a surge when there was a lot of news on the DPP side on the Prez candidate and then when he was nominated.   Now Lai is locked in as the DPP candidate the news shifts to the KMT side which is clearly leading to a rise in support for the KMT candidate.  If the KMT can manage to produce a candidate (most likely Hou) without civil war and emerge united then I expect another KMT surge in the polls.  Then in the fall, it will revert to the mean with KMT-DPP neck-to-neck or slight KMT lead.

The May-June KMT surge has grave danger for Ko.  I always said that Ko will converge to be above 20 in the polls or below 10 in the polls.  If and when a united KMT polling surge takes place in June it will most likely come at the expense of Ko who might be in danger of falling into the below 10% zone.  I sort of see Ko as Perot in the Spring of 1992 who was polling well.  But once the DNC took place there was a Clinton surge in the polls, mostly at the expense of Perot, and Perot never recovered.

[jaichind]

1 million people? do you have the data? I don't think it is such many people work there.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218787/true-battleground-us-china-cold-war-will-be-europe

It's not like they indicate a source but the SCMP article just released came out with a claim that it is 1.2 million

Although most Taiwanese wish to maintain the status quo, the process of cross-strait integration has begun. An estimated 1.2 million Taiwanese, or 5 per cent of Taiwan’s population, lived and worked on the mainland in 2020. So long as mainland China continues to open up, this process won’t stop.

[jaichind]

The KMT will likely begin its internal polls within the week to be used to decide who among Hou and Guo to draft.  Guo has been running around meeting with key local KMT office holders as well as public events to push up his media coverage.  It seems to be working.  There are rumors that he is catching up with Hou both direct matchups as well as relative to Lai and Ko matchups.  If true that creates a headache for KMT Chairperson Chu who will need to persuade the losing candidate to accept the result and back the nominee.  If the polls has it very close between the two that might be hard to pull off.

[jaichind]

KMT says it would announce its 2024 Prez candidate on May 17th.  The KMT office holders clearly prefer Hou while polling most likely favor Hou over Gou but that margin is most likely coming down. Gou doing all sorts of media events and rallies to push up his poll numbers while Hou is focused on working out deals between rival KMT contenders for MP nominations. In other words Hou is focused on KMT insiders. 

Separately, Hou came out against Taiwan Independence and PRC's "one country two systems" formula but was evasive on if he supported eventual reunification through a different formula. 

[jaichind]

Hou and Guo had an unplanned meeting at an event in a major New Taipei City temple.  Guo is well known as a believer in the Chinese traditional folk religion like Matsu and Hou was there due to him being the mayor.  It seems they got along well despite being in an intense behind the scenes battle for the KMT nomination.

[jaichind]

To try to win support from the rural Southern Hoklo areas Guo has started to give speeches in Hoklo.  Main problem is that his Hoklo is even worse than DPP Prez Tsai.  Guo has a mainlander background and does most of his business in the North, PRC or USA so he really never had a chance to learn fluent Hoklo.  It is already pretty cringe watching DPP Prez Tsai giving a speech in Hoklo but it is even worse for Guo.  Like DPP Prez Tsai, Guo usually have to give up in the middle of the speech to switch back to Mandarin.

[Octowakandi]

To try to win support from the rural Southern Hoklo areas Guo has started to give speeches in Hoklo.  Main problem is that his Hoklo is even worse than DPP Prez Tsai.  Guo has a mainlander background and does most of his business in the North, PRC or USA so he really never had a chance to learn fluent Hoklo.  It is already pretty cringe watching DPP Prez Tsai giving a speech in Hoklo but it is even worse for Guo.  Like DPP Prez Tsai, Guo usually have to give up in the middle of the speech to switch back to Mandarin.

Do you still feel that Hou is the weaker candidate to win the election? Seems like Guo isn't quite catching on.

[jaichind]

To try to win support from the rural Southern Hoklo areas Guo has started to give speeches in Hoklo.  Main problem is that his Hoklo is even worse than DPP Prez Tsai.  Guo has a mainlander background and does most of his business in the North, PRC or USA so he really never had a chance to learn fluent Hoklo.  It is already pretty cringe watching DPP Prez Tsai giving a speech in Hoklo but it is even worse for Guo.  Like DPP Prez Tsai, Guo usually have to give up in the middle of the speech to switch back to Mandarin.

Do you still feel that Hou is the weaker candidate to win the election? Seems like Guo isn't quite catching on.

Hou will be the stronger candidate than Guo.  Guo has a large amount of business on PRC.  Once he is the candidate the DPP will spend the entire campaign going after Guo's "connections" with the CCP.

[jaichind]

Renegade DPP poller TPOF which has a youth, TPP, and slight DPP bias as Hou vs Gou head-to-head at

Hou    42.1
Gou    29.4



           Hou     Gou
KMT      49       38
TPP       39       48
DPP       42       24
Ind       31       18

Gou slightly ahead in the North minus New Taipei city where Hou is the mayor while Hou sweeps the rest by large margins

[jaichind]

There are unofficial and unconfirmed rumors from KMT that KMT Chairperson Chu has decided to draft Hou to be the 2024 KMT Prez candidate. If true how Gou reacts will be critical for if the KMT will have a real shot at winning

[jaichind]

KMT Chairperson Chu met with Hou and Gou separately last night.  This is most likely for Chu to tell Hou and Gou his decision as well as KMT polling data.  After these meetings, various pro-Guo activities planned by pro-Guo forces in the KMT were canceled for today.  Most likely an announcement is coming soon that it will be Hou.

[jaichind]

Guo's main mistake was that he did not go all out to back the KMT campaign in the 2022 local elections.  Hou clearly did and got a lot of support from people who then will become "super delegates" in the KMT nomination process that KMT Chairperson Chu has to take into account.  Gou tried to hedge himself and only decided that he wanted to get the KMT nomination after the KMT sweep in the 2022 local elections and that the KMT had a chance at winning in 2024.  The KMT officeholders clearly remember this.