2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

On the topic of Chinese politicians using historical stories to indirectly send their political message the most famous one has to be the Maoist faction led by Mao's wife Jiang Chin in the fall of  1976. 

As Mao was nearing death the Maoist faction-controlled People's Daily published an editorial that was "劉邦之後 吕后接班" or "After Liu Bang, Empress Lu proved a worthy successor to carry out his work" which refers to the fact that after the death of the Han Dynasty founder 劉邦(Liu Bang) his wife 吕后(Empress Lu) was in charge for a while.  吕后(Empress Lu) also carried out a bloody purge of her political opponents after she took over.   劉邦(Liu Bang)  and Mao is very similar as both were from commoner background and won power in a protracted civil war. 

So having that particular editorial in the People Daily is like having the NY Times, Washington Post, and other key papers publishing a headline on the same day "Jiang Chin led Maoist bloc to launch coup after Mao's death and purge their opponents" right around the time that Mao is likely to pass away.

BTW, right after Mao's death a grand alliance of anti-Mao factions launch their own preemptive coup and arrested the Jiang Chin and her Maoist faction also known as Gang of Four.

[jaichind]

TVBS Prez poll

3 way

KMT Hou  34
DPP Lai    25
TPP Ko     21

KMT Guo  34
DPP Lai    25
TPP Ko     20

DPP Lai    31
TPP Ko     30
KMT Chu  14

Guo and Hou pretty much perform the same in 3-way battles.

2 way

KMT Hou  51
DPP Lai    32

KMT Guo  47
DPP Lai    34

DPP Lai    44
KMT Chu  25

Hou is stronger than Guo in 2-way fights.

Hou vs Lai vs Ko cross-tabs

             DPP       KMT        TPP      NPP     TSP     Ind.      Other
           (22%)     (24%)   (11%)   (4%)   (1%)   (28%)    (10%)
Hou        11         74          30       19        14       29         21
Lai          73          2            2       25         67      17         18
Ko            6        14           61       41         0        21         19


Gou vs Lai vs Ko cross-tabs

             DPP       KMT        TPP      NPP     TSP     Ind.      Other
           (22%)     (24%)   (11%)   (4%)   (1%)   (28%)    (10%)
Gou        17         66          40       13          4       26         23
Lai          68          4            3       24        77       19         19
Ko            6        17           51       45         0        20         15

Hou is better at keeping the KMT base and eating into the NPP vote than Guo.  But Guo is better at eating into DPP and TPP voters than Hou.   Hou is better at taking light green while Guo is better at taking the youth vote.

[jaichind]

Renegade DPP pollster TPOF did a poll on the back of KMT Hou's comment about "we should not be a pawn of a superpower."     

The poll question is "There are reasons to be suspicious of the USA's intentions when they want to increase defense and political connections with us.  The USA might be pushing us into conflict with PRC for their benefit.  Do you agree or disagree?"

The result was agreed/disagree 38/53

This is not as bad for KMT Hou as it appears.  What is interesting is agree of youth voters was 52.  Many older pan-Blue voters mainly disagreed due to their memories of the USA-ROC alliance during the Cold War even as they embrace more constructive relationships with PRC.  It seems the youth vote is not anti-PRC per se but anti-superpower.  Post-2012 the DPP was able to effectively portray the PRC as the superpower to be against and this poll shows an opening for the KMT to try to get the youth anti-superpower views to turn against the DPP and their links to the USA.

Some DPP postmortems of the 2022 local elections indicated attitudes toward the USA among pro-DPP anti-KMT youth got more negative toward the USA after the Pelosi visit in the Summer of 2022.  This poll seems to confirm that narrative.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/073c1abc-b230-48df-986e-42002b817e6a

"Taiwan presidential contender sparks US concerns over China tensions"

Note this FT article came out just as DPP VP Lai becomes the Chairperson of DPP.  DPP Prez Tsai is behind this.  She is feeding her concerns about Lai to USA using the excuse that Lai might be a radical on the Taiwan Independence issue.  This article is a warning to Lai that he still has to pass the USA "interview" before he can become ROC Prez.  Spoiler alert: Lai's position on Taiwan Independence is not the real issue from DPP Prez Tsai point of view.  It is really a personality conflict between the two. 

[jaichind]

One critical piece of data in the TVBS poll is that DPP Lai is getting almost zero TPP votes in 3-way match-ups.  This is a dramatic shift from 2020 when DPP Tsai was able to win over 70% of the TPP PR vote.   Part of it was due to KMT Han being a poor fit for the urban TPP PR vote, but PFP Soong should be able to pick up a good part of the TPP PR vote in 2020 but most of it went to DPP Tsai.

DPP Lai's poor showing with the TPP vote shows his poor fit with the Northern and urban vote which is exactly DPP Tsai's strength.  DPP Tsai's 2016 and 2020 landslide victories were a combination of DPP Tsai's Northern and urban appeal PLUS the old DPP Southern and rural base turnout for her as well given PRC-POC tensions.

My 2020 ROC Prez election regression against the PR vote analysis below

I have been mapping out the 2020 vote in the 319 wards, townships and villages in ROC try to get a sense of the relationship between the Prez, legislative PR and legislative district vote using regression analysis.  I already mapped out the Prez and PR vote.

My method is to divide up the 319  wards, townships and villages into Deep Blue, Light Blue, Light Green and Deep Green areas.   Deep Blue and Deep Green are mostly rural and are the KMT and DPP strongholds while Light Blue and Light Green more urban marginal areas.

I also broke the PR vote into, KMT, DPP, TPP, smaller Pan-Blue parties, smaller Pan-Green parties and looked at the Prez vote by Blue (Han and Soong) and Green (Tsai) voets.

Overall the vote was
Prez  57.13-42.87

PR
DPP            33.98
Pan-Green  16.38
TPP            11.22
Pan-Blue      6.37
KMT           33.36



For Deep Blue areas the vote was
Prez  46.41-53.59

PR
DPP            26.26
Pan-Green  13.04
TPP            10.90
Pan-Blue      7.58
KMT           42.22

Using regression I conclude the Prez vote by PR was

DPP              96-4
Pan-Green    95-5
TPP              70-30
Pan-Blue        5-95
KMT               3-98


For Light Blue areas the vote was
Prez  55.09-44.91

PR
DPP            30.92
Pan-Green  15.31
TPP            12.86
Pan-Blue      6.77
KMT           34.14

Using regression I conclude the Prez vote by PR was

DPP              95-5
Pan-Green    95-5
TPP              63-37
Pan-Blue      20-80
KMT               5-95


For Light Green areas the vote was
Prez  59.44-40.56

PR
DPP            35.62
Pan-Green  15.31
TPP            11.45
Pan-Blue      6.06
KMT           31.55

Using regression I conclude the Prez vote by PR was

DPP              95-5
Pan-Green    95-5
TPP              72-28
Pan-Blue      20-80
KMT               5-95


For Deep Green areas the vote was
Prez  65.98-34.02

PR
DPP            41.80
Pan-Green  16.38
TPP             9.80
Pan-Blue      5.28
KMT           26.73

Using regression I conclude the Prez vote by PR was

DPP              95-5
Pan-Green    98-2
TPP              77-23
Pan-Blue      27-73
KMT               5-95


What we get from this is
a) TPP stronger in the more urban light blue and light green urban areas as expected
b TPP lean Tsai in Prez vote is not a surprise.  The Pan-Blue part of the TPP PR vote voted TPP as they were turned off by Han
c) Tsai had cross partisan appeal by eating into the smaller party Pan-Blue PR vote
d) The Deep green smaller party Pan-Blue PR and TPP PR heavier Tsai lean shows the scale of the failure of the Han strategy.  Han was suppose to have rural appeal due to his personality especially in Deep Green areas.  Instead it worked the other way around.
e) In the end the DPP approach of somewhat embracing gay marriage in 2018 was a plus.  A reluctant DPP embrace of gay marriage cost it dear in 2018 as its conservative rural base defected in  a period where the sentiment was more pro-unification and the unification-independence issue has less salience.  But by paying this price the DPP got dividends in 2020 when the sentiment shifted quickly toward independence due to HK protests which got the old DPP rural conservative base to come home  plus marginal urban youth liberal voters turned out in droves to vote Tsai given her commitment to gay marriage.

[jaichind]

There are now rumors in KMT circles that KMT chairperson Chu will work to construct a grand anti-DPP Guo-Chu ticket.  Such a ticket would stop the momentum of Hou and put pressure on Ko to back this ticket and if not at least marginalize Ko.  If true then Hou will have to announce soon that he is running for the KMT nomination or risk the Guo-Chu ticket becoming a fait accompli.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/073c1abc-b230-48df-986e-42002b817e6a

"Taiwan presidential contender sparks US concerns over China tensions"

Note this FT article came out just as DPP VP Lai becomes the Chairperson of DPP.  DPP Prez Tsai is behind this.  She is feeding her concerns about Lai to USA using the excuse that Lai might be a radical on the Taiwan Independence issue.  This article is a warning to Lai that he still has to pass the USA "interview" before he can become ROC Prez.  Spoiler alert: Lai's position on Taiwan Independence is not the real issue from DPP Prez Tsai point of view.  It is really a personality conflict between the two. 

BTW, I checked.  The FT reporter that wrote this article is known to be close to DPP Prez Tsai.  Yeah.  This article is mostly a DPP Prez Tsai warning to DPP chairperson Lai "You better not step out of line.  I have the USA's ear.  I can fix it so the USA would become an insurmountable obstacle to you winning in 2024.  Your political career might be killed before you even get to face the KMT."

[jaichind]

DPP PM Su had a meeting with DPP Prez Tsai and afterward announced his resignation as ROC PM.  I guess DPP Prez Tsai told DPP PM Su to his face that he had to go leaving him with no room to maneuver.   So DPP PM Su's last ditched attempt to keep his job with veiled threats at DPP Prez Tsai failed.

Now we will see if the previous DPP VP Chen takes over as PM as reported in the media a few days ago.

[jaichind]

Something weird is going on.   After DPP PM Su resigned, DPP Prez Tsai did not officially accept his resignation and did not name a new PM.  This is very unusual.  Usually, when a ROC PM resigns it is worked out with the ROC Prez well in advance and the ROC Prez would have had a new PM name ready ASAP.  Various media houses are saying that former DPP VP Chen did not want the PM role leaving DPP Prez Tsai in a lurch.  It seems now we are in a waiting period where DPP Prez Tsai will try to convince former DPP VP Chen to take the PM job or find someone else.  That someone else could be 蘇嘉全 (Su Jia-Chuan) who was Tsai's running mate in 2012 in a losing effort and then later become Speaker of the Legislature in 2016-2020.  Su's main problem is that his son who is also a MP has been involved in a large corruption scandal.  Another alternative would be 林佳龍(Lin Chia-Lung), former mayor of Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +1) before losing re-election in 2018 and just recently ran against Hou in New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +1) losing by a landslide.  Lin has the least controversy but is a more diminished politician by losing 2 elections in a row by larger-than-expected margins and is not as close to DPP Prez Tsai as Chen or Su.

I suspect DPP Prez Tsai will need the Chinese New Year period to work this out but whoever she picks will now seem to be a diminished PM given the long time period it took to produce that PM's name.

[jaichind]

Every Chinese New Year the 大龍峒保安宮 (Bao'an Temple) performs a 求籤(Lottery poetry) (a type of Chinese folk religion fortune telling) on behalf of the nation (in this case ROC.)  

This year's poem is

言語雖多不可從、風雲靜處未行龍、暗中發得明消息、君爾何須問重重


Which mostly means "the future is very cloudy, it is best not to make rash moves.  There will be a lot of people with different and potentially radical ideas.  It is best to ignore those ideas and review your current situation carefully.  Once you reviewed all the facts you will know what to do."

This poem is mostly negative for DPP candidate Lai who will likely be the radical candidate in the upcoming election.  This poem seems to suggest to both DPP and KMT that they are better off moving toward the middle of the upcoming campaign.

[jaichind]

Speaking of 求籤(Lottery poetry) the top temple in Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) 仁壽宮 (Ren Shou Gong) this time last year came out with

蛇身意欲變成龍，只恐命內運未通，久病且作寬心坐，言語雖多不可從


Which says "A snake tries to become a dragon. But being overly ambitious when it is not meant to be will only lead to disaster.  It is like a sick person trying to do the work of a healthy man. It is best to give up for now and reorganize and plan for the long term."

Many people afterward said that this poem correctly predicted that the DPP sitting mayor of the smaller 新竹市(Hsinchu City) 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) running for the mayor of the larger 桃園市(Taoyuan City) is a "snake" that tries to become a "dragon" and then was forced to give up his attempt to become a "dragon."

[jaichind]

DPP VP Lai, if he becomes the DPP nominee, does potentially have a problem with his position on PRC-ROC relations.

There are three broad positions on PRC-ROC

a) One China
b) Two Chinas
c) One China, One Taiwan

Since 1996 the results have been

1996
KMT Lee            54.0% (Hybrid One China/Two China)
DPP Peng           21.1% (One China, One Taiwan)
KMT rebel Lin     14.9% (One China)
KMT rebel Chen  10.0% (One China)

2000
DPP Chen           39.3% (One China, One Taiwan)
KMT rebel Soong 36.8% (One China)
KMT Lien             23.1% (Hybrid One China/Two China)

2004
DPP Chen           50.1% (One China, One Taiwan)
KMT Lien            49.9% (One China)

2008
KMT Ma             58.5% (One China)
DPP Hsieh          41.5% (One China, One Taiwan)

2012
KMT Ma             51.6% (One China)
DPP Tsai            45.6% (Two China)
PFP Soong           2.8% (One China)

2016
DPP Tsai            56.1% (Two China)
KMT Chu           31.1% (One China)
PFP Soong         12.8% (One China)

2020
DPP Tsai            57.1% (Two China)
KMT Han           38.6% (One China)
PFP Soong           4.3% (One China)

Note that candidates with One China or Two Chinas have won landslides but the best a One China, One Taiwan position has done was 50.1% with DPP Chen 2004.  And in 2004 DPP Chen was running for re-election and experienced an attempted assassination a day before the election.

In 2024 DPP Lai will clearly run on One China, One Taiwan.  If Ko runs most likely he will run on Two China.  If KMT run Guo he will run as One China while Hou will most likely replicate the 1996 Lee Hybrid One China/Two China campaign if he becomes the KMT candidate.

[jaichind]

The latest media rumor is that former DPP VP Chen has agreed to become PM and that this will be announced tomorrow.  It seems DPP Prez Tsai has convinced former DPP VP Chen to take over.

[jaichind]

It's official.  Former DPP VP Chen becomes PM with former DPP mayor of Taoyuan City (桃園市) 鄭文燦 (Cheng Wen-Tsan)  becoming DPM.  The cabinet layout clearly is a "Stop Lai" cabinet with representation from all factions, including Northern New Tide (Cheng is the de facto leader of the Northern New Tide faction and is close to DPP Prez Tsai), included except for Southern New Tide which is the core of DPP VP Lai's support base.

This cabinet is the re-emergence of DPP Prez Tsai after being forced into the background after the heavy defeat in the Nov 2022 local elections.  Her minimalist goal is to ensure that she is not marginalized even if DPP VP Lai becomes the DPP nominee and her maximalist goal is to see if she can get the PM Chen cabinet to work well enough and get enough popular support within the DPP and the general public that perhaps DPP PM Chen could challenge DPP VP Lai for the 2024 DPP nomination.

[jaichind]

There is some funny stuff with the way the new DPP PM Chen is taking office.  His old role is a "Special Advisor" to Academia Sinica which is ROC's top government research academy.  His role, which he took on after leaving the ROC VP role, is a specialized role that has tenure (he cannot be fired and can keep this job as long as he wants) and pays $280K a year for basically doing nothing or research when he feels like it.

It seems now he is not quitting his role of "Special Advisor" to Academia Sinica but is being "lent" by Academia Sinica to the PM office to become PM.  This way in May 2024 when DPP Prez Tsai steps down and he can go back to his old "job" and continue to collect $280K (which is really $560K in PPP terms once you take ROC cost of living into account) a year.

[jaichind]

Next problem for new DPP PM Chen.  It seems he was involved in his own plagiarism scandal back in 2007.  It seems in 2007 he was one of the scientists that published a paper "Hormone replacement therapy and lung cancer risk in Chinese"

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17879370/
(note Chien-Jen Chen, who is now DPP PM Chen appears as one of the authors)

It seems the paper plagiarized research from another paper.  What made this case funny is the paper they plagiarized from was written by the editor of the magazine they submitted the paper to and was caught right away.  They had to re-write the paper a couple of times before it was finally accepted.

Given how plagiarism hit the DPP election campaign in 2022 local elections this is not a good look and the KMT MPs will be coming after him about this.  I guess in 2016 since he was the VP candidate the KMT did not bother to bring this scandal up.

Another pseudo-scandal with the new DPP PM Chen is that 6 years ago he gave a speech where he inferred that his family was a victim of the KMT "228 incident" crackdown.  In 1947 Feb 28 there was a pro-CCP pro-Taiwan Independence uprising which the ROC armed forced had to crack down.  Yes, back in 1947 CCP was FOR Taiwan Independence which is a disgrace chapter of many disgraceful chapters of the CCP.  The problem with Chen's claim is that in 1947 his father 陳新安 (Chen Shin-An) was already working with the KMT and was rising quickly in the KMT administration and it is very unlikely that his family would be at any risk of any ROC armed forces crackdown on the uprising.  In fact 陳新安 (Chen Shin-An), who later became the KMT county executive of 高雄縣 (Kaohsiung County) in 1954-1957 would if anything would be helping the ROC armed forces and pro-KMT paramilitary in cracking down on the uprising.

[jaichind]

New DPP Chairperson Lai: "DPP lost the 2022 local elections due to plagiarism scandals, we have to root this problem out of the party so we can win in 2024"

DPP Prez Tsai: Nominates new PM and DPM both of which has confirmed cases of plagiarism

[jaichind]

2019 vs 2023.  Its the same gang of people.

It is customary that when there is a change in ROC PM the ROC VP officiates the ceremony where the ROC executive seal is handed from the old ROC PM to the new ROC PM

Back in 2019 Chen was ROC VP and DPP PM Lai had to step down for the DPP defeat in the 2018 local elections.  So Chen officiated the handing of the seal from Lai to Su

  
Fast forward to 2023.  Now Su has to step down as PM because of the DPP defeat in the 202 local elections but now Lai is the ROC DPP VP.  So now Lai  officiated the handing of the seal from Su to Chen


I guess the next step is for Su to somehow for Su to become VP and then officiate the handing of the deal from Chen back to Lai in some hypothetical future to complete the triangle.  Fun fact, Su actually ran for the DPP VP spot in 2008 as the running mate for Hsieh but was crushed by Ma in a landslide.

[jaichind]

Shift in the balance of power within the DPP.  The ROC national security council meeting seating arrangement shows that it used to be chaired equally by DPP Prez Tsai and DPP PM Su.  Now it will be led by DPP Prez Tsai with DPP VP and DPP Chairperson Lai and DPP PM Chen both sitting at her side

 

This an elevation of Lai's position but Tsai put Chen as a co-equal to Lai to indicate that Chen will be used as a pawn in her struggle for power with Lai.  Also note that in classical Chinese seating protocol right is higher than left.  So by Chen being seated on Tsai's right he is elevated about Lai in term of rank.  Clearly a feature and not a bug from Tsai's point of view.

[jaichind]

Former DPP VP Annette Lu (she was ROC VP from 2000-2008) came out with an article saying "We must work to ensure that Taiwan does not turn into Ukraine"  indicating that Ukraine is facing utter disaster and the DPP could be leading ROC in that direction.

Lu was a famous feminist and Taiwan Independence activist back in the 1970s and 1980s was jailed by the KMT government for promoting Taiwan Independence and was considered Deep Green.   Since 2018 she broke with the DPP (she was very negative on DPP Prez Tsai on a personal level was the main reason I think) she has shifted to light green (Two China) and recently has become a hybrid One China/Two China by promising a loose confederation or EU-type arrangement between PRC and ROC as the way out.  

I remember in the early 2000s DPP VP Lu was negative on Tsai (who recently joined the DPP administration as the head of the Mainland Affairs Council) for being light blue and not anti-PRC enough.  Now Lu's on position has shifted radically to become even bluer than Tsai's.

[jaichind]

This entire move with the new DPP PM Chen shows when in June 2022 Chen joined the DPP and Tsai claimed that she had nothing to do with it was total hogwash.

陳建仁(Chen Chien-jen) who was an independent that was DPP Prez Tsai VP during her first term of 2016-2020 joins DPP.  陳建仁(Chen Chien-jen) was a pro-DPP academic whose father actually was the leader of the pro-KMT White faction and the KMT county magistrate of 高雄縣(Kaoshiung County) in the 1950s that ran in 2016 with Tsai only because Tsai wanted to appeal to political independents.   

It is weird that while in retirement Chen decides to join DPP.  Most likely Tsai wants him to run in the 2024 DPP primary.  Tsai above all else wants to block DPP VP Lai who ran against her in the 2020 DPP primary from winning the 2024 DPP nomination.  In theory, Tsai's man is the current 桃園市(Taoyuan City) mayor 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-tsan).    One logical theory is that Tsai is fearful that the KMT will win the election for mayor of 桃園市(Taoyuan City) later this year and the blame will fall on 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-tsan).  If so then Tsai would need a backup plan to block Lai and it seems that will be former VP 陳建仁(Chen Chien-jen). 

It this is what Tsai is up to then it is against the interest of DPP.  It is clear that Lai would be the strongest DPP candidate in 2024.  If Lai runs for DPP I would rate 2024 lean DPP.  If Lai does not run for DPP in 2024 I would rate 2024 lean KMT.

It is clear now that Tsai's plan was for Chen to run for DPP in 2024 if they did well in the 2022 local elections.  And if the DPP did poorly in the 2022 local elections which was the case then Chen can be used as PM as a way to threaten Lai.  Tsai accepts that she cannot stop Lai from getting the DPP nomination for 2024 but what she can do is have the PM be Chen who can always hold back administrative support for Lai to threaten his chances.  This way a balance of terror will exist between Tsai and Lai.

[jaichind]

Minister 林右昌 (Lin Yu-Chang) rejects mayor 林右昌 (Lin Yu-Chang).

林右昌 (Lin Yu-chang) was the DPP mayor of 基隆市(Keelung City) during 2014-2022.  Due to the DPP non-nuclear policy the ROC has to massively expand its ability to import LNG (which also makes a PRC naval blockade of ROC that much more effective in the future).   基隆市(Keelung City) was selected to be one of the spots to install an LNG terminal.  This decision is very unpopular in  基隆市(Keelung City) and was starting to hurt DPP chances in the 2022 local elections.  Under pressure mayor 林右昌 (Lin Yu-Chang) decided to push for a city wide referendum on this topic.  One of  林右昌 (Lin Yu-Chang) last acts last year as mayor was to submit this request to hold a referendum to the ROC Ministry of Interior.

As part of cabinet reshuffle  林右昌 (Lin Yu-Chang) was installed as the new Minister of Interior.  One of his first acts is to reject his own proposal as mayor on a  基隆市(Keelung City) referendum on the topic of adding a LNG terminal.    The reason is obvious.  The entire request was always a gimmick to help DPP chances in 2022 local elections and that the DPP regime never had any intentions of not installing the new LNG terminal in  基隆市(Keelung City).

But we do get the result "Minister 林右昌 (Lin Yu-Chang) rejects mayor 林右昌 (Lin Yu-Chang)."

[jaichind]

Various media outlets indicate that the most likely DPP VP candidate would be 蕭美琴 (Hsiao Bi-Khim) who is the current ROC representative in the USA


It is customary in the DPP for the Prez and VP candidate to be balanced on a gender basis.  On the KMT side, it is mostly about the balance between Hoklo and Mainlander.  So if Hou, a Hoklo, is the KMT candidate then his VP will for sure be a Mainlander while if Guo, a Mainlander, is the KMT candidate then his VP will for sure be a Hoklo (like Ko for example.)

Hsiao is half-American on her mother's side. Her father is very high up in the ROC Presbyterian hierarchy.  The Presbyterian Church on ROC has been a long-time opponent of KMT and a proponent of Taiwan's Independence.  Hsiao was a rising star in the DPP in the late 1990s and was close to DPP Prez Chen but had bad relationships with DPP VP Lu (notice a pattern here, DPP VP Lu does not get along with other women politicians like DPP Prez Tsai.)  She did not get past the DPP primary to run for MP in 2008 and when to Deep Blue 花蓮縣)Hualien County) to try to get elected there.  She finally succeeded in getting elected in the 2016 DPP wave but lost in 2020 to a local kingpin KMT rebel.  She was always close to DPP Prez Tsai and after her defeat in 2020, she was sent to be the ROC representative to the USA.   Her being half-American clearly helped her in that role.  She will be coming back to ROC with the latest round of cabinet re-shuffle and it is said that it is almost certain that she will be the DPP VP candidate.

[jaichind]

There is still chaos in the anti-DPP camp.  It is clear that TPP leader Ko will want and need to run or else his TPP will get crushed in the 2024 legislative PR vote even if his chances of winning are very low.  The KMT cannot figure out if they should try to work Guo into the KMT primary.  This also means Hou is holding back on announcing his candidacy since a process has not been worked out yet.  This delay has led to a rise in support for Ko and TPP amount of impatient KMT-TPP marginal voters.  And Ko gaining ground makes it even more difficult for KMT Chairperson Chu to figure out how the KMT primary should work which in turn drives up support for Ko.

I think in the end of the KMT figures it can win a 3-way race they will go with Hou.  If they want a lock then they should go with Guo to try to get a Guo-Ko ticket.  A Hou-Ko ticket is very unlikely.  KMT Chairperson Chu has the incentive to try to get Guo to run since with Guo's wealth the KMT fundraising issue for 2024 will solve itself if Guo is at the head of the KMT ticket.   I think things will be more clear after the Naoto 2nd district by-election in March.

[jaichind]

It is said that TPP Ko's PRC-ROC position will be
a) The two sides are part of the same family
b) ROC should be equidistant between the two superpowers (USA and PRC)

which is mostly a "Two China" position but with a de facto lean toward PRC.  This is as opposed to DPP Prez Tsai's "Two China" position with a clear anti-PRC lean.