PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm enthusiastically going to support Bob Casey Jr in this race.

[TML]

McCormick will get destroyed, but I don't think Casey will have coattails for Biden as presidency is top of the ticket. I wonder if Luzerne goes blue, but Shapiro winning it by a narrow margin isn't a good sign.

If Casey somehow wins Luzerne, he is likely winning statewide by at least 12-15 points or so.

[politicallefty]

Even in a red tsunami like 2010, I wouldn't bet against Bob Casey. So long as he runs a campaign, I feel good about this race.

[S019]

The way this forum talks about PA you'd think this was MA or CA. Lean D for now, Casey is favored, but this is by no means a sure deal. I also don't know how people can declare Casey safe without knowing the national environment a year from now.

[Tekken_Guy]

McCormick will get destroyed, but I don't think Casey will have coattails for Biden as presidency is top of the ticket. I wonder if Luzerne goes blue, but Shapiro winning it by a narrow margin isn't a good
sign.

If Biden’s losing nationally, it’s more likely that he drags down Casey and the latter ends up winning by less than Fetterman did.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

The way this forum talks about PA you'd think this was MA or CA. Lean D for now, Casey is favored, but this is by no means a sure deal. I also don't know how people can declare Casey safe without knowing the national environment a year from now.

Casey routinely outperforms other Democrats in PA. He's a legacy. He's not going to lose to some nobody generic rich guy who doesn't even live in PA. McCormick may not be as much of a clown as Oz, but he is the same kind of candidate and a further testament to how weak the PA GOP's bench is.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/schwartzbCNBC/status/1704941628689940963

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/maddymcdaniel14/status/1705207418290929947

[Oryxslayer]

The way this forum talks about PA you'd think this was MA or CA. Lean D for now, Casey is favored, but this is by no means a sure deal. I also don't know how people can declare Casey safe without knowing the national environment a year from now.

Casey routinely outperforms other Democrats in PA. He's a legacy. He's not going to lose to some nobody generic rich guy who doesn't even live in PA. McCormick may not be as much of a clown as Oz, but he is the same kind of candidate and a further testament to how weak the PA GOP's bench is.

The other thing is PA is in the top 5 states (it fluctuates but remains up there) by number of residents who were born there. In some states like AZ, CA, and FL, we have concrete examples of carpetbagging being a nonfactor. But it is a noticeable and clear detriment at the other end of spectrum, which is why Fetterman's team spent so much of their campaign on the New Jersey attack. So a repetition of the issue versus a better positioned and incumbent Dem is not going to go well.

Tangentially, everything said above also can potentially apply to Michigan, whose population is also among the most sedentary,  but we have to wait for the primaries for clarity.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The way this forum talks about PA you'd think this was MA or CA. Lean D for now, Casey is favored, but this is by no means a sure deal. I also don't know how people can declare Casey safe without knowing the national environment a year from now.

I do think Casey’s brand can be deconstructed, but you cannot convince me McCormick is the guy to do it.

[S019]

The way this forum talks about PA you'd think this was MA or CA. Lean D for now, Casey is favored, but this is by no means a sure deal. I also don't know how people can declare Casey safe without knowing the national environment a year from now.

I do think Casey’s brand can be deconstructed, but you cannot convince me McCormick is the guy to do it.

Well I don't think Casey loses unless Republicans win PA by at least 2-3. However, that is not a scenario that can be ruled out this far out especially with the risk of a EU recession dragging the global economy down.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

The way this forum talks about PA you'd think this was MA or CA. Lean D for now, Casey is favored, but this is by no means a sure deal. I also don't know how people can declare Casey safe without knowing the national environment a year from now.

My brother in Christ McCormick is literally from Connecticut

[DaleCooper]

The fact that the GOP thinks McCormick is a good recruit is more telling than anything here. Nominating him against Casey is tantamount to surrendering this Senate seat entirely, as far as I am concerned.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The way this forum talks about PA you'd think this was MA or CA. Lean D for now, Casey is favored, but this is by no means a sure deal. I also don't know how people can declare Casey safe without knowing the national environment a year from now.

My brother in Christ McCormick is literally from Connecticut

He desperately wants the rust belt to be lean r and the sunbelt to be lean D even though it’s pretty obvious we are a long ways away from that

[Epaminondas]

How early in the 2020 cycle did Stacy Garrity announce for Treasurer?

Does it bode well for her that by October she seems to have attracted no significant opposition, while DeFoor has attracted lots of attention and a top-tier opponent?

[wbrocks67]

How early in the 2020 cycle did Stacy Garrity announce for Treasurer?

Does it bode well for her that by October she seems to have attracted no significant opposition, while DeFoor has attracted lots of attention and a top-tier opponent?

Where has DeFoor attracted lots of attention? The only attention I've seen has been in Kenyatta, his opponent.

I imagine it's just because Treasurer is probably the 'lowest' statewide seat. Garrity should be an easy one to beat, given she's literally pro-1/6.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The fact that the GOP thinks McCormick is a good recruit is more telling than anything here. Nominating him against Casey is tantamount to surrendering this Senate seat entirely, as far as I am concerned.

Even stranger is McConnell treating him like the best pickup opportunity that isn't WV/OH/MT. AZ/NV aside, are they that bearish on Wisconsin or the Michigan open seat?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

How early in the 2020 cycle did Stacy Garrity announce for Treasurer?

Does it bode well for her that by October she seems to have attracted no significant opposition, while DeFoor has attracted lots of attention and a top-tier opponent?

Where has DeFoor attracted lots of attention? The only attention I've seen has been in Kenyatta, his opponent.

I imagine it's just because Treasurer is probably the 'lowest' statewide seat. Garrity should be an easy one to beat, given she's literally pro-1/6.

Nonsense wbrocks People don't care about election denialism, just ask Governor Kari Lake and Congressman JR Majewski etc /s

[wbrocks67]

It's like Oz all over again.

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1705914475755213120

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

me @ Lawrence Tabas

[Sir Mohamed]

It's like Oz all over again.

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1705914475755213120

LOL... the GOP is so bad at this.

[Vosem]

The fact that the GOP thinks McCormick is a good recruit is more telling than anything here. Nominating him against Casey is tantamount to surrendering this Senate seat entirely, as far as I am concerned.

Even stranger is McConnell treating him like the best pickup opportunity that isn't WV/OH/MT. AZ/NV aside, are they that bearish on Wisconsin or the Michigan open seat?

MI/WI haven't really had a moment like PA-2020, when you had nobody Republicans who essentially didn't run campaigns beating serious Democrats in a D+5 national environment by comfortable margins. If you think Oz/Mastriano were uniquely weak -- and they were, although for different reasons* -- then maybe PA really is the fourth likeliest pickup opportunity after the obvious ones. My guess would be NV, though.

Casey normally runs about 4 points ahead of whatever the Democratic baseline is -- he was 4 points ahead of Obama in 2012, and then 4 points ahead of House Democrats in 2018 -- but he's never been treated by Republicans as a frontline target, so you could always have a Bill Nelson moment. He's also never run with Trump on the ballot, and in general Republican challengers tend to out-perform Trump.

I continue to be generically skeptical of carpetbagging as an attack on candidates**, which I think very rarely works at all and which can always be easily defused by veterans. I guess I haven't seen much of McCormick leaning into his Gulf War service, but he really should be doing that. Also it's a risky line of attack for congressional incumbents, because it's basically always easy for a motivated person to find evidence that they actually live in Virginia whenever Congress is in session and then present that as "they've lost touch".***

*Mastriano in the general populist way which misunderstands what Republican voters care about, Oz in a much more unique way where he was one of the most hated Senate candidates of the last few cycles.
**If there is anywhere it works, though, then it's PA, which either has the largest percentage of residents born in-state or is second to WV. Notably WV Democrats have had some notable over-performances running against people obviously not from the state, but Republican primary voters have just absolutely never cared, anywhere -- which is interesting to me.
***Incidentally this worked for Casey against Santorum back in the day, so maybe Casey is particularly inclined to try this line of attack again. I really don't think it generally works, though.

[Senator Incitatus]

Not that it matters to anyone else, but this is a place where I would probably support the Democratic nominee. I guess we’ll see how the campaign goes, but McCormick doesn’t even seem to want to try to distance himself from the worst aspects of his industry and is instead going to run as a throwback to the Republican Party at its worst. He has a lot of apologizing to do before he’d get my vote, and Casey isn’t really offensive enough to justify a third party vote.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Not that it matters to anyone else, but this is a place where I would probably support the Democratic nominee. I guess we’ll see how the campaign goes, but McCormick doesn’t even seem to want to try to distance himself from the worst aspects of his industry and is instead going to run as a throwback to the Republican Party at its worst. He has a lot of apologizing to do before he’d get my vote, and Casey isn’t really offensive enough to justify a third party vote.

Same. McCormick is just too far for me.

[Real Texan Politics]

You know it amazes me how republicans are so quick to unite behind Dave McCormick, but weren't willing to do the same in just about every battleground race (except Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada) last year.

Hell, even this year we've got a three-way divided primary in Ohio, and a (soon to be) two-way divided primary in Montana, two of the most important senate elections next year that republicans cannot take back the senate without.