PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[S019]

No idea how McCormick is a weak candidate, but he probably isn’t strong enough to beat Casey. The GOP can do a lot worse here (imagine running Scott Perry lol), but this is Lean D until evidence arises otherwise, Casey has a history of outrunning the top of the ticket.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRWarren/status/1647989826094784512?cxt=HHwWgICznf6A69...

Former US Representative Keith Rothfus (perhaps best known for losing by double digits to Conor Lamb) is considering a bid.

[S019]

Doug just announced on Facebook that he will NOT be running for Senate.

I’m shocked, honestly. I was totally convinced he was building hype so he could leverage a run for Senate. Pretty good troll job to get people this hype for a generic campaign speech about “freedom” while also not running for anything. More proof that this clown is deeply unserious and only about attention for himself.

I guess just like Lake it is easier just to grift than actually achieve anything, but grifting honestly describes the entire MAGA movement. The nomination has to be McCormick’s to lose now.

[S019]

There's a tiny part of me that thinks this is unfortunate; Mastriano would've lost a head-to-head primary to McCormick and the contrast would've been very helpful. In general, Republicans who beat high-profile further-right primary opponents in 2022 tended to overperform (even when they themselves were too far to the right for their constituency -- consider Lee Zeldin beating Andrew Giuliani here).

That said, McCormick should be able to sew up the nomination now and will be able to personally outspend Casey. The most recent poll (which, if anything, had some modestly unfavorable assumptions for Republicans) had him down only 5 in spite of a name recognition shortfall. Clearly a winnable race in an environment as good or better than 2020.

I think it’s winnable for sure, but I’m starting it at Lean D for now. My guess is Biden+1 and Casey+4-5 in the end. I think Republicans will want to win PA by 2-3 to make this a true tossup, which they definitely could, especially if there is a recession.

Sad! I hope literally anyone else runs and defeats McCormick because he's even worse than Pat Toomey. Socially liberal poor-hating wall street fatcats don't belong in the Republican party and should be eliminated even if it means losing general elections.
If McCormick does win the primary I will be openly supporting Bob Casey Jr.

Do you promise that McCormick will be socially liberal and vote to the left of Toomey (who by the way was elected as a Tea Party hero and was only ever liberal on gun control)? Why do MAGA Republicans make non-MAGA Republicans sound so good?

[S019]

McCormick is not as bad as this forum thinks, sure he isn't favored or even an even bet to win, but a lot of that is down to the fact that Casey is a long-time incumbent who is widely expected to outperform the top of the ticket yet again. That said, I think these delusions that Casey will win even if Republicans win PA by 9 are absurd and a bit of wish casting, especially when these same people think that people like Kathy Barnette would be a strong candidate.

[S019]

The way this forum talks about PA you'd think this was MA or CA. Lean D for now, Casey is favored, but this is by no means a sure deal. I also don't know how people can declare Casey safe without knowing the national environment a year from now.

[S019]

The way this forum talks about PA you'd think this was MA or CA. Lean D for now, Casey is favored, but this is by no means a sure deal. I also don't know how people can declare Casey safe without knowing the national environment a year from now.

I do think Casey’s brand can be deconstructed, but you cannot convince me McCormick is the guy to do it.

Well I don't think Casey loses unless Republicans win PA by at least 2-3. However, that is not a scenario that can be ruled out this far out especially with the risk of a EU recession dragging the global economy down.

[S019]

Let’s not overreact here, even Romney only lost by 5 and that was before a realignment in rural Pennsylvania. He could definitely lose by around 5 in the end, but if he is losing by 10, Biden has won re-election and improved substantially on 2020.