PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

McCormick was polling poorly in most of the polling and overperformed. Period. But that'd beside the point
Mastriano literally lost by over more than twice than Trump did in 2020. He is now a proven lover, which I might add he was NOT in summer 2022. McCormick will have plenty of money, lots endorsements and massive establishment backing against someone who didn't even campaign at all in the general election.
If yall think Republicans are going to eternally nominate crazy people, you are going to be disappointed.

OK, then I guess we should stop treating Trump as the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.

This but unironically(he can at least argue that he one once tbf, but still I think he might crash)

[President Johnson]

McCormick was polling poorly in most of the polling and overperformed. Period. But that'd beside the point
Mastriano literally lost by over more than twice than Trump did in 2020. He is now a proven lover, which I might add he was NOT in summer 2022. McCormick will have plenty of money, lots endorsements and massive establishment backing against someone who didn't even campaign at all in the general election.
If yall think Republicans are going to eternally nominate crazy people, you are going to be disappointed.

OK, then I guess we should stop treating Trump as the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.

This but unironically(he can at least argue that he one once tbf, but still I think he might crash)

Lmao, as of now he's the overwhelming favorite. He's leading by margins in the 30s and 40s over his closest rival.

If Mastriano jumps in, I guess he'll be the nominee.

[wbrocks67]

McCormick was polling poorly in most of the polling and overperformed. Period. But that'd beside the point
Mastriano literally lost by over more than twice than Trump did in 2020. He is now a proven lover, which I might add he was NOT in summer 2022. McCormick will have plenty of money, lots endorsements and massive establishment backing against someone who didn't even campaign at all in the general election.
If yall think Republicans are going to eternally nominate crazy people, you are going to be disappointed.

Mastriano was the one that overperformed in the primary. He basically had no money and had plenty of rivals who did and still got 45% of the vote. McCormick didn't really overperform that much. Him and Oz were both around the same in most of the polls, so both basically just scooped up the same amount of undecided vote

[wbrocks67]

Looks like Mastriano will finally be making his definitive announcement either way tomorrow. Again, anything can happen, but seems weird he'd schedule a meeting days in advance just to say he's not running.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Doug just announced on Facebook that he will NOT be running for Senate.

I’m shocked, honestly. I was totally convinced he was building hype so he could leverage a run for Senate. Pretty good troll job to get people this hype for a generic campaign speech about “freedom” while also not running for anything. More proof that this clown is deeply unserious and only about attention for himself.

[S019]

Doug just announced on Facebook that he will NOT be running for Senate.

I’m shocked, honestly. I was totally convinced he was building hype so he could leverage a run for Senate. Pretty good troll job to get people this hype for a generic campaign speech about “freedom” while also not running for anything. More proof that this clown is deeply unserious and only about attention for himself.

I guess just like Lake it is easier just to grift than actually achieve anything, but grifting honestly describes the entire MAGA movement. The nomination has to be McCormick’s to lose now.

[Zedonathin2020]

Doug just announced on Facebook that he will NOT be running for Senate.

I’m shocked, honestly. I was totally convinced he was building hype so he could leverage a run for Senate. Pretty good troll job to get people this hype for a generic campaign speech about “freedom” while also not running for anything. More proof that this clown is deeply unserious and only about attention for himself.

Wow, it appears he’s not as stupid as I thought he was.


The race has moved from Safe D to around high lean to low likely

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Sad! I hope literally anyone else runs and defeats McCormick because he's even worse than Pat Toomey. Socially liberal poor-hating wall street fatcats don't belong in the Republican party and should be eliminated even if it means losing general elections.
If McCormick does win the primary I will be openly supporting Bob Casey Jr.

[JMT]

I’m not that surprised that Mastriano decided not to run. When he ran for Governor in 2022, he didn’t have to give up his state senate seat. If he ran for U.S. Senate this year, he’d have to give up his seat. So why make a long shot (at best) run against Bob Casey when you could instead likely win re-election to the seat you currently hold?

[Gracile]

Casey is still the strong favorite, regardless of the GOP nominee.

[Vosem]

There's a tiny part of me that thinks this is unfortunate; Mastriano would've lost a head-to-head primary to McCormick and the contrast would've been very helpful. In general, Republicans who beat high-profile further-right primary opponents in 2022 tended to overperform (even when they themselves were too far to the right for their constituency -- consider Lee Zeldin beating Andrew Giuliani here).

That said, McCormick should be able to sew up the nomination now and will be able to personally outspend Casey. The most recent poll (which, if anything, had some modestly unfavorable assumptions for Republicans) had him down only 5 in spite of a name recognition shortfall. Clearly a winnable race in an environment as good or better than 2020.

I’m not that surprised that Mastriano decided not to run. When he ran for Governor in 2022, he didn’t have to give up his state senate seat. If he ran for U.S. Senate this year, he’d have to give up his seat. So why make a long shot (at best) run against Bob Casey when you could instead likely win re-election to the seat you currently hold?

I believe he had also intimidated that he would take the primary performance of his chosen state Supreme Court candidate, Patricia McCullough, as an indicator of his popularity in the PAGOP. McCullough did better-than-expected to some extent, but she still lost 46-54 to a more moderate candidate, so that can't have been a strong sign.

[S019]

There's a tiny part of me that thinks this is unfortunate; Mastriano would've lost a head-to-head primary to McCormick and the contrast would've been very helpful. In general, Republicans who beat high-profile further-right primary opponents in 2022 tended to overperform (even when they themselves were too far to the right for their constituency -- consider Lee Zeldin beating Andrew Giuliani here).

That said, McCormick should be able to sew up the nomination now and will be able to personally outspend Casey. The most recent poll (which, if anything, had some modestly unfavorable assumptions for Republicans) had him down only 5 in spite of a name recognition shortfall. Clearly a winnable race in an environment as good or better than 2020.

I think it’s winnable for sure, but I’m starting it at Lean D for now. My guess is Biden+1 and Casey+4-5 in the end. I think Republicans will want to win PA by 2-3 to make this a true tossup, which they definitely could, especially if there is a recession.

Sad! I hope literally anyone else runs and defeats McCormick because he's even worse than Pat Toomey. Socially liberal poor-hating wall street fatcats don't belong in the Republican party and should be eliminated even if it means losing general elections.
If McCormick does win the primary I will be openly supporting Bob Casey Jr.

Do you promise that McCormick will be socially liberal and vote to the left of Toomey (who by the way was elected as a Tea Party hero and was only ever liberal on gun control)? Why do MAGA Republicans make non-MAGA Republicans sound so good?

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

poor-hating wall street fatcats don't belong in the Republican party.

Don't they? Donald Trump himself is a fatcat!

[Epaminondas]

The hero the PA GOP needs is not running.

https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1661891300944117760?s=46

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The hero the PA GOP needed is not running.

https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1661891300944117760?s=46

Mastriano isn’t the nominee they need; he’s the nominee they deserve.

[oldtimer]

There's a tiny part of me that thinks this is unfortunate; Mastriano would've lost a head-to-head primary to McCormick and the contrast would've been very helpful. In general, Republicans who beat high-profile further-right primary opponents in 2022 tended to overperform (even when they themselves were too far to the right for their constituency -- consider Lee Zeldin beating Andrew Giuliani here).

That said, McCormick should be able to sew up the nomination now and will be able to personally outspend Casey. The most recent poll (which, if anything, had some modestly unfavorable assumptions for Republicans) had him down only 5 in spite of a name recognition shortfall. Clearly a winnable race in an environment as good or better than 2020.

I’m not that surprised that Mastriano decided not to run. When he ran for Governor in 2022, he didn’t have to give up his state senate seat. If he ran for U.S. Senate this year, he’d have to give up his seat. So why make a long shot (at best) run against Bob Casey when you could instead likely win re-election to the seat you currently hold?

I believe he had also intimidated that he would take the primary performance of his chosen state Supreme Court candidate, Patricia McCullough, as an indicator of his popularity in the PAGOP. McCullough did better-than-expected to some extent, but she still lost 46-54 to a more moderate candidate, so that can't have been a strong sign.

According to the polls McCormick would lose to Casey by double digits.

I have doubts that McCormick is going to win the nomination anyway, that 80% of the anti-liberal GOP primary vote is going to gravitate to a less liberal option.

McCormick is just not popular enough to win a popularity contest.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Well, this definitely opens the gates for another crazy to get in, though I don't think there's anyone left who's as high profile as Mastriano or Barnette (who is also out on this race iirc)

Most of the establishment will coalesce around McCormick either way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't matter Trump is gonna be the nominee especially in 303 states Trump is the Masteiano, McCormick like other Rs would have been advanced in the Midterms no Trump that's why DeSantis and DeWine and Vance won no Trump, Trump is on the ballot

[Progressive Pessimist]

That's a slight shame, but Casey should still be able to beat McCormick by at least the high single digits.

[free my dawg]

Oh no! Guess they'll have to run the checks notes

hedge fund manager who moved here to run for Senate

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Oh no! Guess they'll have to run the checks notes

hedge fund manager who moved here to run for Senate

But it went so well when they tried it with the quack tv doctor!

[Zedonathin2020]

Oh no! Guess they'll have to run the checks notes

hedge fund manager who moved here to run for Senate

But it went so well when they tried it with the quack tv doctor!

Yeah I heard it went so good for the GOP that they’re already trying to recruit Dr. Phil to run for Senate in Ohio.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 4 percentage pts Unemployment Casey isn't losing

[Ricardian1485]

Is McCormick really the best the establishment Republicans can do?

If they're dead set on nominating a phony hedge fund executive couldn't they have found one that wasn't a carpetbagger?

The carpetbagger attack hurt Oz last time and I dont see why it wont be at least partially effective this time, and McCormick is easy to paint as an elitist.

Pennsylvania is a huge state, there are tons of Republicans who are immune to both attacks. I get that someone like Fitzpatrick could never win the primary, but why isn't the establishment uniting behind someone better than McCormick?

[Continential]

Is McCormick really the best the establishment Republicans can do?

If they're dead set on nominating a phony hedge fund executive couldn't they have found one that wasn't a carpetbagger?

The carpetbagger attack hurt Oz last time and I dont see why it wont be at least partially effective this time, and McCormick is easy to paint as an elitist.

Pennsylvania is a huge state, there are tons of Republicans who are immune to both attacks. I get that someone like Fitzpatrick could never win the primary, but why isn't the establishment uniting behind someone better than McCormick?

Who else is there? I doubt any of the House Rs want to lose their seats for a probable loss, and the State Officers are running for re-election, and so that leaves McCormick.