MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1689597613522202624

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe Slotkin

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1689597613522202624

This race moves to Lean R if he is the nominee. Hopefully he forgets to get enough signatures again!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1689597613522202624

This race moves to Lean R if he is the nominee. Hopefully he forgets to get enough signatures again!

I wouldn’t say Lean R but yeah if he can get enough signatures, this is more likely than PA and even WI

[wbrocks67]

I frankly don't see how James Craig moves the race at all. The ads write themselves, he barely was competent enough to get on the ballot in 2022, how could he be competent enough for senator? Not to mention, he did among the worst in the Emerson ballot test this week, losing to Slotkin by 7%.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

From his Wiki article;

On September 14, 2021, Craig attempted to announce his bid for Governor on Belle Isle, but was unable to be heard due to the presence of protestors who surrounded him on the podium, chanting "No justice, no peace, James Craig is still police."

In October 2021, Craig faced criticism after reporting revealed that he was never certified as a police officer in Michigan while serving as Detroit Police Chief.

They’re not sending their best!

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

From his Wiki article;

On September 14, 2021, Craig attempted to announce his bid for Governor on Belle Isle, but was unable to be heard due to the presence of protestors who surrounded him on the podium, chanting "No justice, no peace, James Craig is still police."

In October 2021, Craig faced criticism after reporting revealed that he was never certified as a police officer in Michigan while serving as Detroit Police Chief.

They’re not sending their best!

These two quotes juxtaposed together is so. f--king. funny. James Craig can't "still" be the police if he never was in the first place!!!!!

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Probably just me, but I think Slotkin should consider dropping out and running for reelection instead.

If Harper runs a progressive enough campaign, she will lose the primary, as black voters+progressives is enough to win the primary.

Not a chance.  He’ll be lucky to crack 10% in the primary.

A point I've made before is there's this bizarre mindset that Democrats are just as obsessed with celebrity candidates as Republicans are when with the obvious exception of Al Franken, it's very difficult to come up with any examples of them nominating one. If we include professional athletes you could count Heath Shuler although that was now quite awhile ago, and currently Colin Allred, but he was nominated largely on his legal work and work with the Obama Administration instead of his sports career (he didn't even play for a team popular in the area he represents.) After that the only example I can think of is John Hall who played in some B-tier yacht rock band that was mildly popular in the 70s and served two terms as very generic D backbencher in the House from 2007-2011. I'm sure if you dug hard enough you could find something like a State Senator somewhere who was on a reality TV show like 15 years ago, but regardless the point is clear.

Bill Bradley? Though that was also quite a long time ago.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Whitmer would have beaten Craig, and I definitely think Slotkin can too.

[SnowLabrador]

Tossup. This seat is more likely to flip than Nevada if Craig is the nominee.

[ShadowRocket]

I'll be surprised if Slotkin doesn't prevail at the end of the day.  Rogers is old news, Craig is over hyped, and Meijer wont be able to win the primary.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wasn't Craig the guy who tried to forge signatures?

Seems incompetent, and if he were the nominee I feel confident in saying he'd underperform Trump unless Slotkin has some big skeleton.

I have no clue why anyone here are saying this guy would be a strong GOP nominee. Having the status of being a veteran of a police officer means zilch if you're just a bad candidate (i.e. Doug Mastriano was a former military officer, that certainly didn't help him in the end).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna spend money behind our 303 candidates it's not like he is gonna leave SLOTKIN or Baldwin behind with these two Craig and Clarke, so I am not that worried Trump only works the Red states anyways

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

He's not great, but Craig is the best Republicans have in this terrible field.

[SnowLabrador]

Craig definitely makes this a tossup. It'll track closely with the presidential race, with Craig maybe doing a point or two better than Trump. We'll see.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Slotkin is the best candidate we have and she will win once the primary is over and it's a D v R  head to head, Ds flipped the state legislature you can't imagine Ds losing MI

[Tekken_Guy]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

[Tekken_Guy]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

That isn’t true at all. I can’t imagine why voters would punish Biden for economic discontent yet spare downballot Dems.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

That isn’t true at all. I can’t imagine why voters would punish Biden for economic discontent yet spare downballot Dems.

They did that in 2022. Polls consistently showed Trump outrunning Oz for example. Democratic Senate candidates often won about half of the people who somewhat disapprove of Biden. I doubt Biden wins that much.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

You’re neglecting how bad Republican has been and continues to be. Yea a lot are frustrated with the economy, but when your other option is to make it worse or just ignores it expect to critique the president, and spend most of their energy on lambasting popular social policies while calling your vote illegitimate, it’s not a very appealing alternative.

[wbrocks67]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

That isn’t true at all. I can’t imagine why voters would punish Biden for economic discontent yet spare downballot Dems.

They did that in 2022. Polls consistently showed Trump outrunning Oz for example. Democratic Senate candidates often won about half of the people who somewhat disapprove of Biden. I doubt Biden wins that much.

Or maybe - just maybe - somewhat disapproving of Biden just means "eh im not that happy with Biden, but I'm not certainly not voting for any Republican right now"

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

That isn’t true at all. I can’t imagine why voters would punish Biden for economic discontent yet spare downballot Dems.

They did that in 2022. Polls consistently showed Trump outrunning Oz for example. Democratic Senate candidates often won about half of the people who somewhat disapprove of Biden. I doubt Biden wins that much.

Or maybe - just maybe - somewhat disapproving of Biden just means "eh im not that happy with Biden, but I'm not certainly not voting for any Republican right now"

That's not really true. Voters generally approved of Democratic incumbents (Kelly, Cortez-Masto, etc.) by wide margins, and in fact those incumbents underperformed their favorability gap with their Republican opponents (who often had favorabilities over 20 points worse).

However Biden is NOT popular and his favorability gap between him and Trump is WAY less than the major candidates in 2022.

[Tekken_Guy]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

That isn’t true at all. I can’t imagine why voters would punish Biden for economic discontent yet spare downballot Dems.

They did that in 2022. Polls consistently showed Trump outrunning Oz for example. Democratic Senate candidates often won about half of the people who somewhat disapprove of Biden. I doubt Biden wins that much.

Or maybe - just maybe - somewhat disapproving of Biden just means "eh im not that happy with Biden, but I'm not certainly not voting for any Republican right now"

That's not really true. Voters generally approved of Democratic incumbents (Kelly, Cortez-Masto, etc.) by wide margins, and in fact those incumbents underperformed their favorability gap with their Republican opponents (who often had favorabilities over 20 points worse).

However Biden is NOT popular and his favorability gap between him and Trump is WAY less than the major candidates in 2022.

And that doesn’t mean those people won’t come around to him. Trump won over a lot of people who didn’t like him in 2020.

And one other thing is that Biden may not be popular but he isn’t really hated the way Trump is.