MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

That isn’t true at all. I can’t imagine why voters would punish Biden for economic discontent yet spare downballot Dems.

They did that in 2022. Polls consistently showed Trump outrunning Oz for example. Democratic Senate candidates often won about half of the people who somewhat disapprove of Biden. I doubt Biden wins that much.

Or maybe - just maybe - somewhat disapproving of Biden just means "eh im not that happy with Biden, but I'm not certainly not voting for any Republican right now"

That's not really true. Voters generally approved of Democratic incumbents (Kelly, Cortez-Masto, etc.) by wide margins, and in fact those incumbents underperformed their favorability gap with their Republican opponents (who often had favorabilities over 20 points worse).

However Biden is NOT popular and his favorability gap between him and Trump is WAY less than the major candidates in 2022.

And that doesn’t mean those people won’t come around to him. Trump won over a lot of people who didn’t like him in 2020.

And one other thing is that Biden may not be popular but he isn’t really hated the way Trump is.

I'm not saying those people may not come around to him. I'm saying that Democrat incumbent Senators underperformed their approvals significantly, which means that there is no evidence yet that Biden WILL win over voters who disapprove of him. I'm not saying it won't happen, it may even be likely, but 2022 was not evidence for it, unlike many believe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol we flipped the state Legislature from R to D that's proof enough and Slotkin won be fine

Why is SLOTKIN gonna be fine because the state legislature is gonna remain D not R same with PA when we flipped the state H

[ProgressiveModerate]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

That isn’t true at all. I can’t imagine why voters would punish Biden for economic discontent yet spare downballot Dems.

They did that in 2022. Polls consistently showed Trump outrunning Oz for example. Democratic Senate candidates often won about half of the people who somewhat disapprove of Biden. I doubt Biden wins that much.

Or maybe - just maybe - somewhat disapproving of Biden just means "eh im not that happy with Biden, but I'm not certainly not voting for any Republican right now"

That's not really true. Voters generally approved of Democratic incumbents (Kelly, Cortez-Masto, etc.) by wide margins, and in fact those incumbents underperformed their favorability gap with their Republican opponents (who often had favorabilities over 20 points worse).

However Biden is NOT popular and his favorability gap between him and Trump is WAY less than the major candidates in 2022.

And that doesn’t mean those people won’t come around to him. Trump won over a lot of people who didn’t like him in 2020.

And one other thing is that Biden may not be popular but he isn’t really hated the way Trump is.

I'm not saying those people may not come around to him. I'm saying that Democrat incumbent Senators underperformed their approvals significantly, which means that there is no evidence yet that Biden WILL win over voters who disapprove of him. I'm not saying it won't happen, it may even be likely, but 2022 was not evidence for it, unlike many believe.

Good chance incumbent D Senators approval will go down once campaign season kicks in, all the attack ads start, and people revert more to their partisan corners.

Generally though, results should converge pretty close to Presidential partisanship; approval can help give a sense of who outruns and underruns the Pres ticket though.

For instance several polls have shown Jon Tester's approval to be well above 50% even 60%. I think everyone here would agree it's extremely unlikely if not impossible Tester gets 60% of the vote. However, most on here also agree Tester will outrun Biden by at least a few points, in part because of his strong approvals.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

That isn’t true at all. I can’t imagine why voters would punish Biden for economic discontent yet spare downballot Dems.

They did that in 2022. Polls consistently showed Trump outrunning Oz for example. Democratic Senate candidates often won about half of the people who somewhat disapprove of Biden. I doubt Biden wins that much.

Or maybe - just maybe - somewhat disapproving of Biden just means "eh im not that happy with Biden, but I'm not certainly not voting for any Republican right now"

That's not really true. Voters generally approved of Democratic incumbents (Kelly, Cortez-Masto, etc.) by wide margins, and in fact those incumbents underperformed their favorability gap with their Republican opponents (who often had favorabilities over 20 points worse).

However Biden is NOT popular and his favorability gap between him and Trump is WAY less than the major candidates in 2022.

And that doesn’t mean those people won’t come around to him. Trump won over a lot of people who didn’t like him in 2020.

And one other thing is that Biden may not be popular but he isn’t really hated the way Trump is.

I'm not saying those people may not come around to him. I'm saying that Democrat incumbent Senators underperformed their approvals significantly, which means that there is no evidence yet that Biden WILL win over voters who disapprove of him. I'm not saying it won't happen, it may even be likely, but 2022 was not evidence for it, unlike many believe.

Good chance incumbent D Senators approval will go down once campaign season kicks in, all the attack ads start, and people revert more to their partisan corners.

Generally though, results should converge pretty close to Presidential partisanship; approval can help give a sense of who outruns and underruns the Pres ticket though.

For instance several polls have shown Jon Tester's approval to be well above 50% even 60%. I think everyone here would agree it's extremely unlikely if not impossible Tester gets 60% of the vote. However, most on here also agree Tester will outrun Biden by at least a few points, in part because of his strong approvals.

I'm not talking about hypotheticals, I'm saying what did happen in 2022 is that incumbent D Senators underrated their approval significantly, meaning that voters who disapproved of both candidates overwhelmingly backed Republicans in 2022.

[Xing]

Craig isn’t a terrible recruit, but I’d still rate this as Lean D, and I think Slotkin would have to run a pretty weak campaign to underperform Biden.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/detroitnews/status/1696594828606234739?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/detroitnews/status/1696594828606234739?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

Note: Has lived in Florida for some time now and is registered to vote there.

What's with GOP party 'thinkers' and promoting out-of-state candidates these past few cycles...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Emerson has Slotkin easily winning this race against Craig or Mejer

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Still lean D with Mike Rogers in. Slotkin's appeal should not be underestimated.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/detroitnews/status/1696594828606234739?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

Note: Has lived in Florida for some time now and is registered to vote there.

What's with GOP party 'thinkers' and promoting out-of-state candidates these past few cycles...

Cause they can’t find anyone in state whose crazy enough to win a primary

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1696888276446028160

[Sir Mohamed]

What's it lately with all these GOP carpetbaggers?

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1696888276446028160

I don't think Rogers will be favored against Slotkin, but anyone who's been paying attention knows that virtually all GOP politicians oppose abortion rights. I don't see this hurting his chances in a general election, and certainly not in a primary.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Not the worst pick, but the residency thing could be fodder.

At least he is doing this rather than running for president like he flirted with earlier this year.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Craig needs to hurry up before Rogers gains momentum

[SnowLabrador]

Craig needs to hurry up before Rogers gains momentum

If I were Slotkin, I would rather face Rogers.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Craig needs to hurry up before Rogers gains momentum

If I were Slotkin, I would rather face Rogers.

Yes. This is one race where I feel republicans could actually overperform the Presidential nominee. Slotkin is a good candidate but Craig is aesthetically very strong with his police background

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Craig needs to hurry up before Rogers gains momentum

If I were Slotkin, I would rather face Rogers.

She is lead Craig 45/38, I posted it in the Emerson poll I posted Craig is another Elders like Clarke and Baldwin already beaten Tommy Thompson, stop Dooming Casey, Brown, Tester, Baldwin and Slotkin and GALLEGO are gonna win if you are so worried donate 5 to Act blue like I am doing Brown he and Ehr are leading 46/44 on Facebook

It's called voted not polls

[Senator Incitatus]

Not the worst pick, but the residency thing could be fodder.

At least he is doing this rather than running for president like he flirted with earlier this year.

It really depends on what the residency situation actually is. My grandparents have a home in Florida and are registered to vote there, but split time up North and also visit for holidays in between. It would probably be a blunder in the Midwest for attacking someone for living in Florida part of the year, but if he's permanently relocated then that would obviously be potent in proportion to the relocation.

I'm just glad to see the Republican Party is still capable of recruiting legislators to run for Senate after 2022.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Craig needs to hurry up before Rogers gains momentum

If I were Slotkin, I would rather face Rogers.

Yes. This is one race where I feel republicans could actually overperform the Presidential nominee. Slotkin is a good candidate but Craig is aesthetically very strong with his police background

Nah, Craig and Rogers are both weak C-listers

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1697283982008656326

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1697283982008656326

Endorsed if he gets in. I fear he will struggle in a primary

[Galeel]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1697283982008656326

0% chance of winning the primary. He couldn't even beat a total whackjob in his own district as an incumbent.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Lean Slotkin unless something major changes. Probably even if the economy gets in a major recession and Biden gets clobbered at the top of the ticket.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1697283982008656326

0% chance of winning the primary. He couldn't even beat a total whackjob in his own district as an incumbent.

He can win with a plurality if the rest of the field is divided.