MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[Tekken_Guy]

Do we know for sure that Stabenow is running for re-election?

She'll be 74, which is definitely old, but not old enough that it would be weird for her to run. I would think Dems are better off with an incumbent than an open seat, but Stabenow underperformed in 2018, so we'll see. If she doesn't run, Haley Stevens and Elissa Slotkin are the obvious frontrunners.

That or one of the row officers.

[Tekken_Guy]

My pick would be someone in law enforcement for the GOP, ideally without a track record of highly conservative rhetoric or votes. Also, preferably someone who's a fresh face (not james).

Michelle LaJoye-Young seems like a solid candidate, for instance.

Former Detroit Police Commissioner James Craig?

Craig probably should have been the GOP gubernatorial candidate, but he had petition problems. Shameful.

What if Ray Kelly moves to Michigan? Maybe he has a summer lakefront house there?

Kelly actually has a home in Florida (surprise, surprise)..........

Kelly and his son, rightwing commentator Greg Kelly lives in Garden City, a Long Island suburb outside NYC....he probably has an apartment in Manhattan like most elites and I believe he has a Florida home....

Craig could beat Stabenow.

She should retire.

James "botched the paperwork" Craig? He has no future in politics.

[Tekken_Guy]

The way politics works nowadays is if you can work the media, you can jump the line. I see no reason why Mallory McMorrow wouldn't consider running for this seat.

But... after her massive overperformance and constant good press, I don't think anybody else could beat Jocelyn Benson. If she wants it, she'll get it.

One thing is for sure though, it will be a slightly-progressive, slightly-moderate white gurl from the suburbs no matter who it is.

If Stevens runs I’d imagine McMorrow goes for her house seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Reminder that Huizenga's house seat is only Trump +4 and I'm pretty sure Benson won it in the SoS election (other Dems might have come within a point or two as well). It would be a heavy dem target if Huizenga vacated that for a senate run. He's a titan in West Michigan.

Huizenga only won by 11-12 points against a sacrificial lamb. Even with him this seat is worth looking into for Democrats.

[Tekken_Guy]

State Board of Ed member Nikki Snyder is running for senate.

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1626193952021032960?s=20

She’s hardly a top-tier candidate and I don’t expect her to be the nominee.

[Tekken_Guy]

State Board of Ed member Nikki Snyder is running for senate.

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1626193952021032960?s=20

She’s hardly a top-tier candidate and I don’t expect her to be the nominee.

The same thing was said about Tudor Dixon

Dixon only took off after the previous frontrunners were disqualified.

[Tekken_Guy]

I have to say, I have a lot of trepidation about this. Slotkin defending Manchin and Sinema gives me a lot of pause.

What do you mean? She hasn’t voted like them in the house.

[Tekken_Guy]

The bench to replace Slotkin for Democrats is large
-Sam Singh
-Sarah Anthony
-Kara Hope
-Curtis Hertzler
-Andy Schor
-Angela Witwer
-Virg Bernero
-Rosemarie Aquilina (the Larry Nassar judge)

For Republicans I imagine it’s likely Barrett again.

[Tekken_Guy]

Im gonna go ahead and say congratulations to senator-elect Slotkin.

Because let's face it no potential Republican is strong enough to flip this seat and every other big name Democrat has declined.

If Trump wins Michigan, he will probably pull the Republican over the line. Still, I think Slotkin is favored for now.

Trump will not win Michigan. And there’s a realistic chance he loses the primary. (PS DeSantis won’t win it either).

[Tekken_Guy]

Im gonna go ahead and say congratulations to senator-elect Slotkin.

Because let's face it no potential Republican is strong enough to flip this seat and every other big name Democrat has declined.

If Trump wins Michigan, he will probably pull the Republican over the line. Still, I think Slotkin is favored for now.

Trump will not win Michigan. And there’s a realistic chance he loses the primary. (PS DeSantis won’t win it either).

Do you mean DeSantis won't win the primary, or he won't win Michigan in the general?

Won’t win MI in the general.

[Tekken_Guy]

Slotkin is another Sinema in the making... not sure whey Senate Dems are clearing the field for her.

No she is not. The only Sinema-esque person in the house is Josh Gottheimer.

[Tekken_Guy]

BREAKING: Pamela Pugh IN

https://twitter.com/pughmichigan/status/1661076143959871488?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mb...

Endorsed

What do you have against Slotkin?

[Tekken_Guy]

Hopefully Rs nominate a good candidate, John James came within 2% of winning in 2020 and now with no incumbent the seat is absolutely winnable for the GOP. A credible R candidate has the ability to put this race as tossup and its totally worth it especially if Trump manages to win Michigan in 2024. Besides, they have much better chances here than Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota due to the lack of a Dem incumbent.

Trump has less than a 20% chance of winning Michigan honestly. He only carries it if he’s winning nationwide comfortably.

Besides he’s not even guaranteed to be the nominee.

[Tekken_Guy]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

[Tekken_Guy]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

That isn’t true at all. I can’t imagine why voters would punish Biden for economic discontent yet spare downballot Dems.

[Tekken_Guy]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

That isn’t true at all. I can’t imagine why voters would punish Biden for economic discontent yet spare downballot Dems.

They did that in 2022. Polls consistently showed Trump outrunning Oz for example. Democratic Senate candidates often won about half of the people who somewhat disapprove of Biden. I doubt Biden wins that much.

Or maybe - just maybe - somewhat disapproving of Biden just means "eh im not that happy with Biden, but I'm not certainly not voting for any Republican right now"

That's not really true. Voters generally approved of Democratic incumbents (Kelly, Cortez-Masto, etc.) by wide margins, and in fact those incumbents underperformed their favorability gap with their Republican opponents (who often had favorabilities over 20 points worse).

However Biden is NOT popular and his favorability gap between him and Trump is WAY less than the major candidates in 2022.

And that doesn’t mean those people won’t come around to him. Trump won over a lot of people who didn’t like him in 2020.

And one other thing is that Biden may not be popular but he isn’t really hated the way Trump is.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1697283982008656326

0% chance of winning the primary. He couldn't even beat a total whackjob in his own district as an incumbent.

He can win with a plurality if the rest of the field is divided.

[Tekken_Guy]

The GOP field in this race so far has been surprisingly not-bad. Whether it’s enough to overcome the dismal state of the MI GOP and (potentially) the top of the ticket will be seen, but looking more and more like the best GOP pick-up opportunity after WV/MT/OH/NV.

Even more than AZ, where Sinema could play spoiler, and WI, which is traditionally to the right of MI?

[Tekken_Guy]

The GOP field in this race so far has been surprisingly not-bad. Whether it’s enough to overcome the dismal state of the MI GOP and (potentially) the top of the ticket will be seen, but looking more and more like the best GOP pick-up opportunity after WV/MT/OH/NV.

Even more than AZ, where Sinema could play spoiler, and WI, which is traditionally to the right of MI?

1. To the extent Sinema would play spoiler, it would be to the detriment of Lake, not Gallego.

2. WI has more reliable D demographics/D metros than MI or PA and Baldwin an established brand. She’s not unbeatable, but running 2-4 points ahead of Biden will be enough even if the GOP wins the presidency.

Lake is not guaranteed to be the R nominee and we can’t count Masters and Lamb out.

[Tekken_Guy]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

This is still Lean D, given the state of the presidential race in the state.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1719732696186777882

Looks Like Meijer getting in. Would be a strong GE candidate should he get there. (primary will be difficult)

Super weird that this race has multiple solid to decent candidates but there is seemingly no one in WI

Open seat dynamics are naturally better for prospective candidates. If I was the NRSC, I would triage Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and go all in on this race and Ohio in the midwest.

Yeah, Republicans are lucky Stabenow is a decade older than Baldwin and Casey.

[Tekken_Guy]

DOA in the primary

Not really. He has a chance of sneaking through a clown car.

[Tekken_Guy]

LOL yep, absolutely DOA in the primary. Plus look at that whackjob he lost to in his House primary. Shouldn't have even been close.

What is his ceiling in the primary?

[Tekken_Guy]

But…but…but Atlas told me he was an unbeatable titan who only got screwed over by 2022 in a fluke.

One of the GOP's biggest problems is that those Republican candidates who have the potential to reshake the race by creating a different, non-traditional coalition (e.g. Craig) often lack the resources, experience, national support, and (sometimes) simply the seriousness to effectively compete.

Meanwhile, those candidates who are capable of running at least a somewhat serious campaign (e.g. McCormick, Rogers) lack the realization that the GOP has long moved on from whatever it was under Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush and Paul Ryan.

A candidate who combines both can do very well, but they’re few and far between, almost non-existent.

David Clarke is another example in that first category and Hovde in the 2nd one.