MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[Mr. Smith]

I'd argue that Stabenow retiring makes this a tougher pickup for Republicans than if she ran for reelection.

Incumbency is still a net advantage vs an open seat. I'm trying to think of a single senate race that an elected incumbent lost in the general, that would have been better for the incumbent party with an open seat. Even though people like Mark Kirk and Doug Jones got destroyed, they still did better compared to an open seat situation. I had to go back to 2008 to find Ted Stevens.

In a Presidential year I hope, 'cuz I have no doubt anyone else in 2018 defeats Rick Scott and therefore stops DeSantis at the same time.

Also, in a way, Kyrsten Sinema seems lined up to do just that right now, and there is an open challenger in Ruben Gallego.

[Senator Incitatus]

I'd argue that Stabenow retiring makes this a tougher pickup for Republicans than if she ran for reelection.

Incumbency is still a net advantage vs an open seat. I'm trying to think of a single senate race that an elected incumbent lost in the general, that would have been better for the incumbent party with an open seat. Even though people like Mark Kirk and Doug Jones got destroyed, they still did better compared to an open seat situation. I had to go back to 2008 to find Ted Stevens.

Off the top of my head, Bill Roth and Terry Sanford are good precedent. Their age and health issues overrode any incumbency advantage they had. Not sure the same would apply to Stabenow.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'd argue that Stabenow retiring makes this a tougher pickup for Republicans than if she ran for reelection.

Incumbency is still a net advantage vs an open seat. I'm trying to think of a single senate race that an elected incumbent lost in the general, that would have been better for the incumbent party with an open seat. Even though people like Mark Kirk and Doug Jones got destroyed, they still did better compared to an open seat situation. I had to go back to 2008 to find Ted Stevens.

I just think it would have been easier to paint Stabenow as having been in office too long, as if she ran she would be running for Term #5.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Slotkin is such a heavy fav and sonis Casey and Baldwin Trump isn't 1 pt ahead of Biden, Biden is up 3 in Morning Consult

[junior chįmp]

Slotkin is such a heavy fav and sonis Casey and Baldwin Trump isn't 1 pt ahead of Biden, Biden is up 3 in Morning Consult

It's not a 3o3 map

[Aurelius2]

Lol no one wants a long strike

If the strike needs to be long for the auto workers to prevail, so be it. It's clear that Fain is using a strategy of slowly ramping up pressure until he forces concessions. If that takes awhile, it is what it is. It's clear that the Biden administration is happy to let them get ed over if that helps get the auto companies on board with their insanely fast EV goals, and it's equally clear that the companies are happy to use the EV push as an excuse to throw the workers under the bus.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I was curious about Slotkin’s seat and to my surprised it seems everyone has lined up behind Hertel. I was expecting Sarah Anthony is get it, or maybe Schor. Though the Hertel’s have been a long established family in Michigan democratic politics.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1703783131160154426

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1703783131160154426

Man we are in big trouble here. Slottin and DSCC need to be on their A game

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1703783131160154426

Man we are in big trouble here. Slottin and DSCC need to be on their A game

Not really.  This race is Likely D, closer to Safe D than Lean D.  Craig is a really weak candidate and Rogers isn’t much better.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1703783131160154426

Man we are in big trouble here. Slottin and DSCC need to be on their A game

Not really.  This race is Likely D, closer to Safe D than Lean D.  Craig is a really weak candidate and Rogers isn’t much better.

What makes them especially weak?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1703783131160154426

Man we are in big trouble here. Slottin and DSCC need to be on their A game

Not really.  This race is Likely D, closer to Safe D than Lean D.  Craig is a really weak candidate and Rogers isn’t much better.

What makes them especially weak?

Its just X coping lol. I do think Craig is much stronger than Rogers and this race is more viable than AZ at this point

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1703783131160154426

Man we are in big trouble here. Slottin and DSCC need to be on their A game

Not really.  This race is Likely D, closer to Safe D than Lean D.  Craig is a really weak candidate and Rogers isn’t much better.

What makes them especially weak?

Its just X coping lol. I do think Craig is much stronger than Rogers and this race is more viable than AZ at this point

I say this with all due respect, but I seem to recall that when you hand-waived away my 2022 predictions as Democratic cope, I came pretty d*** close to nailing the 2022 election cycle.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's all about turnout we average 65/60M and got 62/60M in 22 it has very little to do with Approvals of Ds get 65 or higher it's a blue wave, and this is a Prez Eday not Midterm

That's why Obama won 60/50M not 100 M votes in 2008 and 330 EC votes in 2012 with 65/60M

[wbrocks67]

There's literally no evidence that Craig is a strong candidate. He couldn't even get on the ballot in 2022, yet he's a strong candidate? Come on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There's literally no evidence that Craig is a strong candidate. He couldn't even get on the ballot in 2022, yet he's a strong candidate? Come on.

I posted the poll it has Slotkin leading Craig 45/38 Emerson

[GALeftist]

I think Craig is probably a fine candidate, but one thing I do wonder is how you can demonize Detroit as a crime-infested hellhole when you were Chief of Police there for so long.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

There's literally no evidence that Craig is a strong candidate. He couldn't even get on the ballot in 2022, yet he's a strong candidate? Come on.

He's literally campaigning for union voters who usually lean democratic. I mean, do you see someone like Tudor Dixon doing this? I'll give you that he has yet to prove he can market but it would take a special level of incompetence to actually not get on the ballot twice. Any person with an iota of common sense would learn from their mistake in that situation and ensure it doesn't happen again.
 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

There's literally no evidence that Craig is a strong candidate. He couldn't even get on the ballot in 2022, yet he's a strong candidate? Come on.

He's literally campaigning for union voters who usually lean democratic. I mean, do you see someone like Tudor Dixon doing this? I'll give you that he has yet to prove he can market but it would take a special level of incompetence to actually not get on the ballot twice. Any person with an iota of common sense would learn from their mistake in that situation and ensure it doesn't happen again.
 

That it happened once speaks to a special kind of incompetence amongst Craig and his team.  And there is nothing special about that tweet.  It won’t win over anyone.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The fact that Slotkin will be the nominee is a tragedy. She is awful. Almost any other democratic politician in the state would have been better.

[SnowLabrador]

The fact that Slotkin will be the nominee is a tragedy. She is awful. Almost any other democratic politician in the state would have been better.

I agree. I wouldn’t be shocked if she actually blows the general election, allowing the GOP to win a U.S. Senate seat from Michigan for the first time since 1994. Think about that.

[wbrocks67]

The fact that Slotkin will be the nominee is a tragedy. She is awful. Almost any other democratic politician in the state would have been better.

She's literally generic D. I don't get the way people twist themselves into pretzels to hate this woman. I'm not even saying this as a ginormous fan of hers; she seems pretty typical mainstream D. Progressives are weirdly obsessed with her.

[Galeel]

The fact that Slotkin will be the nominee is a tragedy. She is awful. Almost any other democratic politician in the state would have been better.

She's literally generic D. I don't get the way people twist themselves into pretzels to hate this woman. I'm not even saying this as a ginormous fan of hers; she seems pretty typical mainstream D. Progressives are weirdly obsessed with her.

She is a former CIA agent and is quite the hawk when it comes to foreign policy. She loves the security state and has always been one of the more conservative Democrats in the house it really doesn't take a genius to see why left wingers don't like her.

[Senator Incitatus]

“Why do people hate this completely generic and mainstream politician?,” he asked, oblivious of the way most people feel about politicians.

[wbrocks67]

“Why do people hate this completely generic and mainstream politician?,” he asked, oblivious of the way most people feel about politicians.

I meant in her voting record and how she presents herself. She's a normie D, maybe a tiny bit more conservative than Gretchen Whitmer, but not by much. People *like* normie Ds, that's why they did so well last year.

Slotkin has already proven herself in a swing district 3 times now. Just because she's not an AOC means that progressives need to hate her? It's so overdramatic. This is still Michigan we're talking about. It's not some uber safe D state.