MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Amash in
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Author Topic: MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Amash in  (Read 28331 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« on: November 13, 2022, 12:16:32 PM »
« edited: February 29, 2024, 11:21:58 AM by GeorgiaModerate »

Looks like we’re starting this already, so why not? It’ll be interesting to see if James goes for a rematch, which I think would give Republicans at least a decent chance here. Otherwise, it’ll probably be a bit of a long shot for them.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2022, 12:18:58 PM »

James would be one of the weaker ones lol. He's ran for office so many times he could end up being off putting like Beto/Crist etc.
They are better off with a non insane state senator who can paint Stabenow as having been in office for too long and is now out of touch
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2022, 02:13:37 PM »

Do we know for sure that Stabenow is running for re-election?
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Not Me, Us
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« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2022, 02:28:04 PM »

Do we know for sure that Stabenow is running for re-election?

She'll be 74, which is definitely old, but not old enough that it would be weird for her to run. I would think Dems are better off with an incumbent than an open seat, but Stabenow underperformed in 2018, so we'll see. If she doesn't run, Haley Stevens and Elissa Slotkin are the obvious frontrunners.
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Dani Rose
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« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2022, 02:30:59 PM »

I'm not going to start making predictions until we're deeper into the next cycle (tempting as it is after I somehow? called? 2022?), but I'm reasonably confident the GOP once again kicks the football into their own face here. They really don't send their best in swing states any more.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2022, 02:39:02 PM »

Do we know for sure that Stabenow is running for re-election?

She'll be 74, which is definitely old, but not old enough that it would be weird for her to run. I would think Dems are better off with an incumbent than an open seat, but Stabenow underperformed in 2018, so we'll see. If she doesn't run, Haley Stevens and Elissa Slotkin are the obvious frontrunners.

That or one of the row officers.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2022, 02:42:10 PM »

Do we know for sure that Stabenow is running for re-election?

She'll be 74, which is definitely old, but not old enough that it would be weird for her to run. I would think Dems are better off with an incumbent than an open seat, but Stabenow underperformed in 2018, so we'll see. If she doesn't run, Haley Stevens and Elissa Slotkin are the obvious frontrunners.
I never want to see Steven's run for anything after the despicable campaign she ran against Levin(and I know he was stupid for not running in the 10th because he would have won there given what we know now, but still)
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Spectator
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« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2022, 02:54:40 PM »

I’m sure James running for Senate is what he and the NRSC want, but it would simultaneously endanger MI-10 which he only barely won and went for every other Democrat statewide easily. Can’t imagine in a 3 seat or less House majority that that would be popular among McCarthy and the likes. Frankly I’m not even sure James would be a strong candidate either.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2022, 02:57:48 PM »

Do we know for sure that Stabenow is running for re-election?

She'll be 74, which is definitely old, but not old enough that it would be weird for her to run. I would think Dems are better off with an incumbent than an open seat, but Stabenow underperformed in 2018, so we'll see. If she doesn't run, Haley Stevens and Elissa Slotkin are the obvious frontrunners.
I never want to see Steven's run for anything after the despicable campaign she ran against Levin(and I know he was stupid for not running in the 10th because he would have won there given what we know now, but still)

Despicable how?
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2022, 04:56:10 PM »

Stabenow has said she is running again, but I get Bill Nelson 2018 vibes from her given her underperformance that same year so I'd rather she'd retire and let someone like Slotkin run instead.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #10 on: November 14, 2022, 03:33:06 AM »

Stabenow put next to no effort in campaigning in 2018. She would do better if she tried. I think James might be stale at this point; his narrow victory doesn’t inspire that much confidence in his ability to win statewide.
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BloJo94
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« Reply #11 on: November 20, 2022, 11:06:22 AM »

I seriously hope Rashida Tlaib primaries out Stabenow
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2022, 11:09:25 AM »
« Edited: November 20, 2022, 11:25:20 AM by Mr.Phips »

Stabenow has said she is running again, but I get Bill Nelson 2018 vibes from her given her underperformance that same year so I'd rather she'd retire and let someone like Slotkin run instead.

Florida is a far different state than Michigan.  By 2018, any Democrat faced an extremely narrow path to victory in Florida given the demographics of the state.   As long as Biden wins Michigan, Stabanow should be fine as long as she actually campaigns.  
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #13 on: November 20, 2022, 11:10:52 AM »

I seriously hope Rashida Tlaib primaries out Stabenow

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President of the civil service full of trans activists
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« Reply #14 on: November 20, 2022, 11:20:53 AM »

I seriously hope Rashida Tlaib primaries out Stabenow
I, personally, would prefer Dongless Dana as a theoretical Stabenow successor. Both because she's a lesbian and because she can, you know, actually win statewide.
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Zenobiyl
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« Reply #15 on: November 20, 2022, 11:34:24 AM »

My pick would be someone in law enforcement for the GOP, ideally without a track record of highly conservative rhetoric or votes. Also, preferably someone who's a fresh face (not james).

Michelle LaJoye-Young seems like a solid candidate, for instance.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #16 on: November 20, 2022, 11:50:55 AM »

My pick would be someone in law enforcement for the GOP, ideally without a track record of highly conservative rhetoric or votes. Also, preferably someone who's a fresh face (not james).

Michelle LaJoye-Young seems like a solid candidate, for instance.

Former Detroit Police Commissioner James Craig?

Craig probably should have been the GOP gubernatorial candidate, but he had petition problems. Shameful.

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Zenobiyl
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« Reply #17 on: November 20, 2022, 12:04:16 PM »

My pick would be someone in law enforcement for the GOP, ideally without a track record of highly conservative rhetoric or votes. Also, preferably someone who's a fresh face (not james).

Michelle LaJoye-Young seems like a solid candidate, for instance.

Former Detroit Police Commissioner James Craig?

Craig probably should have been the GOP gubernatorial candidate, but he had petition problems. Shameful.


Yeah, except he should’ve explicitly rejected election denialism
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2022, 12:56:17 PM »

My pick would be someone in law enforcement for the GOP, ideally without a track record of highly conservative rhetoric or votes. Also, preferably someone who's a fresh face (not james).

Michelle LaJoye-Young seems like a solid candidate, for instance.

Former Detroit Police Commissioner James Craig?

Craig probably should have been the GOP gubernatorial candidate, but he had petition problems. Shameful.


What if Ray Kelly moves to Michigan? Maybe he has a summer lakefront house there?
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2022, 01:10:23 PM »

My pick would be someone in law enforcement for the GOP, ideally without a track record of highly conservative rhetoric or votes. Also, preferably someone who's a fresh face (not james).

Michelle LaJoye-Young seems like a solid candidate, for instance.

Former Detroit Police Commissioner James Craig?

Craig probably should have been the GOP gubernatorial candidate, but he had petition problems. Shameful.


What if Ray Kelly moves to Michigan? Maybe he has a summer lakefront house there?

Kelly actually has a home in Florida (surprise, surprise)..........

Kelly and his son, rightwing commentator Greg Kelly lives in Garden City, a Long Island suburb outside NYC....he probably has an apartment in Manhattan like most elites and I believe he has a Florida home....

Craig could beat Stabenow.

She should retire.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #20 on: November 20, 2022, 01:48:39 PM »

My pick would be someone in law enforcement for the GOP, ideally without a track record of highly conservative rhetoric or votes. Also, preferably someone who's a fresh face (not james).

Michelle LaJoye-Young seems like a solid candidate, for instance.

Former Detroit Police Commissioner James Craig?

Craig probably should have been the GOP gubernatorial candidate, but he had petition problems. Shameful.


What if Ray Kelly moves to Michigan? Maybe he has a summer lakefront house there?

Kelly actually has a home in Florida (surprise, surprise)..........

Kelly and his son, rightwing commentator Greg Kelly lives in Garden City, a Long Island suburb outside NYC....he probably has an apartment in Manhattan like most elites and I believe he has a Florida home....

Craig could beat Stabenow.

She should retire.

James "botched the paperwork" Craig? He has no future in politics.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: November 29, 2022, 01:26:52 PM »

A lot of this insistence on Stabenow's vulnerability is already reminding me of all the obsessive attention on NH for much of 2021 and the very popular idea back then (not just among Atlas posters, but also among pundits) that Hassan was somehow the most vulnerable Senator of that cycle despite representing a reliably blue state (and certainly the bluest of the four GOP target states). It’s fair to say that MI is still a Democratic-leaning state with a very ineffective GOP state party, and plenty of "weak" incumbents have been bailed out by their state's partisan lean (including Hassan, who just outperformed Biden, and Murray, who vastly outperformed expectations/polling, to name only two).

While I could see Stabenow losing to the right challenger (not sure if that is James) in a R-leaning environment, especially if the GOP wins the presidency, I don’t think Casey losing before Stabenow is impossible (even if you don’t consider it particularly likely).

Needless to say, Whitmer was also considered one of the weakest D governors seeking reelection and she just won reelection by double digits.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #22 on: November 29, 2022, 01:49:37 PM »

A lot of this insistence on Stabenow's vulnerability is already reminding me of all the obsessive attention on NH for much of 2021 and the very popular idea back then (not just among Atlas posters, but also among pundits) that Hassan was somehow the most vulnerable Senator of that cycle despite representing a reliably blue state (and certainly the bluest of the four GOP target states). It’s fair to say that MI is still a Democratic-leaning state with a very ineffective GOP state party, and plenty of "weak" incumbents have been bailed out by their state's partisan lean (including Hassan, who just outperformed Biden, and Murray, who vastly outperformed expectations/polling, to name only two).

While I could see Stabenow losing to the right challenger (not sure if that is James) in a R-leaning environment, especially if the GOP wins the presidency, I don’t think Casey losing before Stabenow is impossible (even if you don’t consider it particularly likely).

Needless to say, Whitmer was also considered one of the weakest D governors seeking reelection and she just won reelection by double digits.
I mean, Gary Peters also won by double digits and we saw what happened two years later.
And, I'm sure you agree with this but the idea that Murray was ever going to lose re election was preposterous. She was running in Washington for God's sake.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #23 on: November 29, 2022, 02:04:51 PM »

I mean, Gary Peters also won by double digits and we saw what happened two years later.
And, I'm sure you agree with this but the idea that Murray was ever going to lose re election was preposterous. She was running in Washington for God's sake.

James basically performed at Generic R levels in 2020 — Democrats won the 2020 House Popular Vote in MI (no uncontested races) by almost the exact same margin that Peters won his Senate race by. James's showing is really only considered an impressive result because we’re so used to Republicans underperforming the presidential baseline; he is not a remarkable candidate by any means. I don’t think performing at Generic R levels will be enough for the MI GOP in 2024 unless they’ve already flipped the Presidency and won PA-PRES by 2-3% or so.

The point about Murray and Hassan is that both essentially matched Biden's % in a more Republican-leaning year in spite of their (real) weaknesses as incumbents. "Candidate quality" doesn’t mean a thing if blue state voters are no longer willing to elect Republican Senators.
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BloJo94
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« Reply #24 on: December 01, 2022, 04:32:17 PM »

I think this may finally he the year Bill Huizenga goes for the Senate.
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