MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

James would be one of the weaker ones lol. He's ran for office so many times he could end up being off putting like Beto/Crist etc.
They are better off with a non insane state senator who can paint Stabenow as having been in office for too long and is now out of touch

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Do we know for sure that Stabenow is running for re-election?

She'll be 74, which is definitely old, but not old enough that it would be weird for her to run. I would think Dems are better off with an incumbent than an open seat, but Stabenow underperformed in 2018, so we'll see. If she doesn't run, Haley Stevens and Elissa Slotkin are the obvious frontrunners.

I never want to see Steven's run for anything after the despicable campaign she ran against Levin(and I know he was stupid for not running in the 10th because he would have won there given what we know now, but still)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

A lot of this insistence on Stabenow's vulnerability is already reminding me of all the obsessive attention on NH for much of 2021 and the very popular idea back then (not just among Atlas posters, but also among pundits) that Hassan was somehow the most vulnerable Senator of that cycle despite representing a reliably blue state (and certainly the bluest of the four GOP target states). It’s fair to say that MI is still a Democratic-leaning state with a very ineffective GOP state party, and plenty of "weak" incumbents have been bailed out by their state's partisan lean (including Hassan, who just outperformed Biden, and Murray, who vastly outperformed expectations/polling, to name only two).

While I could see Stabenow losing to the right challenger (not sure if that is James) in a R-leaning environment, especially if the GOP wins the presidency, I don’t think Casey losing before Stabenow is impossible (even if you don’t consider it particularly likely).

Needless to say, Whitmer was also considered one of the weakest D governors seeking reelection and she just won reelection by double digits.

I mean, Gary Peters also won by double digits and we saw what happened two years later.
And, I'm sure you agree with this but the idea that Murray was ever going to lose re election was preposterous. She was running in Washington for God's sake.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Needs to be Whitmer. Slotkin should stay in her house seat

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Do Benson and Nessel have other higher aspirations? I would think one or either would make more sense waiting for 2026 Governor. That seems like a more natural step for them?

But they both can't be governor though, that's the thing.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1611388040479383553?s=46&t=CHVOAWsWhal...

When will they leave this woman alone lol! She has no interest!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Who is the best possible candidate for the Rs?

Tom Leonard

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I know Slotkin is really strong but what's Snyder like? Is she just generic R basically?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1689597613522202624

This race moves to Lean R if he is the nominee. Hopefully he forgets to get enough signatures again!

I wouldn’t say Lean R but yeah if he can get enough signatures, this is more likely than PA and even WI

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Craig needs to hurry up before Rogers gains momentum

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Craig needs to hurry up before Rogers gains momentum

If I were Slotkin, I would rather face Rogers.

Yes. This is one race where I feel republicans could actually overperform the Presidential nominee. Slotkin is a good candidate but Craig is aesthetically very strong with his police background

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It’s a good think Slotkin is battle tested, this is going to be tougher than the other two(WI/PA)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

This is still Lean D, given the state of the presidential race in the state.

Slotkin will outperform Biden significantly no matter who the Republican nominee is.

2016 and 2020 both pretty strongly suggest that an open-seat Democratic nominee -- particularly in the Midwest! -- will not, in fact, over-perform Biden. I expect her to run 1-2 points behind.

That said, still Leans D. Rogers has historically been a very strong campaigner (he outright won the city of Lansing in the 2002 midterm, even for the time an insane accomplishment), but his glory days are well behind him now and he has not run in an election since 2012. (He would've been a dream GOP recruit in 2008/2012/2014; especially in the last of these it's strange that he didn't run). He's now quite out-of-date, though; he had lots of tendencies in office which we'd now call neoconservative. Judging by his endorsement pattern, though, he probably has Daines in his pocket, which implies that Trump is all for this.

Seeing some Democrats talk about carpetbagging, since he's lived in Florida for the past few years, but I doubt that'll work just because Slotkin has also been pretty widely attacked for not actually living in Michigan. Also Democrats thinking of PA-Sen 2022 as a blueprint to a victory, even though it was a race very unusual in how bad the favorables of both leading candidates were, are being very silly.

What about Craig? Do you think he will struggle to campaign like the last time?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

There’s also a danger of overestimating Republican chances here just because most of the other swing state races (WI/MI/AZ) look even more out of reach and Rogers just seems above-average/particularly formidable next to people like Lake, Masters, and McCormick.

This is the same "overton window"-type of trap some us fell into in NV-SEN 2022 with Laxalt, who was obviously more competent than Masters, Oz, and Walker, but still no better than a generic R.

A generic R — giving MI GOP primary voters the benefit of the doubt for a moment in that I’m assuming they will actually nominate that kind of person — will still face major obstacles in 2024:

• The top of the ticket will be a drag here, particularly if Trump is the nominee. Good Republican candidates have lost because of the top of the ticket before, and a generic one only gets you so far if the man leading the ticket implodes.
• The Republican coalition will be even less reliable in down-ballot races in 2024, given how reliant the Republican nominee will be on winning over people who either still lean Democratic in down-ballot races, have recently supported Democrats in down-ballot races or have been Democrats their entire life. Republicans really can’t afford many split-ticket votes here given how close MI would be in a competitive national race.
• Joe Biden's unusually poor numbers for an incumbent Democrat don’t necessarily translate into a Democratic underperformance in down-ballot races, as we’ve seen in multiple elections now, particularly 2022. Yes, "higher turnout" will likely benefit Republicans here, but it obviously doesn’t explain the entire Democratic overperformance in 2022.
• The MI Democratic Party is one of the best-run swing state Democratic parties, and the MI GOP... isn’t — this matters less in a presidential year, but it doesn’t exactly help.

I’d also argue that Slotkin is a stronger Democrat than Stabenow.

TL;DR: One of the better pick-up opportunities for the GOP, but a lot will have to go their way here for it to actually flip. I don’t see it going Republican before NV, assuming Brown is the nominee there.

All fair, but it should be much easier for Rs to distance themselves from Trump then Democrats from Biden

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1701978440117711152?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

Good for Rs, he would have lost badly.
I still think if Craig can get actually market himself, he would be the strongest. That remains to be seen though

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

James Craig gave his full support to the unions today. Mike Rogers would NEVER.
Craig needs to be the nominee.

Do you think he's learned anything from the signature debacle?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'd argue that Stabenow retiring makes this a tougher pickup for Republicans than if she ran for reelection.

Incumbency is still a net advantage vs an open seat. I'm trying to think of a single senate race that an elected incumbent lost in the general, that would have been better for the incumbent party with an open seat. Even though people like Mark Kirk and Doug Jones got destroyed, they still did better compared to an open seat situation. I had to go back to 2008 to find Ted Stevens.

I just think it would have been easier to paint Stabenow as having been in office too long, as if she ran she would be running for Term #5.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1703783131160154426

Man we are in big trouble here. Slottin and DSCC need to be on their A game

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1703783131160154426

Man we are in big trouble here. Slottin and DSCC need to be on their A game

Not really.  This race is Likely D, closer to Safe D than Lean D.  Craig is a really weak candidate and Rogers isn’t much better.

What makes them especially weak?

Its just X coping lol. I do think Craig is much stronger than Rogers and this race is more viable than AZ at this point

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

There's literally no evidence that Craig is a strong candidate. He couldn't even get on the ballot in 2022, yet he's a strong candidate? Come on.

He's literally campaigning for union voters who usually lean democratic. I mean, do you see someone like Tudor Dixon doing this? I'll give you that he has yet to prove he can market but it would take a special level of incompetence to actually not get on the ballot twice. Any person with an iota of common sense would learn from their mistake in that situation and ensure it doesn't happen again.
 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1719732696186777882

Looks Like Meijer getting in. Would be a strong GE candidate should he get there. (primary will be difficult)

Super weird that this race has multiple solid to decent candidates but there is seemingly no one in WI

Open seat dynamics are naturally better for prospective candidates. If I was the NRSC, I would triage Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and go all in on this race and Ohio in the midwest.

Yeah, Republicans are lucky Stabenow is a decade older than Baldwin and Casey.

Stabenow is actually a weaker incumbent as well. Even if she was running for re-election, Michigan would still be an easier flip than the other two.

I'd argue it would be even easier, because you can argue "It's time for someone new!" and she doesn't seem to reach out to the center like Slotkin does

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1721553131463434504

Idiots. Craig and Meijer are stronger than Rogers

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Would make it Leans R outright if he could win the primary, actually, but really hard to imagine him winning the primary. Also kind of a dumb race for him to run, because while he clearly has a future in the post-Trump era when no one cares about 2021, and that vote is easy to cash in for moderate points, that future is just not here yet.

If he's determined to run for something, he should run for Mayor of Grand Rapids, or his old congressional seat, or something like that.

Guy couldn’t even win his own primary, how does he expect to win the entire state??

In fairness he actually did the best in his own primary of all the Republicans who voted to impeach by raw percentage; Valadao and Newhouse only won their nominations because their opponents were disunited. My understanding is that within his district, his efforts to campaign for Gibbs (who he apparently personally got along pretty well with) after losing the primary actually mended a lot of fences, and he's not dead in the water in his local area. That said, I don't think he's mended fences with Trump himself, and I don't know if this is even possible, and that's what it would take to just be competitive statewide, much less win, in 2024. Also the NRSC wants Rogers, and candidates from western Michigan rarely win statewide primaries; Grand Rapids versus Lansing may not feel like a large advantage for Lansing but it really is.

What about Craig? He's literally god tier on paper, why wouldn't they want him? Is it because of his campaign failure last year?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But…but…but Atlas told me he was an unbeatable titan who only got screwed over by 2022 in a fluke.

One of the GOP's biggest problems is that those Republican candidates who have the potential to reshake the race by creating a different, non-traditional coalition (e.g. Craig) often lack the resources, experience, national support, and (sometimes) simply the seriousness to effectively compete.

Meanwhile, those candidates who are capable of running at least a somewhat serious campaign (e.g. McCormick, Rogers) lack the realization that the GOP has long moved on from whatever it was under Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush and Paul Ryan.

A candidate who combines both can do very well, but they’re few and far between, almost non-existent.

David Clarke is another example in that first category and Hovde in the 2nd one.

David Clarke has a lot of the positives of Craig but he also has a bunch of negatives the latter doesn't.
Anyway, Rogers certainly leaves much to be desired, but he doesn't belong in the same category as Hovde/McCormick. Those two are really out of touch

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Lol he has no chance in the primary and will just hurt Rogers more