VA-07: Spanberger retiring

[henster]

I can definitely see Vindman coming out on top out of the clown car and unlike some of the other #resister crowd favorite candidates he actually seems electable.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If there was a #resist wine mom seat that would eat Vindman up it’s this seat

[Roll Roons]

If there was a #resist wine mom seat that would eat Vindman up it’s this seat

Nah, that would be VA-08, VA-10 or VA-11.

[LabourJersey]

Vindman's already getting a lot of pushback from Virginia Dem insiders/ultra-engaged Dems for his lack of connections/involvement in local politics so far.

A decent part of it is the very legitimate skepticism of Vindman's dedication to Democratic values (I believe he and his brother were Republicans up to 2017, which may not be bad to swing voters but would hurt in the primary).

Will be interesting to see since Dem insiders in NOVA really seem to dislike DC-based candidates who parachute into districts with little attachment to their local political scene (Also applies to the GOP - see Juan Pablo Segura).

We're probably going to get a bit of a clown car primary here -NOVA has 3 million people, a lot of Democrats, a lot of money, and only so many desirable political offices now that local city councils and county boards are increasingly unappealing - the recipe for massive primaries. Hope there's an alternative to Vindman.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenLitchfieldVA/status/1725667568969462097?t=hR3R3Z3LUBYvBgK...

Third candidate in. The more local dems run, the more likely vindman wins.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BrianaSewellVA/status/1726571092545056943?t=AeN1w33LBEiniGZJ...

She represented a historically not-so-safe seat in PW. This was made safe for 2023, but she's theoretically not going to be representing that district for much longer.  

Also, now the third candidate in from the local NOVA scene, fourth overall. The more candidates,  the more likely vindman dodges his primary defects and gets to the favorable (for him) general election.

[MargieCat]

Do you know who I am?

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1725230561336164766

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JeremyMcPike/status/1729917282971705613?t=hH7WcUi19pXZnbcNcg...

Senator McPike out.

For reference,  the field right now is State Delegate Sewell, PW Supervisor Franklin, Former Delegate Guzman, and Vindman.

Edit: Guzman's official announcement

https://twitter.com/guzman4virginia/status/1730280434049691830?t=YgVxf_c6eU1UFyT...

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/JeremyMcPike/status/1729917282971705613?t=hH7WcUi19pXZnbcNcg...

Senator McPike out.

For reference,  the field right now is State Delegate Sewell, PW Supervisor Franklin, Former Delegate Guzman, and Vindman.

Good for VA Dems.  That's exactly the type of seat that would be weirdly close in a special election.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1742253108171022462?t=wsW9O0jDRxglvnfay8S...

Resistance moneybags update

[ProgressiveModerate]

Haven't followed this a ton, but one thing to consider is VA-07 is racially pretty diverse, at 50% non-white. Blacks make up about 24% of the population, Hispanics about 17%, and Asians about 7%. If the VA-07 black vote consolidates that could be really powerful in this primary.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1753034972603056214?t=Ay5roPxoAngg_Bjry5...

Fundraising reports, no surprises.  Vindman is getting the resistance cash in a place where it can actually do something good for the overall party. This type of cash flows will likely move the district off the board further down the road,  if he wins the primary.

[MargieCat]

If Vindman wins, I wonder if he joins the Blue Dog Coalition.

He seems like the type that would.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why are pundits only rating this as Lean D (or in one case titl D)? This is a Biden + 9 seat where Dems have several solid recruits and the GOP nobody notable

[LabourJersey]

Why are pundits only rating this as Lean D (or in one case titl D)? This is a Biden + 9 seat where Dems have several solid recruits and the GOP nobody notable

This district is seen as one with a lot of voters who lean conservative but are very anti-Trump. Prince William and Stafford have reputations for attracting transplants who don't want to live in more liberal spots like Fairfax or Alexandria but still be in commuting distance of DC.

Also Derrick Anderson (the frontrunner on the GOP side) seems like an average GOP candidate - not amazing, but not bad and can probably outrun Trump provided he doesn't do anything stupid like Yesli Vega did last cycle.

Though the bar for NOVA republican candidates is on the floor - the GOP candidate against Don Beyer in VA-08 (Arlington/Alexandria/Fairfax), Hareek Christian Kim, is a random guy whose twitter feed is both very pro-Trump and veryanti-Israel.