Early Voting thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ralston's updates are giving me flashbacks to previous cycles when they were good for Democrats one day, good for Republicans the next, until it got close to Election Day.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1587558792970936321

wbrocks:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota updated today. Now 375,983 votes cast total.

Throwing the county results into the "BRTD Model" shows a likely Party ID of:

D 37%
R 32%
I 31%

Which equals about
D 138,043
R 121,168
I 116,772

Thus equaling D+16,875.

Total cast in comparison to 2020:

Cook County   40.87%
Marshall County   36.18%
Lake of the Woods County   33.95%
Red Lake County   33.76%
Grant County   31.57%
Big Stone County   30.26%
Norman County   30.04%
Aitkin County   28.77%
Traverse County   28.63%
Mahnomen County   28.23%
Koochiching County   25.25%
Cass County   24.00%
Lac qui Parle County   23.14%
Kittson County   22.21%
Stevens County   22.08%
Watonwan County   21.87%
Itasca County   20.02%
Murray County   19.27%
Wilkin County   18.68%
Pope County   18.46%
Polk County   17.95%
Swift County   17.29%
Rock County   16.83%
Roseau County   16.80%
Nobles County   16.31%
Yellow Medicine County   15.93%
Pipestone County   15.81%
Blue Earth County   15.80%
Le Sueur County   15.20%
Nicollet County   14.76%
Lyon County   14.22%
Chippewa County   14.19%
Meeker County   14.10%
Brown County   13.99%
Hubbard County   13.64%
Hennepin County   13.36%
Washington County   13.08%
Sibley County   13.01%
Morrison County   12.87%
Carlton County   12.61%
Mower County   12.46%
Ramsey County   11.67%
-------- STATEWIDE 11.47% --------
Beltrami County   11.44%
Carver County   11.26%
Crow Wing County   11.20%
Douglas County   11.20%
Wabasha County   11.07%
Dakota County   11.00%
Jackson County   10.99%
Fillmore County   10.92%
Stearns County   10.49%
Lake County   10.33%
Becker County   10.14%
Freeborn County   10.13%
Pennington County   9.98%
Olmsted County   9.83%
Clay County   9.61%
Rice County   9.58%
Anoka County   9.00%
Scott County   8.92%
St. Louis County   8.67%
Pine County   8.55%
Faribault County   8.34%
Goodhue County   8.33%
Kandiyohi County   7.81%
Wright County   7.77%
Steele County   7.74%
Otter Tail County   7.63%
Martin County   7.58%
Clearwater County   7.32%
Benton County   7.01%
Mille Lacs County   6.62%
Winona County   6.50%
Isanti County   6.21%
McLeod County   6.16%
Redwood County   5.59%
Kanabec County   5.58%
Chisago County   5.48%
Wadena County   5.44%
Sherburne County   5.30%
Todd County   5.25%
Houston County   5.21%
Waseca County   5.19%
Cottonwood County   5.15%
Renville County   4.82%
Dodge County   4.62%
Lincoln County   4.51%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ralson has updated the blog.  Summary:

Clark firewall now at 25,000, or just under 9 percent. Still below registration for Dems, but only by half a point. Statewide lead is now at 3.1 percent, or 1.500 ballots, which is slightly above registration, so a little breathing room for D incumbents, who surely cannot feel safe with that margin but perhaps can stop sweating so profusely. Repubs were unloading their confetti earlier today, now must put it away for a time.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

[soundchaser]

18,000+ mail days for the rest of the week would be just lovely, thanks.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

SECULAR friewal comes through

[Ferguson97]

TITANIUM TILT D NEVADA

[wbrocks67]

But seriously, exact reason why with mail stuff you just don't know what you don't know.

[2016]

Ok, time for me to give some folks a reality check for those who are apparently buying the Political Matrix/Listener Group Poll that has Crist 53-47 over DeSantis
https://twitter.com/FreshTakeFla/status/1587586243315273729
Tomorrow FL GOP will likely expand their lead beyond 200,000 Ballots.

In Miami-Dade 215 Ballots seperate DEM vs REP.

[soundchaser]

Ok, time for me to give some folks a reality check for those who are apparently buying the Political Matrix/Listener Group Poll that has Crist 53-47 over DeSantis
https://twitter.com/FreshTakeFla/status/1587586243315273729
Tomorrow FL GOP will likely expand their lead beyond 200,000 Ballots.

In Miami-Dade 215 Ballots seperate DEM vs REP.

Nobody is buying that poll except maybe OC.

[2016]

Republicans don't neccessarily need Nevada.
They have "Multiple Pathways" now to a Senate Control.

Democrats are not going to win all of the 4 Battlegrounds (PA, NV, AZ, GA). That would only happen in a D-Wave Year. Usually the Party that has the momentum at the end of Campaign wins most of the Close Races in a Midterm see 2014 or 2018.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ok, time for me to give some folks a reality check for those who are apparently buying the Political Matrix/Listener Group Poll that has Crist 53-47 over DeSantis
https://twitter.com/FreshTakeFla/status/1587586243315273729
Tomorrow FL GOP will likely expand their lead beyond 200,000 Ballots.

In Miami-Dade 215 Ballots seperate DEM vs REP.

I...wait, was anybody actually buying into that poll??

[doopy pants]

Republicans don't neccessarily need Nevada.
They have "Multiple Pathways" now to a Senate Control.

Democrats are not going to win all of the 4 Battlegrounds (PA, NV, AZ, GA). That would only happen in a D-Wave Year. Usually the Party that has the momentum at the end of Campaign wins most of the Close Races in a Midterm see 2014 or 2018.

So Jeanne Sheheen, Mark Warner, Ted Cruz, and Rick Scott lost?

[wbrocks67]

Was trying to see if I could gleam anything from WA, now that 1M+ votes are in. The top counties by return rates are really a mixed bag, some Biden counties, and some Trump counties. The top return rate though is Jefferson County, a Biden +41 county. It's a small one, but interesting to see they're energized.

[MikeIrvine]

Colorado update.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2022/20221101GeneralElectionReturnReporting7daysout.pdf

Dem- 245,551 (33.05%)
Rep- 217,154 (29.23%)
Other- 280,230 (37.72%)
Total- 742,935

Relative big day as over 200,000 ballots were added to the total. Still trail 2018 total turnout at this point by about 60,000 votes. In 2018 Dems/Reps were in a virtual ties with Others trailing.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2018/PR20181030BallotsReturned.html

Since Colorado is almost all mail it is a valid comparison IMO. Better than trying to compare to a presidential year.

You know what? I am willing to concede on Colorado because that is a good point and if you want I can take down the meme because I was the one wrong.

Looking at TargetSmart for 2018 and 2020 (not 2022 because they have not updated what you have yet) the spread 7 days before the election in 2018 was about tied while it was D+11 in 2020. The spread of all early/mail votes by election day was D+1 in 2018 and D+3 in 2020. Question is will there be a similar drop next week for D's like in 2020? If not then CO Dems and to a lesser extent national Dems should be somewhat happy with these results. At the very least it wouldn't be a turnout issue.

Can I ask where you saw that? Went to look as well and I saw (by registered, not modeled) 2018 move from D+2 to D+4.5 and 2020 go from D+11 to D+7.5. D at +7.5 currently, so a similar trend to 2020 at least implies D+4 by the end of early voting.

You sure? According to TargetSmart in 2018 7 days before the election it was R+0.3 (functionally tied) but moved to D+1 by the end. That’s odd maybe check again because I am getting what I found before looking at it now.

This is what I'm seeing. Set to national, registered party. Top is 7 days out. Bottom is final early mail. Doesn't include the evening update from today.

[iceman]

Ok, time for me to give some folks a reality check for those who are apparently buying the Political Matrix/Listener Group Poll that has Crist 53-47 over DeSantis
https://twitter.com/FreshTakeFla/status/1587586243315273729
Tomorrow FL GOP will likely expand their lead beyond 200,000 Ballots.

In Miami-Dade 215 Ballots seperate DEM vs REP.

Nobody is buying that poll except maybe OC.

I don’t think even OC is buying it lol.

[wbrocks67]

Thank god.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1587609473836847104

[It’s so Joever]

Colorado update.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2022/20221101GeneralElectionReturnReporting7daysout.pdf

Dem- 245,551 (33.05%)
Rep- 217,154 (29.23%)
Other- 280,230 (37.72%)
Total- 742,935

Relative big day as over 200,000 ballots were added to the total. Still trail 2018 total turnout at this point by about 60,000 votes. In 2018 Dems/Reps were in a virtual ties with Others trailing.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2018/PR20181030BallotsReturned.html

Since Colorado is almost all mail it is a valid comparison IMO. Better than trying to compare to a presidential year.

You know what? I am willing to concede on Colorado because that is a good point and if you want I can take down the meme because I was the one wrong.

Looking at TargetSmart for 2018 and 2020 (not 2022 because they have not updated what you have yet) the spread 7 days before the election in 2018 was about tied while it was D+11 in 2020. The spread of all early/mail votes by election day was D+1 in 2018 and D+3 in 2020. Question is will there be a similar drop next week for D's like in 2020? If not then CO Dems and to a lesser extent national Dems should be somewhat happy with these results. At the very least it wouldn't be a turnout issue.

Can I ask where you saw that? Went to look as well and I saw (by registered, not modeled) 2018 move from D+2 to D+4.5 and 2020 go from D+11 to D+7.5. D at +7.5 currently, so a similar trend to 2020 at least implies D+4 by the end of early voting.

You sure? According to TargetSmart in 2018 7 days before the election it was R+0.3 (functionally tied) but moved to D+1 by the end. That’s odd maybe check again because I am getting what I found before looking at it now.

This is what I'm seeing. Set to national, registered party. Top is 7 days out. Bottom is final early mail. Doesn't include the evening update from today.

I was talking about Colorado.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1587594329325031425

[Adam Griffin]

Just for those who missed it, the roughly 25 posts following this one probably deserve their own shelf on the wall of Atlas hilarious prognostications, somewhere underneath "I will now accept my accolades".

[wbrocks67]

Not sure if it's prudent, but day 4 of early voting in NYC is done, so I wanted to see how it compared to 2020's first 4 days of EV

after 4 days in 2022 / after 4 days in 2020 / 2022 share of 2020

Manhattan - 55,799/100,533 (55.5%)
Bronx - 16,089/66,393 (24.2%)
Brooklyn - 49,045/149,368 (32.8%)
Queens - 35,246/95,899 (36.8%)
Staten Island - 15,598/45,542 (34.2%)

Manhattan truly blowing it out of the water, so clearly the white liberals in NYC are energized. Turnout looking similar among Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island, where they've amassed around 1/3 of the 2020 EV so far. Bronx is the only one off,

Overall, early vote turnout through 4 days is 38% of 2020 EV. Obviously not a great comparison since it's also a prez year, but thought it was still interesting.

Given Staten Island is one place where you'd expect a ~Zeldin surge~, it doesn't seem to be appearing just yet, at least in EV.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Ok, time for me to give some folks a reality check for those who are apparently buying the Political Matrix/Listener Group Poll that has Crist 53-47 over DeSantis
https://twitter.com/FreshTakeFla/status/1587586243315273729
Tomorrow FL GOP will likely expand their lead beyond 200,000 Ballots.

In Miami-Dade 215 Ballots seperate DEM vs REP.

I...wait, was anybody actually buying into that poll??

Nope, it's a strawman argument, as usual.

[MikeIrvine]

Colorado update.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2022/20221101GeneralElectionReturnReporting7daysout.pdf

Dem- 245,551 (33.05%)
Rep- 217,154 (29.23%)
Other- 280,230 (37.72%)
Total- 742,935

Relative big day as over 200,000 ballots were added to the total. Still trail 2018 total turnout at this point by about 60,000 votes. In 2018 Dems/Reps were in a virtual ties with Others trailing.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2018/PR20181030BallotsReturned.html

Since Colorado is almost all mail it is a valid comparison IMO. Better than trying to compare to a presidential year.

You know what? I am willing to concede on Colorado because that is a good point and if you want I can take down the meme because I was the one wrong.

Looking at TargetSmart for 2018 and 2020 (not 2022 because they have not updated what you have yet) the spread 7 days before the election in 2018 was about tied while it was D+11 in 2020. The spread of all early/mail votes by election day was D+1 in 2018 and D+3 in 2020. Question is will there be a similar drop next week for D's like in 2020? If not then CO Dems and to a lesser extent national Dems should be somewhat happy with these results. At the very least it wouldn't be a turnout issue.

Can I ask where you saw that? Went to look as well and I saw (by registered, not modeled) 2018 move from D+2 to D+4.5 and 2020 go from D+11 to D+7.5. D at +7.5 currently, so a similar trend to 2020 at least implies D+4 by the end of early voting.

You sure? According to TargetSmart in 2018 7 days before the election it was R+0.3 (functionally tied) but moved to D+1 by the end. That’s odd maybe check again because I am getting what I found before looking at it now.

This is what I'm seeing. Set to national, registered party. Top is 7 days out. Bottom is final early mail. Doesn't include the evening update from today.

I was talking about Colorado.

This is what happens when I do not get my required dose of coffee

[Adam Griffin]

So, Georgia's master absentee voter file for Tuesday as uploaded by the SoS is corrupted. Only the first 27 counties alphabetically are accessible; the remaining 132 individual county files + the statewide file refuse to open. Others have noticed this, too, so it's not just a "me problem". Perhaps they'll fix this before tonight's update.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

Is what you're seeing similar to what TargetEarly is suggesting?

Right now, this is what they estimate for WA, 7 days out:

2018 - 828K - D 54, R 36
2022 - 869K - D 58, R 30

I would find it hard to believe that Ds are actually doing better than 2018 at this same time. Unless you're data is showing similar to what the primary this year showed?