Early Voting thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1573656717124112386

Prof. McDonald is a good follow for early voting numbers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah but it's 11k votes out of... how many are we expecting? 120 million?

Although it's encouraging, let's not forget that since 2020, the early vote has skewed Democratic.  And ISTR that the early early vote was especially Democratic, i.e. those Republicans who did vote early were likely to do so closer to Election Day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1575878998193688576

[GeorgiaModerate]

I do not think there is data for mail ballots statewide, but Ada County (home of Boise) at least has some visualizations: https://adacounty.id.gov/elections/absentee-ballot-tracking/

As of 10/4:

• 32,315 ballots have been issued
• 1,066 ballots have been returned, for a return rate of 3.3%

Republicans make up 49.7% of the requested ballots, Democrats 27.45%, and Unaffiliated 22.3%.

2018 had a total of 29,019 issued ballots by Election Day, so 2022 ballot requests have already blown past that.

Do you have the party breakdown from 2018?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1579110131887136771

Good thread here that features a discussion of early voting.  Click to read the whole thing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, here's a new twist: election conspiracy theorist encouraging people to vote absentee.

https://twitter.com/VoterGa/status/1579225539013148674

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting article about early voting in MN, it is running way behind 2020 but slightly ahead of 2018. Of course mid term turnout is not going to match presidential turnout but the drop-off from 2020 has been huge. In 2020 336,017 votes had been cast in the first two weeks, this year 49,575. In 2018 42,552 votes were cast in the first two weeks. My guess is we are falling back to pre COVID voting habits and more people will vote in person on election day but we will have to wait and see.

https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2022/10/the-state-of-2022-early-voting-in-minnesota-its-not-2020-anymore/

Terrible for Dems. Despite the fact that early voting has become more normalized, we still are barely above 2018 turnout. Barring really low turnout on E Day, this could be a red tsunami.

Or, as Minnesota Mike suggests, 2020 was an aberration due to the fact that there was a deadly pandemic ongoing and more people are going to return to their previous voting habits.  My family and I are an example; typically we vote early in person, but in 2020 we voted by mail.  This year we'll go back to voting early in person.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Beware the long post.

Virginia's early vote tracker is up! 11,000 votes have been accepted so far, with results by CD and county.

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/2022-november-general-election/

Over 190,000 people have early voted in Virginia, which is 56% of its final 2018 EV total. 3.2% is the total statewide turnout rate with four weeks left until election day.

Core Biden counties (netted >20,000 votes)
Fairfax - 23% of 2018 final early vote, 2.3% turnout
Arlington - 15% of 2018, 1.8% turnout
Richmond - 62% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Prince William - 44% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Loudoun - 40% of 2018, 2.9% turnout
Henrico - 72% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Alexandria - 32% of 2018, 3.2% turnout
Norfolk - 73% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Hampton - 96% of 2018, 2.9% turnout
Newport News - 100% of 2018, 2.4% turnout
Albemarle - 70% of 2018, 4.8% turnout
Portsmouth - 88% of 2018, 2.6% turnout
Charlottesville - 50% of 2018, 3.9% turnout
Chesterfield - 79% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Virginia Beach - 75% of 2018, 3.6% turnout
Roanoke City - 94% of 2018, 3.4% turnout
Petersburg - 56% of 2018, 3.4% turnout

Looks like DC area is really slacking so far(actually comparable to SW VA) while Hampton Roads are turning out early. Looks like this is a consequence of partisan white Ds relying on mail, black voters prefer in-person?

Core Trump counties (netted >10,000 votes in);
Bedford - 74% of 2018 final early vote, 2.9% turnout
Augusta - 108% of 2018, 3.4% turnout
Hanover - 94% of 2018, 4% turnout
Rockingham - 89% of 2018, 3% turnout
Washington - 82% of 2018, 3.7% turnout
Pittsylvania - 69% of 2018, 2.2% turnout
Tazewell - 87% of 2018, 2.8% turnout
Frederick - 69% of 2018, 2.4% turnout
Campbell - 79% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Franklin - 80% of 2018, 3% turnout
Roanoke County - 57% of 2018, 2.5% turnout
Wise - 47% of 2018, 1.5% turnout

Similar to 2021, the Shenandoah valley/greater Richmond sees the largest increase in turnout vs previous elections. Southside and SW VA are the weak links here as to be expected, but Republican areas overall are banking votes at a similar pace.

Other notables:
Stafford(Quantico area) - 79% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Emporia(largely black southside town) - 87% of 2018, 1.7% turnout
Lynchburg(Liberty U.) - 120% of 2018, 3.6% turnout
Fauquier(reddish DC exurbs) - 68% of 2018, 4.8% turnout
Radford(19 point improvement to Youngkin from Trump) - 100% of 2018, 3.2% turnout
Buchanan(2 point improvement to Youngkin from Trump) - 33% of 2018, 1.2% turnout

Still early, but a few signs point to a red-tinged environment. Swing and GOP areas are banking votes, Dem areas are a land of contrast right now.

Interesting data.  I have a vague memory that in 2020 there was a similar pattern of the D counties lagging in the early part of early voting (possibly due to fewer early voting locations open then, at least in Fairfax?)  Does anyone else remember this?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not sure anything is really comparable to 2020, which was a (hopefully) unique event.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'd be skeptical of mail in voting numbers too. Unless you live in a state that automatically mails you one, its not hard to imagine a good chunk of 2020 mail-in voters are just going to simplify things and vote in person. I know I am.

Same here.  My family and I have voted early in person for years, but in 2020 we voted by mail.  This year we're going back to EIP.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1582066404362457088

That's quite a turnout extrapolation from one partial day of early voting, although I do think a turnout between 2018 and 2020 is entirely reasonable.  On a related note, the AJC has launched a Georgia early voting tracker: https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-voting/.  Be sure to scroll all the way down the page for demographic breakdowns.

ETA: And also (as my co-Georgian Adam Griffin reminded me) https://georgiavotes.com/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Holy s***. If this ends up at like 105k-ish, that's right in between 2020 (140K) and 2018 (70K)

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582114647590993920

Another consideration is that not all early voting locations are available yet.  Although every county started early voting today (I believe), some don't open all the locations right away.  For example, in my county (Forsyth), the only voting location that opened today is in the county elections office in Cumming.  Several satellite locations will open up next Monday, and that's when I'll go vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not going to take too much from Georgia’s Day 1 numbers but that breakdown by race numbers are not what republicans want to see.

Yeah, we'll have to keep watch but at least you can say that Black voters were energized to vote day 1. If that keeps up, bodes well for Ds.

Is Souls to the Polls a thing in GA? Be interesting to see how that effects numbers over the weekend.

Yes, in those counties that have Sunday early voting.  IIRC the 2021 election law allows counties to optionally have up to two Sundays in the early voting period.  The GOP tried to eliminate Sunday voting entirely when the bill was first proposed, but there was a backlash and it remained legal.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1582393257509519360

[GeorgiaModerate]

Jon Ralston has launched his Nevada early voting blog for 2022.  This is a must follow to read the Nevada tea leaves.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1582846620315492357
It was a stormy weekend, which affected mail delivery. My household did not receive all of our ballots on the same day, for example.

Or it could be that folks are truly deciding last minute.

Or it’s the size of the ballot — it’s an unusually long one here, with ten ballot props (don’t California my Arizona) and fifty judges up for retention in some locales.

Is the ballot hard to read?  I heard that it uses very small type.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's politics blog:

Democrats fire up ground game as early voting surges

Early voting continues to soar in Georgia, with data indicating that higher proportions of Black voters are casting ballots so far than in the last two election cycles.

One reason behind the rising totals is a coalition of grassroots organizations that styles itself as the “closers” of election cycles.

The coalition, under the umbrella of the left-leaning America Votes Georgia, has knocked more than 1.3 million doors in key districts. They and their allies are what Gov. Brian Kemp refers to when he says Republicans are playing catch-up to the Democrats’ robust pre-election ground game.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There is a lot of misinformation in this thread about Georgia absentee voting.  First, ANY VOTER can still request an absentee ballot, with no excuses needed.  This has been true since 2005!  However, last year's change to the law did make it less easy; it's now necessary to provide a form of government ID with the absentee ballot application, which was not true before.

See https://georgia.gov/vote-absentee-ballot for more information on how to vote absentee in Georgia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's another set of polling averages, nicely displayed in one place:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583878734590799872

[GeorgiaModerate]

Erickson is also saying the early vote bodes well for Walker, and granted the early vote is not predictive and anything can happen on Election Day, but the electorate is more African-American at this point than in 2018 or 2020 so there’s no way Erickson’s claim makes sense other than for cheerleading.

From a very solid Georgia political reporter:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1583905891254169600

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia Early Vote numbers are out, 817k counting mail ballots, up ~88000 today. Waiting for people to do demographic breakdowns.

Welcome to the forum! Check out the Georgia megathread in the Gubernatorial & Statewide Elections board. Our resident Georgia data guru Adam Griffin posts periodic demographic analysis of the state’s early vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1584257388546117632

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1584686969967108101

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm unable to report his post a few posts up again, but he edited it to call me a dumb piece of s----, please review.

It's been taken care of.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1584998116620906496