Early Voting thread.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Early Voting Begins:

Minnesota – Sept. 23
South Dakota – Sept. 23
Virginia – Sept. 23
Wyoming – Sept. 23
Illinois – Sept. 29
Michigan – Sept. 29
Maine – Oct. 9
California – Oct. 10
Montana – Oct. 11
Nebraska – Oct. 11
New Mexico – Oct. 11
Arizona – Oct. 12
Indiana – Oct. 12
Ohio – Oct. 12
Georgia – Oct. 17
Iowa – Oct. 19
Kansas – Oct. 19
Rhode Island – Oct. 19
Tennessee – Oct. 19
North Carolina – Oct. 20
Washington – Oct. 21
Massachusetts – Oct. 22
Nevada – Oct. 22
Arkansas – Oct. 24
Colorado – Oct. 24
Idaho – Oct. 24
South Carolina – Oct. 24
Texas – Oct. 24
Hawaii – Oct. 25
Missouri – Oct. 25
Louisiana – Oct. 25
Utah – Oct. 25
West Virginia – Oct. 26
Maryland – Oct. 27
Delaware – Oct. 28
Florida – Oct. 29
New Jersey – Oct. 29
New York – Oct. 29

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Dem- 3,102 (+596)
Rep- 832 (+167)
Other 1,428 1,767 (+339)

Dem- 54.22% (-0.27%)
Rep- 14.54% (+0.08%)
U/A- 30.89% (+0.19%)

https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Press/2022%20General/NC%20Absentee%20Stats%20for%202022%20General/2022-09-23%20Daily%20Absentee%20Stats%20Report%20-%202022%20General.pdf

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Much to early to tell but those numbers are a slight underperformance for the GOP and a slight overperformance for the Dems.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

SOUTH DAKOTA:
DEM: 3,035
IND: 1,204
NPA: 675
REP: 6,445

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

September 25, 2022

Dem- 3,657 (+555)
Rep- 983 (+151)
Other 2,078 (+311)

Dem- 54.27% (+0.05%)
Rep- 14.59% (+0.05%)
U/A- 30.84% (-0.05%)

https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Press/2022%20General/NC%20Absentee%20Stats%20for%202022%20General/2022-09-25%20Daily%20Absentee%20Stats%20Report%20-%202022%20General.pdf

Dems steady from 2020 margin, Republicans slightly down and Independents slightly up.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Just curious from where do they post these daily updates?

https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=Press/2022%20General/NC%20Absentee%20Stats%20for%202022%20General/

Thank you! Is there a way to see partisan breakdown by county?

Not at the moment.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

September 27, 2022

Dem- 4,657 (+1,000)
Rep- 1,354 (+371)
Other 2,689 (+611)

Dem- 53.39% (-0.88%)
Rep- 15.52% (+0.93%)
U/A- 30.83% (-0.01%)

https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Press/2022%20General/NC%20Absentee%20Stats%20for%202022%20General/2022-09-27%20Daily%20Absentee%20Stats%20Report%20-%202022%20General.pdf

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

New National Early Vote totals:

September 28, 2022:

Party   Count   Percent
Democrat     6,377   54.2
Republican     2,101   17.9
None/Minor 3,284   27.9
TOTAL     11,762   100.0

I don't know 2020's but for date that contains only NC, PA, and SD it's looking decent.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

There is a 10 point difference in favor of women voters. I'm not sure what the 2020 numbers were on that but it looks encouraging, although again it's still only a few thousand in.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

We have more data from overnight.

Democrat     8,434   55.9
Republican     2,733   18.1
None/Minor 3,908   25.9
TOTAL     15,075   100.0

Net improvements for both major parties

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Democrat    10,668   49.6
Republican    5,697   26.5
None/Minor 5,151   23.9
TOTAL    21,516   100.0

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Democrat 10,668 49.6
Republican 5,697 26.5
None/Minor 5,151 23.9
TOTAL 21,516 100.0

What state?

All of them reporting.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Party   Count   Percent
Democrat    11,163   49.5
Republican    5,870   26.0
None/Minor 5,519   24.5
TOTAL    22,552   100.0


Total Early Votes: 107,263
Mail Ballots Requested: 3,673,855

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 112,693
Mail Ballots Requested: 6,101,791

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 151,857
Mail Ballots Requested: 7,358,750

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 237,512
Mail Ballots Requested: 8,307,046

Party             Count   Percent
Democrat     60,146   57.9
Republican     26,792   25.8
None/Minor 16,961   16.3
TOTAL    103,899   100.0

North Carolina, the state with the most votes that has early statistics, is showing numbers roughly in line with 2020, if a little better for Democrats.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 285,308
Mail Ballots Requested: 8,971,571

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 555,328
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,595,717

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 555,328
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,595,717

Which State, ought to be CA!

This will be one of the few Posts in this Thread from me. I will stay mostly away from Early Voting because I don't want to content with some Posters I did in 2020 who were telling me that Biden had a shot in TX or FL.

A bunch of them actually, CA hasn't started early vote counting yet.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 650,864 (+95k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,685,123 (+90k)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 650,864 (+95k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,685,123 (+90k)

A gentle quick reminder of myself and I said this 2020 as well. Pay no attention to the Ballots requested especially now that COVID is sort of over.
Not every Mail Ballot that is requested will be returned by Mail. There are some Voters that request a Mail Ballot and decide to vote either Early in Person or on E-Day. Happens all the time.
Secondly don't expect the VBM Vote screw like 80-20 or 75-25 towards Democrats like we saw in 2020.
Finally would you be so kind enough to share which State it is.

It's a national tally. State reporting are MT, ND, MN, SD, IA, IL, MI, TX, VT, ME, PA, NJ, VA, MD, NC, GA, and FL.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Interesting article about early voting in MN, it is running way behind 2020 but slightly ahead of 2018. Of course mid term turnout is not going to match presidential turnout but the drop-off from 2020 has been huge. In 2020 336,017 votes had been cast in the first two weeks, this year 49,575. In 2018 42,552 votes were cast in the first two weeks. My guess is we are falling back to pre COVID voting habits and more people will vote in person on election day but we will have to wait and see.

https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2022/10/the-state-of-2022-early-voting-in-minnesota-its-not-2020-anymore/

Terrible for Dems. Despite the fact that early voting has become more normalized, we still are barely above 2018 turnout. Barring really low turnout on E Day, this could be a red tsunami.

Is that you SnowLabrador?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 742,333 (+92k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,722,468 (+37k)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Literally the only state that early voting tells us anything about is Nevada. Until Ralston starts doing his analyses, don’t freak out.

What does NV tell us?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 1,007,530 (+265k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,788,833 (+66k)