Early Voting thread.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don't worry guys, there definitely will be 20,000 votes by mail that magically appear in Clark County...yes totally

We have 4 days and 12 hrs tomorrow it will be 3 days and 12 hrs we need to just wait stop worrying so much it's anxiety

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I opened up my prediction again to all D wins it's no telling until all the Projections not prediction are made our mock maps are not ratings maps as some users think it can be inaccurate

As long as you vote, you can't vote twice just wait until Eday we will soon find out it really doesn't matter whom wins because under Trump and Biden we are sti stuck in a Pandemic Rs or Trump aren't Christ and wave a wand otherwise Trump would of gotten reelected it's an Endemic

Unless you are an athlete or celebrity or inheritance from UK or Ireland like Kennedy you aren't rich unless you win the Lottery

[prag_prog]

more % of Dems are gonna vote on E-Day in 2022 than in 2020. There was a tweet few days back where someone on twitter looked at few polls and averaged % of Dems who said they would vote on E-Day. The average was 34% (in 2022)  and in 2020, that number was 20%

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways using TargetSmart registered party data, Ralston's Clark analysis is confirmed. the firewall at this point in 2018 was 30k in Clark while it is 22k now. What I WILL say is that statewide, Dems actually are leading by more than they were in 2018, but far far less in 2020. Ralston is not perfect, he is comparing 2018 data to 2020 which is incredibly dull. By his own years of comparisons Dems are fine, but its when comparing 2020 that Dems should be terrified. Percentage wise, the gap is also smaller than in 2020 at this point, with NV being 0.9 percent less D than at this point in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map anyways just watch Fetterman, WARNOCK and Barnes win because it will follow our Govs Edays

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyways using TargetSmart registered party data, Ralston's Clark analysis is confirmed. the firewall at this point in 2018 was 30k in Clark while it is 22k now. What I WILL say is that statewide, Dems actually are leading by more than they were in 2018, but far far less in 2020. Ralston is not perfect, he is comparing 2018 data to 2020 which is incredibly dull. By his own years of comparisons Dems are fine, but its when comparing 2020 that Dems should be terrified. Percentage wise, the gap is also smaller than in 2020 at this point, with NV being 0.9 percent less D than at this point in 2020.

The problem, and this doesn't affect only Nevada, is that 2022 is an apple being compared to oranges, to use Ralston's own metaphor.  Early voting this year will be more prevalent and more polarized than in 2018, but less prevalent and less polarized than in 2020. 

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways using TargetSmart registered party data, Ralston's Clark analysis is confirmed. the firewall at this point in 2018 was 30k in Clark while it is 22k now. What I WILL say is that statewide, Dems actually are leading by more than they were in 2018, but far far less in 2020. Ralston is not perfect, he is comparing 2018 data to 2020 which is incredibly dull. By his own years of comparisons Dems are fine, but its when comparing 2020 that Dems should be terrified. Percentage wise, the gap is also smaller than in 2020 at this point, with NV being 0.9 percent less D than at this point in 2020.

The problem, and this doesn't affect only Nevada, is that 2022 is an apple being compared to oranges, to use Ralston's own metaphor.  Early voting this year will be more prevalent and more polarized than in 2018, but less prevalent and less polarized than in 2020. 

Possibly, and if true then I would say Ralston is underestimating Dems (!) but we will not know until election day. Of course I dont think this is the case but everyone knows that.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Anyways using TargetSmart registered party data, Ralston's Clark analysis is confirmed. the firewall at this point in 2018 was 30k in Clark while it is 22k now. What I WILL say is that statewide, Dems actually are leading by more than they were in 2018, but far far less in 2020. Ralston is not perfect, he is comparing 2018 data to 2020 which is incredibly dull. By his own years of comparisons Dems are fine, but its when comparing 2020 that Dems should be terrified. Percentage wise, the gap is also smaller than in 2020 at this point, with NV being 0.9 percent less D than at this point in 2020.

The problem, and this doesn't affect only Nevada, is that 2022 is an apple being compared to oranges, to use Ralston's own metaphor.  Early voting this year will be more prevalent and more polarized than in 2018, but less prevalent and less polarized than in 2020. 

Possibly, and if true then I would say Ralston is underestimating Dems (!) but we will not know until election day. Of course I dont think this is the case but everyone knows that.

In summary, we can predict absolutely nothing of real substance from these totals until Election Day.

I've got to stop gluing my eyes to this board every two years...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota updated today. Now 375,983 votes cast total.

New update today, which will probably be the last one before the final numbers on Monday. A two day surge going up to 451,992 votes, although that's not too surprising this close to the election.

I'll plug into the county numbers into my "model" and then update later.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Allegheny
https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1588223809789644802?s=20&t=9J8IGt_cb4...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So here's the county numbers as a percentage of 2020:

Marshall County   45.46%
Cook County   44.15%
Lake of the Woods County   40.94%
Grant County   39.32%
Red Lake County   37.64%
Big Stone County   33.99%
Norman County   33.71%
Aitkin County   33.11%
Mahnomen County   32.26%
Kittson County   30.98%
Traverse County   28.63%
Koochiching County   27.52%
Watonwan County   26.63%
Cass County   26.32%
Stevens County   25.66%
Lac qui Parle County   25.06%
Murray County   24.66%
Wilkin County   24.19%
Itasca County   22.84%
Swift County   21.94%
Pipestone County   21.80%
Pope County   20.58%
Rock County   20.48%
Roseau County   20.05%
Nobles County   18.73%
Yellow Medicine County   18.44%
Polk County   18.37%
Blue Earth County   17.89%
Jackson County   17.72%
Chippewa County   17.54%
Brown County   16.94%
Nicollet County   16.89%
Lyon County   16.63%
Le Sueur County   16.37%
Hennepin County   16.06%
Washington County   15.95%
Meeker County   15.71%
Sibley County   15.70%
Hubbard County   15.49%
Ramsey County   14.25%
Carlton County   13.96%
Mower County   13.94%
Dakota County   13.86%
-------- STATEWIDE 13.79% --------
Crow Wing County   13.64%
Carver County   13.38%
Fillmore County   13.16%
Freeborn County   12.94%
Morrison County   12.87%
Stearns County   12.70%
Wabasha County   12.68%
Douglas County   12.49%
Beltrami County   12.16%
Becker County   12.11%
Pennington County   11.80%
Olmsted County   11.73%
Lake County   11.69%
Rice County   11.32%
Anoka County   11.14%
Clay County   10.93%
Martin County   10.56%
Scott County   10.51%
St. Louis County   10.38%
Kandiyohi County   10.23%
Goodhue County   9.62%
Faribault County   9.61%
Wright County   9.54%
Steele County   9.41%
Pine County   9.24%
Otter Tail County   9.24%
Clearwater County   8.46%
Mille Lacs County   8.21%
Winona County   8.13%
Chisago County   8.05%
Isanti County   8.04%
McLeod County   7.85%
Benton County   7.76%
Sherburne County   7.71%
Waseca County   7.42%
Redwood County   6.96%
Kanabec County   6.94%
Wadena County   6.40%
Todd County   5.85%
Houston County   5.83%
Lincoln County   5.82%
Cottonwood County   5.78%
Dodge County   5.71%
Renville County   5.47%

[It’s so Joever]

So here's the county numbers as a percentage of 2020:

Marshall County   45.46%
Cook County   44.15%
Lake of the Woods County   40.94%
Grant County   39.32%
Red Lake County   37.64%
Big Stone County   33.99%
Norman County   33.71%
Aitkin County   33.11%
Mahnomen County   32.26%
Kittson County   30.98%
Traverse County   28.63%
Koochiching County   27.52%
Watonwan County   26.63%
Cass County   26.32%
Stevens County   25.66%
Lac qui Parle County   25.06%
Murray County   24.66%
Wilkin County   24.19%
Itasca County   22.84%
Swift County   21.94%
Pipestone County   21.80%
Pope County   20.58%
Rock County   20.48%
Roseau County   20.05%
Nobles County   18.73%
Yellow Medicine County   18.44%
Polk County   18.37%
Blue Earth County   17.89%
Jackson County   17.72%
Chippewa County   17.54%
Brown County   16.94%
Nicollet County   16.89%
Lyon County   16.63%
Le Sueur County   16.37%
Hennepin County   16.06%
Washington County   15.95%
Meeker County   15.71%
Sibley County   15.70%
Hubbard County   15.49%
Ramsey County   14.25%
Carlton County   13.96%
Mower County   13.94%
Dakota County   13.86%
-------- STATEWIDE 13.79% --------
Crow Wing County   13.64%
Carver County   13.38%
Fillmore County   13.16%
Freeborn County   12.94%
Morrison County   12.87%
Stearns County   12.70%
Wabasha County   12.68%
Douglas County   12.49%
Beltrami County   12.16%
Becker County   12.11%
Pennington County   11.80%
Olmsted County   11.73%
Lake County   11.69%
Rice County   11.32%
Anoka County   11.14%
Clay County   10.93%
Martin County   10.56%
Scott County   10.51%
St. Louis County   10.38%
Kandiyohi County   10.23%
Goodhue County   9.62%
Faribault County   9.61%
Wright County   9.54%
Steele County   9.41%
Pine County   9.24%
Otter Tail County   9.24%
Clearwater County   8.46%
Mille Lacs County   8.21%
Winona County   8.13%
Chisago County   8.05%
Isanti County   8.04%
McLeod County   7.85%
Benton County   7.76%
Sherburne County   7.71%
Waseca County   7.42%
Redwood County   6.96%
Kanabec County   6.94%
Wadena County   6.40%
Todd County   5.85%
Houston County   5.83%
Lincoln County   5.82%
Cottonwood County   5.78%
Dodge County   5.71%
Renville County   5.47%

Is this 2020 Early vote or total vote?
If the former off the top my head that looks like a great sign for Dems, if the latter a great sign for Reps.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So here's the county numbers as a percentage of 2020:

Marshall County 45.46%
Cook County 44.15%
Lake of the Woods County 40.94%
Grant County 39.32%
Red Lake County 37.64%
Big Stone County 33.99%
Norman County 33.71%
Aitkin County 33.11%
Mahnomen County 32.26%
Kittson County 30.98%
Traverse County 28.63%
Koochiching County 27.52%
Watonwan County 26.63%
Cass County 26.32%
Stevens County 25.66%
Lac qui Parle County 25.06%
Murray County 24.66%
Wilkin County 24.19%
Itasca County 22.84%
Swift County 21.94%
Pipestone County 21.80%
Pope County 20.58%
Rock County 20.48%
Roseau County 20.05%
Nobles County 18.73%
Yellow Medicine County 18.44%
Polk County 18.37%
Blue Earth County 17.89%
Jackson County 17.72%
Chippewa County 17.54%
Brown County 16.94%
Nicollet County 16.89%
Lyon County 16.63%
Le Sueur County 16.37%
Hennepin County 16.06%
Washington County 15.95%
Meeker County 15.71%
Sibley County 15.70%
Hubbard County 15.49%
Ramsey County 14.25%
Carlton County 13.96%
Mower County 13.94%
Dakota County 13.86%
-------- STATEWIDE 13.79% --------
Crow Wing County 13.64%
Carver County 13.38%
Fillmore County 13.16%
Freeborn County 12.94%
Morrison County 12.87%
Stearns County 12.70%
Wabasha County 12.68%
Douglas County 12.49%
Beltrami County 12.16%
Becker County 12.11%
Pennington County 11.80%
Olmsted County 11.73%
Lake County 11.69%
Rice County 11.32%
Anoka County 11.14%
Clay County 10.93%
Martin County 10.56%
Scott County 10.51%
St. Louis County 10.38%
Kandiyohi County 10.23%
Goodhue County 9.62%
Faribault County 9.61%
Wright County 9.54%
Steele County 9.41%
Pine County 9.24%
Otter Tail County 9.24%
Clearwater County 8.46%
Mille Lacs County 8.21%
Winona County 8.13%
Chisago County 8.05%
Isanti County 8.04%
McLeod County 7.85%
Benton County 7.76%
Sherburne County 7.71%
Waseca County 7.42%
Redwood County 6.96%
Kanabec County 6.94%
Wadena County 6.40%
Todd County 5.85%
Houston County 5.83%
Lincoln County 5.82%
Cottonwood County 5.78%
Dodge County 5.71%
Renville County 5.47%

Is this 2020 Early vote or total vote?
If the former off the top my head that looks like a great sign for Dems, if the latter a great sign for Reps.

Total. Comparing to the 2020 early vote is absolutely pointless because of the Covid stuff and push for mail voting then that doesn't exist now.

Also if you think it's great for Reps because of the high conservative counties, as explained before many rural areas especially in the north are vote by mail only. Also those counties are tiny and don't really make much of a difference anyway. I haven't ran the "model" yet but previous county numbers were close to that and the model actually showed a slight D gain over 2020 (weighting by population and how they voted in 2020.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And here's the model's estimate for Party ID:

D 36.31%
R 32.65%
I 31.04%

In raw votes that translates to:

D 164,134
R 147,557
I 140,301

So D+16,577. FWIW that's actually a tiny improvement for the Republicans (a shift of 298 votes in their favor.)

(This model assumes that Democrats, Republicans and independents are all voting early by the same rate in which they voted in 2020 in total, which obviously isn't true outside of those rural VBM only areas, so in reality it's probably a bigger D lead.)

[Sbane]

Also, it still feels ilke Dems being +3% in Washoe at this point is a pretty good sign, no? What was the final EV in Washoe in 2018?

It is debatable how good of a sign it is in Nevada since Clark is such a huge county. If the Democrats are weak there, it may not matter that they overperform in Washoe. That being said, an overperformance in Washoe is a good indicator for Democratic overperformance in other competitive areas. Could be a good sign for CO-8 for example.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the Doomers want to grab onto something, the simulated two-party 2020 vote based on the county numbers so far in Minnesota comes out to Biden 52.96%-Trump 47.04%. The real vote had Biden 53.64%.

But of course that's not taking into account the bias toward rural counties and that in urban and suburban counties Democrats are almost certainly voting more. My guesstimate is that the actual D firewall is about 45k.

[prag_prog]

And here's the model's estimate for Party ID:

D 36.31%
R 32.65%
I 31.04%

In raw votes that translates to:

D 164,134
R 147,557
I 140,301

So D+16,577. FWIW that's actually a tiny improvement for the Republicans (a shift of 298 votes in their favor.)

(This model assumes that Democrats, Republicans and independents are all voting early by the same rate in which they voted in 2020 in total, which obviously isn't true outside of those rural VBM only areas, so in reality it's probably a bigger D lead.)

TargetSmart modelled estimate (which from what I know is done based on voter's past voting history in primaries and demographics) for MN as of yesterday with total 391K votes is D - 45.7%, R - 25.5%, I - 28.8%
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?state=MN&view_type=state

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And here's the model's estimate for Party ID:

D 36.31%
R 32.65%
I 31.04%

In raw votes that translates to:

D 164,134
R 147,557
I 140,301

So D+16,577. FWIW that's actually a tiny improvement for the Republicans (a shift of 298 votes in their favor.)

(This model assumes that Democrats, Republicans and independents are all voting early by the same rate in which they voted in 2020 in total, which obviously isn't true outside of those rural VBM only areas, so in reality it's probably a bigger D lead.)

TargetSmart modelled estimate (which from what I know is done based on voter's past voting history in primaries and demographics) for MN as of yesterday with total 391K votes is D - 45.7%, R - 25.5%, I - 28.8%
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?state=MN&view_type=state

But how does TargetSmart know the history of all the voters? That's why I don't put much stock in their model. They're pretty opaque about their methodology.

[wbrocks67]

more % of Dems are gonna vote on E-Day in 2022 than in 2020. There was a tweet few days back where someone on twitter looked at few polls and averaged % of Dems who said they would vote on E-Day. The average was 34% (in 2022)  and in 2020, that number was 20%

Yeah, I think more Democrats are waiting to vote on Election Day than expected, which will shake things up. The Georgia SUSA poll had nearly just as many Democrats expected to vote on Election Day as Republicans, which you wouldn't expect.

[prag_prog]

And here's the model's estimate for Party ID:

D 36.31%
R 32.65%
I 31.04%

In raw votes that translates to:

D 164,134
R 147,557
I 140,301

So D+16,577. FWIW that's actually a tiny improvement for the Republicans (a shift of 298 votes in their favor.)

(This model assumes that Democrats, Republicans and independents are all voting early by the same rate in which they voted in 2020 in total, which obviously isn't true outside of those rural VBM only areas, so in reality it's probably a bigger D lead.)

TargetSmart modelled estimate (which from what I know is done based on voter's past voting history in primaries and demographics) for MN as of yesterday with total 391K votes is D - 45.7%, R - 25.5%, I - 28.8%
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?state=MN&view_type=state

But how does TargetSmart know the history of all the voters? That's why I don't put much stock in their model. They're pretty opaque about their methodology.

isn't this voter file data available in all the states ? I thought you can get the past voting history of every voter on whether they voted in a particular primary/general election or not.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And here's the model's estimate for Party ID:

D 36.31%
R 32.65%
I 31.04%

In raw votes that translates to:

D 164,134
R 147,557
I 140,301

So D+16,577. FWIW that's actually a tiny improvement for the Republicans (a shift of 298 votes in their favor.)

(This model assumes that Democrats, Republicans and independents are all voting early by the same rate in which they voted in 2020 in total, which obviously isn't true outside of those rural VBM only areas, so in reality it's probably a bigger D lead.)

TargetSmart modelled estimate (which from what I know is done based on voter's past voting history in primaries and demographics) for MN as of yesterday with total 391K votes is D - 45.7%, R - 25.5%, I - 28.8%
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?state=MN&view_type=state

But how does TargetSmart know the history of all the voters? That's why I don't put much stock in their model. They're pretty opaque about their methodology.

isn't this voter file data available in all the states ? I thought you can get the past voting history of every voter on whether they voted in a particular primary/general election or not.

But in Minnesota there's no way to tell which primary someone voted in because they're all on the same ballot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1588332178836180992

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1588332178836180992

This seems more like coping at this point, but we will see in five days whether or not Rakich has the last laugh.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1588332178836180992

This seems more like coping at this point, but we will see in five days whether or not Rakich has the last laugh.

How is this coping? Anyone smart knows Nevada now has California’s voting system and has the demographic/cultural profile of San Bernardino - we know exactly how mail-in ballot returns will work. Most will be sent from Saturday-Tuesday, many ballots will be mailed-in via post office on Tuesday. The ones mailed-in on Tuesday will probably be extremely Dem-leaning, regardless of voter reg composition (young Nevadans will be the ones mailing in on Tuesday - very Hispanic group and young Hispanics arguably most ‘leftist’ body of voters in US).

Democrats will probably lose anyway because voter reg isn’t predictive of voting. They’ll bleed lost of votes. Nevertheless, these voter system changes may guarantee really, really strong turnout - hard to underestimate how much DMV voter reg + universal mail ballots changes the game in terms of turnout. If CCM and Sisolak hold-on, it’ll be due to these voting system changes.

[Adam Griffin]

Don't worry guys, there definitely will be 20,000 votes by mail that magically appear in Clark County...yes totally

We've already told you before:

guys the votes are in the mail