Early Voting thread.

[soundchaser]

Lots of time left before the election, I for sure wouldn’t count NV as gone for Ds.

With that being said yes the EV looks a bit better for Rs than it has historically at this point. If the EV continues to trend well for Rs then that would be a very ominous sign for Dems.

I'm having a lot of trouble squaring it with turnout in AZ. Unless something bizarre is going to happen every day the rest of this week (which is possible, I suppose).

[wbrocks67]

I mean, didn't we have a few days last week where there was 20-40k ballots processed in a single day? Not sure how you square that with the last few days, where it's been like 20k total.

And yeah - so Maricopa county can push out 100k ballots a day, but Clark is barely processing 10k?

[EJ24]

Nevada is gone. CCM is a super weak incumbent. We best hope Fetterman flips PA and everybody else holds.

I still have 52-48 GOP Senate though.

[wbrocks67]

Was trending up all last week and then hit a wall once the weekend came-

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1587464245150732297

[wbrocks67]

Turnout up in New Jersey so far, compared to last year-

https://twitter.com/RebovichInst/status/1587492383058444288

[It’s so Joever]

Was trending up all last week and then hit a wall once the weekend came-

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1587464245150732297

Ralston confirmed there was no backlog.

[wbrocks67]

Was trending up all last week and then hit a wall once the weekend came-

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1587464245150732297

Ralston confirmed there was no backlog.

No backlog from Clark, doesn't mean there's no backlog from USPS. Washoe was having no issues, and their votes only slightly dipped on Sunday.

[It’s so Joever]

Was trending up all last week and then hit a wall once the weekend came-

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1587464245150732297

Ralston confirmed there was no backlog.

No backlog from Clark, doesn't mean there's no backlog from USPS. Washoe was having no issues, and their votes only slightly dipped on Sunday.

How long are you going to do this? When will you admit you were wrong?

[Nyvin]

The bad news is Nevada really doesn't look good.   The good news is that Nevada was always one of the Democrat's weaker states.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

The bad news is Nevada really doesn't look good.   The good news is that Nevada was always one of the Democrat's weaker states.

I disagree with the 2nd part. I heard all cycle about the GOP underperforming expectations in NV. Without NV Democrats have to run the table in the other close states to keep the Senate.

[Minnesota Mike]

Colorado update.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2022/20221101GeneralElectionReturnReporting7daysout.pdf

Dem- 245,551 (33.05%)
Rep- 217,154 (29.23%)
Other- 280,230 (37.72%)
Total- 742,935

Relative big day as over 200,000 ballots were added to the total. Still trail 2018 total turnout at this point by about 60,000 votes. In 2018 Dems/Reps were in a virtual ties with Others trailing.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2018/PR20181030BallotsReturned.html

[UncleSam]

Was trending up all last week and then hit a wall once the weekend came-

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1587464245150732297

Ralston confirmed there was no backlog.

No backlog from Clark, doesn't mean there's no backlog from USPS. Washoe was having no issues, and their votes only slightly dipped on Sunday.

How long are you going to do this? When will you admit you were wrong?

I feel like ‘dw guys the votes are in the mail’ has solid Atlas meme potential.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The bad news is Nevada really doesn't look good.   The good news is that Nevada was always one of the Democrat's weaker states.

I disagree with the 2nd part. I heard all cycle about the GOP underperforming expectations in NV. Without NV Democrats have to run the table in the other close states to keep the Senate.

Both can be true! NV has always been one of the more vulnerable states for the Democrats, but they have somewhat outperformed polling expectations in recent Senate cycles. 

[It’s so Joever]

Colorado update.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2022/20221101GeneralElectionReturnReporting7daysout.pdf

Dem- 245,551 (33.05%)
Rep- 217,154 (29.23%)
Other- 280,230 (37.72%)
Total- 742,935

Relative big day as over 200,000 ballots were added to the total. Still trail 2018 total turnout at this point by about 60,000 votes. In 2018 Dems/Reps were in a virtual ties with Others trailing.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2018/PR20181030BallotsReturned.html

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Colorado update.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2022/20221101GeneralElectionReturnReporting7daysout.pdf

Dem- 245,551 (33.05%)
Rep- 217,154 (29.23%)
Other- 280,230 (37.72%)
Total- 742,935

Relative big day as over 200,000 ballots were added to the total. Still trail 2018 total turnout at this point by about 60,000 votes. In 2018 Dems/Reps were in a virtual ties with Others trailing.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2018/PR20181030BallotsReturned.html

I mean, I get this, but what else is there? Comparing a midterm and a presidential election also seems flawed. And Covid was way more prescient in 2020 vs now, and we have no idea how that'll impact turnout.

[Minnesota Mike]

Impossible to know how Nevada works out. There really is not a good comp to compare it to. 2018 was pre universal mailing of ballots. 2020 was prime COVID, a presidential year, the "mail your ballot early other the post office will lose it" hype was at it's peak. Some things to remember.

- Counting today there are only 4 days to vote early in person, there are 8 days to vote by mail. Also anything ballot postmarked by election day has until Friday(?) to arrive.

- Does Nevada act like other primarily vote by mail states and have a last minute rush? CO, WA, OR, CA all see a big surge of mail ballots the last weekend and the first part of election week. I honestly don't know and I don't think anyone else does either.

[Minnesota Mike]

Colorado update.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2022/20221101GeneralElectionReturnReporting7daysout.pdf

Dem- 245,551 (33.05%)
Rep- 217,154 (29.23%)
Other- 280,230 (37.72%)
Total- 742,935

Relative big day as over 200,000 ballots were added to the total. Still trail 2018 total turnout at this point by about 60,000 votes. In 2018 Dems/Reps were in a virtual ties with Others trailing.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2018/PR20181030BallotsReturned.html

Since Colorado is almost all mail it is a valid comparison IMO. Better than trying to compare to a presidential year.

[It’s so Joever]

Colorado update.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2022/20221101GeneralElectionReturnReporting7daysout.pdf

Dem- 245,551 (33.05%)
Rep- 217,154 (29.23%)
Other- 280,230 (37.72%)
Total- 742,935

Relative big day as over 200,000 ballots were added to the total. Still trail 2018 total turnout at this point by about 60,000 votes. In 2018 Dems/Reps were in a virtual ties with Others trailing.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2018/PR20181030BallotsReturned.html

I mean, I get this, but what else is there? Comparing a midterm and a presidential election also seems flawed. And Covid was way more prescient in 2020 vs now, and we have no idea how that'll impact turnout.

Acknowledged, but we do have empirical evidence (2022 primaries) that D voters are still disproportionately more likely to vote early these days than Rs. From that alone comparisons to 2018 should be outright ignored. At least with 2020 the partisan pattern is similar, although you do have a point in turnout differences. I also think Ralston should be comparing to 2020 btw.

[It’s so Joever]

Colorado update.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2022/20221101GeneralElectionReturnReporting7daysout.pdf

Dem- 245,551 (33.05%)
Rep- 217,154 (29.23%)
Other- 280,230 (37.72%)
Total- 742,935

Relative big day as over 200,000 ballots were added to the total. Still trail 2018 total turnout at this point by about 60,000 votes. In 2018 Dems/Reps were in a virtual ties with Others trailing.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2018/PR20181030BallotsReturned.html

Since Colorado is almost all mail it is a valid comparison IMO. Better than trying to compare to a presidential year.

You know what? I am willing to concede on Colorado because that is a good point and if you want I can take down the meme because I was the one wrong.

Looking at TargetSmart for 2018 and 2020 (not 2022 because they have not updated what you have yet) the spread 7 days before the election in 2018 was about tied while it was D+11 in 2020. The spread of all early/mail votes by election day was D+1 in 2018 and D+3 in 2020. Question is will there be a similar drop next week for D's like in 2020? If not then CO Dems and to a lesser extent national Dems should be somewhat happy with these results. At the very least it wouldn't be a turnout issue.

[Baki]

So basically, we know nothing.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So basically, we know nothing.

The official Atlas motto

[Minnesota Mike]

Oregon update:

Dems- 240,982 (42.23%)
Reps- 189,061 (33.13%)
Other- 140,573 (24.64%)
Total- 570,616

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/statistics/G22-Daily-Ballot-Returns.pdf

Another primarily mail state that had a jump in returns yesterday (156K). Was also a good day for Dems as they lead Reps by 14% but that number has been jumping around on a day by day basis so I wouldn't read that much into it.

[MikeIrvine]

Colorado update.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2022/20221101GeneralElectionReturnReporting7daysout.pdf

Dem- 245,551 (33.05%)
Rep- 217,154 (29.23%)
Other- 280,230 (37.72%)
Total- 742,935

Relative big day as over 200,000 ballots were added to the total. Still trail 2018 total turnout at this point by about 60,000 votes. In 2018 Dems/Reps were in a virtual ties with Others trailing.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2018/PR20181030BallotsReturned.html

Since Colorado is almost all mail it is a valid comparison IMO. Better than trying to compare to a presidential year.

You know what? I am willing to concede on Colorado because that is a good point and if you want I can take down the meme because I was the one wrong.

Looking at TargetSmart for 2018 and 2020 (not 2022 because they have not updated what you have yet) the spread 7 days before the election in 2018 was about tied while it was D+11 in 2020. The spread of all early/mail votes by election day was D+1 in 2018 and D+3 in 2020. Question is will there be a similar drop next week for D's like in 2020? If not then CO Dems and to a lesser extent national Dems should be somewhat happy with these results. At the very least it wouldn't be a turnout issue.

Can I ask where you saw that? Went to look as well and I saw (by registered, not modeled) 2018 move from D+2 to D+4.5 and 2020 go from D+11 to D+7.5. D at +7.5 currently, so a similar trend to 2020 at least implies D+4 by the end of early voting.

[It’s so Joever]

Colorado update.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2022/20221101GeneralElectionReturnReporting7daysout.pdf

Dem- 245,551 (33.05%)
Rep- 217,154 (29.23%)
Other- 280,230 (37.72%)
Total- 742,935

Relative big day as over 200,000 ballots were added to the total. Still trail 2018 total turnout at this point by about 60,000 votes. In 2018 Dems/Reps were in a virtual ties with Others trailing.

https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2018/PR20181030BallotsReturned.html

Since Colorado is almost all mail it is a valid comparison IMO. Better than trying to compare to a presidential year.

You know what? I am willing to concede on Colorado because that is a good point and if you want I can take down the meme because I was the one wrong.

Looking at TargetSmart for 2018 and 2020 (not 2022 because they have not updated what you have yet) the spread 7 days before the election in 2018 was about tied while it was D+11 in 2020. The spread of all early/mail votes by election day was D+1 in 2018 and D+3 in 2020. Question is will there be a similar drop next week for D's like in 2020? If not then CO Dems and to a lesser extent national Dems should be somewhat happy with these results. At the very least it wouldn't be a turnout issue.

Can I ask where you saw that? Went to look as well and I saw (by registered, not modeled) 2018 move from D+2 to D+4.5 and 2020 go from D+11 to D+7.5. D at +7.5 currently, so a similar trend to 2020 at least implies D+4 by the end of early voting.

You sure? According to TargetSmart in 2018 7 days before the election it was R+0.3 (functionally tied) but moved to D+1 by the end. That’s odd maybe check again because I am getting what I found before looking at it now.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1587558792970936321