Early Voting thread.

[kwabbit]

Thank you very much for presenting this info in a easy to read manner. What’s the best guess on final Black%, 26%?. Turnout is seemingly at about 45% of the eventual amount at this point.

In regards to 1) final EV composition, or 2) all voters (EV+ED)?

In the case of 1), 28.5% is about as low as it can go at this point.

In the case of 2), there is room for interpretation. Do we use the explicitly-identified black RV percentage (like the one I'm quoting in my daily updates), or do we use the actual percentage that includes voters not properly identified by SoS (i.e. the ones currently stuck in the "unknown/other" categories)?

• In terms of RV-identified percentage, 27% is the lowest it has been since 2006 (2010 & 2020)
• In terms of actual percentage among all voters, 28% is the lowest is has been since 2006 (2010)

Between 2016-2021: in terms of RV-identified percentage, it's been between 27.3% and 29.0%; in terms of actual percentage, it's been between 30.2% and 31.9%.

#2, in terms of RV identified percentage. Is the E day vote more or less Black than the late early vote? At current trends, it seems like it’s heading for a little under 27%, but I am not expert.

[MillennialModerate]

Georgia:

Day 16 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 136,848 voters cast ballots Tuesday, for a grand total of 1,947,275 votes.

Breakdown of Tuesday's voters:

Code:

83044 	White	60.68%
34561 	Black	25.26%
2915         Asian	2.13%
2711    	Latino	1.98%
13617 	Other	9.95%

76623	Female	55.99%
59821 	Male	        43.71%	
404          Other         0.30%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1125190	White	57.78%
573369	Black	29.44%
34358	Asian	1.76%
32803       Latino	1.68%
181555	Other	9.34%

1072629	Female	55.08%
870444	Male	        44.70%	
4202	        Other	0.22%

Isn’t that pretty bad for Dems?

Dems need around 31% black vote right ?

[wbrocks67]

I wonder if Dems in swing states are more energized to vote than Dems in blue/deep blue states. Atleast the polls and EV data so far is signalling a scenario like this

As a blue state early voter I totally buy this.

Certainly a possibility. Could also explain why Dem "enthusiasm" is higher in swing state polls than some of the national polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia:

Day 16 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 136,848 voters cast ballots Tuesday, for a grand total of 1,947,275 votes.

Breakdown of Tuesday's voters:

Code:

83044 White 60.68%
34561 Black 25.26%
2915         Asian 2.13%
2711    Latino 1.98%
13617 Other 9.95%

76623 Female 55.99%
59821 Male         43.71% 
404          Other         0.30%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1125190 White 57.78%
573369 Black 29.44%
34358 Asian 1.76%
32803       Latino 1.68%
181555 Other 9.34%

1072629 Female 55.08%
870444 Male         44.70% 
4202         Other 0.22%

Isn’t that pretty bad for Dems?

Dems need around 31% black vote right ?

The "other" category is mostly people who simply didn't specify a race on their registration.  Adam has a formula to allocate these to the other racial groups, but as an approximation, simply prorating them based on the other group percentages would add about 3% to the number shown.

[Adam Griffin]

Thank you very much for presenting this info in a easy to read manner. What’s the best guess on final Black%, 26%?. Turnout is seemingly at about 45% of the eventual amount at this point.

In regards to 1) final EV composition, or 2) all voters (EV+ED)?

In the case of 1), 28.5% is about as low as it can go at this point.

In the case of 2), there is room for interpretation. Do we use the explicitly-identified black RV percentage (like the one I'm quoting in my daily updates), or do we use the actual percentage that includes voters not properly identified by SoS (i.e. the ones currently stuck in the "unknown/other" categories)?

• In terms of RV-identified percentage, 27% is the lowest it has been since 2006 (2010 & 2020)
• In terms of actual percentage among all voters, 28% is the lowest is has been since 2006 (2010)

Between 2016-2021: in terms of RV-identified percentage, it's been between 27.3% and 29.0%; in terms of actual percentage, it's been between 30.2% and 31.9%.

#2, in terms of RV identified percentage. Is the E day vote more or less Black than the late early vote? At current trends, it seems like it’s heading for a little under 27%, but I am not expert.

It seems almost unbelievable and I've never really kept track of it myself, but there doesn't seem to be any major drop-off in black in-person vote share between EV & ED in most GA elections using your chosen combination of measurement. In fact, it's possible it might have even been higher in some elections...?

Obviously there are mitigating factors for 2020 in particular (mail), but in both 2018 & 2020, there were only 3 weekdays of in-person EV where RV-identified vote share was greater than it was for the entire, final electorate. In 2020, that was the first 3 days; in 2018, the last 3 days. There of course were also the 4 in-person weekend days in both elections were black RV-identified share was substantially higher than the overall total (though only 1 of them was mandatory statewide in both of those cycles, and almost all of these days saw a fraction of the voters of a typical weekday).

Your broader estimate may be on-point: as GM pointed out, adding another 3-4 points to that figure would give us an actual black electorate in the 30-31% range - which is in line with recent norms.

[Agafin]

The Georgia early vote looks bad for dems. This week was supposed to be the one where the black vote would be higher. I remember reading here that weeks 1 & 3 are the worst weeks for the white vote and the best for the black one. Good news for them is that a runoff is more likely than an outright win for Walker. Would be petty funny if Walker wins the November vote but then loses the runoff, just like Perdue. At that point, I can see the republican legislature trying to change the voting method to a simple past-the-post as the whole runoff system is now clearly detrimental to them.

[Adam Griffin]

The Georgia early vote looks bad for dems. This week was supposed to be the one where the black vote would be higher. I remember reading here that weeks 1 & 3 are the worst weeks for the white vote and the best for the black one. Good news for them is that a runoff is more likely than an outright win for Walker. Would be petty funny if Walker wins the November vote but then loses the runoff, just like Perdue. At that point, I can see the republican legislature trying to change the voting method to a simple past-the-post as the whole runoff system is now clearly detrimental to them.

I'm the one who mentioned that. Yes, that tended to be true - but as I just pointed out above, 2020's strongest (non-weekend) days for black in-person voting were the first 3 days, while it was the last 3 days in 2018. We'll have to wait to see if there is an uptick in this year's final 3 days (today, tomorrow & Friday) like we saw in 2018.

The truth is that there is no completely reliable correlation or historical factor to measure in Georgia given how trends in EDV, ABM & AIP have all shifted substantially over the past decade: 2020 was a nightmare in terms of shattering participation methods, and prior to 2018, barely more than 2% of voters typically cast ballots by mail (was 6% in 2018 and will probably be around that total this year; a very large majority of the ABM gains are reliable Democratic voters who previously voted early in-person, so that is one of multiple forms of cannibalization as time progresses).

[Adam Griffin]

Isn’t that pretty bad for Dems?

Dems need around 31% black vote right ?

The "other" category is mostly people who simply didn't specify a race on their registration.  Adam has a formula to allocate these to the other racial groups, but as an approximation, simply prorating them based on the other group percentages would add about 3% to the number shown.

Yes, many will think of exit polling figures, see the SoS-identified figure & think the true figure is lower than in reality.

If people want a quick and dirty (but still fairly approximate) way to reassign the "Unknowns" to their respective categories, you can basically just take the registration breakdowns for the under-30 category and proportion. That's because the overwhelming majority of "Unknowns" are the newly-registered, and an overwhelming majority of new registrants are under-30s.

These are the 18-29 registration stats as of 10/31:

Code:

GEORGIA 18-29 REGISTERED

RACE		SOS		        SOS + REFINED
White		44.64%		49.28%
Black		32.04%		35.43%
Other		11.88%		15.31%
Unknown		11.44%             --------

Reassigning the unassigned with this quick-and-dirty method, you end up with a current EV electorate of...

Code:

GA EV AS OF 11/2 
REASSIGN VIA 18-29 PROPORTIONS

White		62.38%
Black		32.75%
Everyone Else	4.87%

So - presumably - not as many people are going to prognosticate, doom or draw any other conclusions given these figures are far closer to reality than the simple SoS racial breakdowns.

[Devout Centrist]

Okay I am going to say this, I want you to LISTEN.

Voting. Patterns. Have. Changed. Because. Of. Covid-19.

And, thus, you would expect those changes to recede along with it.


Who are you trying to fool here? No one in Democratic strongholds is living or behaving comparably to November 2020. In lots of places they don’t even resemble November 2021, though that’s at least a closer comparison. The conditions that created some of the partisan polarisation over mail voting may still exist, but the conditions for the dramatic surge in urban area mail/early voting from the Dem side do not.

This guy thinks he’ll be lynched by Donald Trump himself if he doesn’t cosplay as a Republican on Atlas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stephen_richer/status/1587931136100950017

[bilaps]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

Yeah, the Monmouth poll broke this down - something like the early vote was Fetterman 68/25 but the E-day vote was Oz 54/41. So Oz will definitely win the e-day vote, but 40% is still pretty substantial vote for Dems on Election Day. I think the VBM # overall was only 25% of the electorate, so most PA'ians are going to vote on Election Day still.

So the relatively anemic early vote for Dems really is bad for them outside of PA.

Given we had 2.6M VBMs in a pandemic presidential year, and we're on track for over 50% of that in a midterm year, not sure how that's anemic. There's also no precedence beyond 2020 for PA for VBM to compare it to.

I meant outside of PA. Dems by registration aren’t doing terrible in PA (but their geographic base is odd)

Where else is it anemic besides FL? (and NV, pending more info)? Places like Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin seem to be doing very well in EV.

These are only two states where you can put some weight in the early voting.

Here is the breaking news. There is no way in hell Dems are going to win Ohio, Trump plus 9 state in a midterm year for unpopular democratic president. So, If I'm a Dem, i would rather see Ryan behind by 10pts than him tied or in couple percentages because that would mean other polls are screwed too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said with these conflicting polls the non Evangelical single person vote not 18/29 yr olds but Single person whom are mostly minority and single moms are underpolled that's why you have DeSantis plus 13 and Crist is ahead in a Listener poll 53/47 and DEMINGS in now only down 50/46 FL isn't all she wrote 🤞 my fingers for wave insurance Howard Dean said on MSNBC that Val DEMINGS will win he didn't say anything about Crist winning , a Victory poll has DEMINGS only down 50/46, told you FL isn't over right after Listening poll yesterday had Crist ahead 53/47

The R polls of course oversample Married Evangelical votes they are phone polls single people uses internet Polls

[wbrocks67]

We're approaching nearly 50% of the total 2020 final early vote in Arizona:

2020 (final early vote total): 2.47M (37.4% D, 37.0% R) - D+0.4
2022 (so far): 1.18M (39.3% D, 36.8% R) - D+2.5

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1588029642593779712?s=20&t=DvyMsvC...

Good news everyone: Nevada is being weird.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia:

Fairly decent improvement for Democrats along racial and gender lines in Wednesday's batch compared to the past few days. Largest weekday black vote share since Day 11; smallest weekday white vote share since Day 5.  

Worth noting that in-person turnout was approximately 125k, which means we saw roughly 20k ABMs returned on Wednesday. A total of 194,059 ABMs have been received, with approximately another 65k outstanding. That's a pretty good return rate at this point in the game by Georgia standards.

Perhaps we are going to see the final week's uptick in black share after all...

Day 17 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 145,009 voters cast ballots Wednesday, for a grand total of 2,092,284 votes.

Breakdown of Wednesday's voters:

Code:

85521 	White	58.98%
37961 	Black	26.18%
3241         Asian	2.24%
3308    	Latino	2.28%
14978 	Other	10.32%

82818	Female	57.11%
61724 	Male	        42.57%	
467          Other         0.32%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1210711	White	57.87%
611330	Black	29.22%
37599	Asian	1.80%
36111       Latino	1.73%
196533	Other	9.38%

1155447	Female	55.22%
932168	Male	        44.55%	
4669	        Other	0.23%

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Georgia:

Fairly decent improvement for Democrats along racial and gender lines in Wednesday's batch compared to the past few days. Largest weekday black vote share since Day 11; smallest weekday white vote share since Day 5.  

Worth noting that in-person turnout was approximately 125k, which means we saw roughly 20k ABMs returned on Wednesday. A total of 194,059 ABMs have been received, with approximately another 65k outstanding. That's a pretty good return rate at this point in the game by Georgia standards.

Perhaps we are going to see the final week's uptick in black share after all...

Day 17 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 145,009 voters cast ballots Wednesday, for a grand total of 2,092,284 votes.

Breakdown of Wednesday's voters:

Code:

85521 	White	58.98%
37961 	Black	26.18%
3241         Asian	2.24%
3308    	Latino	2.28%
14978 	Other	10.32%

82818	Female	57.11%
61724 	Male	        42.57%	
467          Other         0.32%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1210711	White	57.87%
611330	Black	29.22%
37599	Asian	1.80%
36111       Latino	1.73%
196533	Other	9.38%

1155447	Female	55.22%
932168	Male	        44.55%	
4669	        Other	0.23%

Are there breakdowns by age? In Nevada we're starting to see the average age of the electorate trickle down as more and more young voters turn out. Is that happening in GA?

[bilaps]

These NV numbers are still bad for Dems. Their Clark lead is below 8%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We only have 5 days we will see

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1588163502665072640

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA, NH, GA, AZ SEN are Lean D
WI, OH, NC, FL, UT are Tossups

I never bought users saying like Devil's and Eraserhead saying Red states are gone

Yesterday had DEMINGS down 2/4 pts and now NC is tied

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia:

Are there breakdowns by age? In Nevada we're starting to see the average age of the electorate trickle down as more and more young voters turn out. Is that happening in GA?

Yes, but not necessarily for all groups by day. Under-30 share is still below 8% (but ticking up), but here is a graph that shows the 65+ category for 2018, 2020 and 2022 for each day of EV (scroll to the bottom):

https://georgiavotes.com/graphs.php

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is an underpolled of Afro American votes in Red states including WI SEN

I DID THE POLLS IN COLLEGE NATURALLY I GOT PHONE POLLS R EVANGELICAL AND CAMPUS POLLS D COLLEGE STUDENTS WHICH DO INTERNET POLLS

All my Female TAs we're D and College Professional we're R

[wbrocks67]

I don't think anyone can decipher what is going anymore with Clark's mail at this point. Is the tweet above trying to say that there ended up being more in the 11/1 total so there may end up being more ballots that got added that were supposed to be in 11/2? I'm having a hard time keeping up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

More Ds are gonna vote same day than before because it's no pandemic like last time Ds still outnumbering Rs 47/35

We only got 4 days and 12 hrs to go

Mon that's it

[Skill and Chance]

Regarding early voting, VA (a state that required an excuse to vote early prior to 2020) went from 63% early in 2020 to 36% early in 2021.  Many people were still quite concerned about COVID a year ago, so I would expect this to drop off even further this year.  It would be reasonable to expect a major decline in early voting in states without a pre-COVID EV/mail-in tradition.   

So I do think R's are getting ahead of themselves celebrating the drop in Dem EV from 2020.