Early Voting thread.

[It’s so Joever]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

Yeah, the Monmouth poll broke this down - something like the early vote was Fetterman 68/25 but the E-day vote was Oz 54/41. So Oz will definitely win the e-day vote, but 40% is still pretty substantial vote for Dems on Election Day. I think the VBM # overall was only 25% of the electorate, so most PA'ians are going to vote on Election Day still.

So the relatively anemic early vote for Dems really is bad for them outside of PA.

[wbrocks67]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

Yeah, the Monmouth poll broke this down - something like the early vote was Fetterman 68/25 but the E-day vote was Oz 54/41. So Oz will definitely win the e-day vote, but 40% is still pretty substantial vote for Dems on Election Day. I think the VBM # overall was only 25% of the electorate, so most PA'ians are going to vote on Election Day still.

So the relatively anemic early vote for Dems really is bad for them outside of PA.

Given we had 2.6M VBMs in a pandemic presidential year, and we're on track for over 50% of that in a midterm year, not sure how that's anemic. There's also no precedence beyond 2020 for PA for VBM to compare it to.

[Hollywood]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

Is what you're seeing similar to what TargetEarly is suggesting?

Right now, this is what they estimate for WA, 7 days out:

2018 - 828K - D 54, R 36
2022 - 869K - D 58, R 30

I would find it hard to believe that Ds are actually doing better than 2018 at this same time. Unless you're data is showing similar to what the primary this year showed?

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers. 

2) Comparing 2022 to 2018 is erroneous. Trends in early voting turnout and demographics have significantly changed since 2020. Democrats had a 54.7-29.9% lead in the 2021 VA Race, 47-38% lead in 2020, and a 48-42% lead in 2018.  The Republican won VA in 2021, and lost in both 2018 and 2020.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2021?state=VA

3) Due to their campaign strategy, Democrats need to run up their numbers with huge turnout in the early vote/absentee/VBM. 

4) The real problem for Democrats is that they aren't able to retain/turnout many of their 2020 supporters, while Republicans are running up the Trump and anti-Biden (Presidential disapproval) Voters.  In VA, Biden won 54-44% in 2020, but the breakdown of these voters was 48-44% in 2021.  Also, Polls indicated that the undecided Indies/third party voters were leaning Republican.

Your first point makes an argument against using Targetsmart modeling, while your second point makes an argument BY USING Targetsmart modeling. Like, pick a lane dude.

No I'm not.  TargetSmart is modeling 2022.  The results from 2020, 2021, and 2018 are election results.  We can extrapolate from exit polls and breakdowns of early pre-election day votes.  A Democrat split of around 55-30% among pre-election day voters is consistent with the results and polls.

[It’s so Joever]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

Yeah, the Monmouth poll broke this down - something like the early vote was Fetterman 68/25 but the E-day vote was Oz 54/41. So Oz will definitely win the e-day vote, but 40% is still pretty substantial vote for Dems on Election Day. I think the VBM # overall was only 25% of the electorate, so most PA'ians are going to vote on Election Day still.

So the relatively anemic early vote for Dems really is bad for them outside of PA.

Given we had 2.6M VBMs in a pandemic presidential year, and we're on track for over 50% of that in a midterm year, not sure how that's anemic. There's also no precedence beyond 2020 for PA for VBM to compare it to.

I meant outside of PA. Dems by registration aren’t doing terrible in PA (but their geographic base is odd)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

Yeah, the Monmouth poll broke this down - something like the early vote was Fetterman 68/25 but the E-day vote was Oz 54/41. So Oz will definitely win the e-day vote, but 40% is still pretty substantial vote for Dems on Election Day. I think the VBM # overall was only 25% of the electorate, so most PA'ians are going to vote on Election Day still.

If we're going to use postal abbreviations to create words for state residents, how about PAtrons or PAgans (or even PAPArazzi)?

[wbrocks67]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

Yeah, the Monmouth poll broke this down - something like the early vote was Fetterman 68/25 but the E-day vote was Oz 54/41. So Oz will definitely win the e-day vote, but 40% is still pretty substantial vote for Dems on Election Day. I think the VBM # overall was only 25% of the electorate, so most PA'ians are going to vote on Election Day still.

So the relatively anemic early vote for Dems really is bad for them outside of PA.

Given we had 2.6M VBMs in a pandemic presidential year, and we're on track for over 50% of that in a midterm year, not sure how that's anemic. There's also no precedence beyond 2020 for PA for VBM to compare it to.

I meant outside of PA. Dems by registration aren’t doing terrible in PA (but their geographic base is odd)

Where else is it anemic besides FL? (and NV, pending more info)? Places like Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin seem to be doing very well in EV.

[It’s so Joever]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

Yeah, the Monmouth poll broke this down - something like the early vote was Fetterman 68/25 but the E-day vote was Oz 54/41. So Oz will definitely win the e-day vote, but 40% is still pretty substantial vote for Dems on Election Day. I think the VBM # overall was only 25% of the electorate, so most PA'ians are going to vote on Election Day still.

So the relatively anemic early vote for Dems really is bad for them outside of PA.

Given we had 2.6M VBMs in a pandemic presidential year, and we're on track for over 50% of that in a midterm year, not sure how that's anemic. There's also no precedence beyond 2020 for PA for VBM to compare it to.

I meant outside of PA. Dems by registration aren’t doing terrible in PA (but their geographic base is odd)

Where else is it anemic besides FL? (and NV, pending more info)? Places like Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin seem to be doing very well in EV.

In all of those except WI it’s Dem areas lagging behind their 2020 early vote numbers by a lot more than rurals.

[Hollywood]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA

Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

Again... I'm ignoring the early vote turnout and margins from 2018.  Democrats and Republicans have changed their voting habits.  The Democrat strategy is to run-up and lock-in early votes.  It's a data point that polls captured in 2021.  Democrats had huge early-vote margins in VA, but Republicans overtook them within the final week of early voting and on election day.  I tossed out the 2018 model long ago.  

Also, it's important to note that we are not getting numbers from Republican counties of Arizona, because they aren't immediately counting early votes. Aside from Maricopa and Pima counties providing daily reports, other counties are only giving us numbers on a weekly basis.  Yet, Democrat only a 35,000 vote lead.  So yes.  I think Republicans are over-performing.  According to a few polls, Republicans will have a 3-2 Margin among the remaining 'certain' or 'likely' voters.  

I buy that but do you have a source for those polls?

Off the top of my head, the Fox Poll that just came out shows it.  Already voted shows 46% of Ds and 29% of Rs, and among certain voters it shows that 66% of GOP and 47% D remain.  
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/11/AZ-crosstabs_Sen-Gov-General_conducted-October-26-30_released-November-1-2022.pdf

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

Is what you're seeing similar to what TargetEarly is suggesting?

Right now, this is what they estimate for WA, 7 days out:

2018 - 828K - D 54, R 36
2022 - 869K - D 58, R 30

I would find it hard to believe that Ds are actually doing better than 2018 at this same time. Unless you're data is showing similar to what the primary this year showed?

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers. 

2) Comparing 2022 to 2018 is erroneous. Trends in early voting turnout and demographics have significantly changed since 2020. Democrats had a 54.7-29.9% lead in the 2021 VA Race, 47-38% lead in 2020, and a 48-42% lead in 2018.  The Republican won VA in 2021, and lost in both 2018 and 2020.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2021?state=VA

3) Due to their campaign strategy, Democrats need to run up their numbers with huge turnout in the early vote/absentee/VBM. 

4) The real problem for Democrats is that they aren't able to retain/turnout many of their 2020 supporters, while Republicans are running up the Trump and anti-Biden (Presidential disapproval) Voters.  In VA, Biden won 54-44% in 2020, but the breakdown of these voters was 48-44% in 2021.  Also, Polls indicated that the undecided Indies/third party voters were leaning Republican.

Your first point makes an argument against using Targetsmart modeling, while your second point makes an argument BY USING Targetsmart modeling. Like, pick a lane dude.

No I'm not.  TargetSmart is modeling 2022.  The results from 2020, 2021, and 2018 are election results.  We can extrapolate from exit polls and breakdowns of early pre-election day votes.  A Democrat split of around 55-30% among pre-election day voters is consistent with the results and polls.

That 54-29 number you quote is still using TargetSmart's modeling algorithm, from back when they were modeling the 2021 election cycle. Change the dropdown to "registered party" and see what happens. You can also see the eventual inaccuracy of their model as they have the "final electorate" (including eday) at 48%-35% in 2021 VA.

They've changed their model, so it might be more accurate this time, who knows? But I was just pointing out the inconsistency of your arguments.

[wbrocks67]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

Yeah, the Monmouth poll broke this down - something like the early vote was Fetterman 68/25 but the E-day vote was Oz 54/41. So Oz will definitely win the e-day vote, but 40% is still pretty substantial vote for Dems on Election Day. I think the VBM # overall was only 25% of the electorate, so most PA'ians are going to vote on Election Day still.

So the relatively anemic early vote for Dems really is bad for them outside of PA.

Given we had 2.6M VBMs in a pandemic presidential year, and we're on track for over 50% of that in a midterm year, not sure how that's anemic. There's also no precedence beyond 2020 for PA for VBM to compare it to.

I meant outside of PA. Dems by registration aren’t doing terrible in PA (but their geographic base is odd)

Where else is it anemic besides FL? (and NV, pending more info)? Places like Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin seem to be doing very well in EV.

In all of those except WI it’s Dem areas lagging behind their 2020 early vote numbers by a lot more than rurals.

I don't think it's really prudent to compare them to 2020 at this point. Most of those are comparable to 2018, though.

[It’s so Joever]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

Yeah, the Monmouth poll broke this down - something like the early vote was Fetterman 68/25 but the E-day vote was Oz 54/41. So Oz will definitely win the e-day vote, but 40% is still pretty substantial vote for Dems on Election Day. I think the VBM # overall was only 25% of the electorate, so most PA'ians are going to vote on Election Day still.

So the relatively anemic early vote for Dems really is bad for them outside of PA.

Given we had 2.6M VBMs in a pandemic presidential year, and we're on track for over 50% of that in a midterm year, not sure how that's anemic. There's also no precedence beyond 2020 for PA for VBM to compare it to.

I meant outside of PA. Dems by registration aren’t doing terrible in PA (but their geographic base is odd)

Where else is it anemic besides FL? (and NV, pending more info)? Places like Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin seem to be doing very well in EV.

In all of those except WI it’s Dem areas lagging behind their 2020 early vote numbers by a lot more than rurals.

I don't think it's really prudent to compare them to 2020 at this point. Most of those are comparable to 2018, though.

Okay I am going to say this, I want you to LISTEN.

Voting. Patterns. Have. Changed. Because. Of. Covid-19.

[prag_prog]

I wonder if Dems in swing states are more energized to vote than Dems in blue/deep blue states. Atleast the polls and EV data so far is signalling a scenario like this

[wbrocks67]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

Yeah, the Monmouth poll broke this down - something like the early vote was Fetterman 68/25 but the E-day vote was Oz 54/41. So Oz will definitely win the e-day vote, but 40% is still pretty substantial vote for Dems on Election Day. I think the VBM # overall was only 25% of the electorate, so most PA'ians are going to vote on Election Day still.

So the relatively anemic early vote for Dems really is bad for them outside of PA.

Given we had 2.6M VBMs in a pandemic presidential year, and we're on track for over 50% of that in a midterm year, not sure how that's anemic. There's also no precedence beyond 2020 for PA for VBM to compare it to.

I meant outside of PA. Dems by registration aren’t doing terrible in PA (but their geographic base is odd)

Where else is it anemic besides FL? (and NV, pending more info)? Places like Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin seem to be doing very well in EV.

In all of those except WI it’s Dem areas lagging behind their 2020 early vote numbers by a lot more than rurals.

I don't think it's really prudent to compare them to 2020 at this point. Most of those are comparable to 2018, though.

Okay I am going to say this, I want you to LISTEN.

Voting. Patterns. Have. Changed. Because. Of. Covid-19.

I imagine some peoples have, but in states that have used early voting before, like Wisconsin and Ohio, back to 2018, and have similar voting counts to that year, I don't see why you couldn't compare. Just like we're comparing GA to 2018 (and 2020/2021) because they have the same exact set up, and I'd assume those states are a little less likely to have huge changes in voting patterns considering they've been doing the same thing for years now, compared to other states that have made big changes in the last few years (like PA)

[It’s so Joever]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

Yeah, the Monmouth poll broke this down - something like the early vote was Fetterman 68/25 but the E-day vote was Oz 54/41. So Oz will definitely win the e-day vote, but 40% is still pretty substantial vote for Dems on Election Day. I think the VBM # overall was only 25% of the electorate, so most PA'ians are going to vote on Election Day still.

So the relatively anemic early vote for Dems really is bad for them outside of PA.

Given we had 2.6M VBMs in a pandemic presidential year, and we're on track for over 50% of that in a midterm year, not sure how that's anemic. There's also no precedence beyond 2020 for PA for VBM to compare it to.

I meant outside of PA. Dems by registration aren’t doing terrible in PA (but their geographic base is odd)

Where else is it anemic besides FL? (and NV, pending more info)? Places like Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin seem to be doing very well in EV.

In all of those except WI it’s Dem areas lagging behind their 2020 early vote numbers by a lot more than rurals.

I don't think it's really prudent to compare them to 2020 at this point. Most of those are comparable to 2018, though.

Okay I am going to say this, I want you to LISTEN.

Voting. Patterns. Have. Changed. Because. Of. Covid-19.

I imagine some peoples have, but in states that have used early voting before, like Wisconsin and Ohio, back to 2018, and have similar voting counts to that year, I don't see why you couldn't compare. Just like we're comparing GA to 2018 (and 2020/2021) because they have the same exact set up, and I'd assume those states are a little less likely to have huge changes in voting patterns considering they've been doing the same thing for years now, compared to other states that have made big changes in the last few years (like PA)

Oh my gosh this is exhausting. Voting patterns have changed because Dems now have learned to embrace mail ins and early voting due to Covid while Rs have become more skeptical of it. Not because there was no such f**king thing as early voting before. Sorry for sounding rude but I frankly don’t understand what is so difficult about this concept. The only case you can make an exception are in the couple states which had universal vbm in 2018.

[Hollywood]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

Is what you're seeing similar to what TargetEarly is suggesting?

Right now, this is what they estimate for WA, 7 days out:

2018 - 828K - D 54, R 36
2022 - 869K - D 58, R 30

I would find it hard to believe that Ds are actually doing better than 2018 at this same time. Unless you're data is showing similar to what the primary this year showed?

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers. 

2) Comparing 2022 to 2018 is erroneous. Trends in early voting turnout and demographics have significantly changed since 2020. Democrats had a 54.7-29.9% lead in the 2021 VA Race, 47-38% lead in 2020, and a 48-42% lead in 2018.  The Republican won VA in 2021, and lost in both 2018 and 2020.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2021?state=VA

3) Due to their campaign strategy, Democrats need to run up their numbers with huge turnout in the early vote/absentee/VBM. 

4) The real problem for Democrats is that they aren't able to retain/turnout many of their 2020 supporters, while Republicans are running up the Trump and anti-Biden (Presidential disapproval) Voters.  In VA, Biden won 54-44% in 2020, but the breakdown of these voters was 48-44% in 2021.  Also, Polls indicated that the undecided Indies/third party voters were leaning Republican.

Your first point makes an argument against using Targetsmart modeling, while your second point makes an argument BY USING Targetsmart modeling. Like, pick a lane dude.

No I'm not.  TargetSmart is modeling 2022.  The results from 2020, 2021, and 2018 are election results.  We can extrapolate from exit polls and breakdowns of early pre-election day votes.  A Democrat split of around 55-30% among pre-election day voters is consistent with the results and polls.

That 54-29 number you quote is still using TargetSmart's modeling algorithm, from back when they were modeling the 2021 election cycle. Change the dropdown to "registered party" and see what happens. You can also see the eventual inaccuracy of their model as they have the "final electorate" (including eday) at 48%-35% in 2021 VA.

They've changed their model, so it might be more accurate this time, who knows? But I was just pointing out the inconsistency of your arguments.

I understand.  About a weeks ago I read summaries regarding the methodology TargetSmart utilizes.  There data is updated after the election to account for actual results.  They mention that 2018 and 2020 are updated as statistics are released from state election offices.  They have a handle on voter identification, because states like AZ provide it.  States without political identification are labeled 'unaffiliated'.   https://insights.targetsmart.com/the-targetsmart-voter-registration-dashboard.html

[Sestak]

Okay I am going to say this, I want you to LISTEN.

Voting. Patterns. Have. Changed. Because. Of. Covid-19.

And, thus, you would expect those changes to recede along with it.


Who are you trying to fool here? No one in Democratic strongholds is living or behaving comparably to November 2020. In lots of places they don’t even resemble November 2021, though that’s at least a closer comparison. The conditions that created some of the partisan polarisation over mail voting may still exist, but the conditions for the dramatic surge in urban area mail/early voting from the Dem side do not.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

I wonder if Dems in swing states are more energized to vote than Dems in blue/deep blue states. Atleast the polls and EV data so far is signalling a scenario like this

As a blue state early voter I totally buy this.

[2016]

I don't trust Target Smart. Bonier is the CO-CEO/Founder of Clarity Campaign Labs who are consistently releasing these far left Progressive Polls.

[It’s so Joever]

Okay I am going to say this, I want you to LISTEN.

Voting. Patterns. Have. Changed. Because. Of. Covid-19.

And, thus, you would expect those changes to recede along with it.


Who are you trying to fool here? No one in Democratic strongholds is living or behaving comparably to November 2020. In lots of places they don’t even resemble November 2021, though that’s at least a closer comparison. The conditions that created some of the partisan polarisation over mail voting may still exist, but the conditions for the dramatic surge in urban area mail/early voting from the Dem side do not.

Cool.
Explain the fact these same patterns held up in the primaries.
Explain the fact we have polls showing Ds are still far more likely to vote by Mail.

We have evidence that these trends have not died and are here for at least a while.

[Koharu]

In all of those except WI it’s Dem areas lagging behind their 2020 early vote numbers by a lot more than rurals.

It's just not appropriate to compare 2020 VBM data to 2022. In 2020, many states were encouraging VBM to prevent the spread of COVID. Even in states that didn't explicitly encourage it, people were being cautious. 2018 is fair game for comparisons, though of course many states now have more VBM infrastructure than they did in 2018 due to 2020.

While the pandemic is ongoing, vaccines are available and a significant portion of Americans have dropped doing things with COVID as a focus. So we just cannot expect VBM to be similar at all to 2020.

Edit: Oops, others have said this now. Dang broken keyboard making me super slow.

[It’s so Joever]

I don't trust Target Smart. Bonier is the CO-CEO/Founder of Clarity Campaign Labs who are consistently releasing these far left Progressive Polls.

Their objective voting numbers (registereds, total numbers) are fine. It’s just the models you should ignore.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia:

Day 16 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 136,848 voters cast ballots Tuesday, for a grand total of 1,947,275 votes.

Breakdown of Tuesday's voters:

Code:

83044 	White	60.68%
34561 	Black	25.26%
2915         Asian	2.13%
2711    	Latino	1.98%
13617 	Other	9.95%

76623	Female	55.99%
59821 	Male	        43.71%	
404          Other         0.30%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1125190	White	57.78%
573369	Black	29.44%
34358	Asian	1.76%
32803       Latino	1.68%
181555	Other	9.34%

1072629	Female	55.08%
870444	Male	        44.70%	
4202	        Other	0.22%

[It’s so Joever]

People should feel free to use data to prove their priors, but many are misusing it to do so.

1) Those Ralston reports are based on the vote that’s in right now. Given that the GOP cleans up on Election Day, it’s absolutely brutal for there to be any scenario where Laxalt is within 1 point in the early vote. If 90% of the vote is early, that just means he needs to win Election Day by 10 points or so.

2) Comparisons to 2018 are only valid if there is evidence of the voting method pattern being similar to 2018 (primary results, polling, etc) I’ve seen examples of states where it resembles 2020, I’ve seen zero evidence of places where it resembles 2018.

Like I said above, I think NC is comparable to 2018, since voting patterns/systems are mostly the same as then. (similar amount of votes in around this time too)

This is just objectively ridiculous. Covid-19 and Trump have changed voting patterns for at least a couple years now. Yes Covid is not a salient issue anymore, but the skepticism of early voting remains a thing among the MAGA movement as evidenced by RoJo. There is zero primary, special, or 2021 data to back up your point, are you implying that somehow after late August everyone decided to randomly switch voting patterns?  

I still have yet to hear any of the “oh comparing 2022 and 2018 is legit” posters respond to the fact that in every primary, special, and the 2021 elections, Ds still disproportionately voted by Mail and the Mail E-Day gap was as large as 2020.

[kwabbit]

Georgia:

Day 16 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 136,848 voters cast ballots Tuesday, for a grand total of 1,947,275 votes.

Breakdown of Tuesday's voters:

Code:

83044 White 60.68%
34561 Black 25.26%
2915         Asian 2.13%
2711    Latino 1.98%
13617 Other 9.95%

76623 Female 55.99%
59821 Male         43.71% 
404          Other         0.30%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1125190 White 57.78%
573369 Black 29.44%
34358 Asian 1.76%
32803       Latino 1.68%
181555 Other 9.34%

1072629 Female 55.08%
870444 Male         44.70% 
4202         Other 0.22%

Thank you very much for presenting this info in a easy to read manner. What’s the best guess on final Black%, 26%?. Turnout is seemingly at about 45% of the eventual amount at this point.

[Adam Griffin]

Thank you very much for presenting this info in a easy to read manner. What’s the best guess on final Black%, 26%?. Turnout is seemingly at about 45% of the eventual amount at this point.

In regards to 1) final EV composition, or 2) all voters (EV+ED)?

In the case of 1), 28.5% is about as low as it can go at this point.

In the case of 2), there is room for interpretation. Do we use the explicitly-identified black RV percentage (like the one I'm quoting in my daily updates), or do we use the actual percentage that includes voters not properly identified by SoS (i.e. the ones currently stuck in the "unknown/other" categories)?

• In terms of RV-identified percentage, 27% is the lowest it has been since 2006 (2010 & 2020)
• In terms of actual percentage among all voters, 28% is the lowest is has been since 2006 (2010)

Between 2016-2021: in terms of RV-identified percentage, it's been between 27.3% and 29.0%; in terms of actual percentage, it's been between 30.2% and 31.9%.