Early Voting thread.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

All the media types talking about how "youth turnout is better than 2018" are disingenuously quoting raw votes rather than percentage of the electorate, and those saying it's better than 2020 are disingenuously comparing in-person raw votes (to a cycle where hordes of people voted by mail). Really disgusting stuff from the pundit class.

Raw vote totals don't matter in comparisons like this: electoral share matters.

Here's a map using TargetSmart's data showing what share of the EV electorate 9 days before Election Day the under-50 category comprises this year compared to the same point in 2018. For instance, if a state's share was 25% at this point in 2018 and is 22% this year, it's shaded with the "-3" coloration. Also worth noting that in some of these states, I'm pretty sure TargetSmart's data is just broken, so take individual results that look extreme with a grain of salt (but take in the broader picture):

Oh wow we're completely f@cked.

[Adam Griffin]

Oh wow we're completely f@cked.

[bilaps]

Slow day in Nevada on Sunday.

In Washoe, Reps actually gained 100 or so votes and county margin is now 1,7K for Dems.

In percentages it's 40,9% vs 38,1%

In Clark, Reps won IP by a 1000 votes, Dems won mail by 1,3k so Dems added 300 and now have 20,8k vote lead.

In percentages it's 42,8% vs 34,1%

So total Dem firewall for Clark + Washoe is 22,5k votes as of this morning.

So, the biggest question before week 2 is about turnout. Will we see a significantly big number of mail ballots being processed daily and if so will the Dems hold the margin of winning around 50% of those votes. Because I don't expect IP vote to be significantly changing from day to day prior to election day. Reps are doing well in percentages right now. Dems need mail surge next week. Second question is will Republicans tunout in big numbers on election day because they will win that vote probably comfortably and EV IP turnout isn't great. Also, we won't have rurals until the end of the week.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know CCM is gonna win due to Native Americans and Latinos and females the margin of Error for Ds not Rs are blks, Latinos and Females non Evangelical whites


Reid was in a similar situation in 2010 and beat Sharon Angle, a tie for LAXALT isn't gonna stand up to Early voting

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SarahBurris/status/1586843524120850434

I stopped reading at MSNBC.

Is there a source on this? If it’s even remotely true, it must have been in the last few days because I’m seeing it exceptionally low like everywhere else.

Simon Rosenberg (a Democratic strategist) indicated on Twitter yesterday that youth turnout is indeed running below 2020.  The tweet thread has a number of other interesting nuggets; I recommend reading the whole thing: https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1586726446747336706

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Nevada is now all-mail ballot state in the sense that unless a voter actively opts out of receiving a mail-ballot, they'll be mailed one. This has some obvious implications for ballot returns: election offices will begin to be inundated by ballots over next few days and the numbers will crank up massively with each day until EDay.

2020 provides no guide in this respect because Democrats were told to mail their ballots in ASAP due to post office issues.

[It’s so Joever]

So I know everyone loves to hate on TargetSmart, but they do provide some important info. Assuming they are not just completely up actual turnout numbers, you can get an accurate account of votes per CD and that is not exactly something you can "fake" like a model. So I took the number of current early votes in each district as a percentage of total 2020 early vote. Now I know someone is already about to say "but the early vote is now far more R-leaning than before" but primaries do not indicate that, and there is no way people were much more scared of Covid-19 in July 2022 than now.

One last thing, do not compare CD's in different states, I should not have to explain why. Look at intra-state differences lol.

These are the results:

Updated:

We are only a week (and a day), the rates are increasing and CA-22 is screwing up my scale. I may have to change it soon.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1587118683347857408?s=46&t=dVhJuwc...
Latest Nevada update seems pretty bad.

The difference in 2022 is the Dem reg edge in Clark is already below 10 percent, which is the margin a Dem statewide needs to win Clark with to feel comfortable. Biden won Nevada by just under 10 but did so because Dems won Washoe and there were not enough rural votes. So Dems really need Clark indies to split evenly or break their way or it’s sayonara. And they need Washoe, too.

Bottom line: We are about where we were in the last midterm – specifics below – but the difference for Dems is they had Donald Trump as a motivator and did well and this time the Rs have Joe Biden as a motivator. The Dems cannot feel warm and fuzzy with a statewide lead under 3 percent. As James Carville might have said: It’s the indies, stupid.

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1587118683347857408?s=46&t=dVhJuwc...

Latest Nevada update seems pretty bad.

It does, I'll admit. The big caveat, however, is that mail has reportedly been very slow to process this cycle. We've really got to wait and see how that develops over this week. I still find it hard to believe turnout in Clark would be so low overall.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1587118683347857408?s=46&t=dVhJuwc...
Latest Nevada update seems pretty bad.

The difference in 2022 is the Dem reg edge in Clark is already below 10 percent, which is the margin a Dem statewide needs to win Clark with to feel comfortable. Biden won Nevada by just under 10 but did so because Dems won Washoe and there were not enough rural votes. So Dems really need Clark indies to split evenly or break their way or it’s sayonara. And they need Washoe, too.

Bottom line: We are about where we were in the last midterm – specifics below – but the difference for Dems is they had Donald Trump as a motivator and did well and this time the Rs have Joe Biden as a motivator. The Dems cannot feel warm and fuzzy with a statewide lead under 3 percent. As James Carville might have said: It’s the indies, stupid.

Oh my gosh, I am savoring this data.

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1587118683347857408?s=46&t=dVhJuwc...
Latest Nevada update seems pretty bad.

The difference in 2022 is the Dem reg edge in Clark is already below 10 percent, which is the margin a Dem statewide needs to win Clark with to feel comfortable. Biden won Nevada by just under 10 but did so because Dems won Washoe and there were not enough rural votes. So Dems really need Clark indies to split evenly or break their way or it’s sayonara. And they need Washoe, too.

Bottom line: We are about where we were in the last midterm – specifics below – but the difference for Dems is they had Donald Trump as a motivator and did well and this time the Rs have Joe Biden as a motivator. The Dems cannot feel warm and fuzzy with a statewide lead under 3 percent. As James Carville might have said: It’s the indies, stupid.

Oh my gosh, I am savoring this data.

If you were you'd see that his models at the end of the post still point to a Democratic victory in both big races. This is the most nervous I've been about Nevada so far, but it's still not "forumlurker savoring" territory.

[Ferguson97]

Isn't 2022 the first time that Nevada is doing an all-VBM election? I feel like that alone makes comparisons to 2018 somewhat silly.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1587118683347857408?s=46&t=dVhJuwc...

Latest Nevada update seems pretty bad.

It does, I'll admit. The big caveat, however, is that mail has reportedly been very slow to process this cycle. We've really got to wait and see how that develops over this week. I still find it hard to believe turnout in Clark would be so low overall.

This. Clark barely counted any mail in ballots this weekend, so again, we don't know if it's just slow processing or actual low return rates.

[soundchaser]

Isn't 2022 the first time that Nevada is doing an all-VBM election? I feel like that alone makes comparisons to 2018 somewhat silly.

It is! Ralston has repeatedly called it "an orange when all you have are apples" (or something along those lines).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If we lose NV or AZ it will be Gov Lombardo and Lake but SEN Kelly and CCM will go back to the SEN


Thats why OH is so intriguing it did the same as AZ in 2018 Ducey and Sinema won and DeWine and Brown won we can see split voting in Gov Kemp, Lombardo, DeWine and Sen CCM, Kelly, Warnock and Ryan

[Ferguson97]

Here's what the models say based on the vote so far (minus those rurals):

---If both parties were to hold 90 percent of their bases and tie among indies, the Dem candidate would win 48.9-46.4.

---If the Repubs hold 5 percent more of their base than Dems and indies are tied, it’s 46.9-46.4, Dems.

---If Repubs win indies by 5, and bases hold, it’s 48.2-46.8, Dems.

--If Repubs hold 5 percent more of their base and win indies by 5, it’s 48.8-46.2, GOP.

---If Repubs win indies by 10, and bases hold, it’s 47.8-47.5, Dems.

---If Repubs have a 5 percent base advantage and win indies by 10, it’s 49.1-45.9 GOP.

Absolutely nuts that Laxalt could win independents by 10 and still lose

[soundchaser]

Absolutely nuts that Laxalt could win independents by 10 and still lose

There's a reason Nevada is "Titanium Tilt D."

[wbrocks67]

8 days from election, Georgia EV

2018: 1.35M (63.3% white, 32.4% black)
2020: 3.02M (61.9% white, 30.7% black)
2022: 1.65M (62.2% white, 32.5% black)

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1587122442996256772

[Ferguson97]

8 days from election, Georgia EV

2018: 1.35M (63.3% white, 32.4% black)
2020: 3.02M (61.9% white, 30.7% black)
2022: 1.65M (62.2% white, 32.5% black)

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1587122442996256772

% share of turnout was lower for both white and Black in 2020, I assume that was due to turnout from Hispanic/Asians?

[wbrocks67]

North Carolina seems kind of instructive, at least comparing to 2018 since they had the same set-up then with actual party reg, and early vote system has pretty much remained the same

8 days out:
2018: 1.13M (D+8.9)
2022: 1.15M (D+6.6)

At least so far, only down 2.3% from a blue wave year doesn't seem too shabby.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia:

Day 14 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 26,314 voters cast ballots Sunday, for a grand total of 1,660,633 votes.

Breakdown of Sunday's voters:

Code:

11417 	White	43.39%
9741 	Black	37.02%
1207         Asian	4.59%
801    	Latino	3.04%
3148 	Other	11.96%

15183	Female	57.70%
10991 	Male	        41.77%	
140          Other         0.53%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

952071	White	57.33%
499804	Black	30.10%
28528	Asian	1.72%
27234       Latino	1.64%
152996	Other	9.21%

915084	Female	55.10%
742132	Male	        44.69%	
3417	        Other	0.21%

[wbrocks67]

8 days from election, Georgia EV

2018: 1.35M (63.3% white, 32.4% black)
2020: 3.02M (61.9% white, 30.7% black)
2022: 1.65M (62.2% white, 32.5% black)

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1587122442996256772

% share of turnout was lower for both white and Black in 2020, I assume that was due to turnout from Hispanic/Asians?

Yep, Asian/Hispanic were 3.2% in 2018, 5.6% in 2020, but 3.8% this year.

[soundchaser]

Georgia:

Day 14 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 26,314 voters cast ballots Sunday, for a grand total of 1,660,633 votes.

Breakdown of Sunday's voters:

Code:

11417 	White	43.39%
9741 	Black	37.02%
1207         Asian	4.59%
801    	Latino	3.04%
3148 	Other	11.96%

15183	Female	57.70%
10991 	Male	        41.77%	
140          Other         0.53%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

952071	White	57.33%
499804	Black	30.10%
28528	Asian	1.72%
27234       Latino	1.64%
152996	Other	9.21%

915084	Female	55.10%
742132	Male	        44.69%	
3417	        Other	0.21%

Pretty clear Souls to the Polls remains a strong factor.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia:

Day 14 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 26,314 voters cast ballots Sunday, for a grand total of 1,660,633 votes.

Breakdown of Sunday's voters:

Code:

11417 	White	43.39%
9741 	Black	37.02%
1207         Asian	4.59%
801    	Latino	3.04%
3148 	Other	11.96%

15183	Female	57.70%
10991 	Male	        41.77%	
140          Other         0.53%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

952071	White	57.33%
499804	Black	30.10%
28528	Asian	1.72%
27234       Latino	1.64%
152996	Other	9.21%

915084	Female	55.10%
742132	Male	        44.69%	
3417	        Other	0.21%

Pretty clear Souls to the Polls remains a strong factor.

S[inks]ttiest Sunday in modern times for Democrats - though this is the first cycle where we had a decent chunk of black counties hosting more than 1 Sunday of EV:

[Unelectable Bystander]

People should feel free to use data to prove their priors, but many are misusing it to do so.

1) Those Ralston reports are based on the vote that’s in right now. Given that the GOP cleans up on Election Day, it’s absolutely brutal for there to be any scenario where Laxalt is within 1 point in the early vote. If 90% of the vote is early, that just means he needs to win Election Day by 10 points or so.

2) Comparisons to 2018 are only valid if there is evidence of the voting method pattern being similar to 2018 (primary results, polling, etc) I’ve seen examples of states where it resembles 2020, I’ve seen zero evidence of places where it resembles 2018.