Early Voting thread.

[bilaps]

Not great saturday for Dems in Clark where they gained only about 800 votes total on Republicans with VBM+IP. Their Clark firewall is now 20,5k votes. And in percentages it's 43,0% vs 33,9%. In Washoe better results as they gained 400 votes on Republicans and their margin is now 1,8k votes.

So total firewall for them is now 22,3k votes.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, we're gonna be up in the air in Clark for a little while longer because we have no idea if they're just slow at counting/processing, or it's just less mail ballots being received.

[It’s so Joever]

In Virginia the early voting percentages are very similar to 2021 when Youngkin won.

[Unelectable Bystander]

In Virginia the early voting percentages are very similar to 2021 when Youngkin won.

What’s it looking like? Still high in the southwest, Richmond, and exurban Nova?

[It’s so Joever]

In Virginia the early voting percentages are very similar to 2021 when Youngkin won.

What’s it looking like? Still high in the southwest, Richmond, and exurban Nova?

High in Republican areas, low in Democratic areas, from Hampton Roads, NOVA, and even Richmond. Exurban NOVA has the highest.

[Unelectable Bystander]

We’ll have to wait to see more polls still, but I’m now thinking that Masters will win before Oz does. Not only are R’s doing better in Arizona in the early vote than Pennsylvania, but they might need more out of the early vote in Pennsylvania. Why?

Kelly’s 2022 primary received the same relative share of E-day votes as Biden did (7%), but senate republicans received 22% E-day compared to Trump’s 15%. In other words the gaping might still be growing, not shrinking.

In PA, senate democrats went from Biden’s share of around 40% to 57%, while senate republicans went from 81% to 91%. This means that the GOP can’t expect to win E-day votes by quite as much as Trump did, so they probably need early vote improvement over Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In Virginia the early voting percentages are very similar to 2021 when Youngkin won.

Similar to the same point in 2021, or to the final 2021 percentages?

[It’s so Joever]

In Virginia the early voting percentages are very similar to 2021 when Youngkin won.

Similar to the same point in 2021, or to the final 2021 percentages?

Final, I am looking at my usual percent of Early Votes this year so far compared to 2020 final. Doing the same thing with 2021 final instead of 2022 the results are very similar.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

In Virginia the early voting percentages are very similar to 2021 when Youngkin won.

This is remarkable if true, given than in most of Virginia, there’s almost nothing to vote on.

Literally the only race on our ballot in Montgomery County, VA is an ultra-safe Republican House seat.
I will vote on Election Day just to get the sticker. But even as a professor of American politics, this seems like a waste of time. Odd year elections suck.

[windjammer]

I'm not an expert or anything but Reading all the informations we're heading to a republican wave

[Dani Rose]

I'm not an expert or anything but Reading all the informations we're heading to a republican wave

When we're doing better in Pennsylvania and Georgia than we were in 2020...?

[UncleSam]

I'm not an expert or anything but Reading all the informations we're heading to a republican wave

When we're doing better in Pennsylvania and Georgia than we were in 2020...?

Georgia is pretty debatable, and PA has relatively limited early voting / Rs vote on ED there historically. I don’t think these two states are great counterexamples.

With that being said I also don’t think the EV overall points to a gigantic wave. It doesn’t preclude one, but we aren’t seeing D turnout collapse either. If Rs win big it will be because of Is breaking their way and their own turnout on ED being through the roof, not because of the EV or because Ds failed to show up.

[Dani Rose]

I'm not an expert or anything but Reading all the informations we're heading to a republican wave

When we're doing better in Pennsylvania and Georgia than we were in 2020...?

Georgia is pretty debatable, and PA has relatively limited early voting / Rs vote on ED there historically. I don’t think these two states are great counterexamples.

With that being said I also don’t think the EV overall points to a gigantic wave. It doesn’t preclude one, but we aren’t seeing D turnout collapse either. If Rs win big it will be because of Is breaking their way and their own turnout on ED being through the roof, not because of the EV or because Ds failed to show up.

Fair enough on the first point, I just use them because they're probably the most contentious, hotly-debated battleground states this cycle. Personally, I think New Mexico is a better example of a state that's going really, really well for us, but it's sort of slipped beneath discussion as well.

[Nyvin]

I'm not an expert or anything but Reading all the informations we're heading to a republican wave

Nevada doesn't look good, I'll say that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1586761705446596610

[wbrocks67]

I'm not an expert or anything but Reading all the informations we're heading to a republican wave

Nevada doesn't look good, I'll say that.

How so? You can't really make an argument, either way at this point. In person turnout is way down, you could argue that GOP is waiting till Election Day, or their base is unenthusiastic too.

Dems actually doing better in Washoe at this point than you'd expect, and their Clark margin is basically what it was around 2018.

The thing is, with Clark's mail in ballots, again, a "slower" day of processing could either mean that there actually was just less to process (which would be a problem for Dems), or if they are just slow at counting/processing.

[wbrocks67]

TargetEarly's Washington numbers:

2018 at this point (623k) was D+17
2020 at this point (1.89m) was D+28
2022 right now (652k) is D+26

This is "modeled" electorate, which again, I have a few doubts about with them. But if this is even remotely true, it does not add up at all to the polls.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/SarahBurris/status/1586843524120850434

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/SarahBurris/status/1586843524120850434

I stopped reading at MSNBC.

[MT Treasurer]

*snip*

I stopped reading at MSNBC.

That's OK.  I stopped reading at 'Forumlurker'.

If you had stopped reading at 'Forumlurker,' you wouldn’t have been able to post this response.

[GeorgiaModerate]

*snip*

I stopped reading at MSNBC.

That's OK.  I stopped reading at 'Forumlurker'.

If you had stopped reading at 'Forumlurker,' you wouldn’t have been able to post this response.

I have Mod-like powers.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/SarahBurris/status/1586843524120850434

I stopped reading at MSNBC.

Is there a source on this? If it’s even remotely true, it must have been in the last few days because I’m seeing it exceptionally low like everywhere else.

[Adam Griffin]

None of my usual sources have published Georgia's Sunday breakdowns yet, but I do know that:

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1586872942541115392

Pretty anemic (there were 20,744 votes last Sunday, but there were several more counties - including Cobb - that didn't have Sunday voting last weekend).

[Dani Rose]

https://twitter.com/SarahBurris/status/1586843524120850434

Please, cheeseheads, don't take my tiny nugget of hope away from me. Please don't tease me with the end of Ronson Johnson only to yank the rug out from under me again.

[Adam Griffin]

All the media types talking about how "youth turnout is better than 2018" are disingenuously quoting raw votes rather than percentage of the electorate, and those saying it's better than 2020 are disingenuously comparing in-person raw votes (to a cycle where hordes of people voted by mail). Really disgusting stuff from the pundit class.

Raw vote totals don't matter in comparisons like this: electoral share matters.

Here's a map using TargetSmart's data showing what share of the EV electorate 9 days before Election Day the under-50 category comprises this year compared to the same point in 2018. For instance, if a state's share was 25% at this point in 2018 and is 22% this year, it's shaded with the "-3" coloration. Also worth noting that in some of these states, I'm pretty sure TargetSmart's data is just broken, so take individual results that look extreme with a grain of salt (but take in the broader picture):