Early Voting thread.

[wbrocks67]

We should start getting some #s out of PA soon, mail-in ballots were sent out on 9/19.

[wbrocks67]

Good news for those who like election results in as timely of manner as possible, a judge in Maryland has ruled counties can begin processing received absentee ballots before election day. State law, which was waived in 2020 but used in 2022 primaries, said absentees could not begin to be processed until 2 days after the election.

https://twitter.com/Brad7News/status/1573394082126516224

If only PA would do the same....

[wbrocks67]

That's really awesome news RE: MI. Better than nothing, at least. Even if PA could get 2 days, that would be really incredible. Sadly, I don't have high hopes.

[wbrocks67]

More than 1M mail-in ballots requested & sent out in PA, interested to see how high it goes. 2.6M voted by mail in 2020.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1575497912620318722

[wbrocks67]

Sort of related - but good news given the high amount of PA mail-in ballots - judge ruled that voters *will be able to* fix/cure their ballots if any issues arise.

[wbrocks67]

I do think it's interesting that GOP has a slightly higher return rate right now than Dems. However, if it's anything like PA, it may be more of a microcosm of more GOP-leaning areas doing better and getting these ballots scanned (i.e. in PA, places like Philly and Montco are barely scanning any yet)

[wbrocks67]

I do think it's interesting that GOP has a slightly higher return rate right now than Dems. However, if it's anything like PA, it may be more of a microcosm of more GOP-leaning areas doing better and getting these ballots scanned (i.e. in PA, places like Philly and Montco are barely scanning any yet)

Cope.

Okay

[wbrocks67]

Doing a little googling Philadelphia is not scheduled to mail out domestic ballots until next week.

https://www.axios.com/local/philadelphia/2022/09/26/philadelphia-mail-in-voting-deadline

It's probably going to be at least another week before you see significant returns from Philly.

This is just playing with fire imo. Not a good look, especially for a county that Dems need to GOTV the most in.

[wbrocks67]

NGL, still concerning that Rep return rate continues to outdo Dems in every state, sans SD.

[wbrocks67]

Literally the only state that early voting tells us anything about is Nevada. Until Ralston starts doing his analyses, don’t freak out.

Not necessarily freaking out, but I think the people who returned ballots early shows enthusiasm. Could also easily just be who is reporting and at what pace, but it's something to keep an eye on imo.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not sure how much can be gleaned from stuff like this though, given in places like VA we really don't know how peoples voting pattern are going to end up.

[wbrocks67]

It's obv very early, but this is quite interesting.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1580593535023472640

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/13/22 for Ada County, Idaho:

• 41,717 ballots requested (up from 20,275 on this day in 2018)
• 7,613 ballots returned, for a rate of 18.2% (down from 27% on this day in 2018)

Republicans make up 48.6% of requested ballots, Democrats 26.5%, and Unaffiliated 24.23%

Any knowledge of what partisanship looked like in 2018?
Wither way its still BRUTAL for Dems because they should be leading in this type of voting, even in redder areas.

I mean, Idaho's partisan registration is R58-D13 (R+45). So EV being R+22 is slicing that in half.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/13/22 for Ada County, Idaho:

• 41,717 ballots requested (up from 20,275 on this day in 2018)
• 7,613 ballots returned, for a rate of 18.2% (down from 27% on this day in 2018)

Republicans make up 48.6% of requested ballots, Democrats 26.5%, and Unaffiliated 24.23%

Any knowledge of what partisanship looked like in 2018?
Wither way its still BRUTAL for Dems because they should be leading in this type of voting, even in redder areas.

I mean, Idaho's partisan registration is R58-D13 (R+45). So EV being R+22 is slicing that in half.

This is Ada County…

Yes, and given Idaho's registration, I doubt it's that much better even in a bluer area.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/13/22 for Ada County, Idaho:

• 41,717 ballots requested (up from 20,275 on this day in 2018)
• 7,613 ballots returned, for a rate of 18.2% (down from 27% on this day in 2018)

Republicans make up 48.6% of requested ballots, Democrats 26.5%, and Unaffiliated 24.23%

Any knowledge of what partisanship looked like in 2018?
Wither way its still BRUTAL for Dems because they should be leading in this type of voting, even in redder areas.

I mean, Idaho's partisan registration is R58-D13 (R+45). So EV being R+22 is slicing that in half.

This is Ada County…

Yes, and given Idaho's registration, I doubt it's that much better even in a bluer area.

With Ada County, 2020 stats show a registration of around 40% R and 24% D, that is R+16. Meanwhile the requests are R+22. I will let you do the rest.

I'll gladly admit I was wrong then. But it's also still... Idaho.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1580678712936128512?s=20&t=rp_SXwd...

NV is going to be quite interesting this year with every voter getting a ballot.

In objective theory, that is good for Ds if what they're worried about is a "turnout" issue.

[wbrocks67]

Literally anyone who knows how Ada county voted in 2020 can tell this is not a good sign, wven without exact numbers. I dont know why you all are in denial.

Again, "literally anyone who knows" about early voting should realize it can't tell us much outside of Nevada.

FL could tell us something as well

Nevada really is unique here. FL early voting hasn’t consistently indicated actual results in the last several years because who early votes there and who doesn’t has varied wildly with Republicans adopting and then abandoning mail voting and then surging on Election Day.

And it appears that as the war on mail-in ballots has subsided a bit with Trump not being in office, Republicans seem more likely to return to mail-in ballots now in FL.

[wbrocks67]

Literally anyone who knows how Ada county voted in 2020 can tell this is not a good sign, wven without exact numbers. I dont know why you all are in denial.

Again, "literally anyone who knows" about early voting should realize it can't tell us much outside of Nevada.

FL could tell us something as well

Nevada really is unique here. FL early voting hasn’t consistently indicated actual results in the last several years because who early votes there and who doesn’t has varied wildly with Republicans adopting and then abandoning mail voting and then surging on Election Day.

And it appears that as the war on mail-in ballots has subsided a bit with Trump not being in office, Republicans seem more likely to return to mail-in ballots now in FL.

Ah yes, thats why they are returning Mail in ballots at higher rates instead of the obvious reason.

I wasn't speaking to return rates. I was speaking to the overall % of requests from D to R. In FL, Rs have historically had a good mail-in ballot reception until 2020. It would not be a surprise if we saw a return to that this year without Trump fear mongering about it.

[wbrocks67]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

Not sure what your point is. Like others have said, voting patterns are not going to be the same as 2020, especially in states where voting by mail was a newer thing in that year.

[wbrocks67]

I'd be skeptical of mail in voting numbers too. Unless you live in a state that automatically mails you one, its not hard to imagine a good chunk of 2020 mail-in voters are just going to simplify things and vote in person. I know I am.

Same here.  My family and I have voted early in person for years, but in 2020 we voted by mail.  This year we're going back to EIP.

Same.

[wbrocks67]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

Those Florida numbers should be worrying for Dems

As others have said, would not be surprised if the GOP reverted to a stronger mail-in ballot apparatus, as they did pre-2020.

[wbrocks67]

It’s not me saying that Dems will vote by mail, it’s the polls of Georgia/Texas/I think some other states where they actually said it. Coupling this with primary results, and the divide being present in primaries (for those  of you that say you are voting in person, I’m guessing you also did that in the primaries so it would be reflected in this analysis) AND special elections AND 2021 statewide elections, I think there’s a pretty good case that democrats will still dominate the early voting and get shellacked on E day. In fairness, Florida could probably somewhat of an exception with the GOP still being the party of high propensity voters there.

With that being said, a few days worth of data on 4 states is not conclusive and does not point to a definite GOP victory. It is, however, either a nothing burger or a good sign for the GOP to some degree. The fact that the first reaction of atlas is to declare that they are 100% sure it’s irrelevant shows that: A) if there is a wave, nobody will see it coming and B) this is a forum of advocacy more so than “looking at the data”

No one is saying its "irrelevant" but there's no way to really gleam either way. We don't know what we don't know for many of these states and how things are turning out this year vs. 2020.

Florida could easily be a case of Dems not being motivated. Or it could be GOP going back to their habits pre-2020 of voting heavily my mail. We literally don't know, so anyone making conclusions is just lying.

[wbrocks67]

This is exactly why it's hard to make a comparison in any state that didn't have a ton of mail-in voting prior to 2020. The way people vote is going to be all over the place this year compared to 2020.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1581335824737918976

[wbrocks67]

Here’s a concept: we don’t make any inferences or assumptions based on VBM or early voting numbers. Both sides can point out to things that look good for them so there’s no point in drawing conclusions.

The only thing that I think will be illuminating is going into Election Day when things have really picked up, and seeing the return rates by state.

(i.e., in PA for example, if Ds have a 80% return rate vs 75% for Rs, that's better for them, at least in showing enthusiasm, and vice versa)

[wbrocks67]

Above 2018 seems pretty likely, given all the indicators. Would again suggest that both sides are energized to vote.