Who wins Fayette county?
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  Who wins Fayette county?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Fayette is almost certainly the next metro Atl county to flip Dem, but who will win it Tuesday?
#1
Warnock		  
#2
Walker		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 48

Author Topic: Who wins Fayette county?  (Read 1029 times)
Horus
Sheliak5
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« on: December 05, 2022, 01:51:10 AM »
See above
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Spectator
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« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2022, 08:11:23 AM »
Warnock by a few hundred votes.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2022, 09:23:39 AM »
Walker but he'll be the last Republican to win it for awhile (at least the last one to win it while losing statewide.)
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2022, 10:09:05 AM »
Warnock +0.4
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2022, 10:18:47 AM »
Warnock by less than 1%.
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seskoog
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« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2022, 01:30:01 PM »
Warnock by 1% or less.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2022, 01:31:22 PM »
Walker by 3-5, but I wouldn't be shocked if Warnock ended up carrying it.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2022, 01:32:38 PM »
FWIW, Split Ticket's runoff model has Warnock+3.2% in Fayette.
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Devils30
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« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2022, 02:40:30 PM »
I will say Walker by 1 or so and it will be the last red Fayette for a long time outside of an uncontested R.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2022, 10:54:26 PM »


We tried so hard, and came so far...
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2022, 11:14:59 PM »
This is it, Republicans.  The third most affluent county in Georgia (after Fulton and Oconee) becomes Democratic beginning in 2023.
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2022, 11:25:23 PM »
Biden will win Fayette in 2024. Purple heart
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Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
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« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2022, 11:28:40 PM »
Depends whether Trump or DeSantis, but against Trump I think he easily takes it.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2022, 11:59:27 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on December 05, 2022, 02:40:30 PM
I will say Walker by 1 or so and it will be the last red Fayette for a long time outside of an uncontested R.

Nailed it!
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2022, 04:16:28 AM »
It's amazing for us olds who remember that less than a decade ago, judges forced Fayette County to abolish its at-large county commission system (district-based in terms of candidate residence, but the entire county voted on all commissioner races) and draw 1 (of 4!) districts as a VRA-compatible district for black residents moving in...and now we're apparently on the cusp of this entire county flipping in the next election.

I expected Fayette to move and be winnable by 2024 (see below), but it still shocks me to this day to actually see it. This was largely the single biggest barrier of segregation on the southern metro (pull up a precinct map of the 2012 presidential to see what I mean, where only the most northeastern precincts in the whole county narrowly voted D):

Quote from: Adam Griffin on November 11, 2020, 12:26:35 AM
Quote from: #Joemala2020 on November 09, 2020, 08:18:36 PM
So an (Atlas) red Fayette in 2022? 2024?

I think the more likely of the two would be 2024. Even if favorable realignment trends continue, there's likely to be a dampening effect of some sort in 2022 just because it's a Democratic midterm.

I wouldn't rule out a 2022 win, though. Fayette swung 12.7 points to Biden compared to Clinton (and 6.9 points compared to Abrams). That averages out to a 3.3-point Democratic shift every 2 years: if that rate of movement held (which this is a dubious comparison, admittedly), you could see a 0.2-point win in 2022. Again, this is without any negative effects applying as a result of a Democratic midterm.
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Devils30
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« Reply #15 on: December 07, 2022, 02:51:11 PM »
Quote from: Hope For A New Era on December 06, 2022, 11:59:27 PM
Quote from: Devils30 on December 05, 2022, 02:40:30 PM
I will say Walker by 1 or so and it will be the last red Fayette for a long time outside of an uncontested R.

Nailed it!

Yep! Not surprising at all and for Biden 2024 I would even say its close to likely D.
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