Early Voting thread.

[Minnesota Mike]

Repubs now +32k in Florida. 2.1mn have voted

Yeah, I think FL barring a Major Surge for D's is locked up for Republicans.

I'm not sure that anyone has thought Florida could be seriously competitive in months.

Both true.

- Dems are getting their @ss kicked in Florida.
- It won't change the results from what we have expected for months. Statewide races were always likely to go Republican and ever since the new CD map was drawn we knew it was likely to end 20R - 8D. Maybe Dems have a chance at FL-27 in a good year for them but the rest of the map is pretty well drawn in stone.

[wbrocks67]

California update - 2.12M votes counted
Democrats: 1.06M (50%)
Republicans: 596K (28%)
Ind/Other: 469K (22%)

https://politicaldata.com/2022-general-ballots-returned-tracker/

Tracking almost exactly with party reg (D+23)

[BenjiG98]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1586014895673266176

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/26/2022-ohio-elections-more-have-voted-early-than-2018/69589425007/

Here are the Early voting statistics in.OH 400K more votes than last time good news for Ryan

As I said it's gonna be a 53/46/1 map in the Senate because we winded up in 2010 with 53 seats and we lost the H Ryan now has a 52% chance of being the 53rd seat Beasley 48% chance

It's only gonna be a slim R majority anyways 225/210

We win the Senate in 24 lose MT or WV and gain FL with DEMINGS whom can beat Rick Scott , regain the H this our Filibuster proof voting majority

This is following 2012 where Pat McCrory won likewise Budd win and Brown wins and Ryan wins and then McMullin

[MillennialModerate]

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/26/2022-ohio-elections-more-have-voted-early-than-2018/69589425007/

Here are the Early voting statistics in.OH 400K more votes than last time good news for Ryan

As I said it's gonna be a 53/46/1 map in the Senate because we winded up in 2010 with 53 seats and we lost the H Ryan now has a 52% chance of being the 53rd seat Beasley 48% chance

It's only gonna be a slim R majority anyways 225/210

We win the Senate in 24 lose MT or WV and gain FL with DEMINGS whom can beat Rick Scott , regain the H this our Filibuster proof voting majority

This is following 2012 where Pat McCrory won likewise Budd win and Brown wins and Ryan wins and then McMullin

BREAKING: You’re so far off it’s effing silly

“bUt mUh gEorGiA!!”

[2016]

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1586029783582142464

FL Republicans keep adding

[2016]

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/26/2022-ohio-elections-more-have-voted-early-than-2018/69589425007/

Here are the Early voting statistics in.OH 400K more votes than last time good news for Ryan

As I said it's gonna be a 53/46/1 map in the Senate because we winded up in 2010 with 53 seats and we lost the H Ryan now has a 52% chance of being the 53rd seat Beasley 48% chance

It's only gonna be a slim R majority anyways 225/210

We win the Senate in 24 lose MT or WV and gain FL with DEMINGS whom can beat Rick Scott , regain the H this our Filibuster proof voting majority

This is following 2012 where Pat McCrory won likewise Budd win and Brown wins and Ryan wins and then McMullin

BREAKING: You’re so far off it’s effing silly

“bUt mUh gEorGiA!!”

He is indeed waaaaay off EV in Ohio will be between 35-40 and E-Day will be between 60-65 %.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1586029783582142464
FL Republicans keep adding

The others are right 2016, you’ve already shown that Florida is gone. The only interesting part is Miami-Dade and it’s implications on FL-27. At this point I think it flips.

[Adam Griffin]

Florida? He [Trump] ought to be fearing wipeouts in WI, MI & PA.

It doesn't matter much: most Democrats don't have a shot in hell of winning Florida. It's time for Democrats to learn and to write off FL (and OH while we're at it), and start putting money into the swing states of the modern era. For the cost of what we spend targeting these 2 useless states, we could target GA, AZ & make serious attempts in TX (or shore up efforts in NC).

FL is #2 on my "States Democrats Should Stop Dumping Tens of Millions Into Because of Tradition, Only to Lose" list (OH is obviously #1), but 2020 may be too soon for GA to surpass it. Under neutral conditions, I definitely believe it will by 2024, though.

Imagine thinking NC is more deserving of investment at this point than GA.

Also:

STOP 👏 SPENDING 👏 IN 👏 FL

Even the Biden campaign itself admitted spending in FL was risky and potentially not worth it. I guess now that they're ahead meaningfully, they think it deserves targeting.

FL is a perpetually-close state but that doesn't mean it's a perpetual swing state. Its size and persistence on being a net-unfriendly state along demographic lines for Democrats is why the GOP has won 80% of statewide/federal races there in the 21st century; why Trump having no campaign there yet Hillary having the most advanced campaign in the history in the state still led to his win; why even Obama's '12 win there merely took him from a comfortable 303 EVs to 332; why any marginally-competitive presidential election this century has seen the GOP win it.  Additionally, there's no Senate contest and its metro areas are so scattered that I've personally coined it "the Ohio of the South". If Biden wins FL, he's won the election long since; if he doesn't and his campaign is on-point, he can still win (especially with states like AZ, GA & NC) comfortably without it.

Write off Florida. Write off Ohio. Even a sizable segment of Biden's campaign team wanted to do such, but special interests and deluded pundits stuck in the 00s won the day ultimately.

Do what I've been doing for the past 4 years and you'll sleep better at night.

See my screen name and past 5 years of posts. FL is too vast, too expensive and too R-leaning to continue subscribing to outdated "swing state" definitions. The Biden team almost came to the same conclusion last year, but CW unfortunately prevailed. Hopefully 2024 doesn't follow the same path.

[2016]

@Unelectable Bystander,
I think Ohio & North Carolina is locked in for Republicans too.

The current D-R Spread in Ohio is 45-41 and in North Carolina if you believe the NC State Board of Elections it's 39-31 D-R down from 43-27 D-R in 2020.

The LAZY North Carolina Republican Party trends to get their Early Voters more out during the Final Week of EV.

I am pretty comfortable that those Spreads in OH & NC are not good enough to safe Tim Ryan and Cheri Beasley.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/26/2022-ohio-elections-more-have-voted-early-than-2018/69589425007/

Here are the Early voting statistics in.OH 400K more votes than last time good news for Ryan

As I said it's gonna be a 53/46/1 map in the Senate because we winded up in 2010 with 53 seats and we lost the H Ryan now has a 52% chance of being the 53rd seat Beasley 48% chance

It's only gonna be a slim R majority anyways 225/210

We win the Senate in 24 lose MT or WV and gain FL with DEMINGS whom can beat Rick Scott , regain the H this our Filibuster proof voting majority

This is following 2012 where Pat McCrory won likewise Budd win and Brown wins and Ryan wins and then McMullin

BREAKING: You’re so far off it’s effing silly

“bUt mUh gEorGiA!!”

Your the one who said no way we win GA Runoff and you were WRONG THE FINAL POLL IS EDAY

WHY ARE YOU SUPPORTING AN R ANYWAYS YOU ARE A RED AVATAR

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

@Unelectable Bystander,
I think Ohio & North Carolina is locked in for Republicans too.

The current D-R Spread in Ohio is 45-41 and in North Carolina if you believe the NC State Board of Elections it's 39-31 D-R down from 43-27 D-R in 2020.

The LAZY North Carolina Republican Party trends to get their Early Voters more out during the Final Week of EV.

I am pretty comfortable that those Spreads in OH & NC are not good enough to safe Tim Ryan and Cheri Beasley.

Guess what you posted Molinaro plus 8 in NY 19 you were wrong you never admit you were wrong but you call out others

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1586029783582142464
FL Republicans keep adding

The others are right 2016, you’ve already shown that Florida is gone. The only interesting part is Miami-Dade and it’s implications on FL-27. At this point I think it flips.

What indicates that FL-27 would flip? Salazar is a pretty heavy favorite. Miami-Dade also looked great for the Dems given the registration voting stats in 2020, it seemed like Biden was gonna win FL by 3pts until the actual results dropped.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1586029783582142464
FL Republicans keep adding

The others are right 2016, you’ve already shown that Florida is gone. The only interesting part is Miami-Dade and it’s implications on FL-27. At this point I think it flips.

What indicates that FL-27 would flip? Salazar is a pretty heavy favorite. Miami-Dade also looked great for the Dems given the registration voting stats in 2020, it seemed like Biden was gonna win FL by 3pts until the actual results dropped.

What he meant is that Miami-Dade could flip to DeSantis! And Salazar will likely win by a bigger margin in 2022 compared what she did in 2020.
I mean look at this here:
This is Miami-Dade County
https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=DAD
Democratic Registration Edge in Miami-Dade means absolutely nothing if Democrats can't turn out their Voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1586020281646075911

[soundchaser]

NV, AZ, and MN looking good but not FL...maybe OC was right about the sunbelt stack.

[Ljube]

NV, AZ, and MN looking good but not FL...maybe OC was right about the sunbelt stack.

OC is never right about anything.

[2016]

NV, AZ, and MN looking good but not FL...maybe OC was right about the sunbelt stack.

I wouldn't count my chickens just yet on Nevada.

While Democrats have an Advantage as John Ralston alluded to he also said that Independent Voters in the Silver State leaning Republican this year.

Consider this fact mate: Sisolak won Indies 55-37 per 2018 Exit Polls when he ran against Laxalt see here:
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/nevada

[soundchaser]

NV, AZ, and MN looking good but not FL...maybe OC was right about the sunbelt stack.

I wouldn't count my chickens just yet on Nevada.

While Democrats have an Advantage as John Ralston alluded to he also said that Independent Voters in the Silver State leaning Republican this year.

Consider this fact mate: Sisolak won Indies 55-37 per 2018 Exit Polls when he ran against Laxalt see here:
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/nevada

First of all, that's not what Ralston said. He said IF Indies are breaking heavily Republican this year, it would look good for Laxalt and Lombardo.

Second of all, do you people not understand how jokes work?

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m updating my early voting ratings. Reminder this is my opinion on how good the news is for each party at this time. Obviously not an actual contest rating and is subject to change.

Likely D: Michigan

Lean D: Georgia (D’s still winning the “model”, but rural turnout is still high. I might shift this if white turnout keeps rising), Iowa (D’s have caught up to 2020 and have been gaining)

Toss-up: Wisconsin (I didn’t realize early in-person had only just started, so probably too early), Pennsylvania (tracking with 2020), and Ohio (D’s are winning the model, but urban and minority turnout are way down)

Lean R: Arizona, Texas (rural turnout is very high), Nevada (R’s are outpacing 2020 despite some rural counties reporting nothing)

Likely R: North Carolina (same story as Texas, but more data and registered R’s are outpacing 2020), Oregon, California

Safe R: Florida

[Ferguson97]

I’m updating my early voting ratings. Reminder this is my opinion on how good the news is for each party at this time. Obviously not an actual contest rating and is subject to change.

Likely D: Michigan

Lean D: Georgia (D’s still winning the “model”, but rural turnout is still high. I might shift this if white turnout keeps rising), Iowa (D’s have caught up to 2020 and have been gaining)

Toss-up: Wisconsin (I didn’t realize early in-person had only just started, so probably too early), Pennsylvania (tracking with 2020), and Ohio (D’s are winning the model, but urban and minority turnout are way down)

Lean R: Arizona, Texas (rural turnout is very high), Nevada (R’s are outpacing 2020 despite some rural counties reporting nothing)

Likely R: North Carolina (same story as Texas, but more data and registered R’s are outpacing 2020), Oregon, California

Safe R: Florida

And these rankings are purely based on EV data?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m updating my early voting ratings. Reminder this is my opinion on how good the news is for each party at this time. Obviously not an actual contest rating and is subject to change.

Likely D: Michigan

Lean D: Georgia (D’s still winning the “model”, but rural turnout is still high. I might shift this if white turnout keeps rising), Iowa (D’s have caught up to 2020 and have been gaining)

Toss-up: Wisconsin (I didn’t realize early in-person had only just started, so probably too early), Pennsylvania (tracking with 2020), and Ohio (D’s are winning the model, but urban and minority turnout are way down)

Lean R: Arizona, Texas (rural turnout is very high), Nevada (R’s are outpacing 2020 despite some rural counties reporting nothing)

Likely R: North Carolina (same story as Texas, but more data and registered R’s are outpacing 2020), Oregon, California

Safe R: Florida

These posts are interesting, but may I suggest a terminology change?  Even though you clearly say these aren't the same as contest ratings, I think some people might still misinterpret it that way.  Perhaps instead of Safe, Likely, and Lean, use something like "Strong overperformance", "Moderate overperformance", and "Slight overperformance".

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m updating my early voting ratings. Reminder this is my opinion on how good the news is for each party at this time. Obviously not an actual contest rating and is subject to change.

Likely D: Michigan

Lean D: Georgia (D’s still winning the “model”, but rural turnout is still high. I might shift this if white turnout keeps rising), Iowa (D’s have caught up to 2020 and have been gaining)

Toss-up: Wisconsin (I didn’t realize early in-person had only just started, so probably too early), Pennsylvania (tracking with 2020), and Ohio (D’s are winning the model, but urban and minority turnout are way down)

Lean R: Arizona, Texas (rural turnout is very high), Nevada (R’s are outpacing 2020 despite some rural counties reporting nothing)

Likely R: North Carolina (same story as Texas, but more data and registered R’s are outpacing 2020), Oregon, California

Safe R: Florida

And these rankings are purely based on EV data?

Yes, in person and mail from target smart

[wbrocks67]

@Unelectable Bystander,
I think Ohio & North Carolina is locked in for Republicans too.

The current D-R Spread in Ohio is 45-41 and in North Carolina if you believe the NC State Board of Elections it's 39-31 D-R down from 43-27 D-R in 2020.

The LAZY North Carolina Republican Party trends to get their Early Voters more out during the Final Week of EV.

I am pretty comfortable that those Spreads in OH & NC are not good enough to safe Tim Ryan and Cheri Beasley.

You keep saying this; it's not true. The final EV (in person + mail) was D+5, 37-32 in 2020

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

@Unelectable Bystander,
I think Ohio & North Carolina is locked in for Republicans too.

The current D-R Spread in Ohio is 45-41 and in North Carolina if you believe the NC State Board of Elections it's 39-31 D-R down from 43-27 D-R in 2020.

The LAZY North Carolina Republican Party trends to get their Early Voters more out during the Final Week of EV.

I am pretty comfortable that those Spreads in OH & NC are not good enough to safe Tim Ryan and Cheri Beasley.

You keep saying this; it's not true. The final EV (in person + mail) was D+5, 37-32 in 2020

Putting 2016 on ignore has vastly improved my forum experience.