Trump fears Florida wipeout

[Biden Stans Are Cringelords]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/26/trump-florida-senate-2018-senate-governor-941802

[quote]Aides to DeSantis and Scott insist they’re ahead and point out that early vote numbers are favorable. But they concede the races are close. On Tuesday, Blaise Hazelwood, the top strategist for a pro-Scott super PAC, sent a memo to donors, warning them that the contest was tight and pleading with them for additional financial help.

"It will most likely be a quintessential ‘Rick Scott win,’” Hazelwood wrote, “a nail biter until the very end.”

A victory by Democrat Andrew Gillum, on the other hand, could buoy Trump’s general election opponent. Gillum, an African-American mayor of Tallahassee, has excited liberals across the state — and presumably, he would work to gin up support for the eventual Democratic nominee.

“A Gov. Gillum would be a significant obstacle for a Trump presidential campaign in Florida, and a Gov. DeSantis would be a significant asset,” said Mac Stipanovich, a longtime Republican lobbyist in the state.

[mgop]

it is not "wipeout" if you lose governor seat and one senate seat that's democratic now. florida is fully republican: state senate, state house, voted for republican at presidential election, have other senate seat, most of house seats. if desantis and scott win, it will be fully red.

[psychprofessor]

How stupid. The Governor of Florida will have about as much an impact on their party winning the state in the Presidential contest there as Charlie Baker does in Massachusetts

In reality, voters passing amendment 4 will have the most impact in 2020 which would add 1.5 million people to the voter rolls. Gillum would also reverse Scott's trend of voter disenfranchisement, probably extend early voting hours and polling locations, etc...

[Virginiá]

#PoliticoAnalysis

How stupid. The Governor of Florida will have about as much an impact on their party winning the state in the Presidential contest there as Charlie Baker does in Massachusetts

In reality, voters passing amendment 4 will have the most impact in 2020 which would add 1.5 million people to the voter rolls. Gillum would also reverse Scott's trend of voter disenfranchisement, probably extend early voting hours and polling locations, etc...

I don't think the governor has control over things like early voting hours. Those are done by individual counties. I suppose the governor can do things like extend registration deadlines/early voting hours in the wake of hurricanes and stuff, although I wonder if some of that is even legal and just no one has challenged it before since it's been Republicans doing it, not a Democrat. We'll see, because Republicans are going to want to challenge every Gillum does simply because he won.

[PragmaticPopulist]

If Trump worries because more people will be allowed to vote, Florida Democrats are doing something right.

[Tintrlvr]

How stupid. The Governor of Florida will have about as much an impact on their party winning the state in the Presidential contest there as Charlie Baker does in Massachusetts

In reality, voters passing amendment 4 will have the most impact in 2020 which would add 1.5 million people to the voter rolls. Gillum would also reverse Scott's trend of voter disenfranchisement, probably extend early voting hours and polling locations, etc...

Has there been any polling on amendment 4?

[Stranger in a strange land]

How stupid. The Governor of Florida will have about as much an impact on their party winning the state in the Presidential contest there as Charlie Baker does in Massachusetts

Nah, more like Scott Walker in Wisconsin...

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

How stupid. The Governor of Florida will have about as much an impact on their party winning the state in the Presidential contest there as Charlie Baker does in Massachusetts

In reality, voters passing amendment 4 will have the most impact in 2020 which would add 1.5 million people to the voter rolls. Gillum would also reverse Scott's trend of voter disenfranchisement, probably extend early voting hours and polling locations, etc...

Has there been any polling on amendment 4?

Yes, it's polling anywhere from 61%-70%, it needs 60%

[MT Treasurer]

He’s not wrong, you know. FL is a pretty good bellwether state not just for this year, but it’s also hard to see how he wins the state again in 2020 if Gillum/Nelson both win easily this year.

[GP270watch]

I think if DeSantis loses it will be because voters considered him a lightweight more than him hitching himself to Trump.

[History505]

He should.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I think if DeSantis loses it will be because voters considered him a lightweight more than him hitching himself to Trump.

My uncle, who is voting straight Republican anyway, has repeatedly expressed this concern FWIW.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I doubt it, since DeSantis has pulled even

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Florida's voters supression is one of the reasons I'm don't feel too confident about Gillum pulling this.

[Mr. Smith]

He’s not wrong, you know. FL is a pretty good bellwether state not just for this year, but it’s also hard to see how he wins the state again in 2020 if Gillum/Nelson both win easily this year.

Because Romney totes won the state in 2012 easily after Voldemort and The Lavenous One pwned2010 out the ballpark, amirite?

[Gass3268]

I think if DeSantis loses it will be because voters considered him a lightweight more than him hitching himself to Trump.

My uncle, who is voting straight Republican anyway, has repeatedly expressed this concern FWIW.

The Trump cult ad in the primary looks like a big mistake. I think it turned off a lot of voters in the middle. Plus the "Monkey Around" line didn't help.

[Adam Griffin]

Florida? He ought to be fearing wipeouts in WI, MI & PA.

[junior chįmp]

Hopefully there are major gains in the state legislature and possibly a chamber flip as well. I think Gillum could establish a party machine like Harry Reid did in Nevada.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Florida? He ought to be fearing wipeouts in WI, MI & PA.

[Person Man]

He’s not wrong, you know. FL is a pretty good bellwether state not just for this year, but it’s also hard to see how he wins the state again in 2020 if Gillum/Nelson both win easily this year.

Because Romney totes won the state in 2012 easily after Voldemort and The Lavenous One pwned2010 out the ballpark, amirite?

The economy improved...

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I don't think the "monkey-wrench" comment is having any impact at all. DeSantis has waged a good, if not innovative campaign (the Fox News super mega blitz is going to become a feature of GOP primaries for years to come).

The problem is, where DeSantis ran an awesome primary campaign, Gillum has waged an extraordinary campaign. He won the primary in the second biggest upset of the year after Crowley, and has quickly managed to define himself before the FLGOP had a chance to cast a narrative around him. I assume this failure has to do with the fact that they never considered Gillum a serious candidate.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I don't think the "monkey-wrench" comment is having any impact at all. DeSantis has waged a good, if not innovative campaign (the Fox News super mega blitz is going to become a feature of GOP primaries for years to come).

The problem is, where DeSantis ran an awesome primary campaign, Gillum has waged an extraordinary campaign. He won the primary in the second biggest upset of the year after Crowley, and has quickly managed to define himself before the FLGOP had a chance to cast a narrative around him. I assume this failure has to do with the fact that they never considered Gillum a serious candidate.

Well, apparently according to GOP insiders, Gillum was the one candidate the FLGOP didn't want to run against, they wanted Graham or Levine

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I don't think the "monkey-wrench" comment is having any impact at all. DeSantis has waged a good, if not innovative campaign (the Fox News super mega blitz is going to become a feature of GOP primaries for years to come).

The problem is, where DeSantis ran an awesome primary campaign, Gillum has waged an extraordinary campaign. He won the primary in the second biggest upset of the year after Crowley, and has quickly managed to define himself before the FLGOP had a chance to cast a narrative around him. I assume this failure has to do with the fact that they never considered Gillum a serious candidate.

Well, apparently according to GOP insiders, Gillum was the one candidate the FLGOP didn't want to run against, they wanted Graham or Levine

I have not heard of that, but I haven't been in the RPOF building for quite a while and most of what I hear is second hand these days.

[Person Man]

I don't think the "monkey-wrench" comment is having any impact at all. DeSantis has waged a good, if not innovative campaign (the Fox News super mega blitz is going to become a feature of GOP primaries for years to come).

The problem is, where DeSantis ran an awesome primary campaign, Gillum has waged an extraordinary campaign. He won the primary in the second biggest upset of the year after Crowley, and has quickly managed to define himself before the FLGOP had a chance to cast a narrative around him. I assume this failure has to do with the fact that they never considered Gillum a serious candidate.

Remember the cardinal rule of the Devil's Advocats - Never let them see you coming.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Hopefully there are major gains in the state legislature and possibly a chamber flip as well. I think Gillum could establish a party machine like Harry Reid did in Nevada.

How bad is the gerrymander/self packing in FL? Would a 7-8 victory in the PV be enough to flip the house or senate?