Early Voting thread.

[wbrocks67]

Two day GA in person vote:
268K
52.5% White, 36% Black

[wbrocks67]

Democrats officially take the lead in NJ early mail vote return rate, 33.2% to 32.9%.

Was interested in this because for a while it appeared Reps were returning at a higher rate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama is coming into the final stretch in WI, PA and MI, it's a 303 map anyways the difference is are there gonna be D upsets in a wave insurance map the PVI was 51/47 and we are clearly that right now , a D H and net OH, IA and UT as wave insurance after WI PA if we do that it's a Secular Trifecta, a DH was always gonna accompany 55)45 the difference is NC and FL are down and IA and UT moved up, while OH stayed at 53

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 3,651,827 (+971k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 17,109,643 (+283k)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1582752450854850560

[S019]

Anyone know where I can find info on Florida’s early vote since Steve Schale said he may not do a tracker this year?

[BenjiG98]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1582758459610525696?s=20&t=2iVcdXG...

[soundchaser]

Hopefully this is “Jon Ralston: The Thread” from here on out.

[Lief 🗽]

Huge turnout across the board it looks like. Very bad news.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are gonna get a lot of conflicting polls in wave insurance seats beware of Trafalgar polls there are polls showing GCB at 41/34 D now and then we have NY T 49/45 R WI, IA, OH, NC and UT are gonna be conflicting polls just like we had Ryan +2 and now Vance plus 4 and then we have Budd +6 and other polls had Beasley +2 and then WI Johnson plus 6 and Clarity Barnes plus one, just be advised of that all 6 races are within the MOE, Bernie already said and McCaskill that Ds are gonna net S and 6 races including PA, AZ,, NV, GA, are now MOE and no we aren't just gonna win NH the only state that has Ds +7

[Holmes]

Huge turnout across the board it looks like. Very bad news.

Depends.

[Ferguson97]

Huge turnout across the board it looks like. Very bad news.

How? That would make it a neutral environment.

[wbrocks67]

Huge turnout across the board it looks like. Very bad news.

How? That would make it a neutral environment.

Precisely. A lot of the LV models are predicated on GOP turnout surge + Democratic voter turnout issues (specifically among minorities and young voters). If this election is as high turnout as it's appearing, that means both sides are fired up. Would also mean RV models are probably more close to reality than LV models.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

[wbrocks67]

363K already returned in PA, and with Philly finally reporting some, Democrats takeover the return rate (30.6% vs 29.2%)

[It’s so Joever]

Huge turnout across the board it looks like. Very bad news.

How? That would make it a neutral environment.

Precisely. A lot of the LV models are predicated on GOP turnout surge + Democratic voter turnout issues (specifically among minorities and young voters). If this election is as high turnout as it's appearing, that means both sides are fired up. Would also mean RV models are probably more close to reality than LV models.

The special elections we won were low turnout. Personally I think the turnout rate pattern is more of a u or even a w shape at this point as opposed to a linear “high turnout helps x”

[wbrocks67]

Huge turnout across the board it looks like. Very bad news.

How? That would make it a neutral environment.

Precisely. A lot of the LV models are predicated on GOP turnout surge + Democratic voter turnout issues (specifically among minorities and young voters). If this election is as high turnout as it's appearing, that means both sides are fired up. Would also mean RV models are probably more close to reality than LV models.

The special elections we won were low turnout. Personally I think the turnout rate pattern is more of a u or even a w shape at this point as opposed to a linear “high turnout helps x”

Lower than a regular election yeah, but I wouldn't call NY-19 per se "low turnout" in a raw sense. It still was nearly 30% turnout (compared to say, TX-34, which was like, what, 7% turnout or something?) WA wasn't low turnout either.

But I agree that high turnout doesn't help either side, it helps everyone. High turnout at this point means both sides are energized, just like 2020.

[2016]

Advisory for all Democrats on the other side of the aisle.

After what I just found out regarding Tom Bonier I am going carpet bomp them on Social Media for his fraudulent TS Model.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Advisory for all Democrats on the other side of the aisle.

After what I just found out regarding Tom Bonier I am going carpet bomp them on Social Media for his fraudulent TS Model.

I have no idea who that is.  But he's a UPenn guy so he's cool in my book 😎 (And pre-emptive thumbs-ups can never possibly get me in trouble!)

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

Tough to say without knowing what precincts the voters are coming from.

[It’s so Joever]

Advisory for all Democrats on the other side of the aisle.

After what I just found out regarding Tom Bonier I am going carpet bomp them on Social Media for his fraudulent TS Model.

Nobody actually took the TS model seriously before, idk what you are cautioning.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

I would say it's better, but the key metric IMO is black vote share.

It was at 28% in the 2020 EV and 30% in the 2021 EV, so I'd say that 27-28% is the minimum where it needs to be at for Dems to feel good by EV.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)