Early Voting thread.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1579110131887136771
Good thread here that features a discussion of early voting.  Click to read the whole thing.

This seems like fair analysis for the most part. Still, nobody ever goes into an election publicly expecting a shellacking. The fact that someone like Bonier would cite any evidence for a favorable republican night makes me more confident in a R+2 ish prediction. For example, even though 2018 had good polls and 2020 had a trifecta, there were a lot of democrat expectations that turned out to be insanely unrealistic after the fact.

[2016]

Any Official who is the CEO of TargetSmart should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

[Minnesota Mike]

Interesting article about early voting in MN, it is running way behind 2020 but slightly ahead of 2018. Of course mid term turnout is not going to match presidential turnout but the drop-off from 2020 has been huge. In 2020 336,017 votes had been cast in the first two weeks, this year 49,575. In 2018 42,552 votes were cast in the first two weeks. My guess is we are falling back to pre COVID voting habits and more people will vote in person on election day but we will have to wait and see.

https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2022/10/the-state-of-2022-early-voting-in-minnesota-its-not-2020-anymore/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, here's a new twist: election conspiracy theorist encouraging people to vote absentee.

https://twitter.com/VoterGa/status/1579225539013148674

[It’s so Joever]

Interesting article about early voting in MN, it is running way behind 2020 but slightly ahead of 2018. Of course mid term turnout is not going to match presidential turnout but the drop-off from 2020 has been huge. In 2020 336,017 votes had been cast in the first two weeks, this year 49,575. In 2018 42,552 votes were cast in the first two weeks. My guess is we are falling back to pre COVID voting habits and more people will vote in person on election day but we will have to wait and see.

https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2022/10/the-state-of-2022-early-voting-in-minnesota-its-not-2020-anymore/

Terrible for Dems. Despite the fact that early voting has become more normalized, we still are barely above 2018 turnout. Barring really low turnout on E Day, this could be a red tsunami.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Interesting article about early voting in MN, it is running way behind 2020 but slightly ahead of 2018. Of course mid term turnout is not going to match presidential turnout but the drop-off from 2020 has been huge. In 2020 336,017 votes had been cast in the first two weeks, this year 49,575. In 2018 42,552 votes were cast in the first two weeks. My guess is we are falling back to pre COVID voting habits and more people will vote in person on election day but we will have to wait and see.

https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2022/10/the-state-of-2022-early-voting-in-minnesota-its-not-2020-anymore/

Terrible for Dems. Despite the fact that early voting has become more normalized, we still are barely above 2018 turnout. Barring really low turnout on E Day, this could be a red tsunami.

Is that you SnowLabrador?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting article about early voting in MN, it is running way behind 2020 but slightly ahead of 2018. Of course mid term turnout is not going to match presidential turnout but the drop-off from 2020 has been huge. In 2020 336,017 votes had been cast in the first two weeks, this year 49,575. In 2018 42,552 votes were cast in the first two weeks. My guess is we are falling back to pre COVID voting habits and more people will vote in person on election day but we will have to wait and see.

https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2022/10/the-state-of-2022-early-voting-in-minnesota-its-not-2020-anymore/

Terrible for Dems. Despite the fact that early voting has become more normalized, we still are barely above 2018 turnout. Barring really low turnout on E Day, this could be a red tsunami.

Or, as Minnesota Mike suggests, 2020 was an aberration due to the fact that there was a deadly pandemic ongoing and more people are going to return to their previous voting habits.  My family and I are an example; typically we vote early in person, but in 2020 we voted by mail.  This year we'll go back to voting early in person.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 742,333 (+92k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,722,468 (+37k)

[wbrocks67]

NGL, still concerning that Rep return rate continues to outdo Dems in every state, sans SD.

[soundchaser]

Literally the only state that early voting tells us anything about is Nevada. Until Ralston starts doing his analyses, don’t freak out.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Literally the only state that early voting tells us anything about is Nevada. Until Ralston starts doing his analyses, don’t freak out.

What does NV tell us?

[soundchaser]

Literally the only state that early voting tells us anything about is Nevada. Until Ralston starts doing his analyses, don’t freak out.

What does NV tell us?

It’s very easy to extrapolate the winner of statewide elections there before Election Day because of their high propensity of early voting.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Tomorrow kicks off Absentee and Early voting in Arizona and Ohio!

[Minnesota Mike]

Literally the only state that early voting tells us anything about is Nevada. Until Ralston starts doing his analyses, don’t freak out.

What does NV tell us?

It’s very easy to extrapolate the winner of statewide elections there before Election Day because of their high propensity of early voting.

Or at least it used to be. With all voters now mailed a ballot past patterns may not hold.

[wbrocks67]

Literally the only state that early voting tells us anything about is Nevada. Until Ralston starts doing his analyses, don’t freak out.

Not necessarily freaking out, but I think the people who returned ballots early shows enthusiasm. Could also easily just be who is reporting and at what pace, but it's something to keep an eye on imo.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 1,007,530 (+265k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,788,833 (+66k)

[Wormless Gourd]

Beware the long post.

Virginia's early vote tracker is up! 11,000 votes have been accepted so far, with results by CD and county.

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/2022-november-general-election/

Over 190,000 people have early voted in Virginia, which is 56% of its final 2018 EV total. 3.2% is the total statewide turnout rate with four weeks left until election day.

Core Biden counties (netted >20,000 votes)
Fairfax - 23% of 2018 final early vote, 2.3% turnout
Arlington - 15% of 2018, 1.8% turnout
Richmond - 62% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Prince William - 44% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Loudoun - 40% of 2018, 2.9% turnout
Henrico - 72% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Alexandria - 32% of 2018, 3.2% turnout
Norfolk - 73% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Hampton - 96% of 2018, 2.9% turnout
Newport News - 100% of 2018, 2.4% turnout
Albemarle - 70% of 2018, 4.8% turnout
Portsmouth - 88% of 2018, 2.6% turnout
Charlottesville - 50% of 2018, 3.9% turnout
Chesterfield - 79% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Virginia Beach - 75% of 2018, 3.6% turnout
Roanoke City - 94% of 2018, 3.4% turnout
Petersburg - 56% of 2018, 3.4% turnout

Looks like DC area is really slacking so far(actually comparable to SW VA) while Hampton Roads are turning out early. Looks like this is a consequence of partisan white Ds relying on mail, black voters prefer in-person?

Core Trump counties (netted >10,000 votes in);
Bedford - 74% of 2018 final early vote, 2.9% turnout
Augusta - 108% of 2018, 3.4% turnout
Hanover - 94% of 2018, 4% turnout
Rockingham - 89% of 2018, 3% turnout
Washington - 82% of 2018, 3.7% turnout
Pittsylvania - 69% of 2018, 2.2% turnout
Tazewell - 87% of 2018, 2.8% turnout
Frederick - 69% of 2018, 2.4% turnout
Campbell - 79% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Franklin - 80% of 2018, 3% turnout
Roanoke County - 57% of 2018, 2.5% turnout
Wise - 47% of 2018, 1.5% turnout

Similar to 2021, the Shenandoah valley/greater Richmond sees the largest increase in turnout vs previous elections. Southside and SW VA are the weak links here as to be expected, but Republican areas overall are banking votes at a similar pace.

Other notables:
Stafford(Quantico area) - 79% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Emporia(largely black southside town) - 87% of 2018, 1.7% turnout
Lynchburg(Liberty U.) - 120% of 2018, 3.6% turnout
Fauquier(reddish DC exurbs) - 68% of 2018, 4.8% turnout
Radford(19 point improvement to Youngkin from Trump) - 100% of 2018, 3.2% turnout
Buchanan(2 point improvement to Youngkin from Trump) - 33% of 2018, 1.2% turnout

Still early, but a few signs point to a red-tinged or red-leaning environment. Swing and GOP areas are banking votes, Dem areas are a land of contrast right now. Gut feeling + looking at other counties says Luria is a goner, Spanberger has some issues, Wexton seems fine?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Beware the long post.

Virginia's early vote tracker is up! 11,000 votes have been accepted so far, with results by CD and county.

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/2022-november-general-election/

Over 190,000 people have early voted in Virginia, which is 56% of its final 2018 EV total. 3.2% is the total statewide turnout rate with four weeks left until election day.

Core Biden counties (netted >20,000 votes)
Fairfax - 23% of 2018 final early vote, 2.3% turnout
Arlington - 15% of 2018, 1.8% turnout
Richmond - 62% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Prince William - 44% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Loudoun - 40% of 2018, 2.9% turnout
Henrico - 72% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Alexandria - 32% of 2018, 3.2% turnout
Norfolk - 73% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Hampton - 96% of 2018, 2.9% turnout
Newport News - 100% of 2018, 2.4% turnout
Albemarle - 70% of 2018, 4.8% turnout
Portsmouth - 88% of 2018, 2.6% turnout
Charlottesville - 50% of 2018, 3.9% turnout
Chesterfield - 79% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Virginia Beach - 75% of 2018, 3.6% turnout
Roanoke City - 94% of 2018, 3.4% turnout
Petersburg - 56% of 2018, 3.4% turnout

Looks like DC area is really slacking so far(actually comparable to SW VA) while Hampton Roads are turning out early. Looks like this is a consequence of partisan white Ds relying on mail, black voters prefer in-person?

Core Trump counties (netted >10,000 votes in);
Bedford - 74% of 2018 final early vote, 2.9% turnout
Augusta - 108% of 2018, 3.4% turnout
Hanover - 94% of 2018, 4% turnout
Rockingham - 89% of 2018, 3% turnout
Washington - 82% of 2018, 3.7% turnout
Pittsylvania - 69% of 2018, 2.2% turnout
Tazewell - 87% of 2018, 2.8% turnout
Frederick - 69% of 2018, 2.4% turnout
Campbell - 79% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Franklin - 80% of 2018, 3% turnout
Roanoke County - 57% of 2018, 2.5% turnout
Wise - 47% of 2018, 1.5% turnout

Similar to 2021, the Shenandoah valley/greater Richmond sees the largest increase in turnout vs previous elections. Southside and SW VA are the weak links here as to be expected, but Republican areas overall are banking votes at a similar pace.

Other notables:
Stafford(Quantico area) - 79% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Emporia(largely black southside town) - 87% of 2018, 1.7% turnout
Lynchburg(Liberty U.) - 120% of 2018, 3.6% turnout
Fauquier(reddish DC exurbs) - 68% of 2018, 4.8% turnout
Radford(19 point improvement to Youngkin from Trump) - 100% of 2018, 3.2% turnout
Buchanan(2 point improvement to Youngkin from Trump) - 33% of 2018, 1.2% turnout

Still early, but a few signs point to a red-tinged environment. Swing and GOP areas are banking votes, Dem areas are a land of contrast right now.

Interesting data.  I have a vague memory that in 2020 there was a similar pattern of the D counties lagging in the early part of early voting (possibly due to fewer early voting locations open then, at least in Fairfax?)  Does anyone else remember this?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Beware the long post.

Virginia's early vote tracker is up! 11,000 votes have been accepted so far, with results by CD and county.

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/2022-november-general-election/

Over 190,000 people have early voted in Virginia, which is 56% of its final 2018 EV total. 3.2% is the total statewide turnout rate with four weeks left until election day.

Core Biden counties (netted >20,000 votes)
Fairfax - 23% of 2018 final early vote, 2.3% turnout
Arlington - 15% of 2018, 1.8% turnout
Richmond - 62% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Prince William - 44% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Loudoun - 40% of 2018, 2.9% turnout
Henrico - 72% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Alexandria - 32% of 2018, 3.2% turnout
Norfolk - 73% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Hampton - 96% of 2018, 2.9% turnout
Newport News - 100% of 2018, 2.4% turnout
Albemarle - 70% of 2018, 4.8% turnout
Portsmouth - 88% of 2018, 2.6% turnout
Charlottesville - 50% of 2018, 3.9% turnout
Chesterfield - 79% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Virginia Beach - 75% of 2018, 3.6% turnout
Roanoke City - 94% of 2018, 3.4% turnout
Petersburg - 56% of 2018, 3.4% turnout

Looks like DC area is really slacking so far(actually comparable to SW VA) while Hampton Roads are turning out early. Looks like this is a consequence of partisan white Ds relying on mail, black voters prefer in-person?

Core Trump counties (netted >10,000 votes in);
Bedford - 74% of 2018 final early vote, 2.9% turnout
Augusta - 108% of 2018, 3.4% turnout
Hanover - 94% of 2018, 4% turnout
Rockingham - 89% of 2018, 3% turnout
Washington - 82% of 2018, 3.7% turnout
Pittsylvania - 69% of 2018, 2.2% turnout
Tazewell - 87% of 2018, 2.8% turnout
Frederick - 69% of 2018, 2.4% turnout
Campbell - 79% of 2018, 2.1% turnout
Franklin - 80% of 2018, 3% turnout
Roanoke County - 57% of 2018, 2.5% turnout
Wise - 47% of 2018, 1.5% turnout

Similar to 2021, the Shenandoah valley/greater Richmond sees the largest increase in turnout vs previous elections. Southside and SW VA are the weak links here as to be expected, but Republican areas overall are banking votes at a similar pace.

Other notables:
Stafford(Quantico area) - 79% of 2018, 3.5% turnout
Emporia(largely black southside town) - 87% of 2018, 1.7% turnout
Lynchburg(Liberty U.) - 120% of 2018, 3.6% turnout
Fauquier(reddish DC exurbs) - 68% of 2018, 4.8% turnout
Radford(19 point improvement to Youngkin from Trump) - 100% of 2018, 3.2% turnout
Buchanan(2 point improvement to Youngkin from Trump) - 33% of 2018, 1.2% turnout

Still early, but a few signs point to a red-tinged environment. Swing and GOP areas are banking votes, Dem areas are a land of contrast right now.

Interesting data.  I have a vague memory that in 2020 there was a similar pattern of the D counties lagging in the early part of early voting (possibly due to fewer early voting locations open then, at least in Fairfax?)  Does anyone else remember this?

It looks like a red leaning environment from this, but it looks R+2 tops.

[Minnesota Mike]

Besides VA-02 & VA-07 there is nothing competitive to vote for in VA. I wouldn't read to much into turnout elsewhere.

[Skill and Chance]

Besides VA-02 & VA-07 there is nothing competitive to vote for in VA. I wouldn't read to much into turnout elsewhere.

Yes, the only thing on the ballot for most voters will be the US House seats, so there is little to motivate turnout in VA-08/VA-11 (the 2:1 Biden NOVA seats) or VA-09 (the 2:1 Trump SWVA seat).  IDK why Richmond area and Shenandoah Valley EV turnout  is so high, though?  None of those districts are expected to be remotely competitive (Spanberger's VA-07 pulled out of Richmond entirely).

[wbrocks67]

I'm not sure how much can be gleaned from stuff like this though, given in places like VA we really don't know how peoples voting pattern are going to end up.

[It’s so Joever]

The NoVa districts appear to still have a lot of requests which haven’t been filled yet, could just be backlog.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1580337075475259392

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 1,358,922 (+351k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 11,286,877 (+498k)