Early Voting thread.

[wbrocks67]

It’s not me saying that Dems will vote by mail, it’s the polls of Georgia/Texas/I think some other states where they actually said it. Coupling this with primary results, and the divide being present in primaries (for those  of you that say you are voting in person, I’m guessing you also did that in the primaries so it would be reflected in this analysis) AND special elections AND 2021 statewide elections, I think there’s a pretty good case that democrats will still dominate the early voting and get shellacked on E day. In fairness, Florida could probably somewhat of an exception with the GOP still being the party of high propensity voters there.

With that being said, a few days worth of data on 4 states is not conclusive and does not point to a definite GOP victory. It is, however, either a nothing burger or a good sign for the GOP to some degree. The fact that the first reaction of atlas is to declare that they are 100% sure it’s irrelevant shows that: A) if there is a wave, nobody will see it coming and B) this is a forum of advocacy more so than “looking at the data”

No one is saying its "irrelevant" but there's no way to really gleam either way. We don't know what we don't know for many of these states and how things are turning out this year vs. 2020.

Florida could easily be a case of Dems not being motivated. Or it could be GOP going back to their habits pre-2020 of voting heavily my mail. We literally don't know, so anyone making conclusions is just lying.

[wbrocks67]

This is exactly why it's hard to make a comparison in any state that didn't have a ton of mail-in voting prior to 2020. The way people vote is going to be all over the place this year compared to 2020.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1581335824737918976

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This is exactly why it's hard to make a comparison in any state that didn't have a ton of mail-in voting prior to 2020. The way people vote is going to be all over the place this year compared to 2020.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1581335824737918976

That actually looks like a worrying sign for Rs

[UncleSam]

This is exactly why it's hard to make a comparison in any state that didn't have a ton of mail-in voting prior to 2020. The way people vote is going to be all over the place this year compared to 2020.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1581335824737918976

That actually looks like a worrying sign for Rs

?

Mail ballots, the most Democrat-friendly form of voting, have dropped by 90% compared to 2020. How is that ever bad for Rs.

Note that I am not saying that it’s a death knell for Ds either - certainly they can still turn those voters out to EV or vote on ED, but Dems tend to do best when they can bank as many mail votes as possible well in advance.

[Holmes]

Here’s a concept: we don’t make any inferences or assumptions based on VBM or early voting numbers. Both sides can point out to things that look good for them so there’s no point in drawing conclusions.

[wbrocks67]

Here’s a concept: we don’t make any inferences or assumptions based on VBM or early voting numbers. Both sides can point out to things that look good for them so there’s no point in drawing conclusions.

The only thing that I think will be illuminating is going into Election Day when things have really picked up, and seeing the return rates by state.

(i.e., in PA for example, if Ds have a 80% return rate vs 75% for Rs, that's better for them, at least in showing enthusiasm, and vice versa)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the Pundits are gonna be wrong on not moving NC especially to tossup I can't wait til Sen Beasley

[SCNCmod]

All the Pundits are gonna be wrong on not moving NC especially to tossup I can't wait til Sen Beasley

Beasley can definitely win NC ... but she has to start hitting back with response ads- to some of the attack ads against her (Ads that the ones running non stop, saying things like that she wants to tax families making under 75k, etc).

[Minnesota Mike]

Here’s a concept: we don’t make any inferences or assumptions based on VBM or early voting numbers. Both sides can point out to things that look good for them so there’s no point in drawing conclusions.

You're no fun . I have been told on this board to ignore early voting, ignore polls, ignore fundraising, ignore debates etc. What exactly should we be looking at?

For the record I think you can learn something from early voting numbers if you have a little common sense about it. It's tougher this cycle with baselines scrambled by COVID/Trump in 2020 but if you know a little history and the sample is large enough you can spot some trends. For example last year a lot of people were predicting the NM-01 special would be relatively close but if you paid attention to the early vote (historically 75%+ of the total vote) you could see it would be a Democratic blowout. Or you could look at Nevada in 2014 when Dem turnout absolutely collapsed in early voting you knew it was going to be disaster for the D's. Where people run into trouble in analyzing the EV is when they try to draw too precise of conclusions from it (see FL 2016, 2018, 2020). Instead of saying it looks close and turnout looks good people where trying to forecast an exact percentage lead for one party or the other.

[Person Man]

I'd be skeptical of mail in voting numbers too. Unless you live in a state that automatically mails you one, its not hard to imagine a good chunk of 2020 mail-in voters are just going to simplify things and vote in person. I know I am.

Same here.  My family and I have voted early in person for years, but in 2020 we voted by mail.  This year we're going back to EIP.

I plan on going there to vote this year. I wouldn’t already conclude that Republicans are going to win because Democrats are lazy this year. Comparisons to 2018 and 2014 would be more useful.

[xavier110]

VBM should be fairly interesting to track in AZ. 95 percent of the D primary vote was by mail this year. Curious to see how that holds up in the general. I think it’s safe to assume that registered D turnout in AZ will basically equal the final early voting numbers — almost every registered D is on the early ballot list, unlike Rs and Is.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1582066404362457088

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1582066404362457088

That's quite a turnout extrapolation from one partial day of early voting, although I do think a turnout between 2018 and 2020 is entirely reasonable.  On a related note, the AJC has launched a Georgia early voting tracker: https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-voting/.  Be sure to scroll all the way down the page for demographic breakdowns.

ETA: And also (as my co-Georgian Adam Griffin reminded me) https://georgiavotes.com/

[Minnesota Mike]

That's quite a turnout extrapolation from one partial day of early voting, although I do think a turnout between 2018 and 2020 is entirely reasonable.  On a related note, the AJC has launched a Georgia early voting tracker: https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-voting/.  Be sure to scroll all the way down the page for demographic breakdowns.

ETA: And also (as my co-Georgian Adam Griffin reminded me) https://georgiavotes.com/

Yeah the extrapolation is premature, I was posting the tweet more for just the numbers. Thanks for the link.

[wbrocks67]

Above 2018 seems pretty likely, given all the indicators. Would again suggest that both sides are energized to vote.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 2,107,858 (+375k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 11,450,277 14,928,407 (+3,478k)

[wbrocks67]

Democrats have now taken the lead in the better 'return rate'. Something to continue to watch.

[Gracile]

Illinois:

https://twitter.com/ILElectionData/status/1582045179909115905

[wbrocks67]

Holy s***. If this ends up at like 105k-ish, that's right in between 2020 (140K) and 2018 (70K)

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582114647590993920

[GeorgiaModerate]

Holy s***. If this ends up at like 105k-ish, that's right in between 2020 (140K) and 2018 (70K)

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582114647590993920

Another consideration is that not all early voting locations are available yet.  Although every county started early voting today (I believe), some don't open all the locations right away.  For example, in my county (Forsyth), the only voting location that opened today is in the county elections office in Cumming.  Several satellite locations will open up next Monday, and that's when I'll go vote.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582176445404971008

That's a huge first day for a midterm. Who does high turnout help more?

[Brittain33]

I mean… can anyone say with confidence? Low turnout would have been good for Republicans in a typical midterm, but past a certain point high turnout activates more MAGAs than Dems, so… who knows?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'll be voting in Georgia on election day

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/mrbrownsir/status/1582197311740182528

[ajc0918]

Not going to take too much from Georgia’s Day 1 numbers but that breakdown by race numbers are not what republicans want to see.