Early Voting thread.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1583955336305643522

I assume by 2 years ago he meant 2018.

Bad weather today in Clark County, heavy winds, but I think we are seeing a real shift to absentees from in person voting in Nevada. We won't know anything useful until we start seeing absentee numbers.

That's bad news for Cortez Masto. Very bad news. Yes, it might be because of the weather, but who's to say it won't be this windy on Election Day?

[Brittain33]

Reminder that Nevada is now mailing ballots to all voters for the first time.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1583955336305643522

I assume by 2 years ago he meant 2018.

Bad weather today in Clark County, heavy winds, but I think we are seeing a real shift to absentees from in person voting in Nevada. We won't know anything useful until we start seeing absentee numbers.

That's bad news for Cortez Masto. Very bad news. Yes, it might be because of the weather, but who's to say it won't be this windy on Election Day?

Um, it's exactly the opposite if anything. When Nevada started mailing ballots to all voters in 2020 Republicans dominated the in person voting while Democrats dominated absentees. That being said 1 day with bad weather I wouldn't read to much into whatever happens today.

[Ferguson97]

Anecdotal, but I'm working with GOTV in Nevada and there were lots of people reporting bad weather.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1583955336305643522

I assume by 2 years ago he meant 2018.

Bad weather today in Clark County, heavy winds, but I think we are seeing a real shift to absentees from in person voting in Nevada. We won't know anything useful until we start seeing absentee numbers.

That's bad news for Cortez Masto. Very bad news. Yes, it might be because of the weather, but who's to say it won't be this windy on Election Day?

I don't think that many voters ultimately end up voting on Election Day in NV.

[axiomsofdominion]

Georgia Early Vote numbers are out, 817k counting mail ballots, up ~88000 today. Waiting for people to do demographic breakdowns.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia Early Vote numbers are out, 817k counting mail ballots, up ~88000 today. Waiting for people to do demographic breakdowns.

Welcome to the forum! Check out the Georgia megathread in the Gubernatorial & Statewide Elections board. Our resident Georgia data guru Adam Griffin posts periodic demographic analysis of the state’s early vote.

[Adam Griffin]

Day 6 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 87,831 voters cast ballots Saturday, for a grand total of 816,884 votes.

Breakdown of Saturday's voters:

Code:

46170	White	52.57%
28153	Black	32.05%
2260         Asian	2.57%
2067 	Latino	2.35%
9181 	Other	10.46%

48675	Female	55.42%
38909	Male	        44.30%	
247          Other         0.28%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

407481	White	55.53%
238372	Black	32.63%
10175       Latino	1.50%
9723	        Asian	1.47%
63302	Other	8.87%

394622	Female	54.27%
333383	Male	        45.57%	
1048	        Other	0.16%

[axiomsofdominion]

Day 6 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 87,831 voters cast ballots Saturday, for a grand total of 816,884 votes.

Breakdown of Saturday's voters:

Code:

46170 White 52.57%
28153 Black 32.05%
2260         Asian 2.57%
2067 Latino 2.35%
9181 Other 10.46%

48675 Female 55.42%
38909 Male        44.30% 
247          Other         0.28%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

407481 White 55.53%
238372 Black 32.63%
10175       Latino 1.50%
9723        Asian 1.47%
63302 Other 8.87%

394622 Female 54.27%
333383 Male        45.57% 
1048        Other 0.16%

A lot of R counties will be way down tomorrow, any idea what big african american pop counties will be open and if there is a larger thana verage souls to the polls push?

IIRC a given county only needs to staff 2/3 early vote Sundays?

[Adam Griffin]

Day 6 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 87,831 voters cast ballots Saturday, for a grand total of 816,884 votes.

Breakdown of Saturday's voters:

Code:

46170 White 52.57%
28153 Black 32.05%
2260         Asian 2.57%
2067 Latino 2.35%
9181 Other 10.46%

48675 Female 55.42%
38909 Male        44.30% 
247          Other         0.28%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

407481 White 55.53%
238372 Black 32.63%
10175       Latino 1.50%
9723        Asian 1.47%
63302 Other 8.87%

394622 Female 54.27%
333383 Male        45.57% 
1048        Other 0.16%

A lot of R counties will be way down tomorrow, any idea what big african american pop counties will be open and if there is a larger thana verage souls to the polls push?

IIRC a given county only needs to staff 2/3 early vote Sundays?

Sunday voting is optional and up to each county whether it does it or not. All counties are now required to have 2 Saturdays of early voting (today and next week), as opposed to the 1 that'd have been next week in previous cycles.

These are the only counties I'm sure that have at least 1 Sunday (if not 2) of early in-person voting (roughly 30% of the state's population; 44% black, 39% white VAP):

[axiomsofdominion]

I'm not seeing a list, even switched to Edge in case it was an extension.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm not seeing a list, even switched to Edge in case it was an extension.

You might have been logged out or unable to see the image I posted due to post count (not sure if images are restricted for new registrants), but:

Cobb
Fulton
Dekalb
Rockdale
Clayton
Athens-Clarke
Baldwin

These seven counties combined were Biden +44 (versus the rest of the state, which was Trump +19).

https://snipboard.io/kXMQCp.jpg

[axiomsofdominion]

I'm not seeing a list, even switched to Edge in case it was an extension.

You might have been logged out or unable to see the image I posted due to post count (not sure if images are restricted for new registrants), but:

Cobb
Fulton
Dekalb
Rockdale
Clayton
Athens-Clarke
Baldwin

These six counties combined were Biden +44 (versus the rest of the state, which was Trump +19).

Okay so the big 5, minus Gwinnett. Interesting. No Chatham or Muscogee or Doughtery? Sad times.

I guess tomorrow will be very good proportionally for Warnock but a small overall increase.

Unless I'm reading Georgia votes wrong the same day in 2018 saw only 6000 votes?

Also yeah I had to remove the image link from your post since it kept telling me I wasn't allowed to post links.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm not seeing a list, even switched to Edge in case it was an extension.

You might have been logged out or unable to see the image I posted due to post count (not sure if images are restricted for new registrants), but:

Cobb
Fulton
Dekalb
Rockdale
Clayton
Athens-Clarke
Baldwin

These six counties combined were Biden +44 (versus the rest of the state, which was Trump +19).

Okay so the big 5, minus Gwinnett. Interesting. No Chatham or Muscogee or Doughtery? Sad times.

I guess tomorrow will be very good proportionally for Warnock but a small overall increase.

Unless I'm reading Georgia votes wrong the same day in 2018 saw only 6000 votes?

Also yeah I had to remove the image link from your post since it kept telling me I wasn't allowed to post links.

Actually, it does appear Dougherty is open both Sundays, so that's #8.

Picked through this list for the notables, but I can't be bothered to siphon through all 159 counties individually and deal with their individualized ways of listing schedules (I assume counties that don't explicitly list Sunday dates for voting aren't offering it).

https://sos.ga.gov/advanced-voting-location-information

[axiomsofdominion]

Sunday Voting Large Warnock Counties:

Newton, Henry, Bibb, Chatham, Cobb, Fulton, Clayton, Muscogee, DeKalb, Rockdale, Clarke, Richmond, Dougherty, Baldwin

No Sunday Voting:
Douglas, Liberty, Gwinnett

There's another set of counties worth maybe 8000 of Warnock's lead in 2021 I didn't check.

Note that some, maybe half, of these counties only have early voting on the 30th.

I'm not seeing a list, even switched to Edge in case it was an extension.

You might have been logged out or unable to see the image I posted due to post count (not sure if images are restricted for new registrants), but:

Cobb
Fulton
Dekalb
Rockdale
Clayton
Athens-Clarke
Baldwin

These six counties combined were Biden +44 (versus the rest of the state, which was Trump +19).

Okay so the big 5, minus Gwinnett. Interesting. No Chatham or Muscogee or Doughtery? Sad times.

I guess tomorrow will be very good proportionally for Warnock but a small overall increase.

Unless I'm reading Georgia votes wrong the same day in 2018 saw only 6000 votes?

Also yeah I had to remove the image link from your post since it kept telling me I wasn't allowed to post links.

Actually, it does appear Dougherty is open both Sundays, so that's #8.

Picked through this list for the notables, but I can't be bothered to siphon through all 159 counties individually and deal with their individualized ways of listing schedules (I assume counties that don't explicitly list Sunday dates for voting aren't offering it).

Chatham County:
wtoc/2022/08/24/chatham-co-board-elections-early-voting-location-hours-extended/

I can't post links so you'll have to add the wwwcom url stuff or google.

They also approved Sunday voting on October 23rd and 30th from 11 a.m. to 5 p.m. which is an hour longer than in the past.

Liberty is a no sadly.

Newton County:
SUNDAY – OCTOBER 30,2022       11:00 AM – 4:00 PM

co.newton.ga.us/169/Ways-to-Vote

Henry County:
Sunday, October 30 / 1 pm to 5 pm

mhfnews/elections/early-voting/

Sadly no Douglas County.

Muscogee claims there is voting 7 days a week the whole time?

Bibb County:
"Voters can already begin casting ballots ahead of the November 8 Election. You can vote early October 17 through November 4. Polls will be open at three locations from 8:30 a.m. – 5:30 p.m., Monday-Friday. Weekend early voting is happening on two Saturdays October 22 & 29 from 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. at all three locations. It is also available on Sunday, October 23, from 1:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m., but only at the Board of Elections Office.
The three early voting locations are:
Board of Elections Office (2525 Pio Nono Avenue)
Elaine H. Lucas Senior Center (132 Willie Smokie Glover Drive)
Theron Ussery Recreation Center (815 N. Macon Park Drive)"


I only check the ~16-17 counties that Warnock won by 10000+ votes in the 2021 runoff. Presumably some of the smaller pro-Dem counties will have it as well but not relevant to the vote totals probably.

[Minnesota Mike]

Day 1 of early voting in Washoe County NV (Reno).

https://www.washoecounty.gov/voters/reporting_and_statistics/electionreports/general_daily_turnout_counts.php

As expected Republicans lead in person turnout, Democrats Absentee voting.

Total

Dems 3,520
Reps  2,961
Other 1,771

In person

Dems 1,030
Reps 1,348
Other 487

Mail

Dems 2,490
Reps 1,614
Other 1,284

Washoe county has a slight Republican registration edge.

[axiomsofdominion]

Day 1 of early voting in Washoe County NV (Reno).


As expected Republicans lead in person turnout, Democrats Absentee voting.

Total

Dems 3,520
Reps  2,961
Other 1,771

In person

Dems 1,030
Reps 1,348
Other 1,284

Mail

Dems 2,490
Reps 1,614
Other 1,284

Washoe county has a slight Republican registration edge.

I need a sweet website with graphs and tables comparing this to 2018/2020 like we have for Georgia. This is the major bellwether Senate race and having moderately meaningful early voting data would be awesome.

[soundchaser]

Arizona numbers look good, but I'm trying not to infer too much from them because we really don't know what patterns will be like this cycle.

Per Ralston:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1583956876609212417?s=20&t=VO8uvjJ...

[Minnesota Mike]

Washoe in person votes day 1 2018 - 6,917
Washoe in person votes day 1 2022 - 2,865

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/5950/636794321702970000

Sorry, no party breakdown or daily absentee breakdown.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Wait, are the Georgia numbers good for Ds? They are outperforming the Black % and Souls To The Polls is tomorrow. Nevada looks like sh**t but GA looks fine. Could someone with knowledge of the situation discuss that more?

[Minnesota Mike]

Wait, are the Georgia numbers good for Ds? They are outperforming the Black % and Souls To The Polls is tomorrow. Nevada looks like sh**t but GA looks fine. Could someone with knowledge of the situation discuss that more?

I don't know if tomorrow is actually an organized "souls to the polls" type turnout day. As was pointed out above much of GA is not open for voting.

"Souls to the polls" is actually kind of overrated as a turnout drive to my understanding. It attracts a lot of media but in terms of actual number of voters it is not that significant. Turnout of African Americans appears to be greater Sundays because most small rural counties are closed for voting while large urban counties are open.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Early Votes: 7,101,488
Mail Ballots Requested: 41,509,791

[Minnesota Mike]

Total turnout Day 1 Clark County (no party breakdown)

2022- 11,378
2018- 30,436

Wow. Looks like everyone is voting absentee.

[axiomsofdominion]

Total turnout Day 1 Clark County (no party breakdown)

2022- 11,378
2018- 30,436

Wow. Looks like everyone is voting absentee.

Does the mail ballot situation change things? You are posting early in person yeah?

[Minnesota Mike]

Total turnout Day 1 Clark County (no party breakdown)

2022- 11,378
2018- 30,436

Wow. Looks like everyone is voting absentee.

Does the mail ballot situation change things? You are posting early in person yeah?

Yes I am posting early in person. No absentee numbers in Clark yet. How the move to absentee voting changes things? ?. I do know early voting in NV is going to be pretty useless this cycle as a predictive tool.