Early Voting thread.

[wbrocks67]

It's obv very early, but this is quite interesting.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1580593535023472640

[BenjiG98]

As of 10/13/22 for Ada County, Idaho:

• 41,717 ballots requested (up from 20,275 on this day in 2018)
• 7,613 ballots returned, for a rate of 18.2% (down from 27% on this day in 2018)

Republicans make up 48.6% of requested ballots, Democrats 26.5%, and Unaffiliated 24.23%

[It’s so Joever]

As of 10/13/22 for Ada County, Idaho:

• 41,717 ballots requested (up from 20,275 on this day in 2018)
• 7,613 ballots returned, for a rate of 18.2% (down from 27% on this day in 2018)

Republicans make up 48.6% of requested ballots, Democrats 26.5%, and Unaffiliated 24.23%

Any knowledge of what partisanship looked like in 2018?
Wither way its still BRUTAL for Dems because they should be leading in this type of voting, even in redder areas.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/13/22 for Ada County, Idaho:

• 41,717 ballots requested (up from 20,275 on this day in 2018)
• 7,613 ballots returned, for a rate of 18.2% (down from 27% on this day in 2018)

Republicans make up 48.6% of requested ballots, Democrats 26.5%, and Unaffiliated 24.23%

Any knowledge of what partisanship looked like in 2018?
Wither way its still BRUTAL for Dems because they should be leading in this type of voting, even in redder areas.

I mean, Idaho's partisan registration is R58-D13 (R+45). So EV being R+22 is slicing that in half.

[It’s so Joever]

As of 10/13/22 for Ada County, Idaho:

• 41,717 ballots requested (up from 20,275 on this day in 2018)
• 7,613 ballots returned, for a rate of 18.2% (down from 27% on this day in 2018)

Republicans make up 48.6% of requested ballots, Democrats 26.5%, and Unaffiliated 24.23%

Any knowledge of what partisanship looked like in 2018?
Wither way its still BRUTAL for Dems because they should be leading in this type of voting, even in redder areas.

I mean, Idaho's partisan registration is R58-D13 (R+45). So EV being R+22 is slicing that in half.

This is Ada County…

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/13/22 for Ada County, Idaho:

• 41,717 ballots requested (up from 20,275 on this day in 2018)
• 7,613 ballots returned, for a rate of 18.2% (down from 27% on this day in 2018)

Republicans make up 48.6% of requested ballots, Democrats 26.5%, and Unaffiliated 24.23%

Any knowledge of what partisanship looked like in 2018?
Wither way its still BRUTAL for Dems because they should be leading in this type of voting, even in redder areas.

I mean, Idaho's partisan registration is R58-D13 (R+45). So EV being R+22 is slicing that in half.

This is Ada County…

Yes, and given Idaho's registration, I doubt it's that much better even in a bluer area.

[soundchaser]

As of 10/13/22 for Ada County, Idaho:

• 41,717 ballots requested (up from 20,275 on this day in 2018)
• 7,613 ballots returned, for a rate of 18.2% (down from 27% on this day in 2018)

Republicans make up 48.6% of requested ballots, Democrats 26.5%, and Unaffiliated 24.23%

Any knowledge of what partisanship looked like in 2018?
Wither way its still BRUTAL for Dems because they should be leading in this type of voting, even in redder areas.

"Does anyone have numbers so I can back up the narrative that I've already made clear I support without them?"

[It’s so Joever]

As of 10/13/22 for Ada County, Idaho:

• 41,717 ballots requested (up from 20,275 on this day in 2018)
• 7,613 ballots returned, for a rate of 18.2% (down from 27% on this day in 2018)

Republicans make up 48.6% of requested ballots, Democrats 26.5%, and Unaffiliated 24.23%

Any knowledge of what partisanship looked like in 2018?
Wither way its still BRUTAL for Dems because they should be leading in this type of voting, even in redder areas.

I mean, Idaho's partisan registration is R58-D13 (R+45). So EV being R+22 is slicing that in half.

This is Ada County…

Yes, and given Idaho's registration, I doubt it's that much better even in a bluer area.

With Ada County, 2020 stats show a registration of around 40% R and 24% D, that is R+16. Meanwhile the requests are R+22. I will let you do the rest.

[It’s so Joever]

As of 10/13/22 for Ada County, Idaho:

• 41,717 ballots requested (up from 20,275 on this day in 2018)
• 7,613 ballots returned, for a rate of 18.2% (down from 27% on this day in 2018)

Republicans make up 48.6% of requested ballots, Democrats 26.5%, and Unaffiliated 24.23%

Any knowledge of what partisanship looked like in 2018?
Wither way its still BRUTAL for Dems because they should be leading in this type of voting, even in redder areas.

"Does anyone have numbers so I can back up the narrative that I've already made clear I support without them?"

Literally anyone who knows how Ada county voted in 2020 can tell this is not a good sign, wven without exact numbers. I dont know why you all are in denial.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/13/22 for Ada County, Idaho:

• 41,717 ballots requested (up from 20,275 on this day in 2018)
• 7,613 ballots returned, for a rate of 18.2% (down from 27% on this day in 2018)

Republicans make up 48.6% of requested ballots, Democrats 26.5%, and Unaffiliated 24.23%

Any knowledge of what partisanship looked like in 2018?
Wither way its still BRUTAL for Dems because they should be leading in this type of voting, even in redder areas.

I mean, Idaho's partisan registration is R58-D13 (R+45). So EV being R+22 is slicing that in half.

This is Ada County…

Yes, and given Idaho's registration, I doubt it's that much better even in a bluer area.

With Ada County, 2020 stats show a registration of around 40% R and 24% D, that is R+16. Meanwhile the requests are R+22. I will let you do the rest.

I'll gladly admit I was wrong then. But it's also still... Idaho.

[soundchaser]

Literally anyone who knows how Ada county voted in 2020 can tell this is not a good sign, wven without exact numbers. I dont know why you all are in denial.

Again, "literally anyone who knows" about early voting should realize it can't tell us much outside of Nevada.

[It’s so Joever]

Literally anyone who knows how Ada county voted in 2020 can tell this is not a good sign, wven without exact numbers. I dont know why you all are in denial.

Again, "literally anyone who knows" about early voting should realize it can't tell us much outside of Nevada.

I like how it goes from “give me proof” to “well actually this doesnt matter” with you bloomers. I would say shifting the goalposts, but that uneremphasizes just how ludicrous this is.

[soundchaser]

Literally anyone who knows how Ada county voted in 2020 can tell this is not a good sign, wven without exact numbers. I dont know why you all are in denial.

Again, "literally anyone who knows" about early voting should realize it can't tell us much outside of Nevada.

I like how it goes from “give me proof” to “well actually this doesnt matter” with you bloomers. I would say shifting the goalposts, but that uneremphasizes just how ludicrous this is.

No no, you misunderstand me. I think building a narrative from early voting in most states is ridiculous - but even MORE ridiculous is building it without even an attempt at backing it up.

[Brittain33]

Are we drawing conclusions from early vote data? You know we’re not supposed to draw conclusions from early vote data outside of Nevada.

[BenjiG98]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1580678712936128512?s=20&t=rp_SXwd...

[Senator Incitatus]

Are we drawing conclusions from early vote data? You know we’re not supposed to draw conclusions from early vote data outside of Nevada.

Why not? It's fun and changes nothing. Live a little.

[Brittain33]

Are we drawing conclusions from early vote data? You know we’re not supposed to draw conclusions from early vote data outside of Nevada.

Why not? It's fun and changes nothing. Live a little.

It’s fun to look at and talk about knowing it’s not predictive, but that Ada county-type argument is going to get old quickly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota update, number of ballots cast has doubled:

Applications submitted (10/13/22): 400,975
Accepted ballots (10/13/22): 99,252

Hennepin and Ramsey share is at just over 40% which is a drop from the previous number of about half.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1580678712936128512?s=20&t=rp_SXwd...

NV is going to be quite interesting this year with every voter getting a ballot.

In objective theory, that is good for Ds if what they're worried about is a "turnout" issue.

[bilaps]

Literally anyone who knows how Ada county voted in 2020 can tell this is not a good sign, wven without exact numbers. I dont know why you all are in denial.

Again, "literally anyone who knows" about early voting should realize it can't tell us much outside of Nevada.

FL could tell us something as well

[Brittain33]

Literally anyone who knows how Ada county voted in 2020 can tell this is not a good sign, wven without exact numbers. I dont know why you all are in denial.

Again, "literally anyone who knows" about early voting should realize it can't tell us much outside of Nevada.

FL could tell us something as well

Nevada really is unique here. FL early voting hasn’t consistently indicated actual results in the last several years because who early votes there and who doesn’t has varied wildly with Republicans adopting and then abandoning mail voting and then surging on Election Day.

[wbrocks67]

Literally anyone who knows how Ada county voted in 2020 can tell this is not a good sign, wven without exact numbers. I dont know why you all are in denial.

Again, "literally anyone who knows" about early voting should realize it can't tell us much outside of Nevada.

FL could tell us something as well

Nevada really is unique here. FL early voting hasn’t consistently indicated actual results in the last several years because who early votes there and who doesn’t has varied wildly with Republicans adopting and then abandoning mail voting and then surging on Election Day.

And it appears that as the war on mail-in ballots has subsided a bit with Trump not being in office, Republicans seem more likely to return to mail-in ballots now in FL.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Total Early Votes: 1,732,895 (+374k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 11,450,277 (+174k)

[It’s so Joever]

Literally anyone who knows how Ada county voted in 2020 can tell this is not a good sign, wven without exact numbers. I dont know why you all are in denial.

Again, "literally anyone who knows" about early voting should realize it can't tell us much outside of Nevada.

FL could tell us something as well

Nevada really is unique here. FL early voting hasn’t consistently indicated actual results in the last several years because who early votes there and who doesn’t has varied wildly with Republicans adopting and then abandoning mail voting and then surging on Election Day.

And it appears that as the war on mail-in ballots has subsided a bit with Trump not being in office, Republicans seem more likely to return to mail-in ballots now in FL.

Ah yes, thats why they are returning Mail in ballots at higher rates instead of the obvious reason.

[wbrocks67]

Literally anyone who knows how Ada county voted in 2020 can tell this is not a good sign, wven without exact numbers. I dont know why you all are in denial.

Again, "literally anyone who knows" about early voting should realize it can't tell us much outside of Nevada.

FL could tell us something as well

Nevada really is unique here. FL early voting hasn’t consistently indicated actual results in the last several years because who early votes there and who doesn’t has varied wildly with Republicans adopting and then abandoning mail voting and then surging on Election Day.

And it appears that as the war on mail-in ballots has subsided a bit with Trump not being in office, Republicans seem more likely to return to mail-in ballots now in FL.

Ah yes, thats why they are returning Mail in ballots at higher rates instead of the obvious reason.

I wasn't speaking to return rates. I was speaking to the overall % of requests from D to R. In FL, Rs have historically had a good mail-in ballot reception until 2020. It would not be a surprise if we saw a return to that this year without Trump fear mongering about it.