Early Voting thread.

[It’s so Joever]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not sure anything is really comparable to 2020, which was a (hopefully) unique event.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

There’s one caveat here and that’s the fact that the covid caucus might now be willing to vote in person which could diminish democrats’ actual mail-in numbers. But if the total mail-in numbers start to approach 2020 numbers or if republicans approach their own totals for 2020 mail-ins and these patterns continue, I would call it.

We’ve also seen that the early/E-day disparity is wide as ever in the primaries so I don’t think democrats doing a 180 on vote method can explain all of it.

[HidingCommentary]

I'd be skeptical of mail in voting numbers too. Unless you live in a state that automatically mails you one, its not hard to imagine a good chunk of 2020 mail-in voters are just going to simplify things and vote in person. I know I am.

[HidingCommentary]

25 days till the slaughter? Well thats unhinged.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am anxiously awaiting results but compare these results to 2010 and you see that R voter turnout was much higher in 2010/ than in 2018 or 2020 the Rs are supposed to be advantages in Midterms they're not it's a 303 map anyways we're not winning FL


It doesn't matter for Oz he was down 6 pts anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

25 days till the slaughter? Well thats unhinged.

He's a Doomer just like Snow Labrador

[HidingCommentary]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

There’s one caveat here and that’s the fact that the covid caucus might now be willing to vote in person which could diminish democrats’ actual mail-in numbers. But if the total mail-in numbers start to approach 2020 numbers or if republicans approach their own totals for 2020 mail-ins and these patterns continue, I would call it.

We’ve also seen that the early/E-day disparity is wide as ever in the primaries so I don’t think democrats doing a 180 on vote method can explain all of it.

Can we though?

High propensity democrats are likely to vote early and by mail. Low propensity democrats would likely vote on election day? If enthusiasm is as high as polls are showing, there's probably alot of democrats who are just going to vote on election day. Myself included.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why we must wait for results not read too much in  Early vote I said compare these results to 2010/2014 Numbers where Rs were advantage the Rs are way below their mark in those yrs

[HidingCommentary]

25 days till the slaughter? Well thats unhinged.

He's a Doomer just like Snow Labrador

Oh. That makes sense. Its not wrong to think Republicans are favored, but going around and acting like everybody is an idiot for not seeing it, thats pretty gross in my opinion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just like on my prediction maps I won't punch R for the swing states outside of PA, WI, AZ, GA and NV and NH I am gonna let the results punch it for me, but you never know what happens on Eday there are always upsets whom would of thought Collins and Tillis we're gonna win or Beshear or Laura Kelly we never get the same maps on Eday it's very unlikely Rs are gonna crack the blue wall that means D wave insurance not R wave insurance

It's unlikely we are gonna get the same 303 map again this yr we have OH, NC, FL and UT as wave insurance

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

There’s one caveat here and that’s the fact that the covid caucus might now be willing to vote in person which could diminish democrats’ actual mail-in numbers. But if the total mail-in numbers start to approach 2020 numbers or if republicans approach their own totals for 2020 mail-ins and these patterns continue, I would call it.

We’ve also seen that the early/E-day disparity is wide as ever in the primaries so I don’t think democrats doing a 180 on vote method can explain all of it.

Can we though?

High propensity democrats are likely to vote early and by mail. Low propensity democrats would likely vote on election day? If enthusiasm is as high as polls are showing, there's probably alot of democrats who are just going to vote on election day. Myself included.

Quinnipiac asked this question in a recent poll. It’s just one data point but they found:

Warnock winning mail voters 66-28
Warnock winning early in person 59-40
Walker winning E day 60-37

Thanks to 13% of democrats (vs 7% of republicans) voting by mail, and 42% of republicans (vs 20% of democrats) voting on E day. There’s a logical argument to be made that the difference will be less pronounced than 2020. There’s a logical argument to be made that a bunch of first time voters will stumble into the polls on E day. But there’s no indication that the vote method split has completely subsided. If it’s 42-38 in Florida the entire time, the entire Republican ticket will win by literally double digits.

[wbrocks67]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

Not sure what your point is. Like others have said, voting patterns are not going to be the same as 2020, especially in states where voting by mail was a newer thing in that year.

[HidingCommentary]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

There’s one caveat here and that’s the fact that the covid caucus might now be willing to vote in person which could diminish democrats’ actual mail-in numbers. But if the total mail-in numbers start to approach 2020 numbers or if republicans approach their own totals for 2020 mail-ins and these patterns continue, I would call it.

We’ve also seen that the early/E-day disparity is wide as ever in the primaries so I don’t think democrats doing a 180 on vote method can explain all of it.

Can we though?

High propensity democrats are likely to vote early and by mail. Low propensity democrats would likely vote on election day? If enthusiasm is as high as polls are showing, there's probably alot of democrats who are just going to vote on election day. Myself included.

Quinnipiac asked this question in a recent poll. It’s just one data point but they found:

Warnock winning mail voters 66-28
Warnock winning early in person 59-40
Walker winning E day 60-37

Thanks to 13% of democrats (vs 7% of republicans) voting by mail, and 42% of republicans (vs 20% of democrats) voting on E day. There’s a logical argument to be made that the difference will be less pronounced than 2020. There’s a logical argument to be made that a bunch of first time voters will stumble into the polls on E day. But there’s no indication that the vote method split has completely subsided. If it’s 42-38 in Florida the entire time, the entire Republican ticket will win by literally double digits.

Only if democrats are voting a majority by mail. If we've gone back to somewhat normal voting habits, that's pretty on par for past Florida elections.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'd be skeptical of mail in voting numbers too. Unless you live in a state that automatically mails you one, its not hard to imagine a good chunk of 2020 mail-in voters are just going to simplify things and vote in person. I know I am.

Same here.  My family and I have voted early in person for years, but in 2020 we voted by mail.  This year we're going back to EIP.

[wbrocks67]

I'd be skeptical of mail in voting numbers too. Unless you live in a state that automatically mails you one, its not hard to imagine a good chunk of 2020 mail-in voters are just going to simplify things and vote in person. I know I am.

Same here.  My family and I have voted early in person for years, but in 2020 we voted by mail.  This year we're going back to EIP.

Same.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

Those Florida numbers should be worrying for Dems

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The notion that Democrats are going to vote by mail as much as in 2020 only makes sense if you actually believe that most Democrats are Arthur Chu-like freaks who'll avoid all physical contact for life which is even dumber than assuming that the average Democrat is like a stereotypically woke Twitter poster.

[TML]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

Those Florida numbers should be worrying for Dems

In terms of FL, it should also be noted that Democrats had more registered voters than Republicans up until late 2021. These numbers can partly be explained by a changed electorate (in fact, a retired Democratic political strategist believes that Democrats could have won the last several gubernatorial races, along with the 2018 senate race, had they worked to main their massive voter registration advantage they had during the late 2000s/early 2010s).

[Minnesota Mike]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

Those Florida numbers should be worrying for Dems

Until in person early voting starts we really do not know anything. Before 2020 Republicans usually did better with absentees in Florida and Dems did better with in person early voting. Until in person voting starts it's hard to guess how much things have snapped back to old patterns.

[soundchaser]

I remember analyses of Florida’s 2016 early vote that suggested Clinton’s lead was insurmountable. But they were modeled off the 2012 electorate — which didn’t have a number of low-propensity Trump voters who showed up on Election Day.

It’s foolish to read too much into these numbers, especially when trying to compare them to an election held during a once-in-a-lifetime global pandemic.

[Brittain33]

Dems are going to lose in Florida anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

Those Florida numbers should be worrying for Dems

Ds are losing FL the last polls had DeSantis 11 and Rubio 6 we don't need FL

[wbrocks67]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

Those Florida numbers should be worrying for Dems

As others have said, would not be surprised if the GOP reverted to a stronger mail-in ballot apparatus, as they did pre-2020.

[Unelectable Bystander]

It’s not me saying that Dems will vote by mail, it’s the polls of Georgia/Texas/I think some other states where they actually said it. Coupling this with primary results, and the divide being present in primaries (for those  of you that say you are voting in person, I’m guessing you also did that in the primaries so it would be reflected in this analysis) AND special elections AND 2021 statewide elections, I think there’s a pretty good case that democrats will still dominate the early voting and get shellacked on E day. In fairness, Florida could probably somewhat of an exception with the GOP still being the party of high propensity voters there.

With that being said, a few days worth of data on 4 states is not conclusive and does not point to a definite GOP victory. It is, however, either a nothing burger or a good sign for the GOP to some degree. The fact that the first reaction of atlas is to declare that they are 100% sure it’s irrelevant shows that: A) if there is a wave, nobody will see it coming and B) this is a forum of advocacy more so than “looking at the data”