UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Blair]

What an awful day for policing.

One of the most damning reports about policing.

https://news.sky.com/story/rape-cases-dropped-by-met-police-due-to-broken-freezer-casey-review-hears-12839117

[JimJamUK]

The Greens at 13% is BS, but it would be interesting to see how it would break down in a general election and how it would compare to UKIP's similar showing in 2015. Presumably inner city student heavy seats would be to the Greens as various coastal seats were to UKIP.

Assuming such a situation requires a big fall in Labour’s fortunes compared to current polling (that’s where the general election Green vote comes from these days), then they would probably do better than UKIP in terms of seat numbers. The ‘progressive’ vote  is fairly concentrated geographically (the median constituency was 55% leave despite only 52% voting leave nationally, yet almost all of the most polarised constituencies went for remain), and unlike UKIP they wouldn’t really be taking significant chunks off both major parties, but rather overwhelmingly Labour and therefore they would be better positioned to win some seats off Labour (basically university seats as you said).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I would be cautious about being too reductive as university seat=Green. Plenty of seats filled with students and not particularly great Green results (e.g. Manchester Gorton and Central, several London seats) and plenty of high Green votes in other random places. Normally (but not always) towns and locales with an alternative vibe are a great place for Green votes - the sort of place hippies retire to or artisanal types set up shop (the Isle of Wight, Stroud, Glastonbury, Bury St Edmunds, the Forest of Dean) - amd even then you've got to explain relatively dull places like Solihull and North Herefordshire (?) where Greens have captured a niche.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, Leominster. One third angry farmers (whatever their actual employment), one third hippy types and one third your actual underclass. Of course the rest of the constituency is more 'normal', but...

[CumbrianLefty]

If the Greens do ever get as high as 13% in a national election one shouldn't assume the vast bulk of its new support would be ex-Labour voters either (though of course many would be) Indeed the only time to date the Greens managed the above - the 1989 Euro-elections - backs this thesis up.

[Blair]

Yeah the ‘inner city’ Labour seats whether in Manchester, London, Birmingham have a strong enough margin with voters the greens struggle to win; namely BAME and those living in social housing or some form.

Much like with Brighton the greens might actually need a seat that is already relatively marginal and where they can come up the middle- I would not be shocked if their first pick up is actually a Conservative seat.

[Coldstream]

I would be cautious about being too reductive as university seat=Green. Plenty of seats filled with students and not particularly great Green results (e.g. Manchester Gorton and Central, several London seats) and plenty of high Green votes in other random places. Normally (but not always) towns and locales with an alternative vibe are a great place for Green votes - the sort of place hippies retire to or artisanal types set up shop (the Isle of Wight, Stroud, Glastonbury, Bury St Edmunds, the Forest of Dean) - amd even then you've got to explain relatively dull places like Solihull and North Herefordshire (?) where Greens have captured a niche.

Yeah if the Greens started winning more than 2 seats, after Bristol West it’s likely they’d be winning places like Totnes, Stroud, Frome, Lewes, Calder Valley where there’s a high proportion of hippie types - before a repeat of the Lib Dem’s 2005/2010 support in student places.

Then it’d probably be more like ecologist votes in Europe, leafy shire areas that don’t want more development but are sick of the Tories.

[Torrain]

We’re up to 12 public Tory rebels on this afternoon’s Windsor Framework vote. Seems possible, maybe likely at this point, that Sunak is going to need Labour votes to get this through.

ERG decision isn’t expected until around midday, but given they’ve invited Jeffrey Donaldson to address their members this morning, and whip votes against it, I think we know their answer.

[Silent Hunter]

What an awful day for policing.

One of the most damning reports about policing.

https://news.sky.com/story/rape-cases-dropped-by-met-police-due-to-broken-freezer-casey-review-hears-12839117

I skimmed over the actual report last night. The Met will be lucky to mark its 200th birthday at this rate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What an awful day for policing.

One of the most damning reports about policing.

https://news.sky.com/story/rape-cases-dropped-by-met-police-due-to-broken-freezer-casey-review-hears-12839117

I skimmed over the actual report last night. The Met will be lucky to mark its 200th birthday at this rate.

How did it get this bad?

[YL]

We’re up to 12 public Tory rebels on this afternoon’s Windsor Framework vote. Seems possible, maybe likely at this point, that Sunak is going to need Labour votes to get this through.

ERG decision isn’t expected until around midday, but given they’ve invited Jeffrey Donaldson to address their members this morning, and whip votes against it, I think we know their answer.

And indeed the ERG are recommending a No vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...Calder Valley where there’s a high proportion of hippie types

That's really just one town and it's not that large. Though could certainly be the start of a decent GE vote in the future, the factors governing that being different to the factors governing decent Green votes in local elections (where they're basically Community Liberals with a different coloured rosette).

[CumbrianLefty]

I would be cautious about being too reductive as university seat=Green. Plenty of seats filled with students and not particularly great Green results (e.g. Manchester Gorton and Central, several London seats) and plenty of high Green votes in other random places. Normally (but not always) towns and locales with an alternative vibe are a great place for Green votes - the sort of place hippies retire to or artisanal types set up shop (the Isle of Wight, Stroud, Glastonbury, Bury St Edmunds, the Forest of Dean) - amd even then you've got to explain relatively dull places like Solihull and North Herefordshire (?) where Greens have captured a niche.

Yeah if the Greens started winning more than 2 seats, after Bristol West it’s likely they’d be winning places like Totnes, Stroud, Frome, Lewes, Calder Valley where there’s a high proportion of hippie types - before a repeat of the Lib Dem’s 2005/2010 support in student places.

Then it’d probably be more like ecologist votes in Europe, leafy shire areas that don’t want more development but are sick of the Tories.

The strength of Labour in both Stroud and Calder Valley is likely to impede any Green hopes there - the other seats you mention, where Labour is weak and has been for a long time, are more like it.

[icc]

...Calder Valley where there’s a high proportion of hippie types

That's really just one town and it's not that large. Though could certainly be the start of a decent GE vote in the future, the factors governing that being different to the factors governing decent Green votes in local elections (where they're basically Community Liberals with a different coloured rosette).

And the same is true for the other examples given.

[Torrain]

We’re up to 12 public Tory rebels on this afternoon’s Windsor Framework vote. Seems possible, maybe likely at this point, that Sunak is going to need Labour votes to get this through.

ERG decision isn’t expected until around midday, but given they’ve invited Jeffrey Donaldson to address their members this morning, and whip votes against it, I think we know their answer.

And indeed the ERG are recommending a No vote.

It's all getting quite juvenile - they've apparently kicked Steve Baker out of the main ERG WhatsApp group, after he criticised Johnson and defended the Bill. But they can't push him out of the other groups because he's the admin who set them up.

I bring it up, because that magical combinantion of petty and ineffective seems like a fair metaphor for the state of the ERG in 2023.

[Torrain]

Johnson has spent much of this initial round of questioning talking over Sir Bernard Jenkins, one of the Committee's Conservative members, and trying to justify the leaving party where he was photographed

He's getting incredibly testy, and he's been here barely an hour. He's sniping at the questioning MPs, and talked over Harman, who's mostly just trying to keep things civil, at least 4 or 5 times.

Hats off to whichever photographer got this shot, which sums up the session so far:

Edit: Johnson has lost his cool and raised his voice, to drop the following - “People who say that we were partying in lockdown simply do not know what they are talking about”.

[YL]

22 Tory rebels on Windsor, including the MP for Windsor, and both the last two PMs.

https://votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1504#noes

[Torrain]

22 Tory rebels on Windsor, including the MP for Windsor, and both the last two PMs.

https://votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1504#noes

Not all that many No votes. But a lot more startling when you note that 48 abstained (including members who participated in the debate, like Theresa Villiers).

Sunak only managed to get 280/355 Tory MPs to vote for the framework…

[Cassius]

22 Tory rebels on Windsor, including the MP for Windsor, and both the last two PMs.

https://votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1504#noes

Not all that many No votes. But a lot more startling when you note that 48 abstained (including members who participated in the debate, like Theresa Villiers).

Sunak only managed to get 280/355 Tory MPs to vote for the framework…

Considerably better than any May effort back in the day however…

[YL]

...Calder Valley where there’s a high proportion of hippie types

That's really just one town and it's not that large. Though could certainly be the start of a decent GE vote in the future, the factors governing that being different to the factors governing decent Green votes in local elections (where they're basically Community Liberals with a different coloured rosette).

To some extent it's true of Todmorden (and I think also Mytholmroyd) as well as Hebden Bridge, at least partly because people are being priced out of the latter.  This whole area has become very strong for Labour in local elections, but it's still less than half the seat -- if it were much more than that Calder Valley wouldn't have a Tory MP -- and any potential Green GE vote is suppressed by tactical voting.

[TheTide]

Johnson has spent much of this initial round of questioning talking over Sir Bernard Jenkins, one of the Committee's Conservative members, and trying to justify the leaving party where he was photographed

He's getting incredibly testy, and he's been here barely an hour. He's sniping at the questioning MPs, and talked over Harman, who's mostly just trying to keep things civil, at least 4 or 5 times.

Hats off to whichever photographer got this shot, which sums up the session so far:

Edit: Johnson has lost his cool and raised his voice, to drop the following - “People who say that we were partying in lockdown simply do not know what they are talking about”.

The guy sitting behind Johnson to the left (from the viewer's POV) is making some interesting facial expressions.

[Torrain]

Johnson has refused to commit to accepting the outcome of the Privilege Committee investigation.

The other clip that'll do the rounds - Johnson say that the parties were "essential" to the running of government:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1638578910878203907

[Torrain]

The guy sitting behind Johnson to the left (from the viewer's POV) is making some interesting facial expressions.

I believe that’s Johnson’s lawyer, the incredibly-named Lord Pannick. The guy seemed to be enjoying himself. But then again, if I got paid £220k, and then got a front row seat to my client putting on a performance like this, I’d probably find it hard to keep a straight face too:
https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/1638597065268756480

[Pericles]

I find it odd that this is the same guy who argued against the government in the prorogation case.

[TheTide]

I find it odd that this is the same guy who argued against the government in the prorogation case.

He came to my mind as I was watching but I didn't think it was him initially because of this.

Most people here probably don't know much about Coronation Street, but, as was pointed out during the prorogation case, he rather resembles Norris Cole.