UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Pericles]

It's amazing how robotic Liz Truss' speaking style is, she makes Theresa May look positively charismatic. It's crazy that she was allowed to get this far.

[Pericles]

The traditional left vs right divide was unusually clear in PMQs, it was refreshing to see actually. I think the Tories have made a big mistake by just going back to repeating Thatcherite talking points that will be out of date in 2024. Boris did a good job for two years of pretending to care about levelling up though the cracks were showing because he did not have the competence to actually deliver in a way that satisfied either his northern or southern voters.

[Pericles]

...someone who left the Lib Dems because they weren't approved as a candidate fast enough.

Oh is that why she defected when she did? I had always wondered what on Earth was behind that: not many people joined the Conservative Party after being a member of a different party in 1996 of all years!

The story as I heard it was that the panel told her to make a few improvements and come back, and shortly afterwards she left. Not impossible she could've ended up MP for Leeds North West and (completely ignoring all the other changes it would have caused) in the place of Jo Swinson come 2019, thinking about it.

It wouldn't have been much different if she was.
"The more voters see of Liz Truss the less they like her"
"Has familiarity of Jo Swinson bred contempt?"



At least Truss happened to be in the party that was already in government and so actually be Prime Minister for a bit.

[Pericles]

I'm increasingly missing Boris Johnson, this mini-budget just shows how much worse Truss' policies are. We're counting on Labour to put this government out of its misery in 2024.

[Pericles]

I don't think a Boris comeback in the same parliament would be credible, it would be too embarrassing for all the MPs that turned on him and he was seriously unpopular by the end. The Sunak team are already grumbling so maybe he can win on the second try but the membership were pretty unenthusiastic about him. Mordant would have been better imo to replace Boris, even though she is a lightweight. She is in cabinet and will have more of a profile so they can bring her in as a fresh face. Ben Wallace also would give good adult in the room vibes and is well liked so far but I don't know why he didn't run this time. I said it would be like the Fourth Labour Government in NZ bringing in Mike Moore, Wallace even looks similar. The membership could get in the way and elect Badenoch though.

[Pericles]

How the hell has Truss crashed the economy and investor confidence this fast? When Cummings referred to Truss as a human hand grenade, he was right on the money.

Cummings on Truss has turned out to be the ultimate case of... well..

He's often like that, he's actually a pretty smart guy but with a blindspot for his own flaws.

[Pericles]

Rishi Sunak's leadership prospects are greatly strengthened by Truss' policy platform being discredited, not just her political skills. He still has many liabilities so I'd say a Cabinet Minister is a better bet. Tory MPs should seriously look at having a coronation like in 2003, the membership can't be trusted with another vote and that process would further discredit the party. It is obviously pretty hard to see MPs being united enough to make that work though.

[Pericles]

Electoral reform is a diversion in the UK sadly, because I can't see the British people voting for it in a referendum. The recent two hung parliaments would make it extra easy to scare people away from it.

[Pericles]

Electoral reform is a diversion in the UK sadly, because I can't see the British people voting for it in a referendum. The recent two hung parliaments would make it extra easy to scare people away from it.

There doesn't need to be a referendum. Various changes to electoral systems (nationally, regionally and locally) have been implemented without referenda. All three referendums held at a UK level thus far (1975 EEC, 2011 AV and 2016 EU) were primarily to keep the government intact, rather than out of any direct democracy principle. 

Changing the electoral system is a major constitutional change that should be done through a referendum, otherwise it won't be accepted as legitimate. These issues are the ones that most need to be decided that way.

[Pericles]

Electoral reform is a diversion in the UK sadly, because I can't see the British people voting for it in a referendum. The recent two hung parliaments would make it extra easy to scare people away from it.

There doesn't need to be a referendum. Various changes to electoral systems (nationally, regionally and locally) have been implemented without referenda. All three referendums held at a UK level thus far (1975 EEC, 2011 AV and 2016 EU) were primarily to keep the government intact, rather than out of any direct democracy principle.  

Changing the electoral system is a major constitutional change that should be done through a referendum, otherwise it won't be accepted as legitimate. These issues are the ones that most need to be decided that way.

That's a fair point. People still regularly talk of the illegitimacy of the abolition of plural voting without a referendum in the late 1940s.

(No they don't, and never particularly did to my knowledge.)

It's not the 1940s, it is expected overseas and in the UK if it arises that this would be sent to a referendum. There would have been a majority of MPs plenty of times who opposed MMP here, but the electoral system has its own mandate from the people here and not from one individual election.

[Pericles]

Issue with a Boris restoration after a defeat is he'd lose his seat in almost any election resulting in a Labour government, nevermind the sort of cataclysm the Tories face now. Of course, I suppose he could move to a safer seat, but I'm not sure how likely that is.

Hilariously, his previous seat prior to becoming Mayor of London is projected to stay blue even in that wonderful LABOR NUT map back on page 24.

It's a Remain-voting seat where the LibDem vote surged by 16% in 2019, it would be a reach seat (Con+24%) but don't be too surprised if it flips. David Cameron's old seat is similar actually.

[Pericles]

Issue with a Boris restoration after a defeat is he'd lose his seat in almost any election resulting in a Labour government, nevermind the sort of cataclysm the Tories face now. Of course, I suppose he could move to a safer seat, but I'm not sure how likely that is.

Hilariously, his previous seat prior to becoming Mayor of London is projected to stay blue even in that wonderful LABOR NUT map back on page 24.

It's a Remain-voting seat where the LibDem vote surged by 16% in 2019, it would be a reach seat (Con+24%) but don't be too surprised if it flips. David Cameron's old seat is similar actually.

Or, you know, the Lib Dems could flip them...

That's what I meant.

[Pericles]

The Tories continue their long tradition of U-turns, this is even more damaging than Theresa May and the dementia tax.

[Pericles]

I'm starting to think Truss will probably be axed soon, at least before the end of 2023. If they have a full leadership election I think Badenoch is the heavy favorite, but an MP vote probably goes to Mordaunt (?) or (God forbid) BoJo 2.0

Maybe Mordaunt is making a play by saying benefits should rise with inflation, winking to MPs that she would be different from Trussonomics.

[Pericles]

We might even see another Christian Wakeford at this rate.

[Pericles]

How is Truss acting more ideologically, and less responsibly than Rees-Mogg? Refusing to approve a simple, comparatively cheap campaign to educate the public about saving energy, in the midst of a cost of living crisis, with looming gas shortages, just feels like ethical and political malpractice.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1578135758040403971

...what is she ideologically opposed to, PSAs?

The way it’s being described, Truss has engaged fully with the GOP-style “It’s not the governments job to tell you what to do” talking point, and is refusing to fund the campaign on that basis. The government source quoted in most articles about it explicitly say she thinks the campaign is too “interventionist”.

Johnson was said to have similar laissez faire instincts (there were apparently some fierce discussions about whether to lock-down over COVID, especially the first time), but could be won over if the argument was made well enough.

I see.

Perhaps Truss is just committing to the bit. This could be her big break in the improv comedy world.

She wasn't known as a Covid objector at the time, right? If anything it was Sunak who was described as the 'most dangerous man in Britain'. The idea of the UK having a worse pandemic doesn't bear thinking about tbh.

[Pericles]

Lmao, we love Boris the saboteur.

[Pericles]

This cabinet seems unusually weak on the collective responsibility front, Mordaunt's comments about uprating benefits are another example.

[Pericles]

F**kin' ay:

https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1580268039643070464

After the scare they got from Theresa May, they should have at least vetted for charisma. Ridiculous.

[Pericles]

F**kin' ay:

https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1580268039643070464

After the scare they got from Theresa May, they should have at least vetted for charisma. Ridiculous.

Truss is much, much worse on that front than May.

Exactly, why MPs who have their own jobs on the line let her be a candidate for PM is one of the stupidest decisions in recent British political history.

[Pericles]

A new round of austerity would be a complete disaster. This is a complete spit in the face to voters who were promised leveling up by Boris in 2019, who voted Tory for the first time. Labour has a huge clean-up job when they win, we need Starmer to go hard with tax increases, public services are already in a dire state there is no room for further austerity.

[Pericles]

Incidentally, whose bright idea was it to have a major economic statement on October 31st? Will the next one be on April 1st?

The Tories have a thing for this, Boris announced a lockdown on Halloween.

[Pericles]

If Hunt does calm the markets, then I don't think there is any urgency to removing Truss anymore. Obviously she can't lead the Tories into the next election, but they have got just under two years to make a change. She is a liability but the brand damage was caused by the market crash, her staying on for a few months does not make much difference for the eventual next Prime Minister. The party could then take its time to think through its options so it doesn't make another rash decision. Individual leadership contenders would also benefit from a delay so they can improve their own positions for the eventual contest.

[Pericles]

Johnson leading seems like a case of voters saying, "You're going to lose the next election anyway; please just put someone in who can do the job."

Nah, there are others capturing that lane. Johnson's support is "I don't look bad by comparison now, see?"

That said, in Johnson's ideal world he would come back a bit later than 1 month after his departure - memories still haven't fully vanished.

I think you’re on the money there. The loudest of the pro-Johnson voices in the media (see, for instance, Christopher Hope, of the Telegraph) envision Truss lasting until March, then being replaced by Johnson. The only people who really think you can go right back to Boris Johnson within one month of him leaving are a fraction of the party membership, and Nadine Dorries.

If that's the case, then Johnson should try delay the leadership contest and let Truss linger on. Personally, I don't think this lot of MPs would ever bring him back. He could come back as LOTO, but-while politics is volatile-going against a first term Labour government is a losing bet. He's not that old so it could happen even later, but I think he'd prefer getting rich off giving speeches and writing newspaper articles.

[Pericles]

A Labour wave in Scotland would be beautiful, especially when the SNP idiotically set their sights on getting 50% so they could somehow unilaterally secede from the UK. The SNP has utterly failed to earn that level of support, and their independence plots somehow manage to be even stupider than Brexit and the nonsense the UK government thinks up.