UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Greens essentially rule out Corbyn defecting to them:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JTMaclaren/status/1641137472435306497

Guess the project will get rebranded as a party?

[EastAnglianLefty]

The owner of the Guardian apologized for the role the paper's founders played in the transatlantic slave trade.

The owner of the Guardian has issued an apology for the role the newspaper’s founders had in transatlantic slavery and announced a decade-long programme of restorative justice.

The Scott Trust said it expected to invest more than £10m (US$12.3m, A$18.4m), with millions dedicated specifically to descendant communities linked to the Guardian’s 19th-century founders.

It follows independent academic research commissioned in 2020 to investigate whether there was any historical connection between chattel slavery and John Edward Taylor, the journalist and cotton merchant who founded the newspaper in 1821, and the other Manchester businessmen who funded its creation.

The Scott Trust Legacies of Enslavement report, published on Tuesday, revealed that Taylor, and at least nine of his 11 backers, had links to slavery, principally through the textile industry. Taylor had multiple links through partnerships in the cotton manufacturing firm Oakden & Taylor, and the cotton merchant company Shuttleworth, Taylor & Co, which imported vast amounts of raw cotton produced by enslaved people in the Americas.

It's one thing if there were actual investments in the abominable trade, but quite another if we're talking of a commercial relationship with the results. Those same mills will have employed local children, and will have used (both directly and indirection through e.g. iron and steel in the machinery) coal produced in very dangerous conditions and often, again, featuring children in the production process. Most of the factories will have had slate roofs, and the production of that was also notoriously exploitative at the time. Are we going to get 'apologies' for all that as well, given that there is no obvious moral distinction?

While we're at it, perhaps they could consider the current employment arrangements for subeditors at the paper itself.

[CumbrianLefty]

Greens essentially rule out Corbyn defecting to them:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JTMaclaren/status/1641137472435306497

Guess the project will get rebranded as a party?

After the Novara gang were getting so excited about this!

[Middle-aged Europe]

In sort of a cross German-UK news, I can announce that the King is here!

Charles III. is on tour in Germany and it confirms what I always suspected, that Germans deep down long for a monarchy too. Just not the one with the Kaiser and his weird facial hair, but a more democratic version. Like in Britain, you know.

I'm a bit flabbergasted by that development too, since I seem to remember that Charles used to be frequently mocked around here when he was still a prince.

Part of the new Charlesmania has been fueled by our media after they noticed that the King is more or less fluent in German, a talent which he seems to puts to good use on his visit. He also adressed the Bundestag in a part-German/part-English speech.... which was criticed by the Left Party, which came out as the most anti-monarchist political party in our parliament. They took offense that an "archaic" non-elected head of state was given such a privilege.

Charles also met with Olaf Scholz and then he started to eat himself through some organic food markets and organic farms in and around Berlin. Enjoy.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

b]Left Party, which came out as the most anti-monarchist political party in our parliament. They took offense that an "archaic" non-elected head of state was given such a privilege.
[/b]

Ultra-rare Left Party W

[GenerationTerrorist]

In sort of a cross German-UK news, I can announce that the King is here!

Charles III. is on tour in Germany and it confirms what I always suspected, that Germans deep down long for a monarchy too. Just not the one with the Kaiser and his weird facial hair, but a more democratic version. Like in Britain, you know.

I'm a bit flabbergasted by that development too, since I seem to remember that Charles used to be frequently mocked around here when he was still a prince.

Part of the new Charlesmania has been fueled by our media after they noticed that the King is more or less fluent in German, a talent which he seems to puts to good use on his visit. He also adressed the Bundestag in a part-German/part-English speech.... which was criticed by the Left Party, which came out as the most anti-monarchist political party in our parliament. They took offense that an "archaic" non-elected head of state was given such a privilege.

Charles also met with Olaf Scholz and then he started to eat himself through some organic food markets and organic farms in and around Berlin. Enjoy.

There has always been a bit of this love-hate relationship between our countries since "that thing" happened nearly 80 years ago. Plus the Football.

I have been to Germany a few times and think it is an amazing country. The German sense of self-depricating humour is also criminally underrated as far as I am concerned.

Hoping to pop over with a friend for a couple of Football weekends in Hamburg and Berlin before the end of the year.

[CumbrianLefty]

A reminder that traditionally Germans were Britain's allies, and the French the eternal enemy

[Middle-aged Europe]

The hype continues.... German Railway Instagram post: "When the king is customer"

[Blair]

I'm not a centrist dad (despite the username) so never actually loved his Times Column but this substack is a very funny take down of the weird narratives around the centre right & pundit class atm- including a lot of myths about '97 and Labour.

https://davidaaronovitch.substack.com/

[Torrain]

First Scottish polls with fieldwork during the Yousaf premiership:
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1641864017617510419
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1641866050080759822

[YL]

Cumbria County Council and all the district councils in Cumbria, North Yorkshire and Somerset have now been abolished, and replaced by unitary authorities; in the latter two counties the old county councils have become the new unitaries, while Cumbria is split into Cumberland and Westmorland & Furness along roughly the historic boundary of the county of Cumberland (it's not exactly the historic boundary: Penrith and some nearby areas, historically in Cumberland, go into Westmorland & Furness).

I still can't help feeling that the size of some of these new unitaries, especially the North Yorkshire one, is not very consistent with the idea that this is local government.

Elections for the new unitaries were already held last year: the Lib Dems control Somerset and Westmorland & Furness, the Tories North Yorkshire and Labour Cumberland.

[YL]

Ceremonial counties in England by local government type, as of today:



There could be more categories than this.  It's all a bit of a mess...

- That dot in the middle of London is the City, which is a separate ceremonial county, just because of course it is.
- Cornwall isn't classified as "whole county" because of Scilly having its own council.

[CumbrianLefty]

That weird extension of Bristol into the sea dates back to the 14th century.

[Torrain]

Brian spent the evening of March 31st at a Goth-Metal concert, then shook hands with the band (Germany's Eurovision entrants for this year, Lord of the Lost), providing some fantastic shots for the April 1st papers.

If that's not proof that the man has a sense of humour, I don't know what is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've never understood why the ceremonial counties aren't just the traditional ones. They have no administrative function so there's no need for them to match up with existing local authority boundaries and they exist for the purpose of flummery so it makes more sense for them to be as traditional as possible.

[Conservatopia]

Ceremonial counties in England by local government type, as of today:



There could be more categories than this.  It's all a bit of a mess...

- That dot in the middle of London is the City, which is a separate ceremonial county, just because of course it is.
- Cornwall isn't classified as "whole county" because of Scilly having its own council.

Breaking it down by ceremonial county makes it look more complex and messy than it really is. That's not to say that it's not a complete mess though.

The direction of travel under the Conservatives appears to be towards unitary authorities replacing all the county councils eventually. This is actually opposed by most grassroots Tories (not me though) because abolishing the district councils actually means the Conservatives lose a lot of councillors. The battles near here over the Somerset reform got quite ugly.

I'm not sure if Labour have given any indication on what direct they're going to take but I imagine they would follow broadly the same pattern, just perhaps consulting the councils in question a bit more than the Tories have tended to...

I'd like to see Starmer propose a big, nerdy, wonkish constitutional settlement covering everything from making local government uniform across the country to Lords reform to clarifying our relationship with the Crown Dependencies to solidifying the status of devolved government. No more tinkering with "one weird tricks" to provide solutions looking for a problem. Get the whole thing done all at once. He could go down in history then.

[Blair]

The three real elephants for local Government are the ridiculous number of services they're expected to provide, the complete lack of funding and the need to make being a councillor a full time job.

The Metro Mayor system has slightly begun to approach these issues but I feel a lot of discussion about local Government is a bit like moving armies that only exist on paper.

[Torrain]

A number of interesting things happening in Scottish politics this weekend:

• Forbes supporters threatening to organise into some sort of ERG-lite caucus with around 15 members, which would to publish policy papers supporting a more centre-right economic policy, and oppose Scottish Green policies adopted in the Bute House Agreement, such as the Deposit Return Scheme, expansion of the protected marine areas (which will lead to fishing bans in some politically sensitive coast seats) etc.
• The second poll of Yousaf's tenure has released (this time from Survation), showing the SNP only 4% ahead of Labour, in both regional and constituency Holyrood votes.
• Forbes has stated in an interview that she would have liked to stay on as Finance Secretary if possible. In the process, she's undermined Deputy FM Shona Robison, who made the claim Forbes "stepped back from cabinet because she wanted to spend more time with her family", and has sparked a briefing scuffle between the two former leadership candidates.
• Polling for the Times indicates that a majority of Scottish voters (51%) want Yousaf to drop plans to legally challenge Westminster's veto of the GRR bill, with the remaining 49% are pretty evenly split between full-throated support for the challenge, and desire for some sort of compromise legislation to be passed instead. As ever, the Times has a particular *thing* about this issue, so maybe take with a pinch of salt?
• The Scottish Conservatives have briefed that they plan to encourage unionist tactical voting to support Labour and remove SNP MPs at the next Westminster election. This has sparked a range of responses that range from "see Labour are Red Tories", to "lol, you just want an excuse for your vote totals collapsing in marginal seats".
• A man has been arrested for "suspicious behaviour" in the vicinity of Bute House, leading to fears of a potential threat against the new First Minister

[JimJamUK]

A number of interesting things happening in Scottish politics this weekend:

• Forbes supporters threatening to organise into some sort of ERG-lite caucus with around 15 members, which would to publish policy papers supporting a more centre-right economic policy, and oppose Scottish Green policies adopted in the Bute House Agreement, such as the Deposit Return Scheme, expansion of the protected marine areas (which will lead to fishing bans in some politically sensitive coast seats) etc.
• Forbes has stated in an interview that she would have liked to stay on as Finance Secretary if possible. In the process, she's undermined Deputy FM Shona Robison, who made the claim Forbes "stepped back from cabinet because she wanted to spend more time with her family", and has sparked a briefing scuffle between the two former leadership candidates.
• The Scottish Conservatives have briefed that they plan to encourage unionist tactical voting to support Labour and remove SNP MPs at the next Westminster election. This has sparked a range of responses that range from "see Labour are Red Tories", to "lol, you just want an excuse for your vote totals collapsing in marginal seats".

1. Lol.
2. Yeah, cos Forbes has just spent the last month making clear she wants to spend more time away from frontline politics.
3. The Tories were never going to properly campaign in the likes of Glasgow North East. Running dead somewhere like East Lothian matters more, and depending on the polling also constituencies like East Renfrewshire (it’s hard to imagine the Tories winning these sorts of seats back under current polling, but Labour won’t win either if the unionist vote is fairly evenly split). I can’t imagine the latter happening, which is what they should be doing if they really prioritise “unionist tactical voting”.

[Torrain]

3. The Tories were never going to properly campaign in the likes of Glasgow North East. Running dead somewhere like East Lothian matters more, and depending on the polling also constituencies like East Renfrewshire (it’s hard to imagine the Tories winning these sorts of seats back under current polling, but Labour won’t win either if the unionist vote is fairly evenly split). I can’t imagine the latter happening, which is what they should be doing if they really prioritise “unionist tactical voting”.

Aye. Seats like East Lothian will be very interesting (the presence of an Alba MP on the ballot could potentially siphon an important 500-1,000 votes, for example). Definitely think Labour have the chance to sweep their 2017 gains, and crack the SNP hold on Glasgow in general. The Central Belt will be full of interesting SNP-Labour matchups.

Personally, I'm perhaps most curious (this week at least!) about a different class of seats. There's a number of constituencies that were safe Labour or Lib Dem in 1997-2005/10, flipped SNP, and now have the Tories in a strong second place - constituencies like North Ayrshire and Arran, Lanark and Hamilton East, or Argyll and Bute for instance. What the heck happens there?

Do they end up as three-way marginals? Narrow or comfortable SNP wins? Do the pleas for tactical voting, and changed national environment give Labour a shot of winning, or turn off too many SNP-Labour swing voters to let them make up the gap?

[JimJamUK]

Aye. Seats like East Lothian will be very interesting (the presence of an Alba MP on the ballot could potentially siphon an important 500-1,000 votes, for example). Definitely think Labour have the chance to sweep their 2017 gains, and crack the SNP hold on Glasgow in general. The Central Belt will be full of interesting SNP-Labour matchups.

Personally, I'm perhaps most curious about a different class of seats though. There's a number of constituencies that were safe Labour or Lib Dem in 1997-2005/10, flipped SNP, and now have the Tories in a strong second place - constituencies like North Ayrshire and Arran, Lanark and Hamilton East, or Argyll and Bute for instance. What the heck happens there?

Do they end up as three-way marginals? Narrow SNP wins? Do the pleas for tactical voting, and changed national environment give Labour a shot of winning, or turn off too many SNP-Labour swing voters?

The Lib Dems look pretty out of contention in Argyll + Bute, so my assumption is that the SNP win on a heavily split field (God knows what order the other parties are in). Lanark + Hamilton East has enough residual Labour support that I would assume they will quite easily squeeze a lot of the Tory vote, whether it’s enough to win I’m not sure.

North Ayrshire and Arran is similar to East Renfrewshire, being seats where the Tories were clearly stronger in 2019 but which had Labour history and you’d expect on current polling couldn’t be won by the Tories but the SNP vote share will only be in the 30s. Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock is also in this bucket. In these seats how much campaigning the Tories and Labour do will matter a lot, as will any media narrative about Scotland being a Labour vs SNP battle.

Put it this way, whatever the past couple of elections say about a constituency, if in the 2024 general election the Tories are sub-20% and Labour are over 30%, then basically every urban/Central Belt constituency should see Labour outpolling the Tories, especially as the general election Labour vote has already been artificially squeezed by both the Tories and SNP in these places but remains stronger in local elections (with a lot of voters being willing to vote Labour in the right circumstances). 

[Torrain]

The Lib Dems look pretty out of contention in Argyll + Bute, so my assumption is that the SNP win on a heavily split field (God knows what order the other parties are in). Lanark + Hamilton East has enough residual Labour support that I would assume they will quite easily squeeze a lot of the Tory vote, whether it’s enough to win I’m not sure.

North Ayrshire and Arran is similar to East Renfrewshire, being seats where the Tories were clearly stronger in 2019 but which had Labour history and you’d expect on current polling couldn’t be won by the Tories but the SNP vote share will only be in the 30s. Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock is also in this bucket. In these seats how much campaigning the Tories and Labour do will matter a lot, as will any media narrative about Scotland being a Labour vs SNP battle.

Put it this way, whatever the past couple of elections say about a constituency, if in the 2024 general election the Tories are sub-20% and Labour are over 30%, then basically every urban/Central Belt constituency should see Labour outpolling the Tories, especially as the general election Labour vote has already been artificially squeezed by both the Tories and SNP in these places but remains stronger in local elections (with a lot of voters being willing to vote Labour in the right circumstances). 

Aye, that pretty much tracks. The Lib Dem coalition that used to deliver them rural Highland seats seems to have just dissolved, with the singular exception of Jamie Stone, who seems to cling on by the skin of his teeth each cycle. And aye - Labour should outpoll the Tories across the Central Belt if current polling holds, and they're leading the Tories by 10-15%.

Partially just curious about whether seats like Argyll and Bute are potential "reach seats" for the Conservatives in the following few cycles (under a Tory leader palatable to Scots, like 2017 Theresa May) - or whether they've missed their chance, and Labour become the defacto "not-SNP" party again after a recovery (even a modest one) next year. Lots of these places were quite comfortable for the Tories pre-1997, and as we've seen in 2017, those ancestral voting patterns seem to still hold some sway - particularly in the rural, farming parts of Scotland.

Tbh - most of this is feels uber-hypothetical right now. It feels like the rules of political gravity change with every election up here, so until we have some consistent polling, I'm just enjoying the chance to speculate about what's next.

[JimJamUK]

The Lib Dems look pretty out of contention in Argyll + Bute, so my assumption is that the SNP win on a heavily split field (God knows what order the other parties are in). Lanark + Hamilton East has enough residual Labour support that I would assume they will quite easily squeeze a lot of the Tory vote, whether it’s enough to win I’m not sure.

North Ayrshire and Arran is similar to East Renfrewshire, being seats where the Tories were clearly stronger in 2019 but which had Labour history and you’d expect on current polling couldn’t be won by the Tories but the SNP vote share will only be in the 30s. Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock is also in this bucket. In these seats how much campaigning the Tories and Labour do will matter a lot, as will any media narrative about Scotland being a Labour vs SNP battle.

Put it this way, whatever the past couple of elections say about a constituency, if in the 2024 general election the Tories are sub-20% and Labour are over 30%, then basically every urban/Central Belt constituency should see Labour outpolling the Tories, especially as the general election Labour vote has already been artificially squeezed by both the Tories and SNP in these places but remains stronger in local elections (with a lot of voters being willing to vote Labour in the right circumstances). 

Aye, that pretty much tracks. The Lib Dem coalition that used to deliver them rural Highland seats seems to have just dissolved, with the singular exception of Jamie Stone, who seems to cling on by the skin of his teeth each cycle. And aye - Labour should outpoll the Tories across the Central Belt if current polling holds, and they're leading the Tories by 10-15%.

Partially just curious about whether seats like Argyll and Bute are potential "reach seats" for the Conservatives in the following few cycles (under a Tory leader palatable to Scots, like 2017 Theresa May) - or whether they've missed their chance, and Labour become the defacto "not-SNP" party again after a recovery (even a modest one) next year. Lots of these places were quite comfortable for the Tories pre-1997, and as we've seen in 2017, those ancestral voting patterns seem to still hold some sway - particularly in the rural, farming parts of Scotland.

Tbh - most of this is feels uber-hypothetical right now. It feels like the rules of political gravity change with every election up here, so until we have some consistent polling, I'm just enjoying the chance to speculate about what's next.

Completely agree, it’s not like there’s much doubt about which party would win Argyll and Bute (or pretty much all of the Tory held/realistic target seats) if it were in England or even Wales, and the Tories would have won it in 2017 without the Lib Dems residual vote (there aren’t many Scottish seats where the Tory vote went UP in 2019). The difficulty for the Conservatives is that 2017 looks like it might be their high point, and as we saw in 2019 there’s no guarantee that a squeeze on the Labour vote will necessarily go to them rather than the SNP.

The Scottish Labour Party is a shadow of its former self, but their vote distribution is good enough that they could win a dozen or more seats on current polling (they would very likely win more than the SNP if they drew level), and once they reestablish themselves as Scotlands 2nd party they will win back a bit more of the soft unionist/anti-SNP vote, particularly in specific constituencies (an overlooked factor of the past few election is soft Labour voters viewing Labour as now irrelevant in their constituency and switching their vote accordingly).

And yeah, this is all speculation by us, there’s a not-insignificant chance the SNP vote crashes enough and the Tory vote modestly recovers to the point that the latter make some freak gains on mid 30s vote shares (it’s not like the rural SNP vote is all a bunch of closet Labour supporters, and Yousaf is an awful match for these sorts of voters).

[Joe Republic]

We truly are reliving the mid-1990s:

The Daily Mail reported that the incident happened in the later period of Boris Johnson’s time as prime minister, and it began when an unnamed Tory MP woke up a senior Conservative politician with a call at 4 a.m. The MP was described as “woozy-sounding” while telling his colleague “I’m in a brothel.”

“I don’t know how I got here,” the MP said, “and I can’t find my clothes.”

The Mail reported that they corroborated the story with a Tory source, though they couldn’t name names from the call. The development reportedly prompted new conversations in Parliament about toxic behavior and work culture among the United Kingdom’s top officials.

[Oryxslayer]

The Lib Dems look pretty out of contention in Argyll + Bute, so my assumption is that the SNP win on a heavily split field (God knows what order the other parties are in). Lanark + Hamilton East has enough residual Labour support that I would assume they will quite easily squeeze a lot of the Tory vote, whether it’s enough to win I’m not sure.

North Ayrshire and Arran is similar to East Renfrewshire, being seats where the Tories were clearly stronger in 2019 but which had Labour history and you’d expect on current polling couldn’t be won by the Tories but the SNP vote share will only be in the 30s. Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock is also in this bucket. In these seats how much campaigning the Tories and Labour do will matter a lot, as will any media narrative about Scotland being a Labour vs SNP battle.

Put it this way, whatever the past couple of elections say about a constituency, if in the 2024 general election the Tories are sub-20% and Labour are over 30%, then basically every urban/Central Belt constituency should see Labour outpolling the Tories, especially as the general election Labour vote has already been artificially squeezed by both the Tories and SNP in these places but remains stronger in local elections (with a lot of voters being willing to vote Labour in the right circumstances). 

Aye, that pretty much tracks. The Lib Dem coalition that used to deliver them rural Highland seats seems to have just dissolved, with the singular exception of Jamie Stone, who seems to cling on by the skin of his teeth each cycle. And aye - Labour should outpoll the Tories across the Central Belt if current polling holds, and they're leading the Tories by 10-15%.

Partially just curious about whether seats like Argyll and Bute are potential "reach seats" for the Conservatives in the following few cycles (under a Tory leader palatable to Scots, like 2017 Theresa May) - or whether they've missed their chance, and Labour become the defacto "not-SNP" party again after a recovery (even a modest one) next year. Lots of these places were quite comfortable for the Tories pre-1997, and as we've seen in 2017, those ancestral voting patterns seem to still hold some sway - particularly in the rural, farming parts of Scotland.

Tbh - most of this is feels uber-hypothetical right now. It feels like the rules of political gravity change with every election up here, so until we have some consistent polling, I'm just enjoying the chance to speculate about what's next.

Completely agree, it’s not like there’s much doubt about which party would win Argyll and Bute (or pretty much all of the Tory held/realistic target seats) if it were in England or even Wales, and the Tories would have won it in 2017 without the Lib Dems residual vote (there aren’t many Scottish seats where the Tory vote went UP in 2019). The difficulty for the Conservatives is that 2017 looks like it might be their high point, and as we saw in 2019 there’s no guarantee that a squeeze on the Labour vote will necessarily go to them rather than the SNP.

The Scottish Labour Party is a shadow of its former self, but their vote distribution is good enough that they could win a dozen or more seats on current polling (they would very likely win more than the SNP if they drew level), and once they reestablish themselves as Scotlands 2nd party they will win back a bit more of the soft unionist/anti-SNP vote, particularly in specific constituencies (an overlooked factor of the past few election is soft Labour voters viewing Labour as now irrelevant in their constituency and switching their vote accordingly).

And yeah, this is all speculation by us, there’s a not-insignificant chance the SNP vote crashes enough and the Tory vote modestly recovers to the point that the latter make some freak gains on mid 30s vote shares (it’s not like the rural SNP vote is all a bunch of closet Labour supporters, and Yousaf is an awful match for these sorts of voters).

I'm just also going to add here that voting behaver among Unionist party types have had 10 years to normalize to tactical voting at its now showing on all levels. Not every voter does of course. Labour rebounding will absolutely squeeze the Tories in the central belt and with SNP swings they'll make gains. This is where the most seats are so yeah, its why the Tories have lost votes overall in Scottish polling.

A more peculiar situation may play out in the areas that are clearly now Tory though: the Northeast, Borders, and a few other scattered areas. SNP -> Lab voters won't be voting tactically, but if Labour's base in these areas is still going Tory to defeat the SNP then the swinging voters might push the SNP total below the essentially static Tory vote.